Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Media Outlets Mislead Readers about COVID-19 Data
By A. G. Hamilton
May 7, 2020

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The public overwhelmingly relies on the press to provide them with accurate information and proper context. When it comes to COVID-19, many press outlets are consistently failing to do that. In fact, the reporting on data related to the epidemic has increasingly led to conclusions that aren’t accurate and an audience that is misinformed.

The perfect example was an article from The Hill that told readers Texas was seeing “thousands of new coronavirus cases days after state’s stay-at-home order lifted.” Seems rather obvious that The Hill started with a view that moving into a re-opening phase is a mistake and things are getting worse, and then looked for a way to support that conclusion. This claim managed to mislead readers in two key ways:

(1) Given the incubation period and a lag in testing, new cases that are identified on a certain day are unlikely to have any relationship to policies implemented days earlier.

(2) “New cases” is a very misleading metric because it does not account for increases in testing. The rate of positive tests in Texas has declined significantly.

Mainstream outlets have attempted to tie new cases and deaths to recent re-opening actions in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, despite it being clear that any spike in cases or deaths would not be apparent for weeks after such policy changes. Such actions could lead to a spike in new cases, but trying to tie them to those seen right now is clearly incorrect.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-media-outlets-mislead-readers-about-covid-19-data/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=top-bar-latest&utm_term=third

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

I'm in an addiction program. We still meet via Zoom and audio.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pa. had early plan to protect nursing homes from the coronavirus, but never fully implemented it

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2020/05/pennsylvania-coronavirus-nursing-homes-plan-quick-strike-teams/

To put it very politely, that effing response sux the big one. I think that there needs to be a management shake up in Pennsylvania.

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

RJ - I suspect you are joking about the taxes.....

That said. When I lived in the UK my tax return was about 11 pages.....back here it is about an inch and a half of paper.

I was volunteering with the AARP tax prep program before this hit. Lot's of people living on the edge (financially). It always felt good when a person had a decent pension. Really made me smile when a young guy (under 25) came in with docs where he had 401k deductions....someone planning.

So - as an ad - free tax prep from the AARP if you make less than $300k per year.....

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The 1957 flu that killed one million people

In 1957 a new strain of avian flu emerged in East Asia and quickly spread around the world, killing at least one million people.

Sumi Krishna was nine years old when she caught the virus in India.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/stories-52582124/the-1957-flu-that-killed-one-million-people

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Yes, yes! Less emphysema deaths AND we are meeting our Paris Accord goals! Why, it's a Godsend I tell you!


Oh, Sweet, Sweet Gaia, we beseech you. Please use your powers to deliver us from our illegitimate, anti-scientific leaders who were elected by Russian hacking. You know what to do. And bring us love, harmony and economic justice by spreading the wealth around and putting all oil companies and airlines out of business (but leave us our G-5's for the Davos Summit). Amen!

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

State Ready To Pay Assisted Living Facilities To Take Coronavirus Patients

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/may/06/state-will-pay-assisted-living-coronavirus/

California is the state.

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ORIGINAL: Wuffer

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Germany and Denmark remain considerably beneath the 1.0 threshold (.79 and .86, respectively). Denmark began easing on April 15. German around April 26.

Wish that would be still the case...
But no, it's ~ 1.1 here in Germany again.
Not sure if the relaxing alone was responsible - imho it's unfortunately the behaviour of this very special species of apes: as soon as the first restrictions were lifted, not everyone but too many idiots switched back in their old behaviour.

A friend is reopening his restaurant under chaotic regulations and give it at maximum two to three months until the next forced lockdown (which will end his business for ever). Only reservations, guests had to arrive in time and no more then 10 min late, had to registrate personallity including the exact chair and are forced to leave after 1 1/2 hour. Exactly like in the old GDR...

It's the people. If only once in while a volunteer would die in the middle of zhe street to confrontate the plebs with potentiel consequences.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Funny, in a sad kind of way.

California pol tweets ‘F–k Elon Musk’ after announcement to move Tesla

https://nypost.com/2020/05/10/california-pol-tweets-f-k-elon-musk-amid-plans-to-move-tesla/

Tesla has 7,000 workers in China with no deaths, at least according to WSJ. Shortage components are believed to be behind a shutdown there.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/tesla-abruptly-suspends-car-production-at-chinese-factory

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Folks - please tone it down. We all share an interest in the Pacific War, and while we obviously have different political views, we are better than getting into name calling and attacks. According to BBC it is a nice day in London (and hopefully the rest of the UK). It has stopped snowing here in NY. Let's get our walking canes out and go outside, away from computers and TVs......

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.

Doubtful.

He is caught between a rock and a hard place and there is no easy solutions.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

I'm in an addiction program. We still meet via Zoom and audio.

The programs around here, which usually met at churches, do this too, but there is of course reduced attendance and I feel it can't be as effective over the computer as in person.

Plus now I suspect it is hard to drop into a different group easily.

Yep - the in person part is important (IMO). I am not a particularly high risk category person, and video seems to work better than audio in my experience. But the 'at risk' in the mental health community is clearly stressing based on what I have heard/seen firsthand.

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ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Folks - please tone it down. We all share an interest in the Pacific War, and while we obviously have different political views, we are better than getting into name calling and attacks. According to BBC it is a nice day in London (and hopefully the rest of the UK). It has stopped snowing here in NY. Let's get our walking canes out and go outside, away from computers and TVs......

Oh come on fcooke! It's a bar fight. I'm a gonna wade in and swing my cane about and maybe whack a few folks upside the head. This whole shindig is makin' me feel young again and full of piss-and-vinegar! Heck - afterwards I might even splurge and side up to the bar and get me a Shirley Temple!

(Totally tongue-in-cheek)

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ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


I thought the whole intent of the lockdown was to prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed. It was never the intent to eliminate to stop COVID-19 - nearly slow it down so we have an opportunity to deal with it using our current resources. Near as I can tell, unless they come up with a vaccine, we are kinda stuck with the "Boomer Disease."

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.

Doubtful.

He is caught between a rock and a hard place and there is no easy solutions.

I am sure that there are building that could be adapted instead of putting people into existing facilities. Think of a motel or hotel, how much business does it currently have? Or if has recently closed and is not in need of major repairs? those would be better places to open for the Covid-19 patients.

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ORIGINAL: Alfred

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ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Folks - please tone it down. We all share an interest in the Pacific War, and while we obviously have different political views, we are better than getting into name calling and attacks. According to BBC it is a nice day in London (and hopefully the rest of the UK). It has stopped snowing here in NY. Let's get our walking canes out and go outside, away from computers and TVs......

Oh come on fcooke! It's a bar fight. I'm a gonna wade in and swing my cane about and maybe whack a few folks upside the head. This whole shindig is makin' me feel young again and full of piss-and-vinegar! Heck - afterwards I might even splurge and side up to the bar and get me a Shirley Temple!

(Totally tongue-in-cheek)

Anyone who orders a Shirley Temple should get an automatic 3 month ban from the forum for being underage to post.

Alfred

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Got it. Sorry if I misunderstood your thinking..


I'm not sure what you mean.

The written word is very hard to communicate effectively with.

There obviously has been a lot of work done on modeling diseases and their impact on healthcare. However, Ferguson himself says he never thought a lockdown would be initiated in today's world. It was outside of his comprehension.

There was, to my mind, never an analysis of what the effects of a lockdown could be in the rush to prevent a medical collapse the goal was deemed so important as to justify almost any decision. Nothing ever operates in a vacuum, and the law of unintended consequences always rule while another law was broken.

When I was taking a Statistical Class in school long ago, there was a book...about the law of averages. It was a horror story, about what would happen to the world if the law of averages would be broken. And the world pretty much runs on the law of averages...it is in everything we do.

The Lockdown broke the law of averages. What it's outcome will be is absolutely uncertain except to say that the speed of change has accelerated to unbelievable levels.

Just the other day, Gov Cuomo of New York told reporters not to trust the numbers. Wise advice.

I guess I think back to other times and places where a catastrophe has broken systems down. Wars. Famine. Genocide. Financial Crisis. Natural Disaster. Sometimes those went on for a good long time in a specific place, sometimes across the entire planet.

In history so far we've always been able to put things back together, and sometimes quite quickly after a big problem.

If these lockdowns are short enough to just get cases low, begin opening and keep Ro manageable, I think things will gradually get better in a positive feedback loop. The credit system hasn't broken yet, markets are still functioning, if limping, and people in areas with measures in place so far seem able to get enough food, medicine and medical help to get through this first bit.

I'm in the optimistic camp. I think the economy will recover this year and if a second wave can be avoided in the fall, even unemployment will bounce back soon to under 10%. Some businesses will fail, but others will start. Some big businesses (Amazon) will get bigger. Some very rich will get richer. I do hope though that the most vulnerable people on the lowest end of the employment ladder will be able to make ends meet and get jobs. My worry is for those people.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

State Ready To Pay Assisted Living Facilities To Take Coronavirus Patients

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/may/06/state-will-pay-assisted-living-coronavirus/

California is the state.

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Maybe he wants to both increase the death rate to keep the lockdown going, and to eliminate the vulnerable people who use so many state resources. I am sure that some greedy people, if they have immunity, will take the Covid-19 patients.

Doubtful.

He is caught between a rock and a hard place and there is no easy solutions.

I am sure that there are building that could be adapted instead of putting people into existing facilities. Think of a motel or hotel, how much business does it currently have? Or if has recently closed and is not in need of major repairs? those would be better places to open for the Covid-19 patients.

Not so easy to repurpose. Start with carpet being very bad for sterility. Add the lack of separate ventilation for each room. Oxygen? There aren't enough O2 bottles to equip each room and I am not sure ventilators can use them anyway. Power for all the medical devices - heart monitors, ventilators, etc. Enough room around the bed for equipment and a team of medics?

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ORIGINAL: Alfred

Too many economic illiterate people posting in this thread.

Income will not quickly recover fully and that will directly feed into suppressing aggregate demand.

1.  Some parts of the economy will witnessed an explosion in inventory numbers.  Two major ones are oil and aircraft.

The reason why oil futures recently went into negative te4rritory was not primarily due to production but a lack of oil storage facilities.  The substantial downturn in oil demand combined with the continued production means that oil inventories are high.  People forget that the northern summer season witnesses a drop in oil demand so they're aren't coming down soon.  Even the total collapse of the North American fracking industry won't bring supply into equilibrium with demand.

There will be airline collapses, it is just a matter of time.  Even without them, there is an absolute glut of parked aircraft.  It costs a lot of money every single day to have a parked aircraft.  This will result in two bad outcomes.  It will see the market for new aircraft destroyed as everyone will be trying to off load their parked aircraft.  Very bad news for Boeing and Airbus and all their component supplies.  The employment knock on effect will be huge.  Nor will the aircraft leasing companies come through unscathed.

2.  The airline downturn will not just be the result of the collapse of international air travel for the foreseeable future, it directly disrupts the supply chain.  It isn't just international tourists who are aren't going anywhere and that has very significant employment and income repercussions on many economies, international air freight is largely kaput too.  That has serious repercussions on trade and production which of course reduces international income.

3.  Even were the lockdowns totally removed today, most companies are going to experience a minimum of 2 quarters ( the past quarter and the current quarter) of depressed earnings.  My money is that  earnings will not recover before Q4 in 2021.  At some stage, the depressed earnings will result in reduced dividends.  that will have repercussions on 401 schemes and shareholder incomes.

4.  Most business fixed costs are still incurred during the lockdown.  Lost business income is just that, lost.  Removal of lockdowns will, at the absolute best if one is an optimist, see demand recover to former levels.  It wont exceed past levels which leaves a significant period with lost demand.  Those inventories will take some time to reduce, and then by reducing forward orders to producers.  Again diminishing future income levels.

Government budgets, ahh I won't even touch them now but there is a world of future pain being stored up.

Alfred 

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

State Ready To Pay Assisted Living Facilities To Take Coronavirus Patients

https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/may/06/state-will-pay-assisted-living-coronavirus/

California is the state.

This looks ridiculous. So far it has seemed CA was doing well and making solid decisions. There have to be other ways to care for these patients than to put other very vulnerable people in danger. Isn't isloation the idea.

How about paying that money to a small hotel in each area and booking out all of the rooms, hiring a few attendants from laid off medical professionals, and putting reasonable numbers thee until they again test negative? Is it really so hard to find another way to take care of these people?

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe


It is a question of perspective.

My mother-in-law, if she was still alive, would have slapped you for suggesting that we were able to put things back together quickly...with respect to the great depression or the inflation of the 70s. Reuse, repair or do without, and sometime in the 70s she added recycle. A mindset that is totally alien to almost everyone alive today in the US.

Nothing wrong with being an optimist.