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1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/14/2020 12:50:47 PM   
HamburgerMeat

 

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Cpuncher and I have been testing the strength of the 1940 USSR invasion and ways to beat it. In terms of trying to slow down german land forces, things have been going as well as they possibly could:

Two panzers destroyed in France, and France held until the end of May 1940 (UK brought everything they could to France);
Three panzers destroyed in USSR, two of them before 1941, and one of them with less than 6 supply;
One tactical bomber destroyed in 1940 (extremely lucky, it retreated into the range of two USSR light cruisers in the black sea);
One experienced army destroyed with less than 5 supply.

In a game with a 1941 invasion, this would likely already be game over for the axis, as they cannot usually afford such losses. However, the strength of the German infantry, who are mostly between 1 to 2 stars worth of experience, chew through anything the Russians can put up. It is September 1941 and axis forces are at the gates of Moscow and Rostov. USSR forces are stretched to their absolute limits. Even after receiving max convoys from the UK almost every single turn and with industrial tech level 3, the USSR only has 24 ground units left, while Germany has 64 and Italy has 19.

Although the axis used diplomacy with Bulgaria to avoid the USA mobilization script, I don't think that it would have mattered. The US did not start lend lease until July 1941, and they probably would have joined around November/December 1941. That is still not enough time.

While I agree with Cpuncher that this 1940 USSR strategy is nice in the sense that it forces the Allied player to stay honest and focus on defending France, I do not think this strategy is beatable long as the axis player is skilled.

Possible solutions:

1) Buff France: for awhile now, most axis players operate their forces over to Belgium after conquering Poland, upgrade, then start the invasion on axis turn 4. France should never recruit the republican engineers as there is not enough time, and the heavy tanks never come out in time.
2) Greater USA mobilization for early Axis invasion (kind of a lazy fix, but maybe could be enough to deter)
3) Buff USSR - personally I am against this option as I think that the USSR is powerful enough in terms of a 1941 invasion.
4) Revert the Norway change - very much against this, but it would lower German MPPs.

I am interested to hear Cpuncher's thoughts on this.

Post #: 1
RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/14/2020 3:07:09 PM   
Tulius Hostilius

 

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Is this balance for pbem, for the AI, or both?

I am not experienced in pbem, but against the AI it seems reasonably balanced.

(in reply to HamburgerMeat)
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RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/14/2020 3:17:22 PM   
HamburgerMeat

 

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PBEM. Havent tried it against AI, but the AI is strategically limited so it can always be defeated

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RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/14/2020 3:50:37 PM   
ThunderLizard11

 

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May '40 seems early for France to collapse. How many units other than BEF did UK bring into France?

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RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/14/2020 4:08:21 PM   
HamburgerMeat

 

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Assuming that Germany operates most of its forces on axis turn 2, then France usually falls in March or April 1940.

Allies brought the WDF, purchased an anti-tank unit on turn 1, and brought all carriers to France.

I suppose that the allies could have brought the corp from Egypt as well, though that additional corp woudln't have been enough.

The only other plausible one I can think of is the South African corp that starts at 5 strength, but that depends on when South Africa joins the war.

< Message edited by HamburgerMeat -- 5/14/2020 4:09:44 PM >

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RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/14/2020 5:02:10 PM   
Tulius Hostilius

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HamburgerMeat

PBEM. Havent tried it against AI, but the AI is strategically limited so it can always be defeated


True, even if it is hard to save France.

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RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/14/2020 9:34:41 PM   
Cpuncher

 

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First I have to say it wasn't easy for Axis. Ham has absolutely stretched the Germans to their limits. Against Ham I'm spending twice as much time trying to plan each turn thoroughly. At one time I thought Germans had lost, after Zhukov/Ham deleted 2 near full strength Panzers in one turn, a repeat of what he did in France. Basically the outcome will still largely depend on player skills and mistakes. A less skilled player will still not able to win with the 1940 invasion against a better player.

This game is like 2 players on 2 sides of a sharp peak, once 1 side gains any advantage, it will only be enlarged and easier to gain more advantage. A player who can beat the AI comfortably as Axis can probably be beaten by an advanced player as Allies without the involvement of any US or USSR units. I'm saying this to point out the difficulty in balancing the game perfectly.

Between 2 good players May seems to be the likely time to lose France, if the Axis make every effort to start the war west ASAP. June is possible if Allies throw every last bit of its resources there. The engineer never has time to build any fort, and the H Tank may never show up or just in time to witness the fall of Paris. These 2 units definitely need to be available a couple turns earlier. Though there is a danger of over-strength the French. At least a third of my opponents were never able to take Paris and usually resigned late 1940.

So Axis needs 1 turn to reinforce and 1 to operate to west, and starts invading USSR in Aug 1940. If this causes the 20-25% US mobilization I'd think the game will be reasonably balanced. As the Germans still need until early 1942 to capture the Russian southern oil fields, while with the mobilization, US is going to be in the 80% range in Mid 1941 and no longer advantageous for the Japs to wait. Then it's up to the Allied player in how fast he can bring his forces into western Europe to save Russia. Of course this feels the job is more difficult for the Allied side. Also right now the US mobilization can easily be avoided.

Playing the 1940 USSR invasion is like playing early Rush in those real time strategy games. You spend everything on units and almost nothing on Tech. You try to beat your opponent quickly, but if you fail then you will likely be done. So it's a high risk high reward thing and should be kept as a possible strategy for the game.

I don't think the US mobilization is a good way to balance this. I wonder if it is possible to give a NM penalty to the wehrmacht should they start another major war, say, within 6 months of conquering France. Historically I just think it's not possible for Germany to be ready to attack Russia in 1940. So an event script for "wehrmacht not ready..." that gives a 10-20K NM penalty will probably be enough to balance things out, while keeping the choice of the 1940 invasion alive, just make it harder. I really don't like the current US mobilization fix, as it just make the game "tastes" bad, let alone more US mobilization.





< Message edited by Cpuncher -- 5/14/2020 10:31:44 PM >

(in reply to HamburgerMeat)
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RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/15/2020 1:06:25 AM   
HamburgerMeat

 

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Every USSR first strategy is mostly about spending more on units than on tech. What makes this one different is that it probably unbeatable between two equally-skilled players who are intermediate or above.

You say you have to sacrifice techs, but what more techs do the Germans need for a USSR-first strategy other than the following:

Infantry weapons
Advanced Tanks
Artillery Weapons (Germans start with a chit)
Ground attack weapons
C&C (Germans start with a chit)
S&I (Germans start with a chit)
Industrial tech (Germans start with a chit)

You don't really even need advanced aircraft, though it is probably recommended if you can spare it.

And it is not just about making the Axis spend MPPs to rebuild their units. The loss of their best offensive, most experienced units should significantly slow down the Axis advance, as it takes time to rebuild them, precious time that's not being spent on the offensive. But the main power of this attack comes from using axis infantry weapons advantage for as long as possible, on top of gaining a lot of experience. Destroying the axis spearhead multiple times would absolutely cripple a 1941 invasion, as you lose the precious time you have before the Russians match your infantry weapons level. But in a 1940 invasion, due to the infantry weapons/experience/morale discrepancy, the Germans simply keep trucking along. You say that you are stretched thin as well, but you outnumber USSR forces x4, and all of your forces have high experience due to two years of nonstop combat.

You also say that this game is like "is like 2 players on 2 sides of a sharp peak, once 1 side gains any advantage, it will only be enlarged and easier to gain more advantage." While this is generally true, the 1940 invasion between two similarly skilled players makes it impossible for the USSR to gain momentum, as evidenced by the lack of effect destroying 5 panzers, 1 TAC, and 1 army had.

I'm simply not sure what more the allies could have done in this game (with the exception of the naval game, which you absolutely smashed me in). I broke the Axis speartip without overextending, but it simply did not matter. I don't think you can reasonably call this balanced. Even if the US joins the war earlier, the best they can do is land in mid to late 1942. By that time, the Axis will be in Kuybyshev, which means they are a stones throw away from Perm. All the axis have to do is operate some corps and a 3-star HQ (of which axis should have plenty) over to the west. The green Americans will have a hell of a time taking down a 2-star corp, trust me. Even if the western allies liberate France, there is not enough time to seriously threaten the German heartland/Berlin.

I do not know how much 10k-20k national morale is in terms of percentages, but based on this info from the guide I don't think that this will make a significant difference:

§§ If National Morale < 40% then Unit Morale is multiplied by 0.85.
§§ If National Morale < 75% then Unit Morale is multiplied by 0.90.
§§ If National Morale < 95% then Unit Morale is multiplied by 0.95.
§§ If National Morale > 110% then Unit Morale is multiplied by 1.10.

So if it drops German national morale to <95%, that's like half of an infantry warfare upgrade. I doubt it would be noticeable.

I was thinking of maybe adding a penalty to the Germans for attacking Belgium/Netherlands/France too soon, but I am not sure what one would tie that to since we can't simply use time according to Bill in the other thread. And if the Germans can't take France that sounds like a pretty big skill difference ;)


< Message edited by HamburgerMeat -- 5/18/2020 12:55:22 PM >

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Post #: 8
RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/15/2020 2:43:37 PM   
Elessar2


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I'm currently trying this strategy against the AI, just to see how viable it is economically & time-wise. Close to 2 full turns of income were spent operating all of my key units back west. Yeah, I'll get most of that back with the early conquests of the Low Countries [Netherlands was toast by the end of November, knocking on the gates of Brussels in December.]

The one thing I am pretty sure about is that you will need the Weather Gods on your side to make it all work.

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RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 5/15/2020 3:45:45 PM   
HamburgerMeat

 

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As long as you can get your infantry units in range to attack USSR forces the following turn, you should be good. Use of force marching should overcome most problems with the mud. German morale is so high that they can usually perform well even after force marching.

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RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 6/1/2020 7:26:15 PM   
JJU57

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HamburgerMeat

Assuming that Germany operates most of its forces on axis turn 2, then France usually falls in March or April 1940.

Allies brought the WDF, purchased an anti-tank unit on turn 1, and brought all carriers to France.

I suppose that the allies could have brought the corp from Egypt as well, though that additional corp woudln't have been enough.

The only other plausible one I can think of is the South African corp that starts at 5 strength, but that depends on when South Africa joins the war.


That is so dependent on weather. Rain in Fall and snow during the Axis turn and no way they fall that early.

(in reply to HamburgerMeat)
Post #: 11
RE: 1940 USSR invasion balance - 6/1/2020 9:07:15 PM   
ElvisJJonesRambo


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Who's defending France when it falls in May? Come on, sounds a little weak. Wait, Allied player is doing the cookie cutter, butter defense of France and buying all Air and no naval. So maybe there is balance already, put some effort on the ground with B.E.F.

(in reply to JJU57)
Post #: 12
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