Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Even though I am at risk at work I have to admit I am getting damn tired of some slicked-back-hair guy in Sacramento telling me what beach I can walk on.

I am flying up to Bozeman, Montana in 2 weeks for some float trips on the Madison and maybe fish in Yellowstone too. And I'm not going to wear a mask standing hip deep in a river. I predict I will not be arrested in Montana.

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Even though I am at risk at work I have to admit I am getting damn tired of some slicked-back-hair guy in Sacramento telling me what beach I can walk on.

I am flying up to Bozeman, Montana in 2 weeks for some float trips on the Madison and maybe fish in Yellowstone too. And I'm not going to wear a mask standing hip deep in a river. I predict I will not be arrested in Montana.

to my neck of the woods, welcome Cap.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Even though I am at risk at work I have to admit I am getting damn tired of some slicked-back-hair guy in Sacramento telling me what beach I can walk on.

I am flying up to Bozeman, Montana in 2 weeks for some float trips on the Madison and maybe fish in Yellowstone too. And I'm not going to wear a mask standing hip deep in a river. I predict I will not be arrested in Montana.

to my neck of the woods, welcome Cap.

How high are the rivers running?

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Even though I am at risk at work I have to admit I am getting damn tired of some slicked-back-hair guy in Sacramento telling me what beach I can walk on.

I am flying up to Bozeman, Montana in 2 weeks for some float trips on the Madison and maybe fish in Yellowstone too. And I'm not going to wear a mask standing hip deep in a river. I predict I will not be arrested in Montana.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

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Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.

https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-stories/modeling-covid-19-minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

This is another good article about people with expertise stepping up to work through the day and night to help figure this out. Hats off to them for this work.

I also love that this is going these reserchers a chance to continue to work with new inputs and a better understanding as this develops to fine tune the tools they've created.

That is certainly one way of looking at it. Another might be to look at the relationship between ICU patients and confirmed cases.

Mid April there were 100 COVID patients in an ICU status with approx. 1,800 confirmed cases. A month later there are 200 COVID patients in ICU with 13,000 confirmed cases. With more testing the relationship between positive cases and ICU cases is likely to drop. Yet they are now projecting an increase to 3,600 ventilator cases over the next 8 weeks.

They are predicting 1700 deaths by end of May, 29,000 deaths for 12 months. They are according to worldometers at 672. Interesting to note, and sad, nursing home deaths account for 80%.

Also interesting that the model assumed an 80% compliance rate with the lockdown, but they just reported that there is about a 36% compliance. How that is measured I don't know...cell phone tracking perhaps? 36 is an awfully specific number.

I will give kudos to MN for releasing the model publicly, but it took them until yesterday to do it..

That's one way, however the most common is just a random sample asking about intentions to comply. If it's as low as 36% - eek!

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure about editing, but I doubt it. The lectures are pretty long and editing takes a long time. They are necessary at the moment, and could have other uses (as you note), but IMO will never come close to the classroom environment. I've been teaching in classrooms for more than 30 years and love it. I can't imagine that remote learning could ever replace the old-fashioned way. It's a necessity (or convenience) of this modern world, but yuck.

I think it depends both on the teacher and the learner. I've seen some great online lectures (Tim Pychyl springs immediately to mind), and what is engaging in person should also be engaging online.

To my mind the problem is that you've significantly less control over the learning environment with online classes, and interaction is much more of a challenge.

It is, however, something I would like to see become the norm. Bricks and mortar learning establishments have a role to play but we often forget that not everyone is in a position to attend bricks and mortar establishments.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ron Fournier once wrote for The Atlantic and was Washington bureau chief for Associated Press. On April 20, he tweeted that Georgia's governor "would have blood on his hands" in two or three weeks for easing countermeasures. Three and a half weeks later, cases and deaths continue to decline here. Today Fournier grudgingly acknowledged he got it wrong.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ron Fournier once wrote for The Atlantic and was Washington bureau chief for Associated Press. On April 20, he tweeted that Georgia's governor "would have blood on his hands" in two or three weeks for easing countermeasures. Three and a half weeks later, cases and deaths continue to decline here. Today Fournier grudgingly acknowledged he got it wrong.

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ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

...
Jeepers Dan - you need to hide your goat better...

There's a lot of people blowing smoke up our tailpipes in regards to the COVID. Everybody (from every political perspective) seems to have an opinion and they wanna share it. Don't let them trip you up - life is too short.

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Hide Your Goat: Strategies To Stay Positive When Negativity Surrounds You

Hide Your Goat is for every person who has ever said, “Why me?” It is for every person who feels like everywhere you turn, you meet problems, obstacles, difficulties – large ones, small ones, all sizes. Filled with thought-provoking questions, ideas and solutions, this book will help you stay positive while dealing with life’s disappointments and the negativity that encompasses our society. Whereas, you can’t change the people and circumstances that try to get your goat, Hide Your Goat will help you stay positive when negativity surrounds you. The book focuses on six core principles.

• The Courage to Recognize Who You Are
• The Strength to Accept Where You Have Been
* The Wisdom to Discern Where You Are Heading
* The Knowledge to Acquire What it Takes To Get There
* The Awareness to Exclude Who Is Stopping You
* The Power to Change What Holds You Back

Hide Your Goat makes you aware of how your daily life intersects with a diverse group of people from different backgrounds, opinions and personalities. This book will make you think about yourself and dive deep below the surface to uncover feelings, thoughts and emotions that expose your goat. Regardless of its origin, the expression “gets my goat” is something that resonates with all of us. The fast-paced and stress-filled schedules we maintain “open the gate” to allow people and circumstances to “get our goat.” It’s time to discover, herd, teach, feed, gate, exercise and in the end, Hide Your Goat!

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Just stories from the assisted living front:

My parents live in a 10 unit assisted living building. The other buildings at the complex are much larger populations with smaller personal living spaces but bigger common areas (which have been closed). There is nursing and memory buildings too. So max occupancy is 20, but there there are currently 5 widows and 1 widower and two units were caught out of town when the facility was locked down (which predated the State lockdown). I am sure they will be locked down longer than the state recommends too.

Anyhow, about a week ago they decided to meet every other day for a cocktail party where they all bring their own drinks and talk for about an hour or hour and half. They did not seek permission for doing this.

Many of the widows admitted yesterday to spending all day crying, especially when the weather is poor (they are allowed to walk outside). Face masks and social distancing are mandatory. No visitors allowed.

The ladies are also upset they can't visit a hairdresser or have the staff hair dresser visit them. For the first time in her life, despite being 86, my mother has white hair.

One unit saw a normal non covid death, she was doing poorly, and taken to the hospital where she died after several days alone. The husband was never allowed to leave the facility, no funeral is planned. The guy is actually a very well known public figure in Philadelphia area and in the nation. My brother living in California found out about the death before my parents did and they were best friends and have known each other for 20 years...this was pre cocktail party get together. I think it might have been the catalyst for these seniors to start doing the cocktail parties.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Just stories from the assisted living front:

My parents live in a 10 unit assisted living building. The other buildings at the complex are much larger populations with smaller personal living spaces but bigger common areas (which have been closed). There is nursing and memory buildings too. So max occupancy is 20, but there there are currently 5 widows and 1 widower and two units were caught out of town when the facility was locked down (which predated the State lockdown). I am sure they will be locked down longer than the state recommends too.

Anyhow, about a week ago they decided to meet every other day for a cocktail party where they all bring their own drinks and talk for about an hour or hour and half. They did not seek permission for doing this.

Many of the widows admitted yesterday to spending all day crying, especially when the weather is poor (they are allowed to walk outside). Face masks and social distancing are mandatory. No visitors allowed.

The ladies are also upset they can't visit a hairdresser or have the staff hair dresser visit them. For the first time in her life, despite being 86, my mother has white hair.

One unit saw a normal non covid death, she was doing poorly, and taken to the hospital where she died after several days alone. The husband was never allowed to leave the facility, no funeral is planned. The guy is actually a very well known public figure in Philadelphia area and in the nation. My brother living in California found out about the death before my parents did and they were best friends and have known each other for 20 years...this was pre cocktail party get together. I think it might have been the catalyst for these seniors to start doing the cocktail parties.

Wow. That is a touching story. We did a social distancing thing at my Mom's place for Mother's Day. Everyone brought their own take-out. That part was kind of pathetic.

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New York barber who violated lockdown to give hair cuts tests positive and infected 'DOZENS' of his customers, Governor Cuomo reveals

Barber shop on Broadway in Kingston, New York, was 'illicitly' operating
Ulster County officials did not identify the name of the shop
But they have urged anyone who got a haircut in the town to get tested
Governor Cuomo said the barber infected 'more than a dozen others'
Total of nearly 1,500 people in Ulster County have tested positive for COVID-19
New York State announced five regions have met benchmarks for reopening
Cuomo announced that other areas will remain on lockdown
New York City, the virus epicenter, will likely stay shut down for weeks

An upstate New York barber who was giving haircuts to clients in violation of the governor’s coronavirus lockdown tested positive for COVID-19 and infected more than a dozen people, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Ulster County released a statement on Wednesday indicating that the infected barber worked at a shop on Broadway in the town of Kingston, about 20 miles north of Poughkeepsie.

The county health commissioner is advising anyone who received a haircut in a barber shop in Kingston in the past three weeks to get tested for the coronavirus.

'Barber in Kingston was operating in defiance of the close order, infected I think over a dozen people,' Cuomo said during his routine coronavirus briefing on Friday.

'You know, that is a occupation of close proximity, right?

'You can't really socially distance and do a haircut … that is by definition an up-close-and-personal occupation.'

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Wow. The thing is you need a serious human safety study with any COVID vaccine because of this whole cytokine storm business and the many apparent immune mediated side effects (like Kawasaki Disease in kids)

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I think the recombinants or mRNA-based approaches (as opposed to spike glycoprotein or whole virus) approaches are less likely to result in such nasty side effects, don't you?

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Here's a bit of what has really been going on at the top of the ladder. Good thing for State Governors and other local governments in the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed

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A different take on masks from a neurosurgeon.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Even though I am at risk at work I have to admit I am getting damn tired of some slicked-back-hair guy in Sacramento telling me what beach I can walk on.

I am flying up to Bozeman, Montana in 2 weeks for some float trips on the Madison and maybe fish in Yellowstone too. And I'm not going to wear a mask standing hip deep in a river. I predict I will not be arrested in Montana.