RangerJoe
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Alfred
All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out. None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.
The funniest thing in this thread is the oft repeated claim that commercial war game designers support this fantasy and therefore it isn't a fantasy. Commercial war game designers are not professional military planners. They have no experience in actually preparing realistic military plans. Every single war game design is an abstraction of the real world constraints. It cannot be otherwise. Purchasers of commercial war games do not have the computing hardware to run all the real inputs which professional military planners have. Commercial war games (particularly those dealing with WWII) reduce the delta disparity in capabilities of the opposing sides precisely in order to make the games playable and marketable. All those uncritical believers that the Germans were destined for military success (the evidence shows a lot of luck delivered German victories) would not buy their WWII war games if they knew their "best" play will probably still result in defeat.
Let's look at a few elements of this fantasy.
Spain
1. An entire German Army Group is proposed to "blitz" Spain. In 1940, a weak German Army Group would be comprised of 3 x Armies, each Heer of 3 x Corps, each Korps of 2 x Divisions. That is a minimum of 18 divisions.
2. In 1940, a German attack on Spain can only be launched from the very narrow strip of French Atlantic coastline occupied by the Germans under their agreement with Vichy France. You cannot efficiently attack with 18 divisions along such a narrow frontage. Nor can you effectively attack over the Pyrenees. The net result is that this Army Group would be essentially deployed in a column stretching bumper to bumper back to Biaritz, and some way towards Bordeaux. There would be no element of surprise accompanying the attack.
3. The Spanish army opposing the Germans is a 3 year battle hardened veteran army. One which is equipped with some German equipment but more importantly has first hand knowledge of German tactics. The Germans would not be up against the clueless, untested opponents they have faced to date. Furthermore, there would be no dissension in Spain itself as Franco's internal opponents would also oppose the Germans, a fact evidenced by their actual participation in Maquis activities in France.
4. Once the Germans reach San Sebastian, then what.
(a) does one Heer veer off to the right to capture the mining areas of Asturias all the way to Corunna with a view to then entering Portugal. This thrust would be hemmed in by the Cantabrian mountains,
(b) another Heer heads south towards Madrid via Burgos, down through the Sierra de Guadarama. Were talking about ski field areas, not terrain conducive to panzer operations.
(c) the third Heer turns left down the Ebro Valley towards Barcelona and Valencia. At least this vector provides panzer friendly territory, as evidenced in the recent Spanish Civil War campaigns
Any idea how long it would take to reach Corunna, Madrid and Valencia? Where talking about distances comparable in length to those traversed in the recently concluded French campaign. Over terrain much less suitable for panzers. Where the road infrastructure is much less extensive than that of northern France. Against a battle hardened enemy not caught out by the meeting engagements which Gamelin accepted. Surely the time frame would not be less than that of northern France, so a minimum of 6 weeks. When is this operation going to start? August at the earliest, realistically more likely September. So we are looking at mid October 1940, and half of Spain (and most of Portugal too) is still to be attacked. Attacked when the winter starts to arrive in the Meseta. Yes Spain has lovely, warm beaches. It also has extensive snowfalls.
5. Attacking towards Cordoba, Seville and Granada is not much fun in October. Assuming of course all organised resistance behind has been eliminated and it is possible to resume the attack in October. There are some serious mountain ranges to get through. But more importantly the Germans at the end of a long and vulnerable supply line back to the Rhine, are now moving into territory not too far from Gibraltar. Only a fool would assume that whilst the Germans were moving down the peninsula, Churchill would do nothing. Two obvious possibilities are:
(a) utilising naval mobility, land troops behind the lines back up north to sever the German supply lines. combined with local guerrillas, you know the type which have been discounted as not amounting to anything thus no need for German garrisons taken out of the Army Group shwerpunckt
(b) reinforce Gibraltar and move out to the excellent defensive terrain provided by the Sierra Nevada. This would be viewed by Franco as a friendly force for Britain can provide all the things which Germany can't. Things like food and petrol. Funny thing about a population which lacks food. The civilians tend to get very angry. These years are known in Spain as the hungry years for very good reason. Admiral Canaris always opposed any German move into Spain because he understood the inability to provide food for the population. Really Franco would have no option but to at least tolerate British military support to eject the Germans.
6. Suggestion has been made that Spain would be pillaged. That Spanish locomotives would be seized and sent back to Germany. Small technical detail; ever considered the different railway gauges within Spain itself at the time, and then considered what the Germans ran on. Of course such technical details aren't considered important. Then there is the question of tungsten which Germany was heavily dependent on Spanish production. Just how much of that would remain for importation into Germany after invading Spain. The historical record is not good of Germany extracting captured resources but heck, again why bother with such a piddling detail when there are all those obsolete PzII to be sent forward with the German equivalent of a "tally ho and jolly good fun" mindset.
7. Assume against the facts, that the Iberian peninsula is fully captured (that includes Gibraltar) before the end of 1940. That definitely leaves the Azores. Madeira, Cape Verde Islands, and the Canaries out of German reach, Wouldn't be long before they were under British control. What a wonderful own goal kicked by the Germans themselves. Instead of losing the Battle of the Atlantic in mid 1943, they get to lose it in early 1941 as the mid-Atlantic ASW gap is plugged and Donitz loses all those submarines 2 years earlier. Again not a relevant consideration for the amateurs. If it doesn't fit into the salt and pepper shakers being moved on the dinner table whilst holding a large glass of port scenario, it isn't relevant.
I'll stop here for now. the Swiss cheese proposal for elsewhere can wait for another day. When I've stopped laughing.
Alfred
A very good analysis, as always. 
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