Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Barbarossa was entirely Hitler's project. Yet Mussolini was persuaded to contribute a significant fraction of his force to it. So your claim that he would never cooperate with his German ally was false.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

A night invasion with no follow up reinforcements would be crushed. There would be few if any tanks and heavy weapons landed. The Royal Navy would come down and make lots of divots where the Germans where.

Of course there would be follow-up reinforcements - on subsequent nights.

Bombers dropping flares while the Fairy Battle fighters and other fighters shoot down the transports.

Destroyers, Motor Launches, and other small vessels destroying the slow and heavily loaded barges, No more sea lift.

The BEF left France without heavy weapons. They're not going to be very formidable for quite a while.

The British still had an intact armour brigade. The 3.7 inch AA gun was their equivalent to the good German 88 Flak which was used as an AT gun. The British would have used theirs as AT weapons and the 40mm Bofors as well. Those were from their AAA units which are not engaging the bombers which are not flying over England.

The RN is the issue. But, if the transport is fast enough, they're out of the channel by the time the RN gets there.

Barges are not fast. They also might need a vessel to push them. Unloading the barges over the beach will not be fast unless they unload at a working port. With no Luftwaffe flying overhead, all of Bomber Command plus what Coastal command can spare will be bombing the invasion. Even Fulmars.

But, you're missing the point. The point is that the British can't discount any invasion plan. So, just because one element of a supposed plan is missing, it doesn't mean the invasion can be discounted. That's because they may just not understand how the Germans are going to come at them.

I am not missing the point. The British would still prepare their defense. But if they say a bunch of transports and Gigants show up, then they will know what is happening. A Recon Spitfire would be hard for the Germans to shoot down.

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Therefore, the first phase of the German air offensive took place over the English Channel.

In the second phase of attacks, shipping, coastal airfields, radar and stations south of London were attacked during 8–18 August.

In other words, prior to Eagle Day, the Luftwaffe wasn't flying over the interior England itself - where the battle was very advantageous to the British.

You mean that England south of London is not part of England?

I suggest that you look at a map.

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The strait is 61 kilometres (38 mi) long, and 1.2 to 6 kilometres (0.7 to 3.7 mi) wide, averaging 55 metres (180 ft) deep with a maximum depth of 103 metres (338 ft) at its narrowest point at Nara Burnu, abreast Çanakkale.[3] There are two major currents through the strait: a surface current flows from the Black Sea towards the Aegean Sea, and a more saline undercurrent flows in the opposite direction.[4]

The Dardanelles is unique in many respects. The very narrow and winding shape of the strait is more akin to that of a river. It is considered one of the most hazardous, crowded, difficult and potentially dangerous waterways in the world. The currents produced by the tidal action in the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara are such that ships under sail must await at anchorage for the right conditions before entering the Dardanelles.

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The Bosporus (/ˈbɒspərəs/) or Bosphorus (/-pər-, -fər-/;[1] Ancient Greek: Βόσπορος Bosporos [bós.po.ros]; also known as the Strait of Istanbul; Turkish: İstanbul Boğazı, colloquially Boğaz) is a narrow, natural strait . . .

Most of the shores of the strait, except for those in the north, are heavily settled, straddled by the city of Istanbul . . . extending inland from both coasts.

Together with the Dardanelles, the Bosporus forms the Turkish Straits.
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The limits of the Bosporus are defined as the connecting line between the lighthouses of Rumeli Feneri and Anadolu Feneri in the north, and between the Ahırkapı Feneri and the Kadıköy İnciburnu Feneri in the south. Between these limits, the strait is 31 km (17 nmi) long, with a width of 3,329 m (1.798 nmi) at the northern entrance and 2,826 m (1.526 nmi) at the southern entrance. Its maximum width is 3,420 m (1.85 nmi) between Umuryeri and Büyükdere Limanı, and minimum width 700 m (0.38 nmi) between Kandilli Point and Aşiyan.

The depth of the Bosporus varies from 13 to 110 m (43 to 361 ft) in midstream with an average of 65 m (213 ft). The deepest location is between Kandilli and Bebek with 110 m (360 ft). The shallowest locations are off Kadıköy İnciburnu on the northward route with 18 m (59 ft) and off Aşiyan Point on the southward route with 13 m (43 ft).[8]

The smallest section is on a sill located in front of Dolmabahçe Palace. It is around 38 000 square meter. The Southbound flow is 16 000 m3/s (fresh water at surface) and the northbound flow is 11 000 m3/s (salt water near bottom).[9] Some even speak about a Black Sea undersea river.

The Golden Horn is an estuary off the main strait that historically acted as a moat to protect Old Istanbul from attack, as well as providing a sheltered anchorage for the imperial navies of various empires until the 19th century, after which it became a historic neighborhood at the heart of the city, popular with tourists and locals alike.
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Between its northern limits at Rumeli Feneri and Anadolu Feneri and its southern ones at Ahırkapı Feneri and Kadıköy İnciburnu Feneri, there are numerous dangerous points for large-scale maritime traffic that require sharp turns and management of visual obstructions. Famously, the stretch between Kandilli Point and Aşiyan requires a 45-degree course alteration in a location where the currents can reach 7 to 8 knots (3.6 to 4.1 m/s). To the south, at Yeniköy, the necessary course alteration is 80 degrees. Compounding these difficult changes in trajectory, the rear and forward sight lines at Kandilli and Yeniköy are also completely blocked prior to and during the course alteration, making it impossible for ships approaching from the opposite direction to see around these bends.
(Hey, great places to hide machine guns and artillery to fire down the strait without be seen from directly across the strait.

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Okay let’s deal with this another way because you are not getting it. We’ll take the Wiki article first because that, in terms of your credibility, is clearly the most damaging.

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I mean we can agree/disagree on what may or may not have happened and that is fine and all part of the fun of debate. But what is more concerning is how you see ‘evidence’. Case in point – you produced this Wiki excerpt. You’ve produced this one paragraph from one Wiki article and produced this as ‘evidence’ of what Japan would definitely not do – even though the circumstances changed! That is the height of narrow minded, limited thinking.

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Furthermore, within the Japanese high command there was a disagreement over what to do about the Soviet threat to the north of their Manchurian territories. The tipping point came just after the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in late June 1941. With the Soviets tied down, the high command concluded that a "strike south" would solve Japan's problems with the United States, most notably the increasing American concerns about Japan's moves in China, and the possibility of a crippling oil embargo on Japan.

What is this saying? It is reflecting what happened in real life, it is saying that because of Barbarossa, any concerns Japan had about going south were swept away because there was no threat from the Soviet Union. Since posting you have metaphorically been jumping up and down in a state of high excitement at the sentence in bold. Because what you have decided, without bothering to actually think about things, is that this MUST mean, it HAS to mean, that no Barbarossa means no invasion of the FIC, which means no embargo, which means no NEI requirement – I’m the winner, I’m the winner!!

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Japan has a number of problems. She won’t quit China.

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I know you struggle with the whole FIC thing but please, its not that difficult. The Japanese invade FIC (in limited fashion) in September 1940. This led the US – already embargoing certain key goods from sale to Japan – to adding even more materials including iron and steel scrap. The embargo of strategic materials was hurting Japan, but the US stopped short of oil for the moment. But Japan knows that Roosevelt can turn the screw at any time by adding oil to that ever growing list…. We know in real life it was Japan’s second move on the FIC that led to the oil embargo, but the point is, it doesn’t have to be that.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

What staff study.

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You said this scenario has been proven to work, it's been gamed. So.

- What are the Luftwaffe doing in Northern France?

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- The Germans are at war with the UK. Why, despite their massive aerial advantage are they doing nothing about the British?

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- In what world does it make sense to leave British industries alone, free to churn out the materials needed to help re-build the shattered army brought back from France?

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It's July 1940, the Germans have the British on the run and those pesky islanders won't give in. Why now take all the pressure off. Militarily it doesn't make sense, knowing the personalities of those involved it doesn't make sense.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Except you haven't answered the basics. You are running ahead with a 1942 Barbarossa but you have still made no sensible case for what the Luftwaffe are doing in Northern France.

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You've not confirmed the number of division that the Germans will be allocating to the Spanish operation or the make up.

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There is one train line that runs from France to Spain as far as I know, and the train gauges are different. How many divisions can be properly supported? Will the Regia Marina or Kriegsmarine need to assist the supply situation? What will the Luftwaffe be able to provide in support? What will that mean to the existing operations in the North Sea and Bay of Biscay? You said all this has been gamed?

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You've still made no sensible case for what happens to Spain post 'victory'. The cost of occupying Spain will be enormous - Hitler knew and feared this - so what are you going to do? How big a drain is this going to be - even if you get the Italians to take up some of the slack?

How are the Spanish population that Germany has just taken on responsibility for going to get fed?

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

And lastly, the point in bold. If you need to mis-represent what I've said then you know you've lost.

I have never even suggested, not for one moment, that Mussolini would refuse to co-operate with Hitler.

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Mussolini telling Hitler he is launching an attack on Egypt - in conjunction with the attack on Spain is hardly refusing to co-operate is it? Get real.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Posting a wiki article that supports my position is damaging?!!

Ignoring the wiki article because it is devastating to your claims is much more narrow minded.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Except that I've been saying that before the article was found. No way the Japs launch the Rising Sun offensive till the Russians are tied down.

For sure, the historical trigger for the oil embargo doesn't happen. If it still gets embargoed at some later date, the Japanese still have options other than war with the US, as I've already outlined.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

She's been in China for years, and left it basically on hold for the duration of the Pacific War.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Demonstrating.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

They are going to purse a Med strategy.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

It makes sense because it makes the Med an Axis lake - with all the benefits thereof.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Actually, Hitler was an English admirer. He didn't want to invade Britain. He thought they should be on the same side.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Bombers dropping flares while the Fairy Battle fighters and other fighters shoot down the transports.

Destroyers, Motor Launches, and other small vessels destroying the slow and heavily loaded barges, No more sea lift.

quote:

The British still had an intact armour brigade. The 3.7 inch AA gun was their equivalent to the good German 88 Flak which was used as an AT gun. The British would have used theirs as AT weapons and the 40mm Bofors as well. Those were from their AAA units which are not engaging the bombers which are not flying over England.

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I am not missing the point. The British would still prepare their defense. But if they say a bunch of transports and Gigants show up, then they will know what is happening. A Recon Spitfire would be hard for the Germans to shoot down.

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You mean that England south of London is not part of England?

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

I mean we can agree/disagree on what may or may not have happened and that is fine and all part of the fun of debate. But what is more concerning is how you see ‘evidence’. Case in point – you produced this Wiki excerpt. You’ve produced this one paragraph from one Wiki article and produced this as ‘evidence’ of what Japan would definitely not do – even though the circumstances changed! That is the height of narrow minded, limited thinking.

Ignoring the wiki article because it is devastating to your claims is much more narrow minded.

Anyone can edit wiki. It is a starting place especially in certain areas, especially the war in China.

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Japan has a number of problems. She won’t quit China.

She's been in China for years, and left it basically on hold for the duration of the Pacific War. Clearly, it's not as urgent as you think.

Not true. There were still offensive operations later.

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I know you struggle with the whole FIC thing but please, its not that difficult. The Japanese invade FIC (in limited fashion) in September 1940. This led the US – already embargoing certain key goods from sale to Japan – to adding even more materials including iron and steel scrap. The embargo of strategic materials was hurting Japan, but the US stopped short of oil for the moment. But Japan knows that Roosevelt can turn the screw at any time by adding oil to that ever growing list…. We know in real life it was Japan’s second move on the FIC that led to the oil embargo, but the point is, it doesn’t have to be that.

For sure, the historical trigger for the oil embargo doesn't happen. If it still gets embargoed at some later date, the Japanese still have options other than war with the US, as I've already outlined. The US really does not want to join the world war. Roosevelt's hands really are tied.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I said a full army group.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

One rail line per army group in Barbarossa as well. The amount of supply that can be pushed down a rail line is enormous.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Far less of a drain than the Desert War.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

That was the impression I got.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Not if Hitler's plan is now to trap the British deep into Libya in 1941.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

No you just don't get it. It doesn't support your position and it doesn't hurt let alone devastate my position.

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The circumstances have changed. The scenario now calls for a decision to be made by Japan, just as per real life. But in making that decision one element has changed, one element only. The hole Japan finds herself in hasn't changed. The mix of hawks and doves, of navy and army, of Russia and the south hasn't changed.

But you just can't seem to grasp the real world picture.

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Before the article was 'found' wow. This is War in the Pacific 101 for crying out loud.

So we suspend disbelief and say Japan goes with your do nothing approach. Next month the US unilaterally embargo oil. Let's be clear, are you saying Japan continues to do nothing? Her navy is burning 400 tons an hour but he Japanese continue to do nothing? Is that what you are saying? So what is this massive array of options that has just opened for the Japanese thanks to getting their oil supply almost completely cut off, her assets frozen and all the existing embargoes - including lubricants, scrap metal etc in place?

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That's funny. The war in China is on hold. Must be profit making then eh?

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The movie "Darkest Hour" showed Churchill being briefed about the Germans using fast motor boats for the invasion. Clearly, it was a very real concern.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Erm..... that's..... Er....

I don't even know where to start with that. A full army group..... you said a full army group.... Ah right. Because of course a full army group is a set number of armies that each contain a set number of corps and a set number of divisions within.... Furthermore the armour and infantry components of all army groups are of course standard.

Right so presumably you will be providing a sensible answer in due course?

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Indeed my mistake, I forgot that as the German army heads west, south and east the rail line branches off perfectly and there are rail heads at all points of the advance.

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Silly me......The Germans in Russia never had a problem with supply did they?

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Then you simply don't understand the numbers involved in either your proposed Spanish adventure or the Desert War.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I guess I just can't read English.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

A very, very major element has changed.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

If that happens Japan has two viable options:

1. Depend upon her two year stockpile of oil.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

2. Occupy the DEI. Whereupon we know the US will do nothing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Clearly it was not a urgent as you are claiming.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No detail will be necessary. It will be whatever it takes to be overwhelming.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The different rail gauge limited how much repair they could do.

Made it to the gates of Moscow. Spain will be a piece of cake in comparison.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No. You are overestimating the cost of the Spanish operation.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The movie "Darkest Hour" showed Churchill being briefed about the Germans using fast motor boats for the invasion. Clearly, it was a very real concern.

warspite1



So that is what that nonsense was about..... well if it was in the movie. Priceless.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

No. Why is it causing you such difficulty. Allow me:

Scenario 1. 1941 Barbarossa doesn't happen. The reason is that Germany and the USSR have joined together as one big happy family and Hitler gives his blessing to Stalin to attack Japan. THAT is a very very major element changing and Japan would need to get the hell out of China and pray. Attacking anywhere is not going to happen.

Scenario 2. 1941 Barbarossa doesn't happen. The reason is that Germany are finishing off the last of the resistance in the west and North Africa before turning on Stalin. Japan is about as far from Stalin's thoughts as Pluto. THAT is a major element changing (no Barbarossa) but it has no effect on Japan taking their historical action.

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Let's hope you never get to run a country.

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That's right Curtis Lemay. And of course that is why in real life Japan took that course of action..... no wait hold on...

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Again it's like you have to put everything in silos to cope. Look at China as a whole. Look at her situation. Yes, the war in China was going nowhere it was massively costly in money it was massively costly in resources.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The movie "Darkest Hour" showed Churchill being briefed about the Germans using fast motor boats for the invasion. Clearly, it was a very real concern.

warspite1



So that is what that nonsense was about..... well if it was in the movie. Priceless.

Happy to have Darkest Hour on my side, too. Along with all the wargame designers and Wikipedia.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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Yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya. The British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Japan doesn't know what Stalin is thinking. No Barbarossa has a huge impact on Japan's plans.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

So, if you were running Japan, you would have gone to war with the US over oil? Let's hope you never run a country.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Now there's no Barbarossa. Different circumstances mean different actions.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

And it was massively on hold for the duration of the Pacific War.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

Yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya. The British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.

The details are unnecessary. It is clear that the Germans have far more than enough force to overwhelm Spain.

In programming, this is called "Information Hiding":

You can't see the forest if you bury yourself in the trees.

So, German planners will determine the right amount of force to bring to bear on Spain. They have more than enough to choose from.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Aurelian

To invade the Brits, the Germans need air superiority over the Channel. So there was going to be a BoB regardless.

And does anyone really think the RN would just stand by while barges full of troops were being towed across the Channel?

And the landings themselves.... The German army wanted a far wider landing zone than their navy could cover.

And it all had to be done before rough weather put a stop to it. Barges don't like rough weather.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_anti-invasion_preparations_of_the_Second_World_War

And this all assumes that the principal players didn't act they way that they did. In other words, Hitler did not decide in July 1940 to invade Russia in 1941. Goring actually knew how to run the Luftwaffe. Churchill, Tovey, Dowding, and the rest doing nothing to counter.

And invading Russia in 1942? How many divisions would be tied down on garrison duty in England? And Spain if Hitler was crackpot enough to invade them? All those divisions subtracted from invading Russia. And what about Russia. The Red Army would of been in a much better position.

Just might regret getting into this. But oh well.......

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

Yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya. The British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.

The details are unnecessary. It is clear that the Germans have far more than enough force to overwhelm Spain.

In programming, this is called "Information Hiding":

https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/I/information_hiding.html#:~:text=%20%20%201%20%281%29%20In%20programming%2C%20the,%282%29%20Another%20term%20for%20digital%20watermarking.%20More%20

You can't see the forest if you bury yourself in the trees.

So, German planners will determine the right amount of force to bring to bear on Spain. They have more than enough to choose from.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

And, all they have to do is get to Madrid, whereupon Spain will surrender and her forces will dissolve.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The point is: They can't discount the invasion threat regardless of what the Germans do or don't do.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

Yes you are right. Great plan to get Mussolini back to Libya. The British will take Libya in a month. They will use an army group. I don't have to say what an army group is because all army groups are standard. And besides it will take what it takes to be overwhelming.

The details are unnecessary. It is clear that the Germans have far more than enough force to overwhelm Spain.

In programming, this is called "Information Hiding":

https://www.webopedia.com/TERM/I/information_hiding.html#:~:text=%20%20%201%20%281%29%20In%20programming%2C%20the,%282%29%20Another%20term%20for%20digital%20watermarking.%20More%20

You can't see the forest if you bury yourself in the trees.

So, German planners will determine the right amount of force to bring to bear on Spain. They have more than enough to choose from.