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Turn 6, center - 9/10/2020 12:22:07 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		The Germans did not head south as I had thought they might, but kept going east.

The reserve front army directly between them and Moscow, unfortunately, is led by a incompetent. I might change him next turn. Southern Front Armies, however, are in even bigger need of leadership changes. Fortunately, with Zhukov in charge of the Front, those changes will not take as many AP. With that in mind, I should have put Zhukov in charge of Kharkov M.D. and Timoshenko in charge of Southern Front. Leadership changes would have cost even less.

As to leadership changes: Stalin finally had one of my generals shot this turn: Kopets from Western Air Command. I also changed the leader of 4 Army (Western Front) and put Govorov in charge there. That was the only change I had contemplated this turn, but then I looked at 20 Army (also Western Front) and decided Remezov had to go. It is too bad Stalin has not yet seen fit to have Pavlov shot. These changes would have cost SOOOO much less. At any rate, Vasilevsky is now in charge of 20 Army.

I am still holding the Dnepr this turn, although it is starting to lengthen my front. I do need to put more troops into the Vyazma/Rzhev region. Although I have some depth here, I have no real strength. Almost all of my reinforcements this turn went to this sector, with a few others going north to Leningrad. Next turn will see the same allocation of forces.





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< Message edited by cap_and_gown -- 9/10/2020 2:23:22 AM >

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Post #: 31
Turn 6, south and Odessa - 9/10/2020 12:44:53 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		I was able to pull back from the Ingul. 3 German infantry divisions have reached the Dnepr. Odessa survived its first two assaults. Unfortunately, the forts are down to 3.00 and the divisions there are low on ammo. They are also led by a poor general. I don't think they will survive the upcoming turn. If they do, and the port situation allows, I am going to pull them out of there. Should have done it this turn. Oh well.





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Post #: 32
Turn 7: Leningrad disaster. - 9/16/2020 2:09:53 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		My defense of Leningrad fell apart almost without a fight. I thought I had one more turn, but the Germans showed me otherwise. The panzers sliced through my defenses, reaching within 10 miles of the Neva. I wanted to attack the two flank guards (motorized divisions) but very, very heavy air interdiction prevented me from getting units into place with enough movement left to launch any attacks. With the rail line cut, I am going to lose 5 heavy industry and 10 armament factories. Fortunately, everything else has already been evaced. Now it is time to get the troops out of there is I can. I am going to lose the city, but I will try to save at least some of the troops.






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Post #: 33
Turn 7: retreat from the Dnepr - 9/16/2020 2:27:49 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		I am most worried about my position in the center. Reserve Front is especially weak and needs all the reinforcements I can get. Every reinforcing division I got this turn went to this sector. Next turn I may also pull in troops from other sectors as well.

The Germans crossed the Dnepr at Orsha (not unexpected) at two spots just west of Smolensk (also not unexpected). As a result, we are pulling back from the Dnepr since those defenses are now compromised and leave us in danger of encirclement. I also wanted to straighten and shorten the front. I did launch two counter-attacks to try to clear a path for one of the divisions on the north side of the Dnepr to retreat. The attack on the cavalry division succeeded, the one on the motorized division failed.

As to leadership changes, Vatutin is now in charge of 34 Army (Reserve Front) and Rokossovsky is now in charge of 9 Army (Southern Front).





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Post #: 34
Turn 7: south - 9/16/2020 2:40:25 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		The Germans encircled two of my divisions on the Ingulets. I was hoping to form my own encirclement, but my attack the Das Reich division was not successful. Hopefully, however, we have lengthened his supply lines enough to have a noticeable effect next turn on the motorized formations here. Of course, I did sacrifice and additional cavalry division to achieve this "lengthening." Would have been better if we had achieve a full scale encirclement.

The factories at Dnepropetrovsk and Zaparozhe are all gone.






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Post #: 35
RE: Turn 5: south - 9/16/2020 2:58:11 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline
quote:

In his opening move the germans diverted 2 panzer corps from PzG 2 to the south. That makes his southern force much more powerful. Instead of 3 panzer corps, there are currently 5 panzer corp operating in the south. This also means there are only 3 panzer corps in the center, rather than 5. As such, I have focused my reinforcements more heavily in the south.


Even though you're weak as a kitten you want to fight where he wants to fight?
In pure panzer country on the open steppe?
"He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight."

When I look at your Leningrad defense what I see is the surrender of a lot of non-panzer terrain bonuses that pioneers and artillery can't touch without a **** fired or extra MP spent. Make him burn the MP blasting you back as much as feasible (where you have natural bonuses). River lines are like the gods' AT brigades, ready to nullify a chunk of panzer attack power.
If he is going to understrength AGN and AGC all the more reason to fight him on those fronts and let him find his logistical tether in the south. Aside from aligning defenses to cost him MP crossing rivers, and cutting his strength to grant you the occasional hasty attack win, there's not much you can really do in the south. I would think if he's over strength by two panzer corps it's an even more Sisyphean task.

quote:

I am also not interested, right now, in shifting forces around. Instead, reinforcements to each sector are coming from newly created units, not already existing units. I have not planned any big offensive in the Baltic states like you have. Which, by the way, I would like to see your AAR updated to see how that is playing out.


"If he sends reinforcements everywhere, he will everywhere be weak.”
The rail limits definitely change the game for Soviet strategic movement, but if you look over your Southwestern Front survivors and early war units you have some real solid fighters. Don't let them be boat raced by panzers in the open. Get them in dugouts in the woods and rough terrain by Leningrad. They're as good as three freshly raised reserves in the critical first few months you're buying time.

The Baltic counter offensive was a unique opportunity owing to my opponent not being careful with his flanks, and inattentive to the potential risk.
The game fortunately continues, but I'm abysmally slow due to real life gaming window. Reorganizing the Red Army in the summer and fall is a slower exercise for me than Winter Offensive, and this game I'm trying to better incorporate the air war and SU management (which I've basically ignored in the past).
I just sent turn 13 back last night, so it continues and the AAR will get updates when it's 10 turns behind - now on with your defense of Rodina!

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 36
RE: Turn 5: south - 9/16/2020 3:08:29 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks for the advise.

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Post #: 37
Turn 8: north - 9/25/2020 1:46:25 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		The evacuation of Leningrad continues.

This turn I got a bunch of admin points. I spent a goodly number of them changing leaders. Unfortunately, Stalin has not yet seen fit to have Pavlov shot, so the cost of changing leaders in Western Front is higher than it otherwise might be if I had a high political point front commander. :(

32 Army (Western Front) -> Lelyushenko
19 Army (Southern Front) -> Bobkin
43 Army (Reserve Front) -> Purkaev
23 Army (Northern Front) -> Malinovsky

I also spent a lot of AP upgrading fighter units to Mig's, Lagg's and Yak's. The Yak's are looking especially promising, wracking up a good number of kills.






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Post #: 38
Turn 8: center - 9/25/2020 1:50:24 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		We pull back further from the western Dnepr, shifting forces in a northeasterly direction to reinforce the upper Dnepr east of Smolensk.




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Post #: 39
Turn 8: south - 9/25/2020 1:55:15 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		The panzers were inactive this turn, either executing a HQBU, or simply sitting and gassing up. My encircled cavalry division was able to convert a number of hexes to soviet control.





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Post #: 40
Turn 9: the northern "wall" - 9/29/2020 10:51:32 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		We managed to get most of our units out of the Leningrad pocket, either by walking or by sea transport. It looks like I will lose 5 divisions: 2 at Leningrad itself, and 3 trying to escape on foot to the east. The Soviets now have formed the dreaded "wall of units" around the Volkhov, the first place where we have sufficient concentration of forces to do so.





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< Message edited by cap_and_gown -- 9/29/2020 12:11:45 PM >

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Post #: 41
Turn 9: center - 9/29/2020 10:57:59 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		The Germans pocketed 6 divisions along the Dnepr but we were able to open the pocket with a counter attack on a motorized division. We threw in another counter attack on the Gross Deutschland regiment just for good measure, though the large number of Soviet casualties may mean this counter attack was ill-advised.

Another 2 divisions were close to being encircled around the headwaters of the Dnerp. One of them is probably a goner anyway.

Western Front continues to shift units in a northeasterly direction to bulk up the Rzhev/Vyazma line.





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Post #: 42
Turn 9: south - 9/29/2020 11:09:13 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Four rifle and one armor divisions were pocketed in the Dnepr bend. The Germans also achieve a bridgehead over the lower Dnepr. There was a raging debate at Stavka on how to deal with this bridgehead: continue to hold positions along the Denpr to slow down the Germans, or pull back all units to save them from encirlement. Shaposhnikov wanted to leave up to 5 divisions behind on the river bank to slow down the German advance, but Zhukov won the debate by convincing Stalin he would later regret losing all those divisions. In the end, only one division was left behind to delay the Germans. There was then a debate as to whether to tell those men they were playing the part of sacrificial lambs. A large number of commissars were ordered to join the unit to inspire the men to give their all for the Motherland!





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Post #: 43
Turn 10: Fight, Partisan, Fight! - 9/29/2020 12:02:21 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		A successful partisan attack near Vilnius. AGC is out of supply this turn. It did not stop them from advancing and re-pocketing my divisions along the Dnepr, but hopefully it will slow them down a bit buying me more time. It did stop German rail conversion, so 4 hexes less were converted this turn than otherwise would have been.

Questions on Partisans:
1) Does the German player see partisan airdrops? I have not seen any in the German side of this mirror match.
2) Are construction battalions dispatched automatically to repair these types of rail breaks?





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Post #: 44
Turn 10: center - 10/3/2020 10:13:38 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Although Leningrad has not fallen quite yet, its end is near. I will lose two divisions there as well as three more that were trying to escape the pocket on foot. With that the Germans are pulling out their panzers and sending them south. There is a wall of soviets along the Volkhov facing the remaining infantry. This will turn into a slog, no doubt, but the Germans don't have much more to gain in this sector and now appear to me shifting their focus to Moscow.

With the Panzers heading south, it would appear that Northwest Front will now become much more involved in the fighting. Besides the panzers shown below, their is another group around Pskov. It is likely the Germans may try to breakthrough south of the Ilmen. With this in mind I made two leadership changes in Northwestern Front: 24 Army is now commanded by Khozin while 11 Army is commanded by Belov. (Last turn I changed the leader of 13 Army (Western Front) to Fedyunnisky.

We opened a corridor to our divisions pocketed along the Dnepr once again, though I imagine this will be the last time.

I have been sliding forces northeast from around Gomel towards Vyazma in order to reinforce the approaches to Moscow. Next turn I will likely pull back to from Oster to the Besed.






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Post #: 45
Turn 10: south - Tiger by the tail - 10/3/2020 11:29:39 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		In the south, the Soviets are holding a tiger by the tail. We currently occupy the most favorable defensive terrain available in the south until we reach the Don. Yet our lines are getting stretched ever further. I would like to pull back, but where to? Once we abandon the Dnepr our troops will be out on the open steppe and will easily be overrun and pocketed. I would like to make an orderly retreat, but any retreat across non-defensible terrain will quickly become a route instead.

As far as factories are concerned:
Poltava has 6 armament
Stalino has 23 armament
Kharkov has its starting complement of factories except the vehicle factories which have been evacuated.





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< Message edited by cap_and_gown -- 10/3/2020 11:33:56 PM >

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Post #: 46
RE: Turn 10: south - Tiger by the tail - 10/3/2020 11:38:42 PM   
redrum68

 

Posts: 1202
Joined: 11/26/2017
Status: offline 		Question: why have your back up units that are on reserve 2 hexes back rather than right behind your front line?

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Post #: 47
RE: Turn 10: south - Tiger by the tail - 10/4/2020 12:20:35 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Super Kiev pocket looming for all those forces east of Bryansk and Kharkov. The Germans can run east faster than the Russians in clear terrain. You should be terrified of a breakthrough that a single high morale mech unit north and south can exploit, especially with 4th Panzer group on the way.

Need to be thick in front of the panzer fists and screen the landsers. Make the infantry fight you to take a wood hex or cross a river, but solid walls and reserve in front of Axis infantry screens seem like misallocation to me at this stage.
Being impenetrable actually serves the panzer spearheads because it keeps units west, deeper in the developing cauldrons.

I do like making the Germans fight to get east, but almost only in favorable terrain. Still hard to avoid getting gobbled in small chunks on the steppe.

(in reply to redrum68)
Post #: 48
RE: Turn 10: south - Tiger by the tail - 10/5/2020 1:04:09 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: redrum68

Question: why have your back up units that are on reserve 2 hexes back rather than right behind your front line?


When the secondary defense line was initially formed, it was actually part of a checkerboard: every other hex was covered. As more units arrived I simply positioned them in accordance with the already existing positions since those had already built up forts. I also felt that a breakthrough of the Dnepr would eat up a ton of MP, so having units 3 hexes back that were still fresh by the time any panzer got there would be better than having them involved almost right away; let the panzer tackle the first line units for the first couple of hexes, then force them to deal with fresh units.

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Post #: 49
Turn 12: guards units - 10/9/2020 6:01:09 AM   
CapAndGown2

 

Posts: 13
Joined: 10/7/2020
Status: offline 		I got two Shap's converted to guards status (flying Su-2s), 1 artillery regiment and 1 air base.

An air base? What does a guards air base do?

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Post #: 50
Turn 11 - 10/11/2020 10:33:23 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Things have quieted down in the north considerably since the Germans achieved a link up with the Finns around Leningrad. Leningrad itself has not fallen yet, but its days are numbered.

Now that German units can move into Karellia from Leningrad, our fortification line along the Karellian frontier is a liability. I need units that can actually retreat, not be shattered after one hasty attack. So 7th independent army is given the task of manning the defenses there.

German infantry are making a push south of lake Ilmen, but it is nothing serious yet.





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Post #: 51
Turn 11: Moscow - 10/11/2020 10:45:10 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		In the Moscow sector, the Germans are pushing forward. Almost all of our many, many reinforcements are flowing into the the defense of Moscow.

We did launch a few counter attacks. They were not meant to gain any ground or achieve any real easing of the pressure. Rather, the goal was to force the Germans to be somewhat cautious in their advance. The Red Army may be weak, but it still has teeth. These attacks would result in General Leitenant Purkaev being promoted to General Polkovnik on turn 12. I thus have added a new general to the list of men with high enough rank to command a front should I feel the need for new leadership. In addition, one of artillery regiments would achieve guard status.

On the subject of Front command: Kharkov M.D. transformed into Southern Ural M.D. and relocated to the far eastern edge of the map. With such distance between the M.D. HQ and its subordinate armies, whatever advantages there may have been to having Timoshenko in charge there were lost. As such, Timoshenko was reassigned to Reserve Front which had one of the worst Front commanders in existence.




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< Message edited by cap and gown -- 10/11/2020 10:53:59 PM >

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Post #: 52
Turn 11: the grand retreat - 10/11/2020 11:21:29 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		Kiev fell this turn. This is not, however, why I decided to begin withdrawing from the Dnepr. As I mentioned in post #46, already by turn 10 I was becoming very nervous about our lengthy line along the Dnepr. Indeed, that post was really a foreshadowing of our future plans. So now the big retreat begins.





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Post #: 53
Turn 11: Zaparozhe - 10/11/2020 11:35:48 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		The Germans crossed the Dnepr between Dnerpropetrovsk and Zaparozhe and encircled 4 divisions. In looking at this screen shot I now realize that if I had moved the division 1 hex southeast of Zaparozhe to the northeast instead of into Zaparozhe itself, I could have broken the encirclement, buying me one more turn as the Germans worked to reclose the pocket. Hindsight, and all.

A doctrinal note: you may have noticed I have several all-cavalry armies. Right now most cavalry division are not fit for front line service because their complement of cavalry squads is well below 100%, often below 50% of TOE. As such, I have relegated them to ditch digging, setting up defensive lines well in the rear of the front line. I can't, however, just leave them assigned to Stavka since they don't seem to be able to draw supply on their own, or at least not very efficiently. So I have taken armies with horrible leaders and assigned the cavalry divisions to them so they can funnel supply to these divisions.






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Post #: 54
Turn 12: the air war - 10/13/2020 2:15:58 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline 		I thought would comment on the air war.

I pulled all the I-153, I-153BS, and I-15bis back to the national reserve on turn 1 and have left them there. As newer airframes have become available, I have pulled them out of the national reserve and upgrades them. While I have been using the I-16, at this point they are mostly relegated to backwater commands: of 19 groups altogether, 7 are part of the Transcaucus air command and 6 are part of the Leningrad air command (the Leningrad Front has become a quiet sector). Another 4 groups are with the Volga air command getting ready to be upgraded.

As to air doctrine, I have turned off interdiction. I also have had ground support turned off except when my own troops are about to launch an attack. I don't wish to see my airforce chewed up to little effect. Soviet interdiction, in particular, based on what I have seen the German side of this mirror match, is especially futile: no impact on the enemy for the loss of a number of planes.

At the same time, I have cranked up interception to 200% and had "percent required to fly" at 10%. The idea was to whittle away at the Luftwaffe fighter force to make the skies somewhat safer for our bombers.

I have also been doing a good deal of unit bombing, panzers when I can, infantry otherwise. I don't, however, bomb everything in sight. I focus on units in clear terrain, no fortification, and a detection level of 10. So far this has gained me two guards ShaP units flying Su-2's.

German doctrine, meanwhile seems to be heavy on interdiction, especially with escorts which seem to be set at 200% or more. The Germans also have a practice of unit bombing two times any unit they are going to ground attack.

Between the interdiction, ground support, and unit bombing, the Luftwaffe is being bled white. In my German game I cringe when I see my Jagdgeschwader reduce to 20-30 ready aircraft. In this game, the Germans are looking at units with less that 10 aircraft ready to fly.

Based on this, I believe it is time for the Red Air Force to reenter the arena and turn ground support on during the enemy turn. If my bomber losses are high, I will turn it back off. For now, however, interdiction will remain off.





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Post #: 55
RE: Turn 12: the air war - 10/13/2020 3:33:47 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Just noticed you let a Mtn unit get captured.
Those are valuable for the winter offensive. Protect them. Few survive the Lviv pocket, and those with T Caucasus are late to the winter party.

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 56
RE: Turn 12: the air war - 10/13/2020 4:21:34 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Seminole

Just noticed you let a Mtn unit get captured.
Those are valuable for the winter offensive. Protect them. Few survive the Lviv pocket, and those with T Caucasus are late to the winter party.


Besides being higher morale units, what advantage do they have during the winter offensive?

(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 57
RE: Turn 12: the air war - 10/13/2020 4:23:10 AM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		No weather movement penalty, doubled CV in mountains (Crimea, Caucasus).

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 58
RE: Turn 12: the air war - 10/13/2020 11:42:05 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		The movement is the biggie.
You want to preserve cav units and the mtn troops to help you form ZOC locks and exploit any breakthroughs you achieve in the blizzard.
The soviets are so starved for mobility.
I like to try and preserve some tank divisions as well, just to avoid the +1 mp penalty brigades suffer, but that’s a crapshoot as they can ‘upgrade’ to brigades in place.

(in reply to eskuche)
Post #: 59
RE: Turn 12: the air war - 10/13/2020 4:42:38 PM   
chaos45

 

Posts: 1889
Joined: 1/22/2001
Status: offline 		also mountain divisions dont come back...least they didnt used to...so once your lose them they are gone forever....those are units you want to save at all cost..the morale bonus + eventual guards status makes them one of the stronger soviet divisions long run

(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 60
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