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RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR

 
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RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/10/2020 9:21:06 AM   
Oberost


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Joined: 12/17/2019
Status: offline 		Testing as required...

Edit: useless post by me, seems that Erik already solved the forum issues.

< Message edited by Oberost -- 10/10/2020 9:25:25 AM >

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 481
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/10/2020 4:12:01 PM   
rkr1958


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Oberost

Testing as required...

Edit: useless post by me, seems that Erik already solved the forum issues.

Thanks! Appreciate the check. All's good now.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 482
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/10/2020 4:17:23 PM   
rkr1958


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay


quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. US Entry.

1. Prior: GE/IT=42/30 (30% DOW Success) & JPN=38/29 (30%). US gets 2 draws.
2. 1st draw, GE/IT=4-val. GE/IT=48/30 (60%) & JPN=40/29 (40%).
3. 2nd draw, JPN=3-val. GE/IT=50/30 (70%) & JPN=45/29 (70%).
3. The US reaches the trigger point for both Germany/Italy and Japan to DOW the US.
4. If the allies move first then the US, starting with Germany/Italy, the allies will check to see if they attempt a DOW.
5. If D10 <= DOW %/10 then they will attempt. If they succeed at DOW on Germany/Italy or don't make the attempt then they will check to see if they attempt DOW on Japan.
6. Going to get interesting.

That #5 is very conservative. If the US has a 70% chance, they should take it, because their odds really can't improve very much. 60% is pretty good, too. 50% is dubious.


I agree against a human opponent at 70% as the US I would attempt the DOW. I'm trying to add some "fog of war" into this DOW decision for both sides. Realistically, human vs human the axis not knowing exactly where the US DOW %'s were at would likely have already DOW them. But possibly not ... hence my attempt with axis DOW trigger and US DOW probability trigger.

Honestly, there's some things I think I like how they were scripted (e.g., Japanese-USSR "uneasy" peace followed by non-aggression pact). And there are things I'm not so please with (Winter war and Finland).

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Ronnie

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Post #: 483
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 1:50:39 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. WACS.

1. As can be gleamed from this turn's Weather, Action, Combat Summary (WACS), the US is brought into the war. More on that in a bit.
2. I also made a script change regarding oil.

Script Change.
I decided to revoke the limitations I place on only using saved oil for reorg and not being able to use saved oil for production. I'm going to revert back to MWiF RAC/WiF RAW wrt/oil. After a lot of thought I decided that I was trying to make an abstraction (e.g., how oil and production are modelled in MWiF have a more "historical" feel. These two abstractions have evolved over 1,000,000's hours of play and I decided I should just leave it alone and play it as coded.






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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 484
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 1:52:18 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Resource Lending/Grants.

1. Axis: No changes made to discretionary grants, which is (only) Germany to Italy, 5 non-oil RPs.
2. Allied: CW increases their discretionary grants by 1 non-oil to USSR. With war likely this turn the US stops their 2 oil to CW
3. Allied discretionary grants are: (1) CW to USSR,3 non-oil and (2) Free France to China, 1 non-oil.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 485
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 1:57:47 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Initiative.

1. Axis +1 and win ties.
2. Axis=4+1=5, Allied=8. Allies with the first roll.
3. Given all that's at stake even with the lousy weather forecast for Europe, the axis elect to re-roll.
4. No advantage for 2nd roll but axis still win ties.
5. Axis=4, Allied=4, and a good thing they do. Axis win the initiative and elect to move first.

A bit of elaboration on #3 above is necessary. What's at stake is that if the allies get the initiative and move first then there's a very good chance that the US will "preemptively" DOW Japan and Japan will lose the surprise advantage necessary to invade the Dutch East Indies, Philippines and elsewhere.

Now speaking of Japan declaring war on the US, well actually the Western Allies. Frankly speaking Japan is only partially prepared for their DOW on the Western Allies. However, with the US at 70% DOW success (for both Japan and Germany) it was imperative that the axis move first and get the jump on the US before they could get the jump on them. Japan has four key units (Yamamoto HQ-I, Imp Guard Mar, 1st inf div & 2nd inf div) tied up in Southern China against the Nationalist and with no short-term disengagement of these units in sight. This leaves them with the bare minimum of forces for their surprise invasion impulse to take key oil RPs, Hong Kong, Rabul, invade the Philippines and Malaya. In fact, getting forces down to Malaya will require double duty of the two divisions that are to take the Balikpapan and Tarakan Oil.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 486
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:01:28 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. IJN Post Naval (Overview).




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Ronnie

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Post #: 487
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:02:11 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. IJN Post Naval (Detailed).




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Ronnie

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Post #: 488
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:04:57 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. Combat Logs.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 489
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:07:16 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. South China Sea.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 490
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:08:02 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #1. Rabul.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 491
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:09:24 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #3. Post Naval. Pacific.




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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 10/29/2020 2:10:14 AM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 492
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:10:03 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #3. Post Naval. The Marshalls.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 493
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:11:40 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #3. Combat Logs.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 494
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:14:20 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #8. Combat Logs.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 495
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:15:45 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #8. Marshalls and Surrounding Areas.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 496
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:16:59 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Allied #8. South China Sea. Philippines.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 497
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:18:00 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #11. Combat Logs.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 498
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:18:35 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific. Axis #11. Manila.




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Ronnie

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RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:30:07 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Asian. Combat Logs.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 500
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:30:41 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #1. China.




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Ronnie

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RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:31:09 AM   
rkr1958


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Ronnie

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Post #: 502
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:31:38 AM   
rkr1958


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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Allied #8. China.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 503
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:32:07 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #11. China.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 504
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:33:02 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Atlantic. Axis #1. Post Naval Move.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 505
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:35:25 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Atlantic. Axis #1. Combat Logs.




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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 10/29/2020 2:36:17 AM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 506
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:37:33 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Atlantic. Allied #3. Post Naval.





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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 507
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:37:55 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Atlantic. Allied #3. Combat Logs.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 508
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:40:08 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Med. Axis #1. Post Naval.




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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 509
RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR - 10/29/2020 2:40:56 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
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Status: offline 		Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Med. Axis #1. Combat Logs.




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Ronnie

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