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$3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multiplayer strategy game

 
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$3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multiplayer... - 12/25/2020 6:11:51 PM   
billcorr

 

Posts: 32
Joined: 10/2/2015
Status: offline 		There appears to be a potential market for WW2 multiplayer strategy game that has the following characteristics:

--Supports 30+ players at at time
--Real-time, variable speed (not "I-go-you-go", however, players can speed up or slow down or pause the game)
--Allows players to implement various instruments of national power (Diplomacy, Information(research), Military, Economy)
--Easy-to-understand game mechanics
--Playable minor nations

What other characteristics can you think of?

The potential market is based on the daily player count and total number of sales of Hearts of Iron IV, a WW2-themed sandbox game that emphasizes alternative history...and focuses on the singleplayer experience.

--HoI4 has a daily player count fluctuating between 25000 to 30000 players (SteamChart.com)
--HoI4 has total sales since 2016 between 2 mil to 6.7 mil copies (steamdb.info/app/394360/graphs/)
--HoI4 playerbase sees 13% to 14% playing in multiplayer mode (https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/goto/post?id=22926462)

However, the multiplayer experience in HoI4 is fraught with bugs and imbalances. HoI4 is not designed for the multiplayer market. Customers who wish to play multiplayer HoI4 rely on customer-made mods. This reliance on mods fractures the HoI4 multiplayer customer base into multiple gaming fiefdoms.

Assuming the following:

Since 2016, HoI4 sold 4.35 million copies (average of the steamdb high and low estimates)
--10% play in multiplayer mode
---Thus, 434000 customers interested in multiplayer
----20% of those 434000 would buy another WW2 multiplayer game
-----$40 per game
------$3.472 mil gross

This $3.472 mil estimate is a rough back-of-the envelope calculation. What is missing from the assumptions or math?

I probably overlooked some important features.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by billcorr -- 12/25/2020 6:34:05 PM >
Post #: 1
RE: 2500 players per day: Potential Market for WW2 mul... - 12/25/2020 6:30:44 PM   
billcorr

 

Posts: 32
Joined: 10/2/2015
Status: offline 		For comparison, here are the daily players for a 2 player WW2 game:

https://steamcharts.com/app/957720#3m







Attachment (1)

< Message edited by billcorr -- 12/25/2020 6:31:30 PM >

(in reply to billcorr)
Post #: 2
RE: 2500 players per day: Potential Market for WW2 mul... - 12/26/2020 9:23:07 AM   
Mobeer


Posts: 662
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline 		Not sure how achievable such a game is. You cannot combine variable speed with 30+ players because they would not agree on the speed. Playable minor nations might be popular with some players but they might then feel aggreved if other players get to have major nations

Hearts of Iron IV seems to do well in part of all the DLC, which bring in more money and brings players back to the game. However different players owning different DLC makes online gaming more difficult (in general).

If I was a game producer\publisher looking at Hearts of Iron IV, I would conclude:
- 86% of players play single player (in a game primarily aimed at single player)
- DLC makes a lot of money, even when the core game is frequently discounted

(in reply to billcorr)
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RE: 2500 players per day: Potential Market for WW2 mul... - 12/26/2020 11:04:59 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		I stopped at HOI2.

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(in reply to Mobeer)
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RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 12/26/2020 1:24:54 PM   
pzgndr

 

Posts: 3170
Joined: 3/18/2004
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Hell no. Howzabout PC wargame adaptations for Avalon Hill classics like Afrika Korps, Russian Campaign, etc.? Turn-based, hex-based, simple counters, CRTs, challenging computer opponent. No area-movements, no card draws, no bullshit. Howzabout that? For a fraction of the cost for a $3.472 million rough back-of-the-envelope calculation. If anybody out there cares...

(in reply to billcorr)
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RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 12/26/2020 2:22:45 PM   
MrsWargamer


Posts: 1655
Joined: 6/18/2014
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quote:

ORIGINAL: pzgndr

Hell no. Howzabout PC wargame adaptations for Avalon Hill classics like Afrika Korps, Russian Campaign, etc.? Turn-based, hex-based, simple counters, CRTs, challenging computer opponent. No area-movements, no card draws, no bullshit. Howzabout that? For a fraction of the cost for a $3.472 million rough back-of-the-envelope calculation. If anybody out there cares...



Damn right.

_____________________________

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Play with Barbies 05% of the time.
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Build models 20% of the time
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Exlains why I buy em more than I play em.

(in reply to pzgndr)
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RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 12/26/2020 2:49:31 PM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9511
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pzgndr
Hell no. Howzabout PC wargame adaptations for Avalon Hill classics like Afrika Korps, Russian Campaign, etc.? Turn-based, hex-based, simple counters, CRTs, challenging computer opponent. No area-movements, no card draws, no bullshit. Howzabout that? For a fraction of the cost for a $3.472 million rough back-of-the-envelope calculation. If anybody out there cares...

Hallelujah

HOI isn't a Strategic Simulation nor a Wargame, it's an asset management game. It is a widely popular title, and while I am not knowledgeable in the marketing field I assume that most of that popularity derives from being able to do what you want. So while there is a market for an HOI-type game I am not interested. I am interested in the suggestions of Mr. Pzgndr, but I would guess that the cost of obtaining the rights to such games would not be cost effective. I am even more interested in a serious Operational Level Strategic Simulation, of which there are none in the market [the only two choices that I know of have negative development issues].

(in reply to pzgndr)
Post #: 7
RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 12/26/2020 3:15:11 PM   
GenSlack

 

Posts: 72
Joined: 6/14/2001
Status: offline 		For guys like you and me that is a slam dunk but apparently the PC wargame publishing world has passed us by. For the life of me I'll never understand how the majority of today's wargamers have entirely bought into the notion that newer is better and the classic hex and counters systems are relics of the past. I still shake my head at the fact that no hex-and-counter strategic-level Napoleonic Wars game has ever existed (I don't count that no-stacking Commander abomination).

quote:

ORIGINAL: pzgndr

Hell no. Howzabout PC wargame adaptations for Avalon Hill classics like Afrika Korps, Russian Campaign, etc.? Turn-based, hex-based, simple counters, CRTs, challenging computer opponent. No area-movements, no card draws, no bullshit. Howzabout that? For a fraction of the cost for a $3.472 million rough back-of-the-envelope calculation. If anybody out there cares...



(in reply to pzgndr)
Post #: 8
RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 12/26/2020 3:20:13 PM   
Aurelian

 

Posts: 3916
Joined: 2/26/2007
Status: offline 		Played HOI 3 multiplayer twice. Both times isn't wasn't worth the trouble. First time was no one could agree on a speed. The second time one guy wanted to play a minor power, changed a few things, and screwed the whole game up.

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(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 9
RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 12/26/2020 5:09:43 PM   
pzgndr

 

Posts: 3170
Joined: 3/18/2004
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653
HOI isn't a Strategic Simulation nor a Wargame


+1 Steve. I was so disappointed with HOI that Paradox is a persona-non-grata developer to me. Them and AGEOD. Can't stand them, won't play their products. Buh bye.

quote:

ORIGINAL: GenSlack
For guys like you and me that is a slam dunk but apparently the PC wargame publishing world has passed us by. For the life of me I'll never understand how the majority of today's wargamers have entirely bought into the notion that newer is better and the classic hex and counters systems are relics of the past. I still shake my head at the fact that no hex-and-counter strategic-level Napoleonic Wars game has ever existed (I don't count that no-stacking Commander abomination).


+1. "They" forgot all about KISS, Keep-It-Simple-Stupid. It's all about more detail and bells&whistles for micromanagement in war simulations. The "game" part of wargame where players play the game and play it over and over again because they enjoy it. There are, of course, players who seem to relish playing a game to exploit weaknesses and employ unrealistic "gotcha" tactics to win, or else whine incessantly about some obscure detail that isn't historically accurate that caused them to lose. I don't have patience for that nonsense. Regarding Napoleonic Wars, AH War and Peace was hex-and-counter strategic-level. And Empires in Arms, but that has area provinces in lieu of hexes.


(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 10
RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 12/26/2020 5:22:10 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		A simple one to start with might be "Tobruk" by Avalon Hill. Simple map, just don't go accidentally hull down with your M3 Grant and block the 75mm. For those who malign the Grant, it did rule the desert for a few months, then did remarkable work against the Japanese in SEAC. My brother, the T'urd, was/is one of those who maligned the Grant.

Unfortunately, I no longer have the game.

My brother, the T'urd, quit playing Afrika Korps because he attacked me then I counterattacked and I captured his last supply and he did not receive any more . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to pzgndr)
Post #: 11
RE: 2500 players per day: Potential Market for WW2 mul... - 12/26/2020 9:58:27 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I stopped at HOI2.

HoI3, "finally finished" with the "Their Finest Hour Expansion" is pretty good. More, you can pick it up for a bunch of peanuts. At "Very Hard" it offers, IMHO, a realistic challenge - but the real strength are the mods. From the stunning mess of a launch (no one will ever forget the weather model: in a game the Afrika Korps was stopped cold by two years of snow in the Western Desert ) Paradox managed to claw back and give us a fine game - i.e. what is not happening with HoI4

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(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 12
RE: 2500 players per day: Potential Market for WW2 mul... - 12/27/2020 1:44:28 AM   
demyansk


Posts: 2840
Joined: 2/20/2008
Status: offline 		I don’t like the games with the cards, basic hex and counters. Except, I like the way Battle Academy 1 and 2 play. I downloaded war across the world and just can’t get into the area movement and cards.

(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 13
RE: 2500 players per day: Potential Market for WW2 mul... - 1/6/2021 9:44:18 PM   
billcorr

 

Posts: 32
Joined: 10/2/2015
Status: offline 		The $3.472 million would be earned in a market that Matrix -- AFAIK -- is currently not involved in (please correct me if I'm wrong).

A new market.

-- Multiplayer (20 to 40 gamers)
-- Real-time (variable speed)
-- Modifiable (that is, if players wish, they can mod the game)


The customers are already there: Paradox Interactive Hearts of Iron IV has roughly 3,900 players per day (out of 30,000 total per day) that play the WW2-themed strategy game in multiplayer mode.

But Hearts of Iron IV does not focus on the multiplayer experience. The game is not balanced for multiplayer and does not embrace the multiplayer community.

Another WW2-themed strategy game could take market share from Paradox Interactive...and grow the multiplayer base.

Many readers on this forum do not enjoy the HoI4 style of game, preferring the SPI, Avalon Hill, Australian Design Group table top games.

This thread is looking at expanding (not replacing) the WW2 strategy game market. Turned based games are important and there is a market for them.

There is money to be made with a multiplayer (20 to 40) WW2 strategy game that emphasizes the multiplayer gaming aspect.




< Message edited by billcorr -- 1/6/2021 9:48:43 PM >

(in reply to demyansk)
Post #: 14
RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 1/6/2021 10:05:39 PM   
Freyr Oakenshield


Posts: 541
Joined: 4/25/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: billcorr

There appears to be a potential market for WW2 multiplayer strategy game that has the following characteristics:

--Supports 30+ players at at time
--Real-time, variable speed (not "I-go-you-go", however, players can speed up or slow down or pause the game)
--Allows players to implement various instruments of national power (Diplomacy, Information(research), Military, Economy)
--Easy-to-understand game mechanics
--Playable minor nations

What other characteristics can you think of?

The potential market is based on the daily player count and total number of sales of Hearts of Iron IV, a WW2-themed sandbox game that emphasizes alternative history...and focuses on the singleplayer experience.

--HoI4 has a daily player count fluctuating between 25000 to 30000 players (SteamChart.com)
--HoI4 has total sales since 2016 between 2 mil to 6.7 mil copies (steamdb.info/app/394360/graphs/)
--HoI4 playerbase sees 13% to 14% playing in multiplayer mode (https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/goto/post?id=22926462)

However, the multiplayer experience in HoI4 is fraught with bugs and imbalances. HoI4 is not designed for the multiplayer market. Customers who wish to play multiplayer HoI4 rely on customer-made mods. This reliance on mods fractures the HoI4 multiplayer customer base into multiple gaming fiefdoms.

Assuming the following:

Since 2016, HoI4 sold 4.35 million copies (average of the steamdb high and low estimates)
--10% play in multiplayer mode
---Thus, 434000 customers interested in multiplayer
----20% of those 434000 would buy another WW2 multiplayer game
-----$40 per game
------$3.472 mil gross

This $3.472 mil estimate is a rough back-of-the envelope calculation. What is missing from the assumptions or math?

I probably overlooked some important features.






Sadly, I don't think it's gonna work... You'd probably end up with something like Call of War...

But I wish you best of luck on journey of realising your massively-multiplayer wargaming dreams...

< Message edited by Freyr Oakenshield -- 1/6/2021 10:09:05 PM >

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(in reply to billcorr)
Post #: 15
RE: 2500 players per day: Potential Market for WW2 mul... - 1/6/2021 10:31:45 PM   
gamer78

 

Posts: 536
Joined: 8/17/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: billcorr

The $3.472 million would be earned in a market that Matrix -- AFAIK -- is currently not involved in (please correct me if I'm wrong).

A new market.

-- Multiplayer (20 to 40 gamers)
-- Real-time (variable speed)
-- Modifiable (that is, if players wish, they can mod the game)


The customers are already there: Paradox Interactive Hearts of Iron IV has roughly 3,900 players per day (out of 30,000 total per day) that play the WW2-themed strategy game in multiplayer mode.




I don't know about customer base but maybe their games not only about American market?

(in reply to billcorr)
Post #: 16
RE: 2500 players per day: Potential Market for WW2 mul... - 1/7/2021 1:00:09 AM   
billcorr

 

Posts: 32
Joined: 10/2/2015
Status: offline
quote:

I don't know about customer base but maybe their games not only about American market?


Correct.

Hearts of Iron IV primary customer base is the USA and England (and other English speaking nations).

But it is also popular worldwide, to include Germany and Turkey.

(this is older data scraped from memory, but the information about where games are played is available at SteamSpy.com ...but it is behind a paywall. I used to pay for the information, but then I economized and no longer have access to geographical information.)

_____________________________

Bill_Corr

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Post #: 17
RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 1/7/2021 2:58:33 AM   
Lobster


Posts: 5104
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

quote:

ORIGINAL: pzgndr
Hell no. Howzabout PC wargame adaptations for Avalon Hill classics like Afrika Korps, Russian Campaign, etc.? Turn-based, hex-based, simple counters, CRTs, challenging computer opponent. No area-movements, no card draws, no bullshit. Howzabout that? For a fraction of the cost for a $3.472 million rough back-of-the-envelope calculation. If anybody out there cares...

Hallelujah

HOI isn't a Strategic Simulation nor a Wargame, it's an asset management game. It is a widely popular title, and while I am not knowledgeable in the marketing field I assume that most of that popularity derives from being able to do what you want. So while there is a market for an HOI-type game I am not interested. I am interested in the suggestions of Mr. Pzgndr, but I would guess that the cost of obtaining the rights to such games would not be cost effective. I am even more interested in a serious Operational Level Strategic Simulation, of which there are none in the market [the only two choices that I know of have negative development issues].


What they said.

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(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 18
RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 1/7/2021 3:29:27 AM   
MrsWargamer


Posts: 1655
Joined: 6/18/2014
Status: offline 		Not sure how many know, but Hasbro, Hasborg as I see it. owns the AH brand. That means Up Front, ASL, Panzerblit/Leader, all the great flatbox titles.

And Hasborg, for reasons no one can ever manage to figure out, don't wish to produce any new content. MMP had to beg to be allowed to get ASL content to the market. And they do a lousy job of that, with items frequently unavailable.

So while it would be great to get old AH titles again, or in digital, it isn't going to happen. Because Hasborg is real c*nts.



_____________________________

Wargame, 05% of the time.
Play with Barbies 05% of the time.
Play with Legos 10% of the time.
Build models 20% of the time
Shopping 60% of the time.
Exlains why I buy em more than I play em.

(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 19
RE: $3.472 mil gross: Potential Market for WW2 multipl... - 1/8/2021 12:25:04 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

Not sure how many know, but Hasbro, Hasborg as I see it. owns the AH brand. That means Up Front, ASL, Panzerblit/Leader, all the great flatbox titles.

And Hasborg, for reasons no one can ever manage to figure out, don't wish to produce any new content. MMP had to beg to be allowed to get ASL content to the market. And they do a lousy job of that, with items frequently unavailable.

So while it would be great to get old AH titles again, or in digital, it isn't going to happen. Because Hasborg is real c*nts.




Yes, Hasbro Can't Understand Normal Thinking!

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to MrsWargamer)
Post #: 20
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