Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

How about if the Montenegrin Detachment starts entrenched, does that increase its survivability?

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ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

Tried giving the detachment strength 10 to start and then entrenching. It still dies reliably to the same hitsquad when I rail Hindenberg over. Not a significant difference.

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ORIGINAL: shri

I guess if a good Entente player is present, he can exploit East Prussia in return for that Gambit, so let it be as it is. The Germans losing NM is more important than teeny tiny MonteNegro surviving. The game is all about German NM.

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ORIGINAL: mdsmall

What this new gambit has in common with the much-discussed Bulgarian Gambit are the outsized effects in the game of capturing a minor capital before it goes to war or on the first turn of the war. If a second capital is given to Montenegro in Pec, then a second capital should be given to Bulgaria too and vice-versa. It makes the Balkans a fractious and crowded political space - but that's what made them "the Balkans" in the early the 20th century.

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ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

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ORIGINAL: mdsmall

What this new gambit has in common with the much-discussed Bulgarian Gambit are the outsized effects in the game of capturing a minor capital before it goes to war or on the first turn of the war. If a second capital is given to Montenegro in Pec, then a second capital should be given to Bulgaria too and vice-versa. It makes the Balkans a fractious and crowded political space - but that's what made them "the Balkans" in the early the 20th century.

The Balkans are already a fractious place as the image of a MP Fafnir and I had back in July 2020 illustrates

Still, Chernobyl's Montenegrin Gambit is quite devastating to the Entente. I agree with that. Maybe the solution is a second capital for Montenegro and an entrenched 10 str. detachment at Cetinje. Its all about delaying the CP until Albania joins the Entente so that possibly..and I mean only possibly, the Entente can get token help through Tirana.

I wouldn't tie giving a second capital to Montenegro with giving an extra to Bulgaria though. That's a different situation entirely. For Bulgaria, the simple solution is the swapping of the existing units on the map upon the declaration of war. Why not a second capital for Bulgaria? The main reason is that the Bulgarians surrendered when the road was layed open to Sofia in 1918 with the Salonika Front collapsed on them.

Another observation I can see with the consequences of a player pulling this gambit has to do with the AI. While the AI is workman like and competent on the whole...it really can't handle strategic surprises like this.
In a MP match..with FoW on of course, this gambit is also potentially devastating to the Entente, who might not realize what the CP player is doing down here for a few turns until its too late to react with a powerful counter punch from Poland into Germany proper.

Well, Chernobyl...another devilish stratagem from your wickedly creative mind has us all in a tussle...bravo!

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ORIGINAL: Bavre

In principle, yes. However without a miracle the death of teeny tiny Montenegro will lead to a quick death of the entire balkan front. It takes a sizeable chunk out of Serbias tight budget and with albania not joining it also prevents any reinforcements until greece joins, which will probably be to late. If the german striketeam can even stay on the balkans for 2-3 more turns Serbia will die VERY quickly with all the snowballing that brings.
And if east prussia gets really dire the troops can be back up there in 1-2 turns. I think the point here really is, that for a relatively modest fee in MPP the CP can start an avalanche that all but ensures, that the Entente stands zero chance in this theater, Bulgaria will be in early, the inner line is complete and the Turks can be supported in time if needed etc.

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ORIGINAL: stockwellpete

I have just run a test using my mod. I made the hex immediately to the north of Cetinje "high mountains" (there is a relatively high mountain there - Mount Lovcen) and I made the Montenegrin Detachment in Cetinje strength 10. It was not entrenched. I then operated 4xGerman Infantry Corps to hexes 183,99 182,99 181,98 and 180,98 with a German HQ unit, which put them in a row along the road leading to Cetinje. The A-H unit there (16 Corps) went up to the "high mountain" hex at 183,99.

The attack sequence was as follows . . .

German Infantry Corps number 1 - odds were 1-3 against, lost combat 0-3
German Infantry Corps number 2 - odds were 1-3 against, lost combat 2-3
German Infantry Corps number 3 - odds were 2-3 against, lost combat 3-4 so Montenegrin unit down to 5 strength points
German Infantry Corps number 4 - odds were 3-3 level, lost combat 3-4
A-H unit number 1 from high mtns - odds were 2-2 level, drew combat 2-2 so Montenegrin unit was destroyed

2nd German unit occupied Cetinje.

I'll do the test again in Hot Seat and entrench the Montenegrin unit in Cetinje. I am not sure but maybe those combat results were a bit favourable to the Central Powers and in another test where the casualties were a bit lower for both sides then the Montenegrin unit would have held on. Of course, it may have fallen on the next turn anyway, unless a fresh Serbian unit could have replaced it. But I think it would definitely have survived if it had been entrenched.

So increasing the strength of the Montenegrin Detachment to 10 and entrenching it (plus possibly adding the high mountain hex to the north of Cetinje) could do the trick in terms of this particular gambit. Could the CP player afford to operate 5 units there to take Cetinje? What consequences might it have for the CP elsewhere?

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ORIGINAL: Bavre

What CP General was this? Did you manually attach the corps? Because those odds look a lot worse than they should be.

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ORIGINAL: stockwellpete

It was Albrecht Rating 5 and I had manually attached the corps.

I have just done the same test as before in Hot Seat. Montenegrin unit entrenched . . .

First German attack lost 2-4
Second German attack lost 1-4
Third German attack drew 2-2, Montenegrins down to 5 strength points
Fourth German attack won 4-1 (!), Montenegrin unit forced out of Cetinje
A-H attack from high mountains drew 1-1, Montenegrin unit destroyed

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ORIGINAL: Bavre

Ah, I did the test with the lvl 6 HQ and 3 ger corps with xp 1. Lost 2 AH and 4 Ger strenght points, got slightly lucky with the rolls however.
Does the high mountain actually do anything (lower supply or attack malus like a swamp)?

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ORIGINAL: stockwellpete

Further testing this morning, very interesting. I changed the terrain in hex 183,99 from hills to mountains. Supply remained unchanged at 9 because of the railway but the Austro-Hungarian unit was no longer able to move on to the new "high mountain" hex at 184,99 (directly north of Cetinje). So the attack now has to come along the railway line from Ragusa and the A-H unit can attack from the mountain hex 183,98. The Detachment defending Cetinje was attached to the Serbian HQ unit.

Test 1 - Germans took Cetinje in 3 attacks, losses (German losses first) 4-3, 1-3, 3-4
Test 2 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 3-1, 3-1, 3-2 AH unit 1-1
Test 3 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 4-2, 1-0, 4-2, AH unit 1-1
Test 4 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 4-1, 3-2, 1-2, AH unit 1-2
Test 5 - Cetinje held after 4 attacks, losses 2-3, 2-1, 2-2, AH unit 2-3

It seems that if you toughen up the terrain around Cetinje and attach the defending Detachment to the Serbian HQ then there is a reasonable chance of defending Cetinje. The next turn the South Serb Infantry Corp can go into Cetinje to relieve the besieged Detachment. Also worth considering is whether the DE that allows a second Serbian HQ could be brought forward a week.

The next turn when the South Serb Infantry Corps gets into Cetinje means that the German attack will fail with heavy casualties.

Who knows anything about the Sanjak Corps? They seem to be a huge unit for the Montenegrin army to have.

There should not be a railway between Cetinje and Pec, I believe.

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ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

This is very interesting. I always thought the approaches to Cetinje were a little too accessible. So, having a high mountain tile on 184/99 seems to approximate Mt. Lovcen, also called 'Mt Doom' by the Montenegrins in WW1.(realistically it would be placed on the coastal hex NW of Cetinje but placing any terrain tile at this scale is an abstraction).

Apparently, Mt Lovcen, which is a huge massif, wasn't taken until Jan 1916 by the Austro-Hungarians. When they did, then Cetinje fell shortly afterward.

Nice test Stockwellpete. I'm going to add this to the Trento/Alta Adige edit and give it a whirl...it seems you found a very good solution that's realistic and reasonable.

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ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

One question is exactly what is our goal? Do we want to make it impossible for the Centrals to take out Montenegro on their second turn, or just risky?

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ORIGINAL: Chernobyl

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ORIGINAL: Tendraline
On the other hand, I'm confused when you say that the city's "hex bonus" disappears if you surround it on all three hexes.

Try it for yourself. Place a unit on 2 sides of the city and look at your attack predictor. Then surround the city from 3 sides and look at your attack predictor. You IMMEDIATELY get a better attack (no need to wait a turn for supply effects to happen). The defender seems to not be getting any defensive bonus from the city, but ONLY if it's completely surrounded WITH a unit in each surrounding hex. I don't completely understand it but I think there is something built into the game that makes defense weaker if you are cut off?

Again to be clear this is NOT supply. That's an additional effect that happens later to the defender.

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ORIGINAL: Tendraline
upgrade an HQ
Not sure where you got the cavalry though.

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ORIGINAL: Chernobyl]
One question is exactly what is our goal? Do we want to make it impossible for the Centrals to take out Montenegro on their second turn, or just risky?

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ORIGINAL: shri

Someone already suggested- Why not spawn the MonteNegro HQ and Corps at the end of 1st Entente turn via Decision? This will make the front tougher but deprive choice of Serbia to have a 2nd HQ, which is a fair trade-off.
This coupled with the Monte unit starting entrenched or at full strength should be enough.

The CP player is spending a lot of MPP railing in corps and a HQ and that gambit should have some chance of success.