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The Montenegro Gambit - 2/22/2021 11:57:58 PM

Bavre

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Edit: There have been some big changes in patch 1.05, so some of the stuff I'm exploiting here won't (thankfully) work any more!

Based on Chernobyls very popular and thought provoking thread
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4956763
OldCrowBalthazor and I have decided to give it a human vs human try and document the steps from both sides.

So here is the situation at turn 1:

4 German veteran Corps have been railed in to support AH, while the AH troops focused an weakening the Serbs.
The Serb Corps at Uzice and south of Belgrade both lost 2 points, the Valjevo Detachment was killed.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Bavre -- 5/20/2021 4:34:27 PM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/23/2021 4:03:56 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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Well, Bavre opened up the war with a strong Russia First operation...and even a thrust towards Vinnitsa, disrupting Russia's deployments in western Ukraine. The Germans have operated an army group to Dalmatia for an assault on Cetinje, Montenegro, and the Serbs have had to retreat to the Pec-Nish Line once it was clear that AH's 2nd Army deployed for Serbia.

Cetinje has to hold out till Albania gets in the war. The Western Entente has contingency plans for the possibility that Centinje falls and Albania stays neutral however. :)

Britain is neutral at the moment...but the Royal Navy is active. There no reports of German naval activity in the Baltic, which is deemed by some of the old codgers at the Admiralty as 'highly suspicious'.

This is going to be good fun!

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/23/2021 9:41:04 AM

shri

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So, if i understand right - -
1. Bavre let go of Schlieffen to pull this coup?
2. He seems to have pulled cavalry also to Serbia, so who is covering Galicia? Doesn't the steamroller go BRR...

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/23/2021 3:26:13 PM

BillRunacre

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Great stuff, hopefully this will be both fun and enlightening!

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/23/2021 5:05:39 PM

Chernobyl

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That serbian corps you railed to Cetinje is going to die. That alone is too big of a blow for Serbia. You need that corps.

On the main front I think that unentrenched 8 str corps should be the target. The serbs failed to occupy the mountain hex south of Uzice so there's no zone of control slowing you down coming from the west/Sarajevo. The Austrians committed 2 cavalry which both could in theory attack that unentrenched unit next turn. However it will probably retreat before it comes to that. Still, severely damaging that corps does blow a hole open in the Serbian lines, which they don't have time to fully occupy. Their corps are in need of repair. Not to mention their best corps went to Cetinje, where it should die (usually I send an Austrian cavalry down there to make sure of this)

You could also potentially place that str 5 detachment you rushed down into the hex northeast of Novi Sad. This will cause a corps to spawn one hex further south, which might be a slight improvement on initial unit placement (you could place that cavalry where the detachment currently is, which places it closer to the enemy)

< Message edited by Chernobyl -- 2/23/2021 5:24:52 PM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/23/2021 5:08:43 PM

Chernobyl

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I will also mention it doesn't appear your austrian corps southeast of belgrade entrenched. I believe in some cases this gives Serbia a decent chance to get a nice counterattack on that unit, usually forcing it to retreat.

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/23/2021 8:14:24 PM

Bavre

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Gentlemen, here's the next round:

OldCrows gamble of operating the Serbian Corps to Cetinje played out exactly as Chernobyl predicted. Interestingly enough the combat odds were 100% identical to those I would have gotten vs the str 10 ground cover 3 detachment.
Even despite somewhat bad rng Cetinje fell easyly with room to spare.
On the bright side (not shown in picture), one of the Montenegro detachments made its 20% role and will bravely fight on.
The Serb situation as a whole however is lucking VERY bad. Seeing the Serbs had only left their last detachment in Belgrade to fight a brave but hopeless rearguard action, the CP decided to sacrifice their prepared attacks on Belgrade and instead opted to run down the retreating Serbs. The results were devastating: all that is left of the Serbian army are 4 Corps, 3 of which have <= 3 str left and the Pec-Nish line is broken.
Belgrade also fell by surrounding it with 6 units. 2 of them were just token str 5 detachments, but the ring nevertheless negated Belgrade City bonus, making the defenders easy prey.

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< Message edited by Bavre -- 2/23/2021 8:26:06 PM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/23/2021 8:17:56 PM

OldCrowBalthazor

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Well, seems Montenegro is kaput. So will be Serbia soon. There is nothing that the Entente can do on the first turn to stop this. I was hoping to get a French unit to Cetinje on turn 2. Hmmm...I never have been rolled like this down here. Now Albania is going to be neutral. No back door for Serbia and no chance for Western Entente intervention. Yikes!

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< Message edited by OldCrowBalthazor -- 2/23/2021 8:36:04 PM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/23/2021 8:40:33 PM

Bavre

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quote:

ORIGINAL: shri

So, if i understand right - -
1. Bavre let go of Schlieffen to pull this coup?
2. He seems to have pulled cavalry also to Serbia, so who is covering Galicia? Doesn't the steamroller go BRR...

I'm going all east, steamroller has a Hindenburg sized problem elsewhere.

In the context of an all east strategy the M-gambit is even more beneficial/necessary. There is now no pressure on France and GB, making them loose canons with the ability to intervene massively on the balkans. If only they had a harbor

< Message edited by Bavre -- 2/23/2021 8:41:57 PM >

(in reply to shri)

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/24/2021 1:46:28 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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You know...now that I know Cetinje was certain to fall...I would of turtled Serbia and considered something really drastic..like the Bulgarian Gambit on a suicide run with the Serbs...at least I would have a place to run haha!

Maybe a second test would be warranted to see if I could pull that off...oh well..off to the next turn to see how bad the Ententes NM is with Montenegro liquidated :)

o7

btw, the combat odds you described for the Serb corp I operated to Cetinje being the same as just entrenching the Montenegrin detachment could be because operating any unit causes its readiness and morale to go down significantly and then recovers later. I almost never operate a unit next to an enemy unit, but I wanted to see if it would at least survive to 1 pt...and then I'd push another unit in there. I have a French corp in Marseille ready to sail to at least Tirana...if not Cetinje the turn after.

well...I'll pull my turn and record this total defeat.

(in reply to Bavre)

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/24/2021 3:52:58 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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Yep...should of just left a token resistance in Cetinje with the Montenegrin detachment....and turtled in the south. With Albania neutral, there would be no way for the Serbs to escape...but the CP would have to dig the survivors out all the way to Uskub. Still..with no MMP's coming in....rump Serbia wouldn't last long. It probably all be over before the snows fell.

What a disaster!

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/24/2021 3:56:24 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bavre

In the context of an all east strategy the M-gambit is even more beneficial/necessary. There is now no pressure on France and GB, making them loose canons with the ability to intervene massively on the balkans. If only they had a harbor

Yep....no harbors, no intervening in the Balkans.

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/24/2021 6:51:33 AM

stockwellpete

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I am fairly convinced that terrain changes to the 2 hexes north and west of Cetinje would help a lot here. The mountainous hexes are often far too benign in this game.

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/24/2021 12:01:52 PM

shri

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To put some numbers into perspective, Serbs + Monte + Albania together had some 400-450k troops in 1914 and Austria had about the same. (Considering only 5th Army). i.e. Historically. [The Austrian 5th and 6th armies in the Balkans together had troops equivalent to 1 army]. Of course these are raw numbers and the sword tip (the numbers you get in game) is usually about 30% (assuming teeth to tail ratio of 1:2+). Clerks, typists, messengers, administrators, cooks, cleaners, workers, nurses, baggage trains/logistics etc. is all abstracted.
So, 150k means roughly 4/5 corps, this is close to what you start as Austria, you get 2 additional corps due to 2nd army + its HQ and then rail in 2 detachments or something, thus making it about a million troops (slightly lesser) in the area of your own, add Germans and it balloons.

If you send 2nd Army into Serbia that doubles, add Germans and it is like throwing over 1.2 million men. That makes it a 2:1 or even 3:1 superiority and thus the fall of Serbia or Monte shouldn't be surprising.

Only issue is Albania should mobilise faster, Greece should provide some allied supply and either the French or the BEF should be positioned into Balkans if you want to save them. Maybe even pull troops from that detachment in Cyprus or even Egypt etc.

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 12:21:41 AM

Bavre

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So now that we've had the appetizer, it's time for the main dish.

Ze Kaiser proudly presents:

How to weaponize the Montenegro gambit for the main theater of your choice.

(Imho doesn't really matter if east or Schlieffen. Maybe we could get Dazo to try a M-gambit Schlieffen hybrid as
addon in his thread, the results would probably be absolutely hillarious)

Anyway I digress, so here we go:

The key effect is the powerfull but temporary unit buff all units of one side get, every time a country of the
other side kicks the bucket. Note that this effect is something different than the usual NM effects, in fact those
two appear to be fully cumulative. Btw are those unit effects different, depending on the country that surrenders?
If so someone probably typed in a 0 to much for Montenegro, because the effect that tiny country causes is ridiculously
over the top. To reap it

1. Go all in on the Ententes "little ones", M-gambit currently seemes the best way to do so

2. Have your other lads stand ready to pounce on some juicy (and heavily defended) target as soon as the first
surrender effect kicks in

3. WAAAAAAAAAGH!

The second time around (here the end of Serbia) you can hit even harder. If you are very fast, the effect from
Montenegro might not even be fully gone by the time the Serbian one kicks in. You now have

- the unit effect from Serbias end
- the considerable NM effects from Serbias end
- the NM effects from everything you achieved with the boost from Montenegro
- a solid XP advantage in your HQs aquired during the first round

Your Austrians should now basically be Germans and your Germans ... well just ask Gefreiter Fritz:

FOR THE KAISER!

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< Message edited by Bavre -- 2/25/2021 12:23:46 AM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 12:26:32 AM

Bavre

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If you want you can do it a third time, just do a blitzgreek:

It should be trivial to siege Athens to 0. Best time Greeces end in a way that it coincides with your big all out
1915 spring offensive.
Btw, if Bill or Hubert are reading this: is the "unit boost from country surrender" cumulative with itself?
If so, why not one hit Albania the same round you kill Greece? I mean ain't no kill like overkill, right?
Now you should have

Troop powerlevel: Chuck Norris

next attack target: everything that still somehow stands, but I would recommend roundhouse kicking Verdun

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< Message edited by Bavre -- 2/25/2021 12:27:47 AM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 12:31:45 AM

Bavre

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Now we come to the practical part, Montenegro gambit turn 3. Montenegro is dead and our units are doped, time to cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war.
Stupid me unfortunatelly messed up the attack on Vilnius with a missclick, but note Brest-Litowsk. (Also unfortunatelly I forgot to take "before" screens, so here's the decription)
I had 5 units to take down a str 10 corps in a fortress: 3 corps, str 10,8,7 and 2 Cav str 10 and 8. Str 10 inf and str 8 cav had adjacency bonus. I did not even need the str 10 cav, so I used its attack to kill the recon bomber
behind the fortress. Did at the time not really pay attention to the number of strength points I lost, but it was ridiculously few.

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< Message edited by Bavre -- 2/25/2021 12:42:42 AM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 12:33:52 AM

Bavre

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Meanwhile a bit further south:
Here I had a mixed AH-German force, the latter commanded by Hindenburg. I attacked full strenght entrenched russian corps of a (staggered!) defense, presumably commanded by Brussilow. On the other hand, since I came, saw, and didn't
trust my own eyes when I noticed the combat predictions, it was probably Ruzky. Gotta ask OldCrow. In any case the result speaks for itself, iirc I did 20+ points of damage for almost no losses in this thrust on a front 2 hexes wide (one forest, one clear) and cut the southern railway line by capturing the town. I even demolished a unit next to my path, because I simply had some superpowered attacks left.
All of Poland is now encirceled, with no native supply above 5. And since I not just interrupted both railway lines but captured the towns, even a successful counterattack against
my steroid filled boys will not immediatly restore the supply, because the towns would need to regenerate first.

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< Message edited by Bavre -- 2/25/2021 12:43:53 AM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 12:35:43 AM

Bavre

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Well and Serbia:
No big surprises here, the corps you can't fully see has 2 or 3 points left.

Oh and while I was at it I also did a successful (but small) attack in France, because why not? (Sorry no picture)

In all of this OldCrow made NO REAL MISTAKE! Under normal circumstances his defenses would have been absolutely adequat to stop each and everything of the above. Though he probably grew a bit suspicious when my unentrenched Cav wiped
the floor with 2 of his str 10 corps that attacked with adjacency bonus during his turn, he simply had no chance to predict that. I mean I expected the boost and geared my whole strategy towards it and yet I almost fell of the chair
when I saw the actual combat odds. And -I kid you not- I actually had overall slightly below average rng this round!

And one last thing:
The turn before OldCrow prepared a massive pincer move against east prussia to cut of my main thrusts supply in return. I purposefully have not made any real countermove. So lets see how my doped (but leaderless) str 8 detachments hold up.

If even that failes, I think we have definitely entered gamebreaking territory here. Remember, of 3 such boosts the CP can easily get, this was the LITTLE one! Not gonna lie, kinda feel like the Spiffing Brit now.

Credits:

APrusty, who brought me on the trail of all this by totally and effortlessly obliterating all my armies.

All my brave lads who were slaughtered before I figured it out. RIP boys.

Chernobyl for the Montenegro gambit, the perfect method to start this avalanche.

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< Message edited by Bavre -- 2/25/2021 1:28:52 AM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 2:14:06 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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"What daring! What outrageousness! What insolence! What arrogance!
I salute you, Bavre."

I fear when I pull my turn, and watch your replay...its going to seem like I misclicked into another decapitation video again....which the severing of Russian Poland from the rest of Mother Russia in game terms.

side notes before I pull my turn: I checked the AH units entrenched in front of Lemburg..they had extremely high readiness and morale...and the combat predictor was almost exactly as if I was to assault Lemburg itself with a AH corp entrenched at 3. It was showing at 1*3 for all my units that were ready to do a prepared assault. So I delayed that.

Also, I did two prepared attacks against a German cavalry unit that was not entrenched next to Brestlitovsk on the RR line leading east. Both my corps did prepared attacks under an HQ 4 and suffered a total of 4pts damage to 2 to the hun.

This looked real bad...and Russia is still deploying and operating in units from other parts.
Now from looking at Bavre's posts above...my forces are pocketed, something that I was prepared for..or so I thought. Hmmmm.....well, pocketed Russians are still dangerous, but if Serbia falls in the next few turns as it should...Russia may collapse.

Now...on to my turn.

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< Message edited by OldCrowBalthazor -- 2/25/2021 6:23:39 AM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 5:45:11 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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Entente SEPT 5 1914

Serbia is on the ropes..if Russia is lucky, they have 2 turns before the surrender and its ramifications hit especially hard...including the temporary uptick that the Central Powers will get the turn after. And then of course, the really bad and permanent hit when Serbia falls.

Atm Russia's NM score is 95%. Serbia 67%. Germany 97% and AH 96%

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by OldCrowBalthazor -- 2/25/2021 5:27:41 PM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 5:58:49 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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Knowing that Serbia is going to fall...and that AH and Germany will get the temporary increase in readiness and morale for its units after the surrender turn..plus and increase in their overall NM...with the corresponding decline
of Russia's NM the loss of Brestlitovsk, and Vilnius, the Russian High Command orders a breakout.

The supply situation was going to be poor, and a tenative attack north into East Prussia yielded poor results against a German cavalry corp. I knew it was time to break out.

At Lutsk...after a 5 corp attack on the AH corp there...the town could not be entered. So a large bulk of the Russian Army made the decision to force march into the area to open this gap next turn.

A successful attack near Vilnius managed to destroy a German corp...and the line in the north holds for now.

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< Message edited by OldCrowBalthazor -- 2/25/2021 5:18:24 PM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 6:07:42 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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Closeup of the Battle of Lutsk, Sept 5 1914.

It took 3 Inf and 2 Cav corps to destroy the AH corp in Lutsk. (I noticed that the AH forces were starting to lose their Montenegrin Surrender buff..but they are still above the norm).

Unfortunately, the Russians had nothing to occupy the town. At that moment, I decided on a general retreat from Poland. There are 3 major clusters that were ordered to move, but there will be rear guards. If we are lucky, we maybe able to turn on the dogs that are licking our heels. :))

Note: The diamond pattern denotes the Russian attacking units.

Edit: I believe its was actually 6 attacks on Lutsk...the 6th is a 7 strength Inf corp south of Rovno with out the diamond pattern.

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< Message edited by OldCrowBalthazor -- 2/25/2021 6:16:19 AM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 7:03:14 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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Close up Lithuania, SEPT 5 1914

The German Corp blasted out of smithereens was easy because I found it foundering in a swamp outside Vilnius. Now, if I can only convince Bavre to follow me into the Pripyat.

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< Message edited by OldCrowBalthazor -- 2/25/2021 5:00:11 PM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 11:47:22 AM

shri

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Few Qs-
1. Why isn't UK going into Balkans to help the Serbs?
2. If Germany pulled a switch into Lithuania + enough troops in Balkans and Galicia, can a Belgium invasion be pulled off by France? What is happening on the Western Front or on Ottoman fronts etc?
3. Why is Italy at 0? in Sept 1915?

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 11:51:39 AM

BillRunacre

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bavre

Btw, if Bill or Hubert are reading this: is the "unit boost from country surrender" cumulative with itself?

Yes, though having one surrender each turn (if possible) can also be good as it means the effect lasts for longer, though the usefulness of that depends on the tempo of your offensives of course.

_____________________________

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 12:14:02 PM

Dazo

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Nice going both of you

.

The country surrender boost reminds me of a WWII game where axis timed Pacific offensive to match Barbarossa, giving insane bonus to german units (couldn't even scratch them) because of all allied minors taken down by Japs.

Back to the topic and Shri question about Belgium:

quote:

ORIGINAL: shri
2. If Germany pulled a switch into Lithuania + enough troops in Balkans and Galicia, can a Belgium invasion be pulled off by France? What is happening on the Western Front or on Ottoman fronts etc?

You can certainly attack Belgium with France and UK and you should be able to kill it in one turn with nice NM bonuses for 2 corps and HQ.
The "hard" part is to put your units in the good starting hexes so you can reach german border while killing most belgian units. It's all about the good use of Entente cavalry.
I'd say you need at least 3-4 turns to deploy the necessary forces but weather can still be an issue.
You can also just go for a small thrust to isolate Belgium from Germany meaning you'll only target Bruxelles and finish Belgium later.

Plus, if it comes to that, Entente has the option to attack directly Holland once Belgium is out. You probabaly won't be able to kill it quickly but just the NM and MPP hit on Germany should balance the units and MPPs given by Holland.

(in reply to BillRunacre)

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 4:59:36 PM

OldCrowBalthazor

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quote:

ORIGINAL: shri

Few Qs-
1. Why isn't UK going into Balkans to help the Serbs?
2. If Germany pulled a switch into Lithuania + enough troops in Balkans and Galicia, can a Belgium invasion be pulled off by France? What is happening on the Western Front or on Ottoman fronts etc?
3. Why is Italy at 0? in Sept 1915?

1) If Montenegro is captured on turn 2...Albania event won't fire..and Albania stays neutral. Greece is also Neutral so there are no ports for Entente forces to land to get into Serbia. There are also no Entente forces in the area although I could of gotten a French corp in Cetinje on Entente turn 2 if Cetinje held.

2) Invading Belgium is a possibility but inpractible early because France is still mobilizing and the UK is still neutral. This usually needs to be planned so that the entire country including Liege goes down in one turn.
(In this test I don't want to reveal another gambit I'm planning unless this is concluded early.)

3) This is Aug to Sept 1914 so far. I see I typed 1915 in my last post...corrected

< Message edited by OldCrowBalthazor -- 2/25/2021 5:01:13 PM >

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 7:16:26 PM

Tendraline

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Congrats on mauling Russia so badly!

However, I assume that the troops on the Eastern Front were diverted from the West, giving France breathing room and giving a good chance of turning the war into a stalemate or a slow crawl on that front. Not saying you did anything wrong, just heads up on that :)

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RE: The Montenegro Gambit - 2/25/2021 9:58:06 PM

Bavre

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The new update is out. It is HUGE and contains a ton of highly anticipated changes, so OldCrow and I agreed to only do one last round here. So here is turn 4:

In the northern sector of the Russian front Kovno, Vilna and Baranovichi fell. Nothing spectacular but an excellent base for potential future operations.