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[Logged] THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers

 
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[Logged] THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 12:44:06 PM   
guanotwozero

 

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There are 6 ballistic missiles approaching Anderson AB on Guam, picked up by X-Band radar.

On Guam is a THAAD C-2 CEC battery with 36 missiles. Doctrine is set at 2 missiles per vampire, and enough shooters to fill out the salvo.

When the vampires enter the envelope the battery fires only 6 missiles - 2 each for 3 of the vampires, and the rest are ignored. At intercept, though, sometimes more than 3 are knocked out.

Why doesn't my battery fire 2 missiles per vampire for all of them? Is this a bug or have I neglected to set some option?

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< Message edited by Rory Noonan -- 4/8/2021 6:49:01 PM >
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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 1:23:37 PM   
DWReese

 

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Status: offline 		I happen to know a little about this topic. <G>

When the game starts firing these missiles, and then stops, it's usually because the missiles are no longer within the DLZ or the envelope to be able to fire.

You can test this with some scenarios and it will either 1.) work perfectly; and then you can try it on another one and 2.) it will partially work (like yours); or it can 3.) refuse to fire at all. It needs lots of in-depth testing.

In my opinion, the reason for the inconsistency is the trajectory of the missiles. It depends on the angle of descent and the rate of fire of the SAM. That determines how many missiles that the SAM can get off before the window closes.

Whether it works as it should, or whether it should be tweaked is up to the devs. Personally, I believe that a tweak (some game leeway) should be applied. It looks bad to fire two at the first missile, two at the second, two at the third, and then none at missiles four through eight. Sure, the unused missiles could be adjusted to attack other incoming missiles, but usually there isn't enough time to get your shots off before the window closes.

Take a look at your scenario and try to Manually shoot your SAMs and read what reason is given for the missiles not being fired.

Doug



< Message edited by DWReese -- 4/5/2021 1:26:11 PM >

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 1:25:16 PM   
thewood1

 

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Status: offline 		It might also be a channel limitation. The FCR has a limited number of channels. That is wild-ass guess. I have had the same thing happen on a few other SAM engagements and that ended up as the issue.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 1:43:10 PM   
guanotwozero

 

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Status: offline 		Indeed, it tells me it's unable to intercept the missile before impact.

But it says that for each one I try, yet it then goes on to launch 6 missiles to 3 of those same targets. Furthermore it doesn't seem to be based on range as there are some vampires that are closer than the ones targetted. Enclosed pic of the target spread below.

I notice also that the battery has 6 launchers (each of 6 missiles with circular arcs) yet only three of these fires missiles; if there's a brief window of opportunity for each vampire then shouldn't they all fire?



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< Message edited by guanotwozero -- 4/5/2021 1:48:10 PM >

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 1:46:37 PM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: thewood1

It might also be a channel limitation. The FCR has a limited number of channels. That is wild-ass guess. I have had the same thing happen on a few other SAM engagements and that ended up as the issue.

That's an interesting one - it's an AN-TPY 2. A quick search doesn't reveal such a limitation but I'll dig deeper.

Edit: Ah, the database entry describes having 8 comms datalink channels - in which case why only 6 launches? And it's always 6 every time I replay it. Unless it's specifically the radar only able to guide for 6 live targets.

< Message edited by guanotwozero -- 4/5/2021 1:59:47 PM >

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 2:26:38 PM   
guanotwozero

 

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Status: offline 		OK, I tried it with 1 missile per vampire, and it just fired 1 each at those same 3 vampires. So for some reason it's just not targetting those 3 others, despite them not being further away. Pic enclosed.

That indicates that it's not a comms channel limit or simultaneous track limit. Maybe there's something about their trajectory that's different, but I can't see what that would be.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 4:40:43 PM   
thewood1

 

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Status: offline 		There is also a confirmed limitation of eight channels on the FCR. But as you said there is something else happening there. I did note the the interval is 5 sec. and with the speed of the missiles, that creates another limitation. But something to keep in mind in the future is the 8 channel limitation.

I have played with eliminating individual launchers. If I eliminate the first three launchers, the last three will fire. But as long as launcher 1 exists, the last three won't fire. So to me, this has something to do with the priority launcher is always the first one on the list and it fires at maximum rate of fire. It fires 3-4 missiles in the engagement, the next one fires 1-2, and the next one only fires 1. The last three launchers never fire.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 5:42:23 PM   
DWReese

 

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quote:

But it says that for each one I try, yet it then goes on to launch 6 missiles to 3 of those same targets. Furthermore it doesn't seem to be based on range as there are some vampires that are closer than the ones targetted.


I don't believe that it is based so much on range as it is on constantly changing altitudes. That's why I saw it has something to do with trajectory. For whatever reason, the program calculates the descent of the missiles and you will get the message that it can't intercept before impact. That, as you said, is often followed by a few missiles being fired, and is later followed by another message about not being able to fire. (It's a window.)

My conclusion is the program taking snapshot assessments of the situation ever so often and determining at that particular moment in time whether it can fire or not. If it can, then it unleashes missiles based on its ROF rate. If it can't, then you have to wait until the next cycle. Since the incoming missiles are constantly changing, things are always being evaluated all of the time. (That's likely why is slows way down.) Eventually, the missiles go below the deck, and no new firings can occur.

So, as the program exists today, it seems to be a random setting, taken as a snapshot, as to what the program reads at that moment, and when it reads it, as to whether it can shoot or not. That's why it works sometimes and not others, and that's why I believe that it needs a tweak.

Doug

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/5/2021 5:53:40 PM   
thewood1

 

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Status: offline 		Its not random. There is a sequencing going on with the firing units with multiple launchers. A combination of channels, rate of fire, and some kind of prioritization in the launcher list that is at play. Its the prioritization of the launchers firing in the order they are listed in the weapons dialog taht I have the question about. Its not random because I can reproducer the exact behavior under the same circumstances.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 12:43:17 AM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese
I don't believe that it is based so much on range as it is on constantly changing altitudes. That's why I saw it has something to do with trajectory.

I agree it looks like it has something to do with trajectory, but I checked it on TacView and I couldn't see any obvious difference between the ones being targetted and those not. If anything, it look more like the battery is launching at those on the left of the salvo, from its POV.


quote:

ORIGINAL: thewood1
Its not random. There is a sequencing going on with the firing units with multiple launchers. A combination of channels, rate of fire, and some kind of prioritization in the launcher list that is at play. Its the prioritization of the launchers firing in the order they are listed in the weapons dialog taht I have the question about. Its not random because I can reproducer the exact behavior under the same circumstances.

Agreed, it doesn't look random. Notice how consistently it fires one ahead of the others - there's a noticeable gap. But that 'window of opportunity' does seem to be a factor, given that I've been unable to manually launch at any time e.g. there's a brief moment when automatic firing becomes possible. That generation of the brief moment seems to be the issue, and may have something to do with individual batteries being ready.


If those batteries that never fire are earmarked for the 'right' side of the vampire salvo, any bug preventing them firing would explain why only the 'left' get the missiles.

So we may have two issues - the strange windows of opportunity, and a subset of the battery being unable to fire at all.

I dug further on the radar and it seems the FCR should be able to track very many (probably classified) targets - however the comms channel number will limit the number of missiles that can be guided at any one time.


Edit: From a programming perspective it looks a little like a 'faulty iterator', where a calculated iterator (index) has to step through an array of objects, in this case representing the launchers. But if something goes wrong with that calculation it doesn't step through as intended, omitting some. That launcher prioritisation could be part of the calculation. Just a wild guess.

< Message edited by guanotwozero -- 4/6/2021 12:56:42 AM >

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 12:51:14 AM   
thewood1

 

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Status: offline 		Yes, even if it could fire all missiles at once, only 8 would be tracked. So even if everything worked as expected, you'd never have more than eight missiles in the air. This is in real life, there would be multiple radars sited in defensive areas.

As some people don't seem to understand, there are real nuances to using ABM defences. There is no 1:1 solution. Its a multivariate problem that has an answer in multi-layered defences to account for numerous possibilities. There's a reason in real life why there are a lot of failures in ABM tests. There's a reason the DoD has sunk billions into ABM with only limited success. Its also why China has sunk billions into missiles that force the US to sink billions into a counter. Its all very hard to accomplish. I think the main issue against ABM defenses in CMO is the DF-21/26 missiles are most likely not as accurate or un-interceptable in real life.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 1:08:18 AM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: thewood1

Yes, even if it could fire all missiles at once, only 8 would be tracked. So even if everything worked as expected, you'd never have more than eight missiles in the air. This is in real life, there would be multiple radars sited in defensive areas.

As some people don't seem to understand, there are real nuances to using ABM defences. There is no 1:1 solution. Its a multivariate problem that has an answer in multi-layered defences to account for numerous possibilities. There's a reason in real life why there are a lot of failures in ABM tests. There's a reason the DoD has sunk billions into ABM with only limited success. Its also why China has sunk billions into missiles that force the US to sink billions into a counter. Its all very hard to accomplish. I think the main issue against ABM defenses in CMO is the DF-21/26 missiles are most likely not as accurate or un-interceptable in real life.

One of the issues about the accuracy of ballistic missiles is that they should be able steer themselves to target, which means using aerodynamic manoeuvering when back in the atmosphere. As they're at great speed only a little bit of such manoeuvering is required. I gather that's part of the problem with intercepting missiles, that it takes them some time to get up to an appreciable airspeed whereby their fins can match any manoeuvres of their targets. Hence a window of opportunity.

That window, though, should still be a period of time in the outer envelope, not just infinitesimal moments at different distances like appears to be happening here.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 1:16:56 AM   
thewood1

 

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Status: offline 		Actually, even without maneuvering, they are very hard to hit with another missile. There's a reason real ABM defenses with conventional warheads is a fairly recent development. Thats in real life I have no idea is the game represents anything close to reality.

But in test scenarios, I have pretty good success at any ballistic missile attack on what I would consider a close to real life scenario. That's a limited number of missiles, a theater area, basic intel on target(s) orientation and country), and a relatively free hand to place THAAD and BMD ships. It helps to have a long range radar or satellite to detect launches, but you can get by with more risk. Again, thats a limited attack. If 40 missiles are inbound, I just head for the bunker.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 1:42:44 AM   
guanotwozero

 

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Status: offline 		ABM tech is still far from mature, though it'll probably get there someday like most techs. The faster the speed in a turbulent atmosphere, the harder it is to pass through a precise location at an exact time. Basically it requires a lot of processing as well as accurate telemetry, and its only in recent times we've been able to approach solutions as computer & radar tech has advanced.

Indeed the 8-channel comms seems a pointlessly low limit in terms of antenna capacity - why not just add more antennae? My guess is the actual bottleneck is the computing power required to calculate frequently-updated intercept trajectories for more than eight missiles at a time. Which also reveals what the solution would be. The FCR itself should be able to track many, as modern phased array systems make that relatively easy.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 4:34:52 AM   
Rain08

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: guanotwozero

OK, I tried it with 1 missile per vampire, and it just fired 1 each at those same 3 vampires. So for some reason it's just not targetting those 3 others, despite them not being further away. Pic enclosed.

That indicates that it's not a comms channel limit or simultaneous track limit. Maybe there's something about their trajectory that's different, but I can't see what that would be.




What is the message for the unallocated vampires when trying to manually fire the THAAD?

< Message edited by Rain08 -- 4/6/2021 4:35:45 AM >

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 8:07:46 AM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rain08
What is the message for the unallocated vampires when trying to manually fire the THAAD?

It says "Unable to intercept ballistic target before it impacts", including on the ones it automatically intercepts shortly afterwards. Pic included.

Attachment (1)

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 10:01:09 AM   
Rain08

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: guanotwozero


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rain08
What is the message for the unallocated vampires when trying to manually fire the THAAD?

It says "Unable to intercept ballistic target before it impacts", including on the ones it automatically intercepts shortly afterwards. Pic included.


I'll take a guess and say it's similar to this:
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4980837

In short, there's something funky going on with the firing solution calculation.

Here's the tl;dr version:





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< Message edited by Rain08 -- 4/6/2021 10:02:23 AM >

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 12:31:02 PM   
DWReese

 

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Status: offline 		Take a look at the excellent chart that Rain08 provided.

The program concerning ABM action may be designed (or expected) to be 'systematic', and for the most part it is, but there are many things things for which there is no real explanation. Hence, my use of the word "random."

'Systematic' would imply that everything works, all of the time, as it is designed. That is not the case for ABM action. When you expect things to do one thing, and then it does something completely different (such as "not being able to shoot before impact" and then firing a few missiles a few seconds later, is 'sporadic' at best, or "random" at worst. Either way, it's far from being systematic.

Not being able to accurately predict when something that is supposed to be 'systematic' but isn't, is the definition of being "random."

I don't believe that the program is completely broken. In my opinion, it simply needs to be tweaked.

Doug

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 12:39:26 PM   
DWReese

 

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Status: offline 		Rain08,

Thanks for sharing your comprehensive chart. I printed it out for future reference.

I prepared a similar chart, although not nearly as formal, and my research mirrors yours.

The gaps in the chart, and the 'late' firings of the SM-3 (well below the deck) are unexplainable.

I suppose that we can call this "sporadically systematic", or "systematically random." <lol>

Doug

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 3:46:31 PM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rain08
I'll take a guess and say it's similar to this:
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4980837

In short, there's something funky going on with the firing solution calculation.
...


Yes, part of the problem appears to be along those lines - the firing window seems to be very funky indeed! However there seems to be something else going on too, as evidenced by the fact that three of the launchers never fire and only the left side of the salvo get targetted.

quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese
Not being able to accurately predict when something that is supposed to be 'systematic' but isn't, is the definition of being "random."

I don't believe that the program is completely broken. In my opinion, it simply needs to be tweaked.

Ah, I'll clarify - it's a bit of a geekish distinction. A random process is one that gives results that cannot be predicted at all - that's different from a predictable process that's just unknown to the observer.

In this case the results are consistent - indicating that they're not random - it's just that we players don't know the underlying process which creates them. Presumably the devs know - they wrote it!

Significantly, though, they don't seem to quite reflect the reality that's intended to be simulated, i.e. it looks like a bug or at least a wayward spec.

< Message edited by guanotwozero -- 4/6/2021 3:47:52 PM >

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 7:03:28 PM   
DWReese

 

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Status: offline 		Well, perhaps our terminology isn't on the same page, but it's quite obvious that getting a message that says that it "can't engage before impact" and then firing 15 seconds later indicates that there is something going on. It's a myriad of calculations that are obviously occurring at the same time, and they are being calculated as the incoming missile approaches a very high speed, and with constantly changing altitudes. No wonder why it's hard to nail down.

Try this, move the targets around so that the shooters aren't the same distance. You will get different trajectory paths, and completely different shooting results. There is a firing sequence that the program goes through, and if that moment happens to occur when the window is closed, then it won't fire, and you will have to wait for the next sequence. I believe that by moving the targets and firing the same missiles you will see that you will get a slightly different trajectory, and different results.

Try it, if you like. You will see that it is sort of like the luck of the draw as to whether the window is open or closed when the sequence is fired.

Doug

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/6/2021 7:34:09 PM   
thewood1

 

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Status: offline 		I don't know how it works in the game, but aspect to the trajectory have a very large impact on engagement windows for THAAD and SM-3s. It has been an ongoing issue in real life that currently is only really solved by multiple radars and firing units. Thats why there is always a ton of angst when positioning THADD units.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/7/2021 1:29:07 AM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese
Well, perhaps our terminology isn't on the same page, but it's quite obvious that getting a message that says that it "can't engage before impact" and then firing 15 seconds later indicates that there is something going on. It's a myriad of calculations that are obviously occurring at the same time, and they are being calculated as the incoming missile approaches a very high speed, and with constantly changing altitudes. No wonder why it's hard to nail down...

There is indeed something going on, and relative positions of launch & target/defence do seem to be a factor. If you look on TacView you'll see that the vampires' terminal trajectories have significantly fluctuating vertical velocity - I think that's maybe related to the 'time slice' of the whole CMO process.

I suspect there's effectively a large rounding error as the velocity is so large the background CMO process struggles to deal with each increment accurately, the way it does with all other objects as they're slower. The earlier reports of ABM slowing down the game suggest this calc process is a difficult one.

In some ways, though, an imperfect representation wouldn't matter if the 'defence process' still had the same net result as in a perfect simulation i.e. all relevant missiles were fired and the intercept probabilities reflected reality. The approximation would be good enough for the purposes of the game's outcomes. Think how aircraft taking off and landing have very unrealistic flight paths - but we don't care as it's irrelevant to the game's outcomes. The same can be true here.

But the spacing and inability of battery launchers to even fire suggests there's another factor in this other than trajectory, and maybe that's more relevant to this particular case than trajectory is. I'd cope with wonky trajectories if the overall process still worked out realistically.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/7/2021 1:39:57 AM   
thewood1

 

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Status: offline 		You also have to be careful with using Tacview as a base to collect performance data. I think the real time collection and presentation has an overall impact on how its displayed. This is especially apparent in high speed missile engagements on low end PCs.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/7/2021 2:02:37 AM   
guanotwozero

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: thewood1

You also have to be careful with using Tacview as a base to collect performance data. I think the real time collection and presentation has an overall impact on how its displayed. This is especially apparent in high speed missile engagements on low end PCs.

Undoubtedly true. Although in this case without TacView the altitude steps of the vampires (from tick to tick) still seems to vary significantly. OTOH I don't know to what extent rounding is happening as only one decimal place is output, so it's only a rough reading. I can imagine that a simple smoothing algorithm could be useful in terms of calculating the intercept window, but then again that's more CPU needed.

What might be useful is a pre-calc of the ballistic trajectory terminal phase (using a lower priority thread so it doesn't impact the rest of the game) then simply an iterative readback of the numbers when it's in that zone and intercept calculations have to be made. However that approach would be made more difficult if terminal manoeuvering is implemented.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/7/2021 3:05:11 AM   
DWReese

 

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Status: offline 		If you load the scenario up with TPY-2 radars, and the USS LORENSEN, and use the 1350-range version of the SM-3, the program can (and will) successfully track and attack the missile BEFORE they enter the terminal phase. So, I do know that this portion works, and it works well.

The terminal phase is, shall we say, a little spotty. As you said, one second it states that it is unable to fire until impact, and 10 seconds later it fires off three rounds. How it determines whether (and what) it can fire is up to the devs, and their programming. But, I do know that you can have a boatload of the shorter version of the SM-3, and your entire ship group can still be destroyed because only few SM-3s were fired in the terminal phase, as we have discussed.

Doug

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/7/2021 4:12:24 AM   
Rain08

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

Rain08,

Thanks for sharing your comprehensive chart. I printed it out for future reference.

I prepared a similar chart, although not nearly as formal, and my research mirrors yours.

The gaps in the chart, and the 'late' firings of the SM-3 (well below the deck) are unexplainable.

I suppose that we can call this "sporadically systematic", or "systematically random." <lol>

Doug



Yeah, no problem!

For the moment, I've stopped playing scenarios that feature the use of ABMs. They're just inconsistent enough that I have to micromanage doing BMD, and they're not even worth sometimes. The one time that really miffed me was when my CSG struggled intercepting two hypersonic RVs (Kinzhal), even though I have more than sufficient warning from AWACS and have good track of the Vampires. My initial intercept missed, but I understand that at first (there's always a chance of missing). What I couldn't get was doing a follow up where saying my SM-3s and SM-6s keep saying it's too late for an intercept, even though the Vampires are still 200+ nmi away from the CSG.

Hopefully, this issue gets resolved in the next update so we can get back to properly using ABMs.

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/7/2021 7:31:01 AM   
DWReese

 

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Status: offline 		If I want to play using ABMs which are intercepted in the terminal phase, then you need to use CMO version 1147.17, or before. There were significant changes made beginning with 1147.18 and those changes rendered the game incapable (as far as we are concerned) of being able to intercept terminal phase missiles as expected. With 1147.18, it also ushered in the phrase "can't intercept before impact." Playing the same scenario and do the exact same things using 1147.17 and 1147.18 will provide a stark contrast in results, as far as ABMs are concerned.

Doug

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RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/7/2021 7:32:01 AM   
Dimitris

 

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Status: offline 		This issue of inconsistent-across-range DLZ calculation results is currently being addressed.

< Message edited by Dimitris -- 4/7/2021 7:41:34 AM >

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(in reply to DWReese)
Post #: 29
RE: THAAD ABM missiles not firing in enough numbers - 4/7/2021 7:48:10 AM   
Rain08

 

Posts: 92
Joined: 7/18/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Dimitris

This issue of inconsistent-across-range DLZ calculation results is currently being addressed.


This is good to hear!



quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

If I want to play using ABMs which are intercepted in the terminal phase, then you need to use CMO version 1147.17, or before. There were significant changes made beginning with 1147.18 and those changes rendered the game incapable (as far as we are concerned) of being able to intercept terminal phase missiles as expected. With 1147.18, it also ushered in the phrase "can't intercept before impact." Playing the same scenario and do the exact same things using 1147.17 and 1147.18 will provide a stark contrast in results, as far as ABMs are concerned.

Doug


Thanks for the heads up. I might do this on scenarios on some scenarios I want to (re)play.

< Message edited by Rain08 -- 4/7/2021 7:49:32 AM >

(in reply to Dimitris)
Post #: 30
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