RE: Donbass Conflict heating up????

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 2:12:18 PM

maverick3320

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Honestly I just can't imagine a hot war in this part of the world. Any major conflict would result in Russia ultimately losing Kaliningrad permanently, and likely push several nations even further into the US/EU/NATO orbit.

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Post #: 61

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 4:23:34 PM

edsw

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

Making slow progress but I have the Russian Crimean bases finished. At this rate the war will be over before I get there!

As to the Baltic I worked weeks on Kaliningrad and have it finished. I just lost it with all of the permutations possible in the Baltic. Anybody want to us it for a scenario PM me and I'll zip it up for you. I was going to expand "Putin's War" to the Baltic but I lost it!!!!!

If it's not difficult I would like to see your scenario in the baltic

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Post #: 62

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 8:20:42 PM

edsw

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Zelensky spoke about the Situation in Donbass, We (Ukraine) are not the first to open fire, and offered to meet Putin in Donbass, this is blackmailing Ukraine.

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Post #: 63

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 8:21:40 PM

edsw

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This is all bad, I live right next to the Russian border

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Post #: 64

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 8:22:43 PM

edsw

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From: Ukraine
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It is difficult to say whether this is related to these events or not, but the Internet is working intermittently.

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Post #: 65

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 10:31:30 PM

DESRON420

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That's very bad. I hope you and yours stay safe. The situation has made me furious for years.

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Post #: 66

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/20/2021 11:24:06 PM

BeirutDude

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Its unfinished to be sure. Anybody that wants to take what I've done so far and run with it for your own scenario feel free. I haven't adjusted any of the WRA. I might come back to it someday, but I just didn't know where this one would stop!!!!!

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< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 4/20/2021 11:25:06 PM >

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Post #: 67

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/22/2021 4:52:29 PM

DESRON420

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Happily this is likely to remain theoretical as Shoigin has announced that Russian troops will return to their permanent bases starting Friday and ending May 1.

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Post #: 68

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/22/2021 5:59:26 PM

Blast33

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Hmmm move units for almost 4 weeks from all over big Russia, practice 3 days and go home..?

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Post #: 69

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/22/2021 8:16:04 PM

DESRON420

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Making the taxpayers buy a bunch of diesel for no reason is actually a great idea if you also own Rosneft

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/24/2021 6:11:13 PM

edsw

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

Its unfinished to be sure. Anybody that wants to take what I've done so far and run with it for your own scenario feel free. I haven't adjusted any of the WRA. I might come back to it someday, but I just didn't know where this one would stop!!!!!

thank you very much)))

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Post #: 71

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/24/2021 6:11:55 PM

edsw

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DESRON420

That's very bad. I hope you and yours stay safe. The situation has made me furious for years.

quote:

That's very bad. I hope you and yours stay safe. The situation has made me furious for years.

Thank you for your support

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Post #: 72

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/24/2021 9:26:11 PM

kevinkins

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I wonder if Russia achieved anything. Given their economy is less robust than Italy's, it seems to be a very expensive exercise. I suppose the West's media talking about the maneuvers meant something internally to Putin.

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Post #: 73

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/24/2021 10:45:58 PM

BeirutDude

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Maskirovka????

In any case have the Russian airfields finished (I think, there are sooooooo many!)

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< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 4/24/2021 10:47:52 PM >

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Post #: 74

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/25/2021 2:03:02 AM

Gunner98

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quote:

I wonder if Russia achieved anything.

I think yes. In addition to sending out constant and fairly decent IO messages on capability, they test their mobilization plans, and all the lower level stuff that goes one behind that.

More importantly I think they test reaction in the west with a new US administration. Probably scooped a lot of info in the cyber world.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/25/2021 2:31:36 PM

AKar

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

quote:

I wonder if Russia achieved anything.

I think yes. In addition to sending out constant and fairly decent IO messages on capability, they test their mobilization plans, and all the lower level stuff that goes one behind that.

More importantly I think they test reaction in the west with a new US administration. Probably scooped a lot of info in the cyber world.

Indeed, a good point which I completely agree with. This is about as close as one can get being "real" while still operating in peace time. Probably all this was partly motivated by poking on the opponent and monitoring the responses (or lack thereof!) - both political and military ones. I wonder if the US got a hint of all this being "just an exercise", via their diplomatic channels or otherwise, when deciding to pull back the transitioning of the destroyers to the Black Sea.

< Message edited by AKar -- 4/25/2021 2:32:32 PM >

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Post #: 76

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/25/2021 9:11:12 PM

BeirutDude

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quote:

I wonder if the US got a hint of all this being "just an exercise", via their diplomatic channels or otherwise, when deciding to pull back the transitioning of the destroyers to the Black Sea.

Or if Putin just got the gauge of the man and found him wanting. Playing chess, while we play checkers????

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/26/2021 11:56:47 AM

DESRON420

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Personally think they were planning to go for Mariupol but Putin got scared of NATO and blinked. Big clumsy L for Russia that will accelerate Ukraine's move towards the West

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/29/2021 10:21:50 PM

BeirutDude

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Well we all have opinions, but I wonder while we were all watching the build up on the Ukraine border, what did they really move/do?

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 4/30/2021 12:21:18 AM

Gunner98

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Baltic, Gasprom pipeline.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/8/2021 4:02:18 PM

BeirutDude

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Still working, have the Black Sea (Plus some Caspian Flotilla) vessels done and 1/2 the Ukraine Navy.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/8/2021 10:18:46 PM

BeirutDude

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All the forces and Ukrainian Missions are set...

Russian mission will be to destroy as much of the Ukrainian Navy and Airforce as possible within a two day period (opening battles). The Ukraine is outmatched so it will be a turkey shoot, but can you earn enough points to "win" with put loosing too many aircraft to Ukrainian SAMs. This will be a scenario where your mission is to destroy as many units as possible to gain points. So if that's not nuanced enough for your tastes this won't be a scenario for you! Just saying...

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 5/8/2021 10:19:26 PM >

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Post #: 82

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/9/2021 8:12:51 AM

edsw

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this is impressive! Will NATO's intervention in the conflict be taken into account? Although this will probably be a very big scenario

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/9/2021 1:48:00 PM

BeirutDude

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My PERSONAL estimation of the situation is...

1. NATO (or the EU) WILL NOT openly support the Ukraine militarily. Sorry open warfare with Russia, even if Russia doesn't go nuclear will result in the overrunning of the Baltics, and (at least) eastern Poland. NATO would be faced with the decision to use nukes in the Suwalki Gap and they won't risk that for The Ukraine.

2. The U.S. and (maybe) U.K. & France may support the Ukraine with limited resupply (ATGMs, MPSAMs, etc.) in the long run but not major equipment and nothing that will seriously strain relations with Russia. IMHO (and it is my opinion) the numbers of Neo-Nazis in the Donbass Militia Battalions (Azov Battalion) is a major public relations issue for Ukraine which just doesn't allow the West to do more. Russia is gaining a lot of traction in the propaganda battles and you can't deny they are there. Trying to not make this a political discussion but it is a major problem for the West supporting the Ukraine. The scenario assumes this.

What the scenario is predicated on is the Ukraine on it's own and Russia is taking the first two days to dismantle the Ukrainian Navy, Air Force and (most formable) the IADS before a ground offensive to the Dnieper (like Desert Storm).

Sorry but that is how I see it. You can say it is 1938/39 all over again, but it is 1938/39 with nukes, and that can never be forgotten.

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 5/9/2021 1:49:43 PM >

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/10/2021 7:47:15 PM

BeirutDude

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Scenario Play Test is here...

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=5016861

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/10/2021 8:37:40 PM

maverick3320

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

My PERSONAL estimation of the situation is...

1. NATO (or the EU) WILL NOT openly support the Ukraine militarily. Sorry open warfare with Russia, even if Russia doesn't go nuclear will result in the overrunning of the Baltics, and (at least) eastern Poland. NATO would be faced with the decision to use nukes in the Suwalki Gap and they won't risk that for The Ukraine.

2. The U.S. and (maybe) U.K. & France may support the Ukraine with limited resupply (ATGMs, MPSAMs, etc.) in the long run but not major equipment and nothing that will seriously strain relations with Russia. IMHO (and it is my opinion) the numbers of Neo-Nazis in the Donbass Militia Battalions (Azov Battalion) is a major public relations issue for Ukraine which just doesn't allow the West to do more. Russia is gaining a lot of traction in the propaganda battles and you can't deny they are there. Trying to not make this a political discussion but it is a major problem for the West supporting the Ukraine. The scenario assumes this.

What the scenario is predicated on is the Ukraine on it's own and Russia is taking the first two days to dismantle the Ukrainian Navy, Air Force and (most formable) the IADS before a ground offensive to the Dnieper (like Desert Storm).

Sorry but that is how I see it. You can say it is 1938/39 all over again, but it is 1938/39 with nukes, and that can never be forgotten.

If the consequences are that straightforward, I can't see Russia doing this either. Overrunning any part of Poland will likely involve the deaths of US troops. At that point, politically speaking, it won't matter if the entire Ukrainian military edifice is composed of neo-nazis - the US will be forced to respond. In nearly any scenario of open warfare Russia loses Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad has a lot of value to Russia as a thorn in NATO's side.

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RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/11/2021 4:55:08 AM

DESRON420

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

My PERSONAL estimation of the situation is...

It's just Ukraine. There is no article. Ukraine.

< Message edited by DESRON420 -- 5/11/2021 5:15:46 AM >

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Post #: 87

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/11/2021 11:18:40 AM

edsw

Posts: 59
Joined: 4/14/2016
From: Ukraine
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

My PERSONAL estimation of the situation is...

1. NATO (or the EU) WILL NOT openly support the Ukraine militarily. Sorry open warfare with Russia, even if Russia doesn't go nuclear will result in the overrunning of the Baltics, and (at least) eastern Poland. NATO would be faced with the decision to use nukes in the Suwalki Gap and they won't risk that for The Ukraine.

2. The U.S. and (maybe) U.K. & France may support the Ukraine with limited resupply (ATGMs, MPSAMs, etc.) in the long run but not major equipment and nothing that will seriously strain relations with Russia. IMHO (and it is my opinion) the numbers of Neo-Nazis in the Donbass Militia Battalions (Azov Battalion) is a major public relations issue for Ukraine which just doesn't allow the West to do more. Russia is gaining a lot of traction in the propaganda battles and you can't deny they are there. Trying to not make this a political discussion but it is a major problem for the West supporting the Ukraine. The scenario assumes this.

What the scenario is predicated on is the Ukraine on it's own and Russia is taking the first two days to dismantle the Ukrainian Navy, Air Force and (most formable) the IADS before a ground offensive to the Dnieper (like Desert Storm).

Sorry but that is how I see it. You can say it is 1938/39 all over again, but it is 1938/39 with nukes, and that can never be forgotten.

I agree with your opinion. In my opinion, the current situation is due to the fact that Ukraine has announced that it will move to NATO. Putin, once upon a time (2007, if I'm not mistaken) said that Ukraine is a red line.

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Post #: 88

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/11/2021 1:39:10 PM

BeirutDude

Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
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quote:

If the consequences are that straightforward, I can't see Russia doing this either. Overrunning any part of Poland will likely involve the deaths of US troops. At that point, politically speaking, it won't matter if the entire Ukrainian military edifice is composed of neo-nazis - the US will be forced to respond. In nearly any scenario of open warfare Russia loses Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad has a lot of value to Russia as a thorn in NATO's side.

Let's hope nobody does it!!!!!!

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Post #: 89

RE: Donbass Conflict heating up???? - 5/11/2021 1:44:11 PM

BeirutDude

Posts: 2625
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From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
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quote:

I agree with your opinion. In my opinion, the current situation is due to the fact that Ukraine has announced that it will move to NATO. Putin, once upon a time (2007, if I'm not mistaken) said that Ukraine is a red line.

That's a part of it.

I honestly can't see NATO allowing the Ukraine, or Georgia in, but then there are a few recent additions that baffle me!!!!! I'm not sure NATO is as relevant these days as we think. The recent paradrop in Estonia was cool to watch on Twitter, but realistically they are just a road bump and NATO has pretty much shot it's bolt after dropping them in a real crisis. NATO has lots of recon and EW assets, but is short on ground forces/CAS.

Then again Russia has it's problems in those areas as well...

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Post #: 90