jlbhung
Posts: 280
Joined: 3/10/2021 Status: offline
|
Turn 16 (cont) Assault on Oranienbaum Given that this was the last turn, I attacked Oranienbaum anyway despite it not isolated, and …… I succeeded, though most of the Soviets escaped. At start of the battle, there were 7200 ready Axis elements against 5375 from the Soviet. After the shooting, Axis ready elements were more than halved: 7200 -341(destroyed) -727(damaged) -3073(disrupted) = 3059 Soviet ready elements were drastically reduced: 5375 -419(destroyed) – 756(damaged) –3487(disrupted ground) -50(disrupted air) = 663 The 88% reduction in ready elements, combined with the reduction in fort levels and maybe some poor leader rolls, explained the huge reduction in the defender CV (2487 => 73). In the battle, 76 Axis bombers disrupted 50 Soviet elements. Air support played only an insignificant role here. I checked the ground combat details and found that most of the disruptions, damages and destructions caused by the Axis were from actions of rifle squads, 50mm mortars, pioneer squads and machineguns in close range combats. [When writing this AAR, I was wondering whether the success in this battle of Oranienbaum was mainly due to a very good roll of dice. I took the save file and replay the battle 20 times. Axis succeeded 9 times and failed 11 times, a success rate of 45% (of course it would be better to run 100 times or more, but I think 20 times already give a rough indication without spending too much time). While the initial defender CV value was intimidating, the result of my test suggests that city forts are really not so insurmountable even without isolation.]
Attachment (1)
< Message edited by jlbhung -- 5/2/2021 3:25:48 AM >
|