AndrewJ
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Joined: 1/5/2014
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SITUATION
All indications are that Russia is about to make a move on the Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, and possibly parts of Poland. I've been ordered to use NATO forces to contest any Russian moves, and maintain freedom of navigation in the Baltic. Faint hope!
Intel reports indicate there are probably hundreds of Russian aircraft in theatre, and multiple warships based out of Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad itself is wall-to-wall SAMs, and the longer-ranged systems (215 miles!) completely dominate the Baltic, effectively cutting off the Baltic states from the main NATO force to the west.
To face this, I have four modern warships, spread out individually along the length of the Baltic, plus a weaponless Polish frigate patrolling near Gdansk. I do have some good aircraft, including some F-22s and F-35s in Germany, some Eurofighters in Germany and England, and a scattering of F-16s elsewhere. The problem is that I hardly have enough of them; four here, four there, two elsewhere, and not even remotely numerical parity with the Russians. The Baltics themselves are nearly empty; two Eurofighters and four Mirages all alone up in Estonia, and a few Lithuanian F-16s. Almost all my forces are on the wrong side of Kaliningrad to help them out.
PLAN
I'm not sure what I can accomplish, with my forces so small compared to what is arrayed against me, but orders are needed.
Dragon and Roosevelt, my two northern ships, are ordered to steam to form up at flank speed, and then head into the Gulf of Riga together. Their objective is to give long-ranged ABM and SAM cover to Latvia and Estonia. The success of this will be very dependent on how long the Russians wait before overt hostilities begin. My ships have a long way to go before they will be close enough to help.
The Sachsen, off Kaliningrad, and the distant Willemoes, just entering the western Baltic, are also ordered to steam together at flank speed. This means the Sachsen will be headed west, away from the fight, for several hours before she can return to station. Her point defences are very good (lots of RAMs), so hopefully she can fend off any attacks before she is reinforced.
The Polish FF, which has no useful weapons, is ordered to head for the shelter of the SAM batteries near Gdynia. There's nothing useful she can do in this circumstance.
Tankers and other aircraft will be pulled back west, out of range of the Kaliningrad SAMs, except for one tanker which is ordered to head north, to loiter in the mouth of the Gulf of Bothnia, and provide refuelling for fighters operating out of Estonia. It will either refuel in Estonia, or try to sneak back south at low altitude later.
The UK-based fighters and tankers are ordered to launch now, to take up stations over Poland. They have the longest distance to fly, so they need to be underway soonest. One of my F-35s, with its excellent optical sensor suite, is ordered to head for Kaliningrad, and make a recce run along the border. Other planes are put on notice for immediate activation.
LAST MOMENTS OF PEACE
A string of ominous reports start to reach us, of 'accidents', sabotage, and cyber-attacks throughout the theatre.
Our ESM and radar recce confirms the enormous number of SAMs in Kaliningrad, with multiple SA-21 systems dominating the region. There are numerous Russian warships at sea: a pair of patrol boats menacing the Polish frigate, two more very modern patrol craft north of Kaliningrad, and a main group of five more warships operating in between them. This confirms my decision to get the Sachsen out of there. Her limited complement of anti-shipping missiles would never make it through the potent combination of land and ship-based SAMs, and staying to receive the combined attack at 9:1 odds would simply be foolish. For a while it looks like the main task group may be trying to close on the Sachsen, but as the Sachsen continues to retire they turn away and stay near Kaliningrad.
The Sachsen's not the only retirement in progress, and orders are issued to get my remaining support aircraft out of danger. Except for that one lone tanker heading north, all other support aircraft in the SAM threat area are taking off and heading west. The F-35 is reporting artillery and SRBM concentrations along the southern edge of the Kaliningrad enclave, and I'm seeing more Russian fighters in the air.
Then Intel reports that bombers are launching in the Murmansk area. That probably means cruise missiles, and they'll be in range in an hour or so. Orders are given to launch more of our ready fighters in half an hour. We'll still have a reserve of a little over 1/3 on the ground, pending developments, but the rest will be airborne. Intel is reporting yet another 'accident' in Estonia, and this time they say shots have been fired on the ground. Is there any hope of a stand-down?
WAR!
Shortly before 10:00Z, radar reports Su-30s crossing the Kaliningrad border, and heading north into Lithuania. We nervously wait a few minutes, and when it's certain that it's not a navigational error the F-16s from Siauliai move to engage. Burnering in they unleash an AMRAAM salvo, damaging one and killing three of the enemy, for the loss of one of their own. We have been ordered to contest any incursions, and we have done so, firing first. Is this enough to demonstrate our resolve?
The SAMs in Kaliningrad hold their fire, but Russian planes continue to gather. We're seeing eight more headed towards northern Estonia, two more towards the south. Bombers? No, Su-35s. Are the diplomats talking fast enough?
At 10:00Z the Russians engage throughout the theatre, with artillery fire directed at nearby radar stations and border posts, and a salvo of GLCMs and SRBMs targeting installations that are further away. Confused fighting breaks out all over the place, as fighters trade long-ranged shots, and then turn to flee before the incoming missiles arrive. Our fighters spend a lot more time running than shooting, but manage to mostly stay alive. The copious warloads on the Russian fighters (6 x AA-12!) keep forcing us back again and again, before we can get to effective range.
A salvo of anti-shipping missiles is spotted streaking towards the Polish frigate, and despite the best efforts of the pair of nearby Patriot batteries, it is struck and sunk. Two large salvoes of Onyx anti-shipping missiles also head north towards the Dragon and Roosevelt, who are entering the mouth of the Gulf of Riga, but these ships have modern effective SAMs. Barrages of ESSMs and ASTERs (with an occasional SM-2 thrown in) shoot down all the incoming missiles, and I'm very glad I've got the two ships working together. A third salvo won't be a problem, but a fourth or a fifth? That could be more of an issue. Those two are definitely not safe yet. Thankfully, nobody has taken a shot at the lone Sachsen yet, and a flight of four Su-27s that seem to be headed her way are engaged and driven off by Eurofighters.
My F-22s are doing the best of all my planes, since they are able to get cleanly into no-escape range without being fired on first. The first pair swings around the top of Kaliningrad, driving off enemy Su-27s concentrated there, and the second pair wrecks a large formation of Su-24s which was headed north for Siauliai. Getting away can be a problem, especially when all their missiles are gone, and some of them have to flee north at supercruise with more Flankers on their tail. Fortunately, that takes the enemy up towards the Roosevelt. Her orders to provide ABM support have come to nothing, since the Russians have attacked before she could get into position, but now she can use her SM-6s to pick off unwary fighters over a hundred miles away. With the pressure relieved, the F-22s can swing west again, and head back to the tanker and home.
Despite these victories in the air, Russian missiles are slamming into airbases and radar facilities across the region, and there's little I can do to stop them. My fighters are too busy in air-to-air combat to do anti-cruise missile work. Casualties and damage on the ground continue to mount. Thank God that Kaliningrad is still holding fire with its SAMs. There must be some sort of political consideration to not using them yet.
ESTONIA
Estonia's locked in a battle of its own, isolated from the rest of the NATO forces by the Kaliningrad wall, and it's here, closest to Russia, that the heaviest attacks are falling.
The pair of Eurofighters there are locked in a desperate back-and-forth battle with the Su-35s, as each side tries to outrun the other's missiles, while a pair of F-16s arrives from Lithuania, and tries to help out. They eventually manage to get kills, mostly with the long-range Meteor missiles, but the four local Mirages have no such advantage and they achieve very little at first. Finally, after extraordinary contortions, they start to get a few hits as the Su-35s and Fullbacks are whittled away or retire Winchester, and they manage to intercept a raid of Su-24s coming in across the Gulf of Finland. Infuriatingly, the Su-24s start launching their munitions just before our missiles impact, leading to the loss of yet another radar installation, but the majority of them are turned back with damage or shot down.
My Eurofighters are desperately short on gas, and I had hoped to quick-reload them on the base sooner, but incoming cruise missiles and enemy fighters have made that impossible till now. My Mirages, completely out of missiles, are landing anyway. The Eurofighters have grabbed a third of a tank of gas each from the lone tanker, and headed back into the combat with only their short-ranged heat seekers left. Why? Well, we've got 20 Fullbacks incoming from the south-east, 20 Fencers incoming from the north-east, and four Backfires and a few more Fullbacks in the center.
Can two half-gassed fighters with 8 missiles hold off the horde of fifty? Will there be anything left of the airbase where the Mirages are desperately trying to reload? Tune in next time...
SITUATION SO FAR
I've got pretty much everything in the air now. The F-22s are headed home empty, I'm down to my last few missiles in Estonia, the Mirages have just landed, and I'm soon going to have to RTB my Polish F-16s and my initial Eurofighters. My F-35s have used about half their shots. I've got four fresh F-16s and four fresh Eurofighters coming in, and that's it. After that, I'm relying on quick turnaround to bail me out. That might work in Germany / Poland, but it won't help at all in Estonia, which we all know is about to get stomped by that 50 plane attack. Maybe my Mirages can ride out the attack in their shelters? I'm still not sure if I should land the last of the Eurofighters there to attempt to reload, or flee south with them empty.
Kaliningrad is a huge problem, even if it is not currently using its SAMs. (And who's to say it won't open fire soon?) Its fighters prevent me from simply bypassing it, and it can send attack planes north with a solid shield to their south, and little chance for me to interfere. I can see another flight of Su-24s forming up to head north now, and it doesn't look like I can get to them in time. I feel like I've dropped the ball here, and I should have been aggressively working for a way around Kaliningrad sooner. I was worried about large incursions into Poland, which seems unlikely in retrospect (should have read the title! ), and held back a good number of planes. I'm going to risk a tanker to drag my last four Eurofighters up the Baltic along the Swedish coast, to hopefully give more relief to the Baltic states. They won't make it in time for Estonia, unfortunately.
I haven't done anything about the Russian navy yet, other than run away from it, but on the other hand I haven't lost any actual fighting ships yet either. I doubt I can do much to them with modest salvoes of Harpoons, given how many SA-21s there are. (Although, if Kaliningrad's holding fire... Hmmm... Maybe I do have the price of admission?) I'm starting to wonder if the proper course of action was to come south with the Roosevelt, and engage with SM-6s?
Very intense so far!
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Something a little different - a non-Fury scenario Balt... - 
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