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If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies.

 
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If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 3:33:17 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline 		If Japan could conquer India by lets say....July 1942. How bad would that be for the Allies?
Lets say it cost Japan 4 CVs to do it.

Post #: 1
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 3:47:15 PM   
YueJin

 

Posts: 243
Joined: 1/5/2015
Status: offline 		4CV's for none lost on the Allied side and India? I'd take that every day as the Allies. Four sunk Japanese carriers in 1942 means I have three years of dominance in the pacific. I can blockade every island VP probably getting Truk, Iwo, Rabaul, Lae/Jayapura, Taiwan, Manilla by the end of 1943. The side with naval superiority sweeps all the pacific based VP's with ease more than making up for the four in India. China probably falls though.

I don't see how the Bombay fight is every going to give that result though. A more likely result is the surrender of India and the Japanese winning 3-1 in carrier casualties if the Allies try to contest which seems to be the typical result when the 6 stack engages the 4+Hermes.

< Message edited by YueJin -- 5/28/2021 3:53:10 PM >

(in reply to incbob)
Post #: 2
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 3:56:14 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline 		You can figure the Allies are going to lose some CVs.

My question is, as Japan, how many CVs would you give to take over India. At what point is it not worth it for Japan anymore.

(in reply to YueJin)
Post #: 3
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 4:40:57 PM   
stjeand


Posts: 1508
Joined: 1/10/2021
From: Aurora, NC
Status: offline 		For me...if I can't take India with land and it would cost me CVs...then 0.


Japan just needs to keep the border with India locked...taking it over is okay but you are spreading too thin. To cover India you need what, 8 Divisions? Well that means 8 less in China and the ports.
And that is dangerous.

Same with Australia...in my eyes. If you can take it as Japan with minimal cost then go for it...but you do not have the ground forces to hold it and keep the US from coming behind you and taking everything.

(in reply to incbob)
Post #: 4
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 5:41:07 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: stjeand

For me...if I can't take India with land and it would cost me CVs...then 0.

Japan just needs to keep the border with India locked...taking it over is okay but you are spreading too thin. To cover India you need what, 8 Divisions? Well that means 8 less in China and the ports.
And that is dangerous.

Same with Australia...in my eyes. If you can take it as Japan with minimal cost then go for it...but you do not have the ground forces to hold it and keep the US from coming behind you and taking everything.


India starts the game with a very weak Corp and 8 divisions. (+2 Div. in Ceylon that cannot move.)

Bombay, Calcutta, Mangalore, Madras,and Rangoon have to covered. This gives India 3 divisions + a weak corp to defend.
Japan comes to Burma with 1 Army, 1 Thai Corp, and 5 divisions.

In February I can easily invade with at the very least 2 armies as long as I have landing craft. If you leave a single port open, then I don't even need LC. I can take all the ports I need in the rest of the Pacific with 150 LC easily. So to any invasion I do I can bring at least 1 army + some divisions.

If I take Bombay India is dead. If I don't take Bombay my army that is in Burma will just march through.
Where am I leaving myself open to the allies? If Bombay is heavily guarded India does not have enough units to cover here other ports and stop the Japanese Burma Army.

All I have to do is use a couple of the Armies that are sitting in the Japanese mainland at the start of the game.



The only thing I could see is that this could leave a situation where in June 42. Japan has 3-4 CVs, the allies have like 1 (based on the Allies putting all fleets into defending India). Japan holds India, it is gone, and Japan has India's production. The only thing Japan does not have enough units to cover is all the ports in the DEI. Other than that I cover the Pacific Islands and the Solomon's.

So, is it worth the Japanese losing the CVs or is better to take India?


The real problem though this is supposed to be a WW2 game and this is not WW2.






< Message edited by incbob -- 5/28/2021 5:45:31 PM >

(in reply to stjeand)
Post #: 5
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 5:51:16 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline 		India starts the game with a very weak Corp and 8 divisions. (+2 Div. in Ceylon that cannot move.)


The VPs are: Deli, Calcutta, Ledo, and Rangoon.
Calcutta is a supply source.
Bombay is not only a supply source, but if captured by the Japanese India is completely cutoff from the Allies.

What are you going to defend?

(in reply to incbob)
Post #: 6
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 6:24:32 PM   
stjeand


Posts: 1508
Joined: 1/10/2021
From: Aurora, NC
Status: offline 		Well something like this was starting to happen against me in one game...the Indian fighter actually almost sank a CV...so that went back to port.

I then brought in the American Navy and caught the Japanese off guard.

But that might just have been a little luck.

Bombay if probably the place to support at most.

By Feb I think I have 12 Divisions for India? So 6 small corps.
1 in Bombay
1 in Calcutta...
4 guarding the Japanese...at the Calcutta river line


Would be happy to test with you...I know you messed up leaving that division behind your lines or you would be farther.




You have to hold until March..then UK and US can arrive...though US takes 3 turns...and UK 2...

I have to relook...I might be off...let me test.

< Message edited by stjeand -- 5/28/2021 6:27:20 PM >

(in reply to incbob)
Post #: 7
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 6:44:04 PM   
kennonlightfoot

 

Posts: 1530
Joined: 8/15/2006
Status: offline 		If the Japanese main fleet ever catch the US CV's in the Indian Ocean it will be the end of the US fleet. Japan would prefer to take the fleet battle to the Indian Ocean since there is no support there from land based air.

US can do a little damage if they surprise the Japanese while they are supporting landings with CVL's and BB's.

(in reply to stjeand)
Post #: 8
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 7:00:23 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: stjeand

Well something like this was starting to happen against me in one game...the Indian fighter actually almost sank a CV...so that went back to port.

I then brought in the American Navy and caught the Japanese off guard.

But that might just have been a little luck.

Bombay if probably the place to support at most.

By Feb I think I have 12 Divisions for India? So 6 small corps.
1 in Bombay
1 in Calcutta...
4 guarding the Japanese...at the Calcutta river line

Would be happy to test with you...I know you messed up leaving that division behind your lines or you would be farther.

You have to hold until March..then UK and US can arrive...though US takes 3 turns...and UK 2...
I have to relook...I might be off...let me test.


Okay. So you have 8 div + the weak corp....call it 11 divisions.

I assume you evacuate Rangoon and do not try to stop the Japanese in Burma. You put one Division in Bombay, Calcutta, and 4 along the rivers to the east of Calcutta, one in Madras, and one in Mangalore to guard the ports. In fact, I figure you put 2 divisions to guard Bombay. That is 9 divisions. You have 2 left. You have no oil and 30 PP excepting what the Allies are sending you.

Japan has +4 oil, taken two VPs, and cutoff the Chinese from Allied aid.
I do agree that it is difficult for Japan to break across the the river line at Calcutta.
I invade either Mangalore or Madress with 3-5 Divisions.

I am invading turn 5 or turn 6.
The absolute quickest UK can get a single division into an Indian port is on turn 10 assuming Japan has no navy to block it.

If Japan can invade with only 3 divisions India might hold. If Japan invades with 6 divisions and I think they can, India falls.


Another point that I have to make is that discussions like this make a good game.
It makes an extremely poor WW2 Pacific Theatre game.

< Message edited by incbob -- 5/28/2021 7:03:17 PM >

(in reply to stjeand)
Post #: 9
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 7:27:11 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline 		Of course the response to this is the Allies pump all possible PP's into India. Letting Australia and New Zealand whither.
Turn 1 US and UK send all possible PP to India. India produces nothing reduces reinforcements to 0.
Turn 2 India can produce an infantry division that is deployed on turn 7 with 65 PP left.
Turn 3 India can now produce a small infantry corp that deploys turn 8.

#1 India is not reinforcing anything.
#2 Neither NZ or Australia are getting any PPs from the Allies which they have to have.
#2 Supply trucks are a no go since if they are bought on turn 2, about the earliest they do not arrive, till turn 9.

So Japan is invading on turn 5 or 6 and the earliest you can get reinforcements is turn 7 and 8.
Without reinforcmeents Calcutta 3/10 Div., Bombay 4/10, and Madras 4/10, the corps starts as 5/30.

(in reply to incbob)
Post #: 10
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 7:29:03 PM   
stjeand


Posts: 1508
Joined: 1/10/2021
From: Aurora, NC
Status: offline 		So you are taking your entire landing force and hitting India and using the Kido Butai?

Okay...the US will start taking back the east.


This game is of choices.

Japan can send everything West and take India. But they will start losing the East.


Again I am more than happy to play around with this.


(in reply to incbob)
Post #: 11
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 7:30:40 PM   
stjeand


Posts: 1508
Joined: 1/10/2021
From: Aurora, NC
Status: offline
You are correct...if the main fleet is in the Indian ocean they can not engage.


BUT if the Japanese are using CVLs they will get decimated by the US main fleet.

(in reply to kennonlightfoot)
Post #: 12
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 7:47:33 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		I think you’re quite optimistic on the timetable. I have 4 armies, 6-8 divisions, and 2-3 air after (edit: taking Bombay turn 3) and am still waiting in late fall ‘42. Weather is not your friend here, either. You’re also not taking an Indian corps in Delhi with just divisions.

< Message edited by eskuche -- 5/28/2021 7:50:32 PM >

(in reply to stjeand)
Post #: 13
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 7:50:06 PM   
eskuche

 

Posts: 1094
Joined: 3/27/2018
From: OH, USA
Status: offline 		Another part of the calculus is that once India is down you only really need to garrison Bombay, Calcutta, and the port north of Ceylon (name escapes me). Also Rangoon to be safe.

Allied ships can’t cross Singapore while it’s under hostile control. And if you really really wanted to you could count in-loop forces by the force table to see if anything is coming.

(in reply to eskuche)
Post #: 14
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 7:51:34 PM   
YueJin

 

Posts: 243
Joined: 1/5/2015
Status: offline 		Oh, for people deciding on last stand locations, consider Calcutta over Delhi. It's too exposed and lacking in natural defences. I actually think massing the Indians into five large corps and defending Calcutta to the end is sustainable until mid 1943 even if the Japanese go all in on India.

(in reply to eskuche)
Post #: 15
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 8:00:10 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline 		Yes, I am using Kido Butai.

For the comment:
quote:

Okay...the US will start taking back the east.


How will the US do anything? With what will the US do anything?

== I will have the everything in the Pacific that Japan historically had.
== The Allies are not pumping any PPs into Australia or NZ, so they cannot do anything and if the Allies aren't pumping all PPs into India then the best India can hope for is a single UK division getting into an Indian port on turn 10.
== The Allies cannot transport a single division until 9. It will take at least 1 turn to arrive anywhere.

Ekusche: I assume you are saying that Japan has the units you listed, because I do not see how you get that with the Allies.

I have no idea about weather. That is one thing I have not factored in. But given good enough weather I am invading India with 6+ divisions on turn 5 maybe 6 at the latest.


As I said, the real problem is we are talking about this in a WW2 Pacific game. This should not be the strategic discussion.




(in reply to eskuche)
Post #: 16
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 10:16:43 PM   
Numdydar

 

Posts: 3211
Joined: 2/13/2004
Status: offline 		Japan at the start of the war had exactly 13 ships total that were troop transport capable (APDs), i.e. could support invasions. I have no idea of how many LC this should represent in the game, but it is just another reason that the '41 start is so broken.

The initial invasions at Borneo, the PI, and Malaya used up all of these.

Normal cargo vessels could carry troops from port to port but should not be counted as LC.

This is yet another reason that Japan should not be able to invade the DEI on turn 1.

Palembang was invaded on Feb 13 '42 from Indochina. Why? Because the landing ships had to go back to a harbor, refit, pick up troops, and then sail off. In game terms, this should be:

Turn 1 - APDs support initial landings
Turn 2 - Mid Dec - APDs return to port
Turn 3 - Early Jan '42 - APDs refit, load troops, cannot move
Turn 4 - late Jan - sail to invasion site and invade. This is still a turn early due to the movement ranges of ships in WPP. But FAR more realistic than the way the game works now.

To invade India, Japan should HAVE to control Singapore and possibly Rangoon as well.

But since Japan can get the DEI on turn 1 it screws up everything else. Japan should not be able to do ANY invasions until turn 7-8 as the APDs would have been ear marked to the DEI, and points East of Japan. So the Allies 'should' have at least 7-8 turns to prepare for an invasion of India. But really it should not even be possible.

In the wake of the attacks [Indian Ocean], Admiral Sir Geoffrey Layton, Commander-in-Chief, Ceylon feared that the island would be the target of invasion. This proved not to be the case as the Japanese lacked the resources for a major amphibious operation against Ceylon.

(in reply to incbob)
Post #: 17
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/28/2021 10:34:26 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline 		Even IF Japan invaded India it would have forced them to divert forces from somewhere else.
In April of 42 they Army didn't want to invade Australia because it would have taken 10 divisions. That's it they didn't even feel that had 10. Invading India would have took a lot more than 10.

(in reply to Numdydar)
Post #: 18
RE: If India falls to Japan how bad is it for the Allies. - 5/29/2021 3:07:17 PM   
incbob


Posts: 727
Joined: 6/23/2004
From: Columbia, Missouri
Status: offline 		Here is a video showing the moves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUDzJjAdySY&t=7s

(in reply to incbob)
Post #: 19
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