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Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 12:28:35 AM

LoneRunner

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Joined: 8/16/2020
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In a recent MP game, France and UK intervened in the USSR/Finland Winter War (DE 204). As a result Finland moved from favoring the Axis to 26% in favor of the Allies.

When France fell, the Axis invested 500 MPPs into diplomacy chits to bring Finland back into the Axis. 500 MPPs bought 10 chits which provide a 50% chance for a swing toward the Axis. For the next 18 months, the chance for a swing varied from 40% to 50% as the Allies countered and Axis recountered with diplomacy chits.

During those 18 months the Axis got exactly 3 hits on influencing Finland. The 3 hits moved Finland a total of 17% from 26% to 9%. During that time Germany declared war on the USSR without Finland.

At the end of 18 months the USA joined the war and immediately invested in Finland diplomacy chits. Now, about six months later, Finland is getting ready to join the Allies. Yes, like rubbing salt into the wound.

I'm not a mathematician but the odds of getting only three hits on 18 tries with a 45% chance of a hit must be about 100 to 1 or worse.

I'm wondering, am I really unlucky or is Axis diplomacy on Finland broken or maybe I just don't understand diplomacy. Has anyone else run into this situation with Finland?

< Message edited by LoneRunner -- 6/8/2021 1:33:57 AM >

Post #: 1

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 1:51:32 AM

Elessar2

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The Allied chits either minimized your chances or completely overrode them. Theirs - Yours = Adjusted Chance for whoever has more. In many games the chits eventually reach an equilibrium and nothing happens diplomatically for months on end.

(in reply to LoneRunner)

Post #: 2

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 8:11:05 AM

EarlyDoors

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From: uk
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It sounds like you were slightly unlucky although as Elessar says, the chance of a diplomatic swing is your number of chits minus the opponents number of chits (not exactly sure how the USA at 7% is factored into that) so your likelihood would have been less than 40% - looks like it played out at about 3/18 or 16%

One thing I have encountered that is very annoying is when the Allies diplo Finland so that it is favourable at Barbarossa and does not join the Axis, at any time after that, Finland will join Axis if it is swung to 1% not 100% Axis

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Post #: 3

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 12:01:12 PM

petedalby

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I don't pretend to fully understand the maths but I have noticed that each time you get a diplomatic 'hit' and a swing you are given 1 or more chits back to spend. So once it starts moving in your direction it is easier to keep the momentum going.

(in reply to EarlyDoors)

Post #: 4

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 2:06:02 PM

LoneRunner

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Thank you for your replies.

Each turn I checked the Axis diplomacy influence level of Finland. If the influence dropped below 45% I invested more chits to bring the level back up to at least 45%. Diplomacy hits seemed to occur at the end of the Axis turn so I figured my adjustment of the influence level would bring my chances for a hit back to 45%. Am I wrong?

After the USA jumped into diplomacy and Finland started swinging toward the Allies, my Axis diplomacy screen continued to show that the Axis had a 45% chance of a hit on Finland. I knew that couldn't be true because Finland was swinging Allied not Axis.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding diplomacy. Perhaps the Axis view does not reflect Allied investment in diplomacy chits and when the Axis screen shows a 45% chance for a hit actually the Axis has 0% or even negative chance?

(in reply to petedalby)

Post #: 5

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 2:29:58 PM

wobbleguts

Posts: 358
Joined: 5/31/2020
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quote:

ORIGINAL: LoneRunner

Thank you for your replies.

Each turn I checked the Axis diplomacy influence level of Finland. If the influence dropped below 45% I invested more chits to bring the level back up to at least 45%. Diplomacy hits seemed to occur at the end of the Axis turn so I figured my adjustment of the influence level would bring my chances for a hit back to 45%. Am I wrong?

After the USA jumped into diplomacy and Finland started swinging toward the Allies, my Axis diplomacy screen continued to show that the Axis had a 45% chance of a hit on Finland. I knew that couldn't be true because Finland was swinging Allied not Axis.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding diplomacy. Perhaps the Axis view does not reflect Allied investment in diplomacy chits and when the Axis screen shows a 45% chance for a hit actually the Axis has 0% or even negative chance?

OK, I'm ready to be flamed here.

Why would anyone want to waste 500MP's on diplomacy with Finland? Seems a waste of MP's to me. What is the benefit?

(in reply to LoneRunner)

Post #: 6

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 2:45:19 PM

Epekepe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: petedalby

I don't pretend to fully understand the maths but I have noticed that each time you get a diplomatic 'hit' and a swing you are given 1 or more chits back to spend. So once it starts moving in your direction it is easier to keep the momentum going.

I believe you lose 1 chit when you have succes at diplo. So you have to use MPP again to keep that momentum.

(in reply to petedalby)

Post #: 7

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 2:52:39 PM

Epekepe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: LoneRunner

Maybe I'm misunderstanding diplomacy. Perhaps the Axis view does not reflect Allied investment in diplomacy chits and when the Axis screen shows a 45% chance for a hit actually the Axis has 0% or even negative chance?

I believe that's correct. You can see enemys use in diplomacy by going to reports. Of course that don't show what country is targeted, but usually it's easy to calculate real % chances.

(in reply to LoneRunner)

Post #: 8

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 3:02:05 PM

Epekepe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wobbleguts

OK, I'm ready to be flamed here.

Why would anyone want to waste 500MP's on diplomacy with Finland? Seems a waste of MP's to me. What is the benefit?

Well, if you get Finnish HQ, army, 2 corps etc. it might be well spend money.

(in reply to wobbleguts)

Post #: 9

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 3:33:44 PM

EarlyDoors

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As i understand it, the % chance of a diplomacy swing is only that shown on the screen if your opponent has not invested in diplomacy towards that country.

Otherwise the chance is your chits - their chits * % value of each chit (again not 100% sure how the USA chits are handled)

So you may well be investing 10 chits per turn into Finland and the screen will show 50% but if your opponent has invested 11 chits then the screen will still show 50% but it is only going slide away from you

How do you know how many chits your opponent is investing? You don't but you can check the reports to calculate the total then guess where they might be invested

_____________________________

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(in reply to Epekepe)

Post #: 10

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 3:54:17 PM

LoneRunner

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Epekepe

quote:

ORIGINAL: wobbleguts

OK, I'm ready to be flamed here.

Why would anyone want to waste 500MP's on diplomacy with Finland? Seems a waste of MP's to me. What is the benefit?

Well, if you get Finnish HQ, army, 2 corps etc. it might be well spend money.

Good question wobbleguts. The Axis has no MPPs to spare.

Epekepe is right. Those units are valuable. And not only would the Axis lose those units, but if the Allies continue their diplomacy, those forces will join the Allies. That's a huge swing of units.

Plus, the Axis loses the MPPs that Finland generates. I'm guessing 30 MPPs a turn.

Plus, Finland is in an extremely strategic position. And not just for attacking Leningrad. The port of Petsamo supplies the Uboat fleet attacking the Murmansk convoys. Without Petsamo, I avoid moving uboats into the Barents Sea. Also, Axis forces in Finland can threaten to cut the Murmansk rail line and perhaps capture Arkhangelsk. Both these actions are deathblows to the USSR.

(in reply to Epekepe)

Post #: 11

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 4:02:24 PM

Alcibiades73

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Epekepe

Well, if you get Finnish HQ, army, 2 corps etc. it might be well spend money.

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoneRunner

Epekepe is right. Those units are valuable. And not only would the Axis lose those units, but if the Allies continue their diplomacy, those forces will join the Allies. That's a huge swing of units.

Plus, the Axis loses the MPPs that Finland generates. I'm guessing 30 MPPs a turn.

Plus, Finland is in an extremely strategic position. And not just for attacking Leningrad. The port of Petsamo supplies the Uboat fleet attacking the Murmansk convoys. Without Petsamo, I avoid moving uboats into the Barents Sea. Also, Axis forces in Finland can threaten to cut the Murmansk rail line and perhaps capture Arkhangelsk. Both these actions are deathblows to the USSR.

The issue is not Finnish units plus Finnish MPPs or nothing. The issue is Finnish units plus Finnish MPPs OR Spanish units plus Spanish MPPs, etc. In other issues, why would you want to invest in Finland instead of other alternative nations. I don't think a case has been made here, and wobbleguts is asking a legitimate question.

I don't have a strong opinion myself, being the newbie I am. I just want to clarify the context.

(in reply to LoneRunner)

Post #: 12

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 4:02:53 PM

LoneRunner

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Joined: 8/16/2020
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quote:

ORIGINAL: EarlyDoors

As i understand it, the % chance of a diplomacy swing is only that shown on the screen if your opponent has not invested in diplomacy towards that country.

Otherwise the chance is your chits - their chits * % value of each chit (again not 100% sure how the USA chits are handled)

So you may well be investing 10 chits per turn into Finland and the screen will show 50% but if your opponent has invested 11 chits then the screen will still show 50% but it is only going slide away from you

How do you know how many chits your opponent is investing? You don't but you can check the reports to calculate the total then guess where they might be invested

I think you are right EarlyDoors.

However, it doesn't make sense to provide a percentage on the diplomacy screen that appears accurate but is almost guaranteed to be wrong. At a very least a warning should be provided that the percentage chance of a swing does not reflect your opponents investment in diplomacy.

(in reply to EarlyDoors)

Post #: 13

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 9:30:25 PM

DrZom

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quote:

ORIGINAL: EarlyDoors

you can check the reports to calculate the total then guess where they might be invested

Where in the reports does it show that a belligerent invested chits?

(in reply to EarlyDoors)

Post #: 14

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 9:32:20 PM

DrZom

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quote:

ORIGINAL: LoneRunner

However, it doesn't make sense to provide a percentage on the diplomacy screen that appears accurate but is almost guaranteed to be wrong.

OK, I am really lost now. Those percentages are not accurate?

(in reply to LoneRunner)

Post #: 15

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 11:50:26 PM

LoneRunner

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DrZom

quote:

ORIGINAL: EarlyDoors

you can check the reports to calculate the total then guess where they might be invested

Where in the reports does it show that a belligerent invested chits?

Hey DrZom,
You can find the report by clicking "Reports" at the top of the screen. Then select the "Graphs" tab. Then select "Research/Diplomacy".

The report shows the amount of MPPs spent by each country for research and diplomacy. You can review amounts by month for the entire game to date. I check the report every turn to see if my opponent is investing in diplomacy.

The problem is that you don't know which country your opponent is attempting to influence. But, usually, I can figure it out, heh.

(in reply to DrZom)

Post #: 16

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/8/2021 11:52:14 PM

pjg100

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The percentages you see on the diplo panel just reflect how many chits you have invested and where you have invested them. Since you do not (and are not supposed to) know just by looking at the diplo panel whether and where your opponent is attempting to counter your diplo, the effect of their chits is not shown. You have to try to guesstimate what they are doing based on the Research/Diplo report panel, and any diplo hits they get (which will be reported to both players).

(in reply to DrZom)

Post #: 17

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/9/2021 12:05:40 AM

DrZom

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Joined: 1/5/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: pjg100

The percentages you see on the diplo panel just reflect how many chits you have invested and where you have invested them.

Maybe we are talking about two different things. I mean the percentage on that long table on the left of the diplo screen that shows every country and where it stand on Axis v. Allies. (Hey, that sounds like a good name for a game.)

That does not show the current percentage?

(in reply to pjg100)

Post #: 18

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/9/2021 12:18:43 AM

LoneRunner

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DrZom

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoneRunner

However, it doesn't make sense to provide a percentage on the diplomacy screen that appears accurate but is almost guaranteed to be wrong.

OK, I am really lost now. Those percentages are not accurate?

The percentages that I am referring to are in the diplomacy screen. If you open the Diplomacy tab a list of countries is provided on the left side of the screen. The percentages across from each country show the mobilization of each major and how much each minor is favoring the Axis or Allies. I'm guessing those percentages are accurate.

If you select a country in the diplomacy screen, you are given the opportunity to invest in diplomacy. For example, as Axis I purchased 10 chits for 500 MPPs to influence Finland to join the Axis. The screen showed that by purchasing 10 chits I had a 50% chance of success per turn of getting an influence hit.

What I'm discovering in this forum is that the percentage may not include my opponent's purchase in chits for that same country. For example, I invested 10 chits in Finland and my opponent could have invested 8 chits. The opponent's 8 chits would offset 8 of my chits. In this situation my screen reports that I have a 50% chance of success when in reality I only have a 10% chance of success.

I don't mind the unknown factor of diplomacy. However, information provided by the game should not be misleading. If the chance of success on my screen does not include my opponent's investment in diplomacy, then the percentage chance of success is incorrect. Perhaps it should be labeled something different, like Influence Purchased.

Hopefully, Bill or Hubert can verify if the percentage chance of success is accurate or not.

< Message edited by LoneRunner -- 6/9/2021 12:20:33 AM >

(in reply to DrZom)

Post #: 19

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/9/2021 12:49:43 AM

Elessar2

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Alas, you have hit upon an long-standing issue with the interface. There is, unfortunately, "missing" information all over the place. E.g. you have to open the scenario in the editor to see what the average tech percent gain per tech chit would be-the actual game itself won't tell you.

(in reply to LoneRunner)

Post #: 20

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/9/2021 9:36:48 AM

petedalby

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quote:

Plus, Finland is in an extremely strategic position. And not just for attacking Leningrad. The port of Petsamo supplies the Uboat fleet attacking the Murmansk convoys. Without Petsamo, I avoid moving uboats into the Barents Sea. Also, Axis forces in Finland can threaten to cut the Murmansk rail line and perhaps capture Arkhangelsk. Both these actions are deathblows to the USSR.

And of course the Russians do not have to defend their northern borders quite so heavily if the threat of Finland joining the Axis is removed.

(in reply to Elessar2)

Post #: 21

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/9/2021 10:36:46 PM

DrZom

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quote:

ORIGINAL: petedalby

quote:

Plus, Finland is in an extremely strategic position. And not just for attacking Leningrad. The port of Petsamo supplies the Uboat fleet attacking the Murmansk convoys. Without Petsamo, I avoid moving uboats into the Barents Sea. Also, Axis forces in Finland can threaten to cut the Murmansk rail line and perhaps capture Arkhangelsk. Both these actions are deathblows to the USSR.

And of course the Russians do not have to defend their northern borders quite so heavily if the threat of Finland joining the Axis is removed.

Finland is not that hard to take out with forces that can man the barricades well before Germans venture that far north. Those extra MPP are nice.

(in reply to petedalby)

Post #: 22

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/10/2021 7:10:05 AM

OldCrowBalthazor

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Epekepe

quote:

ORIGINAL: wobbleguts

OK, I'm ready to be flamed here.

Why would anyone want to waste 500MP's on diplomacy with Finland? Seems a waste of MP's to me. What is the benefit?

Well, if you get Finnish HQ, army, 2 corps etc. it might be well spend money.

Its well spent money for Germany..especially if the Allies intervene in the Winter War, AND, Finland wins the Winter War, thus preserving its 1939 boundaries. The USSR is double fubared. 1st, Soviet mobilization goes down the toilet, and 2nd) The Finno-Soviet 1939 boundary abuts Leningrad, Belomorsk, and Kandalaska.

If the Allies intervene..Finland goes 15% pro-Allied. Time for Axis diplomacy if you wish. Why? Because upon Germanys declaration of war on the USSR..Finland will join as long as its pro-axis, as explained in the rules. Not 15%, not 50% nor 100%. No..all that is required is 1% pro-Axis for Finland to join. With Finland in, then Germany can decide in the future if she wants to use Soumi as a launchpad for invasion or not.

Cutting the RR line at Belmorsk is a bonus, because Murmansk is the only ice free port the USSR has in the European Theater. If the line is cut..the UK-USSR convoy goes to Archanglsk, which is bound by ice in the winter, thus again closing the convoy like clockwork, every winter. :)

Epekepe witnessed me doing this in an MP match on YT. I spent a total of about 400 MMP to do this thing, and got not only the deployed units including a valuable fighter, but in addition, bought everything else Finland could build. It was well worth the investment that gave my Axis another option.

(in reply to Epekepe)

Post #: 23

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/10/2021 10:43:11 AM

Alcibiades73

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quote:

ORIGINAL: OldCrowBalthazor

Its well spent money for Germany..especially if the Allies intervene in the Winter War, AND, Finland wins the Winter War, thus preserving its 1939 boundaries. The USSR is double fubared. 1st, Soviet mobilization goes down the toilet, and 2nd) The Finno-Soviet 1939 boundary abuts Leningrad, Belomorsk, and Kandalaska.

If the Allies intervene..Finland goes 15% pro-Allied. Time for Axis diplomacy if you wish. Why? Because upon Germanys declaration of war on the USSR..Finland will join as long as its pro-axis, as explained in the rules. Not 15%, not 50% nor 100%. No..all that is required is 1% pro-Axis for Finland to join. With Finland in, then Germany can decide in the future if she wants to use Soumi as a launchpad for invasion or not.

Cutting the RR line at Belmorsk is a bonus, because Murmansk is the only ice free port the USSR has in the European Theater. If the line is cut..the UK-USSR convoy goes to Archanglsk, which is bound by ice in the winter, thus again closing the convoy like clockwork, every winter. :)

Epekepe witnessed me doing this in an MP match on YT. I spent a total of about 400 MMP to do this thing, and got not only the deployed units including a valuable fighter, but in addition, bought everything else Finland could build. It was well worth the investment that gave my Axis another option.

But again, the operative question is not whether it is money well-spent. Rather, is it "better spent than investing in Turkey, Spain, or Italy, etc.?"

(in reply to OldCrowBalthazor)

Post #: 24

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/10/2021 12:44:37 PM

petedalby

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quote:

But again, the operative question is not whether it is money well-spent. Rather, is it "better spent than investing in Turkey, Spain, or Italy, etc.?"

IMO - yes. As OldCrowBalthazor explained - if Finland is just 1% Axis they will join in the attack on the USSR. Defeating the USSR is the key to the Axis winning the game.

Other diplomatic efforts have their pros & cons but are more easily countered before a Minor joins either side because they have to get to 100% to be effective.

The exception is Sweden because if it goes pro Allied the iron ore convoys to Germany stop depriving it of valuable MPPs.

(in reply to Alcibiades73)

Post #: 25

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/10/2021 1:18:41 PM

OldCrowBalthazor

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alcibiades73

But again, the operative question is not whether it is money well-spent. Rather, is it "better spent than investing in Turkey, Spain, or Italy, etc.?"

The operative answer is, "It depends on the circumstances and your long range strategy for that particular match or game."

(in reply to Alcibiades73)

Post #: 26

RE: Finland Diplomacy - 6/10/2021 3:33:40 PM

petedalby

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Probably also worth mentioning that the OP and most of the respondents are doing so from a MP perspective - not SP.

(in reply to OldCrowBalthazor)

Post #: 27

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Finland Diplomacy