Combat Odds Question

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Combat Odds Question - 7/2/2021 4:10:48 AM

redrum68

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Joined: 11/26/2017
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Are the combat odds that display when hovering over a potential attack just an estimate (real average value is some decimal number) or are those the exact odds with then some random factor added to them (+/-1)?

Post #: 1

RE: Combat Odds Question - 7/2/2021 4:29:16 PM

BillRunacre

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Joined: 7/22/2013
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They are correct based on what can be seen, however combat does have a +/-1 modifier added to it too.

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Post #: 2

RE: Combat Odds Question - 7/2/2021 9:03:13 PM

redrum68

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Joined: 11/26/2017
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Ok so the game actually rounds the odds to whole numbers then? An example would be if you say replace the HQ general to be a better one and an attached unit's readiness goes up but its still shows the same odds.

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Post #: 3

RE: Combat Odds Question - 7/4/2021 2:27:16 PM

katanatan

Posts: 6
Joined: 5/14/2021
Status: offline

Yes, they get rounded and have (on both sides) the +�1. (I think, would conclude)
You can notice that well in serbia, wether you attach the corps to the hq or not, same as west front. You have a (mediocre) lvl 5 gen there, you unit may forecast 3:2
Switch to the lvl 6 or 7 general it doesnt change. Use the lvl 8 general and it turns into 2:3
In my gut feeling in the example, the lvl 5,6,7 generals achieve the same results, only (in that example) lvl 8 has an effect. But it could of course be that the lvl 7 generals tips it slightly more, that he more often adds enough for a +1 damage.

But i would like some clarification aswell. Of course the combat values have long decimals with all the -30% from trenches, morale and readiness, generals.

Question 1: do these values get rounded down and up? Meaning wether you attack entrenched verdun with a strength 1 garrison or a strength 10 corps, both show that you will deal 0 damage. Is that 0 the same value, meaning the almost dead garrison and the full corps have the same chance to deal the extra +1 damage?

Question 2A: the +-1. Is it just "-1/0/+1" or all decimals in between eg +0.5/-0.777

Question 2B: If the bonus aut malus is a decimal and if there is rounding. Does the rounding happen before or after adding the bam?

< Message edited by katanatan -- 7/4/2021 2:29:37 PM >

(in reply to redrum68)

Post #: 4

RE: Combat Odds Question - 7/5/2021 4:04:33 AM

redrum68

Posts: 1202
Joined: 11/26/2017
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Yeah, those are pretty much the same questions I'm getting at. Mostly just wondering if I see a 2:3 with different units or different generals that I know are slightly better or worse do they have exactly the same odds or not.

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Post #: 5

RE: Combat Odds Question - 7/6/2021 3:04:00 PM

Hubert Cater

Posts: 5199
Joined: 7/22/2013
Status: offline

Gentlemen, I would say your best bet to better understand the effect of HQ ratings and possible combat results in general would be to look at the following sections in the Manual:

6.30.4. Unit Readiness and Its Effect on Combat (page 177 of the Manual)

and

6.30.7. Combat Losses (page 180 of the Manual)

and

6.30.8. Variability in the Combat Results (page 181 of the Manual)

What some players do after that is setup a dummy test campaign with various units, HQs, conditions such as varying terrain, entrenchment values etc., to compare possible combat results based on these formulas to better understand the differences and likely outcomes. Another option is to use a spreadsheet and plug in the formulas and then different values to see what the results might be just to get a better idea how this potentially all plays out in game.

Hope this helps,
Hubert

< Message edited by Hubert Cater -- 7/6/2021 3:05:02 PM >

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Post #: 6

RE: Combat Odds Question - 7/6/2021 3:14:50 PM

Hubert Cater

Posts: 5199
Joined: 7/22/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: katanatan

Yes, they get rounded and have (on both sides) the +�1. (I think, would conclude)
You can notice that well in serbia, wether you attach the corps to the hq or not, same as west front. You have a (mediocre) lvl 5 gen there, you unit may forecast 3:2
Switch to the lvl 6 or 7 general it doesnt change. Use the lvl 8 general and it turns into 2:3
In my gut feeling in the example, the lvl 5,6,7 generals achieve the same results, only (in that example) lvl 8 has an effect. But it could of course be that the lvl 7 generals tips it slightly more, that he more often adds enough for a +1 damage.

But i would like some clarification aswell. Of course the combat values have long decimals with all the -30% from trenches, morale and readiness, generals.

Question 1: do these values get rounded down and up? Meaning wether you attack entrenched verdun with a strength 1 garrison or a strength 10 corps, both show that you will deal 0 damage. Is that 0 the same value, meaning the almost dead garrison and the full corps have the same chance to deal the extra +1 damage?

Question 2A: the +-1. Is it just "-1/0/+1" or all decimals in between eg +0.5/-0.777

Question 2B: If the bonus aut malus is a decimal and if there is rounding. Does the rounding happen before or after adding the bam?

1) It is just rounded, up or down depending on whether or not it is >= .5

2) Just "-1/0/+1"

3) The "-1/0/+1" is applied after the combat results are determined

Hope this helps,
Hubert

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Post #: 7