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T42 - Finding Tolbukhin

 
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T42 - Finding Tolbukhin - 7/10/2021 9:43:32 AM   
loki100


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T42 – 5 April 1942

Weather is cold/snow pretty much everywhere but the forecast for next week is rain over most of the front (apart from the Black Sea region).

Running the turn end, confirmed most of this.

Must say the Rumanians really are rather useless.



One important difference is most of the malus on trucks and trains is removed. Looks like first impact is a lot of manpower arriving inthe combat formations



So cleared up the mess in the Crimea. Judging by the weather forecast this sector should avoid the first batch of the rains.



Carried on with the Orel-Kursk operation. Endless reserve reactions but I've just started to build that into my attacks. Good thing is the reserve formation often collapses along with the front line units. Soviets abandoned their old front line.

Tolbukhin has left Leningrad and has his very own Shock Army on this sector.

Not shown but a bit of probing around Stalino. Found where Chuikov has got himself to.



Not much but a hex that is better under my control than left with the Soviets.



Fairly heavy losses for both sides.



My manpower pool starting to reduce – this is good as it means I am finally pushing replacements up into the combat formations.



Tank pools showing some signs of recovery – brought the last batch of replacement battalions to the map.



VP situation. Guess my first goal is to avoid the sudden death HWM for 1 October. Beyond that, not going to win at the next test, guess I'll take Kursk, Orel and Sevastopol by mid-May – so that will be around 600.



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Post #: 181
T43 - Hungary to the rescue? - 7/13/2021 7:15:39 AM   
loki100


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T43 – 12 April 1943

Very annoying weather pattern (and I realise I have no grounds to complain), As predicted heavy rains north of Orel, snow-cold from there to Stalino and then rain/heavy mud all along the Black Sea region.

If I believe the forecast then next turn its going to be much the same with heavy rain in the north and rain along the Black Sea and clear skies in between. At least that makes the air phase easy to set up.

One good thing from last turn is it has shown where the Gds Rifle Corps are.

While it was tempting to see if I could cut them off decided to concentrate on Kursk-Orel for the moment. 2 PGA has a lot of units back on refit but 1 PGA is still fresh (and has had a lot of new tanks delivered).

Usual endless round of reserve reactions, as with last turn just built this into my planning. Helps I now have a reasonable number of 40 MP+ formations. 2 PGA managed to cut the Kursk-Orel rail and 1 PGA broke deep into the Soviet defences east of Kursk (this does all rather feel like 1943).



Given the weather, nothing happened anywhere else.

Not exactly a great loss ratio.



Nicer when viewed from the perspective of the LW.



Hungarian 2 Army is released and moving up – not exactly going to lead the offensive but will help fill in a few of the large gaps I'm leaving.

Army supply chart. Still some large gaps in what is being sent against what is needed but another 75,000 replacements rounded up from the Schnapps bars of Berlin and sent east.



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Post #: 182
T44 - Horses, horses and horse .... - 7/19/2021 8:44:39 PM   
loki100


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T44 – 19 April 1942

So apart from near Stalino its heavy mud and mostly heavy rain everywhere. There the skies are clear but still mud. Forecast for next turn is mostly clear skies but still heavy mud.

No point doing much other than small redeployments to optimise CPP gains.

Soviet garrison box, have been sending a few weaker brigades there and it has helped keep the impact of the partisans under control.



Seems the Soviets think this is sort of re-enaction of the Middle Ages. Thats one badly churned up field covered in several layers of horse s... .



So overview of the supply network, actually quite neat for unit traces apart from a few odd ones (mostly linked to a few units that are being redeployed).



Good steady flow of manpower to the front line formations.




But still too many hanging around the Berlin night spots (actually only 220k of them are German so its time to encourage my noble allies to commit to some serious losses).



Well for a turn where nothing really happened, I made a lot of changes setting up for my last chance to gain anything significant.

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Post #: 183
RE: T44 - Horses, horses and horse .... - 7/20/2021 2:40:15 AM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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I see you two are still bashing each other from the beginning of release ;-P Will see what rabbit Loki pulls out of the hat here in a few turns of how 42' may show what the year has in store. But I have my hypothesis already. Wish I had more time to play but I still just don't and first I have even been able to read and post :(

Wish both of ya good luck and keep it up!

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Post #: 184
RE: T44 - Horses, horses and horse .... - 7/20/2021 7:23:02 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

I see you two are still bashing each other from the beginning of release ;-P Will see what rabbit Loki pulls out of the hat here in a few turns of how 42' may show what the year has in store. But I have my hypothesis already. Wish I had more time to play but I still just don't and first I have even been able to read and post :(

Wish both of ya good luck and keep it up!


I'm doomed ... my decision to rely on shatters in the early phase (allied to Steven being very pocket averse) has left me facing too many formations, so no new pockets (or marginal single hex affairs), and my MP evaporates.

I'll get to the auto-loss threshold, may get somewhere near the historical HWM, but not much more than that.

My only hope is to exploit the 4 months (May-Sept) to exploit the impact of the low Soviet NM, its just possible I can seriously degrade his army enough to create some movement space - and even less possible that I can do so without wrecking mine.

Laying aside plenty of small mistakes that add up, pre-release I'd played too much vs the Axis AI>120 morale. While that gives you a good fun game, it also over-emphasises the extent that units shatter rather than just rout with heavy losses in the opening part of 1941.

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RE: T44 - Horses, horses and horse .... - 7/20/2021 2:47:45 PM   
Speedysteve

 

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Thanks HLYA!

No war or performance is ever perfect and I too feel there's much I've learnt that I would do differently in the next war.

Ironically with my Army being 'relatively large' (for the time of The War) the biggest mini-game I have on-going right now is ensuring supply of Vodka to my men and focussing the replacements where they are most needed.

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Post #: 186
T45 - reflections on a winter lost (if Proust is your t... - 7/22/2021 3:12:32 PM   
loki100


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T45 – 26 April 1942

Weather is clear skies and light mud over most of the front (still much worse around Leningrad). But there are patches of heavy mud all over the place. Next turn looks like a return to heavy rains.

Seems the Soviets are carrying on with their irrational hatred of my Italians.



Experimenting a little with AD design. That large Soviet force at Orel is very dependent on the dual track rail to the NW so ran a rail-interdiction mission. Didn't do a lot of damage but that added around 5-6,000 units of usage to each hex (the on map interdiction is a secondary bonus). Depending on their usage (& that junction is also supplying their forces south of Vyazma too) that could add a bit of an extra problem to their freight shipments (remember that interdiction 'usage' is treated differently to normal operational usage when its cleared the next logistics phase).



Anyway, spent some time thinking of options, especially with that weather forecast and ended deciding to do very little. Pulled units back to optimise CPP gain, occupied a vacated Kursk and took Kerch after the Soviets had abandoned that region. This handily released the Pzr Corps that I'd been using there so it can refit and then act as a reserve for the opening attacks.

Other than that, still managing the refit cycle as well as I can and trying to fill in some secondary parts of the rail net, especially where I plan to make my opening attacks.

So that was a short post and I think we can treat this turn as the end of winter for all intents and purposes.

So some reflections as it was my first time as the Axis.

First the key context, I really botched T11-T16 and that is going to be the most important feature going forward. Not only did I make no real gains I actually inflicted far too few losses on the Soviets as I went off an excited squirrel hunt.

Now the good thing? Well the front line was probably well laid out but only if your interest was being able to optimise supply. Only the 9A was so badly placed that it effectively dropped off the supply net.

I didn't lose much. Vyazma, which took long enough to take the sting out of any Soviet offensive towards Smolensk and Kursk, which was indefensible and I probably shouldn't have taken.

As Steven's posts make clear the weather made a mess of his plans at Leningrad, all those turns of light snow meant that a well equipped AGN never came under pressure. Now, personally I'm not sure the Soviets can do much on this sector but in effect the current front is exactly as it was at the start of December.



Unfortunately due to some pretty unnecessary comments in the game he took over from Robert, we won't get his views on what happened so you'll only get my perspective.

So, logistics. I've kept a running commentary here so I'll pull it together. First you are going to take a lot of losses in December-January and I don't think there is much you can do about it. Gaining level 2 forts out of the front lines is not easy as fortified units can be hard to reinforce to the point where they actually function.

I basically created 3 supply bastions, one never moved (Pskov), the other two rotated around Smolensk and Kharkov respectively. Every now and then I dismantled these two to improve my secondary network. The remaining FBD worked behind AGC and AGS to give me secondary lines.

One experiment was to set border depots to high priority one turn and then low the next. The theory is these should grab some freight that can't make it to the front depots and then that has a shorter journey (ie can cope with more congested rail lines) the next turn. I'm not sure this really worked not least as depots will only take freight if they perceive a local demand (so priority is not the only condition). I found Warsaw worked consistently but that hosts OKH (with a lot of SU), elsewhere this seemed to be rather hit and miss.

Second big bit is managing the army. You won't be able to push many replacements to the front and actually you don't want to (they will just get frostbite etc) until late February. But you need to manage your formations so none slip to unready and ideally none go below 30% TOE. I think you have to set a 'budget' of 'x' divisions per turn out of the line to recover, as the fresh units arrive from the West that gives you some leeway. But this is not easy to do, deep snow and often poor terrain really slows your movement so the journey to a decent depot takes around 3 turns. I don't think there is any magic solution here, just grinding your way through the CR and taking notes as to which units you need to move (it really helps to have an opponent like Steven who doesn't think taking a week over each turn is a good idea).

So here is my list of my worst German infantry divisions for their current TOE:



On balance, reasonably happy with how I've managed that aspect.

As to the Panzers, the killer is not outright losses but damaged tanks. So pull all your armoured SU out very early and dump in either the reserve or OKH. Just do without them as all that will happen is they will be lost. Harder with the Pzrs but ideally you don't want to fight with them and you never want to be retreated. But of course you need them … sigh.

The Pzr replacement battalions are so valuable here. Fit out in the reserve, send to OKH and they can be in the Pzr division next turn. Just try to hold back if you can, again at least into February or those nice new tanks just become damaged. In the end I've had to pull 2 Pzr divisions off map to refit, the rest I've managed on map (in the short term this is compensated by the two Pzr divisions released from the West).

So a few tables.

Loss tables over the winter. So here we've both suffered. I've just over doubled my totals but the re-assuring one is the captured line. Nothing lost, or shattered and most routs were Italian or Rumanian formations. The Soviets have lost 1.6m men (900k permanent) and 20,000 guns (and from experience that hurts).



Some idea of my actual tank losses. In a way the bits that really matter are Pzr III and IV and there I lost 640 (960 to 1600) – my view is trashing a few French tanks and even the Czech ones doesn't matter too much.



And the OOB. Which is less good, the Soviets have gained 1.6m men and 16,000 guns (I'm not too worried about planes or tanks). That is a lot of formations, lets say the equivalent of 160 rifle divisions, so its clear that any attack is going to run into multiple lines and lots of fortifications. Hence the minimal goals below.



This has come up in a discussion in M60's AAR so I'll say something here. Clinging to the poor terrain to the east of Bryansk is an important sub-goal for the axis player. By the time you can return to some sort of offensive operations, it is a hugely vital shield, if you are dug in, it can be safely held by a line of infantry divisions.

To me, its a vital pivot for any 1942 offensive into the more open terrain. If the Soviets hold that belt, you have to commit a large mobile reserve to the Smolensk sector given the threat of an advance. Basically in 1942, well dug in German units in poor terrain demand a lot of Soviet effort to shift. By 1944, they have the capacity to bust open any defensive line.



(the image is from T49 – but makes the point of how I am using that sector).

So what now. Well I'm not sharing the plans … clearly I've decided to clear out the Crimea. That will free up 11A and a Pzr Corps. The Hungarians and Italians are handy for filling in gaps.

My basic goal is to have the historical HWM score by the end of 1942. Any more is nice. In effect I am playing for the December 1944 victory test.

One thing, first goal is destroyed units, VP come second. If I shed the +6 for removing even a few divisions I'll take the trade off.

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Post #: 187
T46 - lets do summer ... - 7/24/2021 12:30:17 PM   
loki100


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T46 – 3 May 1942

So, its spring time, so much to look forward to ... more Soviet troops.



Loads more of them coming to the map, and I start losing a few formations to disbands, or to refit to PzrGr style formations.



And really nice weather. Should improve just to light rain in the north next week.

The detailed reality is that leaves sectors with clear ground or light mud but the worst is concentrated around Orel.



So a few small attacks on the Stalino-Kharkov sector and start to dismantle the Sevastopol positions. Pulled the bulk of the mobile formations out to rest but kept some for the possibility of a reserve reaction.



Supply charts. Still some gaps but nothing too worrying. Good to see a solid flow of replacements as I complete the post-winter refit cycle. Have no German divisions under 50% TOE.

One of the Pzr divisions I returned to the reserve has almost fully refitted in a turn as a result. Definitely worth it in particular circumstances.



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Post #: 188
T47 - advertising for vehicle mechanics - 7/26/2021 7:23:27 PM   
loki100


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T47 – 10 May 1942

So ... a huge increase in Soviet numbers and my trucks are not really being repaired.



Weather splits in two. Roughly north of Smolensk remains rain/light mud, but its clear to the south. Looks like next week will be exactly the same.

Soviets were back to being aggressive and very nosey.



That recon was spread all along the AGC/S front. Managed to really catch one of their naval air missions – it will be some time before they can replace those specialist naval air planes.



Tried rail bombing again around Yelets (so rail junction both for Orel and the south) but not sure why I picked up so much flak damage – mission was at 15,000' and there are no units actually in the target zone.



Start the process of taking Sevastopol, if I can manage this from the current 2 hex frontage the secondary advantage is a pocket of those units to the south of the city.

2 of the infantry divisions in the opening assault are in a complete mess as a result.



Putting this together was a real pain of organising. On that sector is a mix of heavy mud, light mud and clear ground conditions. Of course the heavy mud was where I really wanted to go.

Anyway, that is the equivalent of 2 armies routed and a Gds corps in a pocket. No doubt it will be broken but I doubt it will escape as it got involved in some reserve reactions so must be low on MP.

Almost every attack involved a number of reserve reactions and quite a few holds.



Not a great loss ratio (obviously losing 9,000 men at Sevastopol doesn't help), but don't think I have much choice. The hope is this operation creates the space for a running battle back to Voronezh.



Luftwaffe was heavily committed, again think its best used in this sort of situation as saved for 'later'.

While that explains why I am hitting endless lines of Soviet formations, have a small suspicion that they may also find it hard to supply so many at this stage. You can use up the notional truck surplus of 1941 very easily and lend-lease really doesn't help that much at this stage.



No action south of Kharkov, content for 17A to hold the line here for the moment. Also have a near complete Pzr Army in reserve.

Less sure that my idea of rotating a few Pzr divisions via the reserve worked out. Ok it has a lot of tanks, but no trucks, can only hope it finds a few spare ones in Berlin.



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T48 - blowing up some T34s - 7/28/2021 7:37:41 AM   
loki100


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T48 – 17 May 1942

Start with some bad news ... does look like the Soviets are generating new formations faster than I can inflict any losses.



Weather is clear south of Smolensk, rain above that line, next turn looks like rain all over the front.

Much to my surprise my pocket held (the 203 Pzr Regiment is using French S-35s and Char-Bs).

Rather glad I left GS on.





In outcome that was a bit of a massacre of the VVS.



Gave up on my previous GA missions and redeployed all the relevant bombers to the Black Sea, want to try and isolate Sevastopol if I can.

Since I had to rest some formations and others had low mileage its not quite as good as I'd hoped but that helps (and with very low losses).

Its not isolated but will raise the cost of resupply.



The Soviet counter-stroke had left a lot of their Tank Corps in the front line, given the likely weather next turn, decided to try and trash them if I could. Will then let most of the mobile formations rest next turn.

If I have a strategy, its time. Crudely I have a huge NM advantage from now to September. While the Soviets can (and will) both pull back here and there and can enmesh me in multiple lines, I can push them back and generate a stack of routed formations.

I'm already mostly hitting level 1 fortifications. So my view is I might as well keep my army as intact as possible and use that goal to set the operating tempo.

Less useful, some probing attacks in the Kharkov-Stalino sector.

Let 11A rest from last turn, a few of the divisions were in a real mess but I think I can recover faster than the Soviet defenders. Pulled a few fresh divisions from my limited reserve to help keep the pressure going here.



Losses for once in my favour – helped by the destruction of a Gds Rifle Corps.



I guess I should take some optimism from the small Soviet reserve.



Their manpower pool indicates they really need their one off allocations. 193K of mine are Gernan



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Post #: 190
RE: T48 - blowing up some T34s - 7/28/2021 4:50:56 PM   
Rosencrantus

 

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Are you going to consider limiting the TOE on your units that are just in static positions in the North? Setting practically almost the entire AGN to a lower TOE aside from some key divisions can really spare some manpower for your 42 offensive.

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RE: T48 - blowing up some T34s - 7/28/2021 5:28:13 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Rosencrantus

Are you going to consider limiting the TOE on your units that are just in static positions in the North? Setting practically almost the entire AGN to a lower TOE aside from some key divisions can really spare some manpower for your 42 offensive.


manpower isn't really my problem, its tanks. Most of AGN is in the front lines with a couple of small reserve clusters behind the lines so they are not drawing on my manpower reserve and I think it would take some time for a TOE adjustment to leach out much manpower.

other bit is I've played Stal-Berlin as the axis and am very painfully aware that low TOE infantry formations rapidly become worse than useless by mid-43. So I'd rather keep them as high as I can - the LW formations are different, they can't be trusted in the front lines so are far better set back creating defensie lines. In that case, they will go to a lower TOE simply as its a poor use of the available assets to have them much over 60%.

The wider issue is that both sides have too much manpower. Now its a tricky issue as basically AI-AI testing tends to come out pretty well at key dates but player's (both) use their agency to limit losses, this means less draw down to simply replace regular losses and neither side end up with the endemic problem of low manpower formations. No easy solution, in effect mutual ahistoric game play (that is perfectly within the game engine) tends to generate lower losses.

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heading for the end game - 7/30/2021 9:43:39 AM   
loki100


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been thinking about this and am going to stop this in any level of detail here. Not at all sure this has any value (but is time consuming) and we've reached a point (T52 really) where it can only end in one way.

Will play out to that point as it could be interesting to test the actual mechanisms.

But in effect this is what I started to put together for a T52 report but think it stands alone pretty well as a summary of where the game is.

To put things in context, that is the state of my on map Pzr and tank formations (incl Rumanian and Hungarian units). 11A was really hit in the Sevastopol battles so won't be available for at least another 3 turns.



Tank pools (German only), including stuff out of production. There is no practical way to recover my losses or those under-strength divisions.



Current VP chart, so I pass the October HWM loss. I can't see how I'm going to take more than 2 more of that list (& maybe not even that), so lets say I get a HWM of 610.



So for the Soviets to regain the initiative they need to knock 61 off this. They are well placed for time bonus so each lost city will be 16 not 10. Given where the front is, Stalino, Orel (I am assuming I will take that), Kharkov and Kursk are all easy losses (the +6 for Kursk is already claimed). That is then 58, a few for theatre boxes and we are looking at an initiative change in say October/November.



Given what I've not taken, the time bonuses are then allocated. This is going to be around +42 (locations never taken that were taken).

The Soviets then get the VP for the cities they hold at that stage. That is going to be well over 400 (in my Soviet AAR I had 340 on initiative change and the only ahistoric hold was Stalingrad).

So, a loss in early 1943?

Should note not blaming the game system. I made enough mistakes in the second half of the summer of 1941 to have set this up. The reality is I have turned 1942 into 1943, in reality I should go over to the strategic defensive now and try to maximise my options in that phase rather than lose more making increasingly limited gains.

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RE: heading for the end game - 7/30/2021 12:17:17 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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Do you already have stuff written for turns 49-51? I thought things seemed fairly positive in your T48 report and the plan seemed sound. Has something changed in the last couple of turns?

What kind of shape are your Motorised divisions in?

FWIW I think that at this stage not long after release getting an insight into how a much more experienced player is thinking and approaching things always has value. So even if you posting every 5 turns this would still be of interest to me at least.

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RE: heading for the end game - 7/30/2021 12:47:11 PM   
jubjub

 

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I think an offensive is a still a good idea. You are only one point away from your HWM, and it seems like you could go for a limited offensive to take rostov, orel, tula, and voronezh. There's potentially 50 points there, and they're not that far with only good terrain in between. Rostov in particular is a major supply hub in the south, and taking it will hurt future Soviet offensives.


Not only that, but you can focus on destroying his army as much as you can while you still have a NM advantage.

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RE: heading for the end game - 7/31/2021 8:42:01 AM   
Speedysteve

 

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I've not been posting much on here recently due to some 'forum activity' but to add my 2p to the current situation:

I do totally agree with Loki's view that it was those crucial late Summer-early Autumn 1941 turns that have strategically influenced where we are now.

Naturally there's lots of other 'minor' actions that all add upto when each of our games are. Others that spring to mind are the Axis cross-country chase NE of VL. That led to a Pz Gp being out of more valuable action elsewhere for weeks. Another is I feel I balanced my defence very well in 1941. Preventing any large encirclements, placing units in vital defensive hexes, enough blockers to sap Axis MP etc etc.

I can, obviously, express the situation better from the Soviet side since I'm playing them Some random thoughts:

Winter Offensive - My winter offensive was hardly stellar, partly due to weather going against me and partly due to it being the first run through of winter I'd played in WITE2 (hence I learnt much). I gained the most in the Vyazma sector which will be useful come 1943 onwards.....

Logistics/Unit creation - In addition to placing my units well I've streamlined the logistics side of things over the last 2 months (thanks to Loki for some tips here) which has improved the overall 'health' of my units overtime. I've also not over stretched on unit building. It's so tempting to 'go crazy' when you see Cavalry, Tank and Rifle Corps being able to be built. Let alone the 100's of new SU's you can build. Truck use is still fragile and it's easy to 'break' the current status quo you have in terms of supply, trucks, men, artillery etc etc. As such I've gradually built them overtime for use in the crucial active sector.

VVS - Rightly or wrongly but I'm pushing and using them hard in each of my turns now. 1942 is the crucial year and even though I will lose 1000's of them like flies if they can attrite the enemy that extra bit, turn the odd battle in my favour I think it's worth it.

Target selection - since the start of the game I've tried to focus on taking out the Panzers. At the time it was just a random theory as it seemed logical they would be the most exposed units. From looking at Loki's post above it seems to have had a material affect on degrading the Axis AFV pools noticeably.

Unit density - Due to all of the mentioned factors the Soviets are clearly in a strong position right now. I've a large army on the field, units in depth combined with the emergence of Corps. I still feel Loki has a chance as the Soviets (on an individual basis) are generally still weak with low NM BUT I feel the next 2 months are crucial. IF Loki can somehow breakthrough enough and capture enough of my forces (i.e a stunning Bialystock/Kiev type encirclement) then it will make the game interesting. I do agree with Loki's assessment, though, that this is a slim chance due to my strength on the field.

Last musing - We've both done some things good in game and both made mistakes. What's clear is the Soviet's can afford to make more mistakes (as long as it's not 10's of massive ones) than the Axis one's and still come out in front. I know we know this but this game emphasises that. The 'swingometer' affect of the first 4 months of the War is the biggest single element in the game and deciding it's outcome, clearly.


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Post #: 196
RE: heading for the end game - 7/31/2021 8:48:45 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedysteve

I've not been posting much on here recently due to some 'forum activity' but to add my 2p to the current situation:

I do totally agree with Loki's view that it was those crucial late Summer-early Autumn 1941 turns that have strategically influenced where we are now.

Naturally there's lots of other 'minor' actions that all add upto when each of our games are. Others that spring to mind are the Axis cross-country chase NE of VL. That led to a Pz Gp being out of more valuable action elsewhere for weeks. Another is I feel I balanced my defence very well in 1941. Preventing any large encirclements, placing units in vital defensive hexes, enough blockers to sap Axis MP etc etc.

I can, obviously, express the situation better from the Soviet side since I'm playing them Some random thoughts:

Winter Offensive - My winter offensive was hardly stellar, partly due to weather going against me and partly due to it being the first run through of winter I'd played in WITE2 (hence I learnt much). I gained the most in the Vyazma sector which will be useful come 1943 onwards.....

Logistics/Unit creation - In addition to placing my units well I've streamlined the logistics side of things over the last 2 months (thanks to Loki for some tips here) which has improved the overall 'health' of my units overtime. I've also not over stretched on unit building. It's so tempting to 'go crazy' when you see Cavalry, Tank and Rifle Corps being able to be built. Let alone the 100's of new SU's you can build. Truck use is still fragile and it's easy to 'break' the current status quo you have in terms of supply, trucks, men, artillery etc etc. As such I've gradually built them overtime for use in the crucial active sector.

VVS - Rightly or wrongly but I'm pushing and using them hard in each of my turns now. 1942 is the crucial year and even though I will lose 1000's of them like flies if they can attrite the enemy that extra bit, turn the odd battle in my favour I think it's worth it.

Target selection - since the start of the game I've tried to focus on taking out the Panzers. At the time it was just a random theory as it seemed logical they would be the most exposed units. From looking at Loki's post above it seems to have had a material affect on degrading the Axis AFV pools noticeably.

Unit density - Due to all of the mentioned factors the Soviets are clearly in a strong position right now. I've a large army on the field, units in depth combined with the emergence of Corps. I still feel Loki has a chance as the Soviets (on an individual basis) are generally still weak with low NM BUT I feel the next 2 months are crucial. IF Loki can somehow breakthrough enough and capture enough of my forces (i.e a stunning Bialystock/Kiev type encirclement) then it will make the game interesting. I do agree with Loki's assessment, though, that this is a slim chance due to my strength on the field.

Last musing - We've both done some things good in game and both made mistakes. What's clear is the Soviet's can afford to make more mistakes (as long as it's not 10's of massive ones) than the Axis one's and still come out in front. I know we know this but this game emphasises that. The 'swingometer' affect of the first 4 months of the War is the biggest single element in the game and deciding it's outcome, clearly.



Yup, this game is not as forgiving to the Germans as WITE1 is. You have to be on your toes from the very beginning with clear objectives & stellar logistics. Proper SU mgmt as Germans is a must too to get the biggest bang for your buck where & when you need it. Then as Germans you have to know how to attack and with how much. Added to this the light mud weather that plasters almost the whole of Russia from turn 5 on you are going to have the majority of German flapping around like a fish out of water.


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Post #: 197
T49 - 8/21/2021 12:27:11 PM   
loki100


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Since I have these written and there is a lack of 1942 reports for the 1941 GC, I'll post what I have. After that it'll be intermittent catch up and data dumps if anyone is interested:

T49 – 24 May 1942

Weather as predicted, light rain, ground conditions either clear or light mud. Looks like exactly the same next week.

Soviet attacks all along the front but nothing sustained. Exception to this was at Leningrad where they got a bit frisky ... .

Guess that means they are still heavily committed to this sector as that was a substantive effort by the VVS (remember at this stage there is a shortage of ShAK AOGs).



So with a larger commitment that isolates Sevastopol, I only lost 15 planes in the operation so this is now sustainable.



Followed up with another attack, not a serious commitment but it takes out more fortifications and hard to replace supply and ammunition. Completely fresh units arrived this turn and a few of the refitting ones will be ready next turn as well.



Shift of focus, 19 Pzr is now mobile, 1 Pzr gets released from Berlin next turn. The local nightclub owners lament the loss of business (but there are still about 200,000 potential replacements wandering around the place).



Let the units involved in the Kursk-Orel operation have a break, but since 4 PzrA was only partially committed last week, attacked north of the Donets. Small pocket, a few shattered units and one stomped all over Cavalry Corps. Some probing attacks around Stalino suggest the Soviets may have pulled off their reserves here.



Army level supply position, still some shortages and my rails are very congested.



Quick truck review. The Soviets have stopped sending me sufficient replacements.

Not really making much progress with repairs.

And respective losses so far.



Wider losses. The 3:1 overall ratio is pretty dire but reflects where I am in that I have little choice but to fight to gain even a small bit of movement capacity.



Guess the best that can be said is they have no effective reserves at the moment.

Over the next few turns I gain a few infantry divisions returned from France and the Italian 8A. At least that will fill in some of the gaps I am leaving.



One part of my current mindset is the line I've held this winter will also be an important defensive line late in 1942 (I am not optimistic about what the summer offensive will yield). So as I have a lot of #2 and a number of #3 level fortifications, often in what are key hexes, I'm making sure this line doesn't degrade and even builds up if I can. The Italians will be very useful in this role.

More generally, have been spending an age on studying the map and rail/supply net. So the operation along the north bank of the Donets is chosen for 2 reasons.

One is it will make a mess of the Soviet N-S rail system (if they are pushed to rely on the single track lines down the Volga that is real constraint). Second the end goal is ambigious, it can become an attack towards the Don south of Voronezh or to cut the Dombas-Stalingrad rail junctions.

In both cases, the 11A post-Crimea becomes the key to both flank security and for any stage when the fighting becomes sustained rather than based around movement.

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Post #: 198
T50 - 8/21/2021 12:29:40 PM   
loki100


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T50 – 31 May 1942

Weather as predicted, but clear skies along the Black Sea/Sea of Azov. Elsewhere ground is a mix of clear and light mud. Air blockade of Sevastopol held so its now isolated. Limited Soviet attacks on AGC but nothing sustained.

Main specific air operation is secure the approaches to Sevastopol again. Major reorganisation of the Rumanian and Hungarian commitment. Pulled their less useful formations off the map and some disbanding of recon formations to put planes and pilots into a small number of active units.

So, a rare outright victory, and that leaves some 7 rifle divisions ripe for picking off.



But you really have to give it to the Rumanians, that is inept stuff. So have to use German units just to reduce a small pocket of brigade sized formations.



Anyway despite that world beating display of incompetence, overran the pocket and actually managed to break out. I'm using up a lot of MP moving infantry into contact to try and judge the Soviet front line but that, combined with air recon, does start to pay off. This turn the pocket is 2 rifle divisions and a cavalry corps.

I know they have a lot of powerful units just to the north around Stary Oskol (at least 2 of their Gds Rifle Corps) so they can close this off but finally may have to start weakening one sector to seal down another.

Small bonus is cutting the single track N-S rail, only the dual track to the east to go for that part of the operation.



Now that revision of their front line strengths adjusting my plans. Decided to let 1 Pzr A have another rest, just in case they do weaken their lines covering the direct route to Voronezh.

Basically 3 Pzr A is a defensive force, though it controls my forces facing Orel, I am actually afraid the Soviets will take advantage of this relatively weak spot.

Unit and air recon suggests that the Soviet are weak around Kastornoe (ie the direct route to Voronezh) and Livny (which threatens their large group around Orel with encirclement – or more plausibly with resupply problems).

In the end struck around Livny, Orel is a more immediate objective (I want the rail junction as much as anything else) and that starts to construct a salient that in theory 2 and 3 Pzr could snip off with a small pocket.

One immediate gain of dealing with Sevastopol is I can bring a group of bombers back to this section and return to rail usage interdiction. Really anything that adds to the stress the Soviets must be under to keep a large force at Orel as I slowly break up its communications.




Losses, for once, rather good to read. Almost 150k permanent Soviet losses must hinder their ability to both generate replacements and new formations. That includes 10 destroyed divisions and 7 brigades. There are another 7 divisions still in the Crimea.




Manpower pools, for the moment have the Red Army's ability to grow under some degree of control.



Bit of an overview to put some of that discussion into context.



So that gives me 587 VP (and a new HWM) for Sevastopol and the +6 time bonus. I guess that the bulk of 11A won't be available till late June as there will be at least one, possibly 2 turns to finish the Soviets off, some time for refit and redeployment.

Small point, have now exceeded the 'Sudden Loss' score for October, so we have to go to (at least) December 1944 for the next game end point.

I'll leave you to guess how all these individual operations are meant to slot together, but I do have a long term structure (even if it is totally unrealistic).

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Post #: 199
T51 - 8/25/2021 7:53:16 PM   
loki100


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T51 – 7 June 1941

So .. clearly the Soviets are fleeing to the Urals, and my truck repair mechanics remain utterly useless.



Weather remains rain and odd combinations of light mud or clear. Next turn the rain should just be over the northern half of the front.

Looks like the Soviets are getting frisky again – but mostly hit my allies.



Back to bombing what I think are key parts of their rail net, can't help them much even if its all rather low key.



To describe this sector as 'hotting up' is perhaps a bit excessive but the Soviets were trying things on, so decided to remind them who is meant to have the initiative at this phase of the war.



2 and 3 Pzr A continued to attack around Orel. Another small pocket (5 divisions) carved out.

To the south, 1 Pzr A launched a limited attack towards Voronezh. Soviet tank corps intervened (via reserve reactions) but mostly just added to the damage handed out. Mostly pulled back to limit my exposure and encourage the Soviets forward.

Feasibly that sets up a potential pocket around Novy Oskol if the Soviets aren't careful (or more likely aren't set up in multiple lines as usual). More usefully it tells me where the Soviets don't want me to go, especially given their relatively weak (if deep) set up around Orel. Also their strong commitment in the Stalino sector where unusually even the front line is heavily stacked.

Not shown but apart from clearing out the pocket, 4 Pzr A opted to spend the week recovering.

No attacks in the Crimea as those Soviet units around Sevastopol remain too strong to handle. Pulled about half the axis assault forces out of the Crimea to refit, rest need to stay to deal with what I've cut off.



Losses, at a guess I am stopping any further growth of the Red Army if I can sustain over >100k casualties per turn. Setting up a sequence of small pockets does help quite a lot. Less interested in knocking out Soviet tanks but I know their Tank Corps are not going to be very mobile next turn.



Air losses remain heavy, pragmatically I'm prepared to take losses for the occasional massive GS boost.



Rare view of the destroyed unit table. In effect it shows why I'm in this mess.

Over the last 4 turns I've destroyed 1 Rifle Corps, 1 Cavalry Corps, 14 Rifle Divisions, 1 Cavalry Division, 11 Rifle Brigades and 3 Tank Brigades. There are 5 Rifle and 2 Cavalry divisions cut off in the Crimea and 5 Rifle Divisions in a pocket south of Orel.

All very nice but really not even starting to make up for the lack of destroyed formations in 1941.



So this really doesn't get any better to look at as a result.



Hard to work out the Soviet deployment. My best guesses is they don't seem to care if I make gains along the line of the Donets and seem to have given up at Orel. Here they are in depth but never very strong. They seem to really not want me to move towards Voronezh or around Stalino.

Not sure if their various operations against AGN are serious attempts or just probing.

My fear is a sustained effort towards Smolensk but no signs of that. That would be the one thing that would force a major redeployment, but equally I'd quite like a running battle in relatively open terrain. I'm suspicious as to why they are so strong around Stalino. I can't believe its in preparation for an offensive but its not a sector where they have much to lose if I made any small gains.

From my perspective, all I can do is to exploit my 2 remaining advantages. The low Soviet NM up to September will mean that many battles end with them routing and that helps degrade their forces on a given sector. And time, I basically have 3 months of good weather and they don't seem to be keen to pull off a major retreat. In effect, my supply situation for the current front lines is decent and I'm filling in the few gaps in the rail net.

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Post #: 200
T52 - 8/25/2021 7:55:13 PM   
loki100


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T52 – 14 June 1942

So we get to celebrate one year of this, rather large, mistake. I'm just over automatic defeat (HWM test) and 170 short of a sudden victory (I have 3 turns to reach the next test point) - I think we can all guess what that means.

Still at least the Soviets carry on fleeing to the Urals, thats another 9,000 refusing to fight any more.



What remains of them are both busy and nosy.

But the pocket from last turn held.



Spot the first appearance of non-Gds Rifle Corps, so can assume there are at least 16 of the damn things. Actually found #18 around Orel. A lot seem to be facing AGN and AGC.



Anyway, in reality I think this is the turn I know I've lost with no remaining illusions. Couldn't manage an encirclement at Orel but should manage something next turn. Goal really is to keep the Soviets busy on multiple sectors so that hopefully one remains weak.



1 and 4 Pzr tried to generate some sort of small pocket west of the Don. Again too many reserve reactions and increasingly strong second lines means I have to concentrate too much even to make a small gap.



Mostly infantry attacks along the Donets.



To put things in context, that is the state of my on map Pzr and tank formations (incl Rumanian and Hungarian units). 11A was really hit in the Sevastopol battles so won't be available for at least another 3 turns.



Tank pools (German only), including stuff out of production. There is no practical way to recover my losses or those under-strength divisions.



Guess you need to take re-assurance where you find it. At least this ratio looks ok.



And I get the Italian reinforcements, at the worst that gives me some flank/rear protection.

But time to be realistic about where this is going.

Current VP chart, so I pass the October HWM loss. I can't see how I'm going to take more than 2 more of that list (& maybe not even that), so lets say I get a HWM of 610.



So for the Soviets to regain the initiative they need to knock 61 off this. They are well placed for time bonus so each lost city will be 16 not 10. Given where the front is, Stalino, Orel (I am assuming I will take that), Kharkov and Kursk are all easy losses (the +6 for Kursk is already claimed). That is then 58, a few for theatre boxes and we are looking at an initiative change in say October/November.



Given what I've not taken, the time bonuses are then allocated. This is going to be around +42 (locations never taken that were taken).

The Soviets then get the VP for the cities they hold at that stage. That is going to be well over 400 (in my Soviet AAR I had 340 on initiative change and the only ahistoric hold was Stalingrad).

So, a loss in early 1943?

Should note not blaming the game system. I made enough mistakes in the second half of the summer of 1941 to have set this up. The reality is I have turned 1942 into 1943, in reality I should go over to the strategic defensive now and try to maximise my options in that phase rather than lose more making increasingly limited gains.

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Post #: 201
RE: T52 - 8/26/2021 5:27:19 AM   
erikbengtsson


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quote:

The reality is I have turned 1942 into 1943, in reality I should go over to the strategic defensive now and try to maximise my options in that phase rather than lose more making increasingly limited gains.

Sounds like a smart plan. You have enough troops and mobile formations intact to be able to respond well to any Soviet offensives. Manstein's Kharkov counterblow, one after another..

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Post #: 202
RE: T52 - 8/27/2021 11:12:36 AM   
RoadWarrior

 

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Doesn't seem remotely historical - Russian on the offensive in 42.
What happened to the magical spring 42 German recovery everyone talks about?

1. SHC is unhistorically rewarded to retreat a few hexes a turn until the logistic chain stops GHC in the center and south. An Army that is simply marching forward turn after turn and hardly fighting is using very few supplies, this is just basic math!!!!!! Supplies shortages for Germans and Russians were caused by heavy fighting or fuel by long advances, not both sides holding hands taking a summer walk together 30 miles a week to the east.
2. So moral, KIA and factory loses are far lower than historical, supplies for some reason are low based on a lack of combat?????
3. By 1942 German Army is at 1943 levels and Russian Army at 1944 levels. There is no 1942, which is why games will end in 44.
The massive encirclements of spring and summer of 1942 are not possible because SHC has 1/2 dozen Armies that can easily break open almost any pocket in 1942, when historically that simply was not the case. Supplies and replacements were a major issue in 42 for SHC, but not in this game. The combat tempo of 41 is simply not happening and a logistics system that is hard wired to output data that says the combat tempo is high when it simply is low, very low if the hand holding is done right.
4. The logistics system is a single system for both sides when historically it simply was not. This is by far the biggest problem with the game.
5. Because of the logistic system (1 system for both sides) simply is not working historically; it causes a feedback loop where the attack never runs out of supplies. When historically the Russians took months to build up supplies for major operations and then had to stop after some small gains because they ran out.

Summer 1941 was a blood bath. The Russians caused supply issues for the Germans, because they attacked causing shortages and delaying German advances. The 1941 supply issues were not caused long summer walks.

The logistic system appears to need allot of tweaking, allot.

Sadly I would have to say 1.0 is more of a historical simulation than 2.0.


< Message edited by RoadWarrior -- 8/27/2021 12:35:50 PM >

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Post #: 203
RE: T52 - 8/28/2021 1:36:36 AM   
GloriousRuse

 

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Leaving aside the fact that we have several games...including yours RW...where the retreating soviets gets caught and destroyed, let's address the false claim that it was only hard fighting that gave the Germans logistics problems. To cite David Glantz, AGC alone, if meeting no Russian resistance in its drive to Moscow, would have a requirement for 33x trains of supply a day. It could, at best, generate 24 trains a day. In mid July, 5-6 trains a day werr arriving at Minsk before transloading on to trucks for round trips of up to 700km on mostly unimproved roads.

To mind, keeping AGC in fuel for one day of normal operations would take 12 trains. Simple rations for the day would use 2 trains. And if you actually needed to replace a basic load of ammo, 36 trains.

So...yeah. Walks eastward would actually drain the Heer. After heading east of the Dnepr, if anything th German player gets a bit of a helping hand to let him keep playing without a sudden paradigm shift on T5 or so.

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Post #: 204
RE: T52 - 8/28/2021 7:06:00 AM   
erikbengtsson


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I think the biggest difference is a Soviet player has historical hindsight, and doesn't commit the catastrophical and self-defeating errors that Stalin and Stavka did in 1941 and during much of 42.

Germany lost the war on June 22nd of 1941. Soviet errors simply made that less than obvious for a while.

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Post #: 205
RE: T52 - 8/28/2021 7:39:05 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RoadWarrior
...

4. The logistics system is a single system for both sides when historically it simply was not. This is by far the biggest problem with the game.
5. Because of the logistic system (1 system for both sides) simply is not working historically; it causes a feedback loop where the attack never runs out of supplies. When historically the Russians took months to build up supplies for major operations and then had to stop after some small gains because they ran out.

Summer 1941 was a blood bath. The Russians caused supply issues for the Germans, because they attacked causing shortages and delaying German advances. The 1941 supply issues were not caused long summer walks.

The logistic system appears to need allot of tweaking, allot.

Sadly I would have to say 1.0 is more of a historical simulation than 2.0.



lets agree that for one reason and another there is a balance issue at the moment.

But ... this is really not a valid point. It takes a degree of myopia to describe the logistics system as simple compared to the binary approach in WiTE1. What it does, well, is to force both sides to keep to the better supply corridors, or (& you can do this), carefully construct the infrastructure to support something different.

and I can't even start to see how #1 gets described as more historical than #2 with its endless tricks to manipulate the game systems (most of which are now much harder)

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RE: T52 - 8/28/2021 7:44:50 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: erikbengtsson

I think the biggest difference is a Soviet player has historical hindsight, and doesn't commit the catastrophical and self-defeating errors that Stalin and Stavka did in 1941 and during much of 42.

Germany lost the war on June 22nd of 1941. Soviet errors simply made that less than obvious for a while.


yep, fully agree.

assuming a reasonable match, then the axis shouldn't be able to win (in the sense that the Soviet Union is reduced to some sort of rump state over the Urals).

What we are currently seeing is reports of quick German wins (usually in the sense the Soviet player gives up leaving no real idea of how well they can recover). Take 'received wisdom' and Leningrad. At one stage in testing, it was declared it was impossible to take, then players started to work out how to take it. Ok, we now see games where Leningrad is taken. Its a nice VP bonus, shortens the line, but beyond that?

My concern at the moment is a feeling that the balance pt should be roughly the historical German advance in 1941. No its feasible, and sensible, that German players may wish to pull up short of this, but that should be something regularly seen. And its actually near to impossible, even vs the AI (on 110) you can forget about achieving it

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RE: T52 - 8/28/2021 9:41:36 AM   
SigUp

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

My concern at the moment is a feeling that the balance pt should be roughly the historical German advance in 1941. No its feasible, and sensible, that German players may wish to pull up short of this, but that should be something regularly seen. And its actually near to impossible, even vs the AI (on 110) you can forget about achieving it

I think what the engine is struggling to replicate is the German ability to produce significant tactical results even when their units were close to being burnt out and lacking supplies. Obviously I haven't had as much experience with the game as some others, but to me it seems that the combination of level 1 fortifications being built to quickly and the drain on German CV through losses and the breaking down of logistics saps German ability to move the front far faster than was historically the case.

Another problem that I feel is the engine overstates Soviet offensive capabilities in 1941 and early 1942. Those hastily raised formations that were forced to conduct offensive operations had a significant lack of experience and competent NCOs. Currently reading Stahel's Retreat from Moscow and he works out in detail how Red Army formations were incapable of executing even the most basic offensive maneuvers, regularly smashing frontally into fortified German positions and failing to work with combined arms. Soviet losses during the Winter offensive of 41-42 were absolutely horrendous and I don't think the engine currently is capable of reflecting that.

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Post #: 208
RE: T52 - 8/28/2021 9:49:25 AM   
erikbengtsson


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quote:

Another problem that I feel is the engine overstates Soviet offensive capabilities in 1941 and early 1942. Those hastily raised formations that were forced to conduct offensive operations had a significant lack of experience and competent NCOs. Currently reading Stahel's Retreat from Moscow and he works out in detail how Red Army formations were incapable of executing even the most basic offensive maneuvers, regularly smashing frontally into fortified German positions and failing to work with combined arms. Soviet losses during the Winter offensive of 41-42 were absolutely horrendous and I don't think the engine currently is capable of reflecting that.

Good point.

I think one thing that can easily be done to change the balance somewhat, and reducing Soviet combat capability in 41, is to remove the ability to use assault HQ's until just before the start of the historical winter offensive (turn 24, when the Soviet manpower boost is released is a suggestion). I would suggest the same for spring and summer of 1942.

Without assault HQ's, Soviet combat units will have a harder time draining axis CV, both in defence and when counterattacking.

< Message edited by erikbengtsson -- 8/28/2021 9:53:15 AM >

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Post #: 209
RE: T52 - 8/28/2021 11:20:16 AM   
loki100


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My feeling (& its not much more than that), is the problem of Soviet recovery (which is too fast) comes off a few issues:

a) in the main the game models Soviet capacity rather than practical capability

This is close to the Soviet pre-37 defensive plan where an offensive is absorbed by the first echelon forces, stalled by the second echelon and thrown back by the third. Now the latter was clearly an over-estimate (& mostly is not what is happening) but the first 2 reflect what we are often seeing?

b) some easy hits on capability

b1) raise the command divisor to /14 for army level till say 1 December, its not much but it removes the real value of getting the top 10 commanders into the main forces early on
b2) as others have said, no assualt fronts before december and only 1 then. That not only hampers the CPP regain, it adds to the leadership problems.

In testing, most Soviet players didn't go for early assault fronts as the perception was there were better uses for the admin pts. In consequence the game played a lot better - now its inevitable that people experiment, report and that gets copied, and we get a new feeling for overall balance.

b3) Admin movemement is removed after an attack, that should stop the hit and run stuff that a lot of Soviet players now indulge in. Worth remembering that Kravchenko's tank victory in late Sept 41 was essentially a defensive ambush not a mobile operation.

c) don't mess with logistics, despite some claims the system works and hits both sides in the right way

d) I'd be cautious about reducing the time to level 1 fort, mainly as that could make a real mess of any later Axis defences in the Ukraine

If there is a simple fix, its take off Soviet assault fronts in 1941. I'd be more interested in that than any of the more esoteric house rules being adopted. As above, I know that until quite late in testing it wasn't regularly used and it did make for very different play dynamics. I don't think there have been any really major code changes since then so (wearing my social policy evaluation hat), if there is something big and different focus on that rather than something small and marginal?

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