MaxDemian
Posts: 22
Joined: 11/9/2015 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: AndrewNguyen1984 Any thoughts on this article. Honestly the author is right about China and Taiwan. https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-must-avoid-war-china-101849384.html Since you are interested in the subject, I would recommend the book: The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia, by Ian Easton. Even if Taiwan would not receive help from the outside, it would be far from a cake-walk for the PLA. In WW2, the US planned an invasion of Taiwan. Given the huge advantage the terrain of Taiwan bestows on the defender, they estimated they would need a 5:1 ratio to prevail. Their intelligence reported 100,000 Japanese soldiers on the island, necessitating a 500,000 strong invasion force. By 1945, there were 150,000 Japanese defending the island. As we know from history, the US invaded the Philippines instead. Today, Taiwan has a reserve force 1.6 million strong than can be called up on short notice, in addition to their regulars strength of 165,000. Therefore, the PLA would need to amass an invasion army 9 million men strong, which by far exceeds their current strength. To build up to that strength will take months of preparation and will raise red flags all over the world, giving ample time to Taiwan and everyone else with a stake in their independence to prepare. Confronting the PLA in skies over Taiwan and the seas around it is not the only available response option to the US and its allies. The author is right that such a response would be playing to the advantages of the PLA. However, there is another strategy that plays to the advantages of the USN, Japan et al, that can be done at a much smaller military cost: a maritime blockade. China is neither food nor energy independent. Their exports are worth 2.6 trillion dollars, some 17% of their economy, most of which depend on undisturbed access to the sea. A maritime blockade would have a devastating consequence on their economy, and potentially their long term war-fighting capability.
< Message edited by MaxDemian -- 10/6/2021 11:18:46 AM >
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