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OIL OIL OIL - 10/18/2021 11:37:06 AM   
Oberst Hausser

 

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Joined: 10/18/2021
Status: offline 		DOES it mean anything IF the German capture the Caucuses oil areas? Like does German supply go up 100% any time soon that makes a difference ??

This is one of the MAIN achievements that can rebalance the operational factors of the game. Even if the Germans could capture XXX barrels and STORE it ( say to supply 2 Panzer groups ( full) for a year)) THAT would make a difference.

I think alternative histories SHOULD be part of the game...

Lastly, the German captured gazillion amounts of equipment, easily enough to supply the Romanians for example, Russian artillery should be part of any elite formation ( in similar numbers to German). The only issue is ammo which will run out faster...
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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/18/2021 1:07:34 PM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		well this isn't an AAR so in the wrong forum

equally, by the time an Axis player has captured, repaired and hooked in the Caucasus oil then they have more than likely won the game using the VP system

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/18/2021 2:16:02 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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Status: offline 		Joel Billings commented on this in my AAR last week too. I would like to differentiate that if you are playing the "No Early End" scenario the Germans can not win until the end of 1944 so a VP won on that front can't happen and Oil is a very viable option. Of course as Loki said it is how quickly you can hook that oil into the network after being repaired and how long you can hold on to the Oil.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/18/2021 2:41:43 PM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		my experience of the late game with the Axis is (perhaps unrealistically), the synthetic fuel production is all you need even at the back end of 1944 - and there I had a much larger extent Pzr force than compared to the starting position in Vist-Berlin.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/18/2021 2:47:57 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

my experience of the late game with the Axis is (perhaps unrealistically), the synthetic fuel production is all you need even at the back end of 1944 - and there I had a much larger extent Pzr force than compared to the starting position in Vist-Berlin.


Your experience is probably true since I don't have that experience at all yet. But Joel Billings said, in so many words, that any oil you get would be a benefit to long term sustainability in that department. Thus I have added it to my grab at all cost items in a "no early end" scenario.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 7:23:46 AM   
Kursk1943

 

Posts: 445
Joined: 3/15/2014
From: Bavaria in Southern Germany
Status: offline 		I've played the "no early end" scenario as Axis till Feb 1944 and have captured the Caucasian oilfields in the end of 1942. There was a steady rise of oil stores for me, increasing with the rate of repair and asharp decline for the Soviets. But there was no apparent effect on my fuel stores, they were even declining (perhaps because of the Strategic Boming Offensive?). The Soviet fuel stores didn' t decline either, though their oil stores were nearly nil. But I also never felt a shortage of fuel for the armoured and motorized divisions. But there were plenty of supply shortages even with the railways up to the front when fighting in the Ural areas. I think that was because of the ultra-long supply distances overburdening the Reichsbahn.
So my feeling is that you gain lots of oil by getting the Caucasus, but it doesn't seem to affect the fuel production.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 9:34:07 AM   
Xareon63

 

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Status: offline 		Does this mean that it isn't worth repairing the oil at 184,190 when you capture it T2ish?

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 10:45:11 AM   
loki100


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Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		that one is worth it, you have good nearby railyards so any production gets moved to where its needed. I wouldn't bother to spend admin pts on it, its just a nice extra rather than essential.

The final problem with the Caucasus oil is not just the slow rate of repair for the facilities or the enduring malus for using a captured Soviet asset (think of having inherited something that was out of date before hand and a struggle for suitable equipment), you need railyards to generate the capacity to move it to the Reich. In the wider region the only really large railyards are Grozny and Baku.

Equally I think this whole issue is a bit of King Charles' head in terms of its importance. I've actually played an Axis GC to the 31 December 1944 victory point. And never had any problem keeping my Pzr/Pzr Gr formations up in the high 40s - despite having lost Ploesti etc.

As in the post above, the synthetic fuel seems to be all you need

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 1:11:04 PM   
Speedysteve

 

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Joined: 9/11/2001
From: Reading, England
Status: offline 		Hmm if that’s the case maybe (with more examples) some of the production aspects/affects could be tweaked since we all know historically the Germans suffered noticeable affects from a lack of oil?

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 1:27:50 PM   
Karri

 

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Status: offline 		If you tweak the production figures or add panzer forces in the editor you can see that it quickly destroyed the balance. And that's just the thing, currently, the scenarios are balanced so that neither side will round out of oil/fuel.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 1:47:06 PM   
jubjub

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kursk1943

I've played the "no early end" scenario as Axis till Feb 1944 and have captured the Caucasian oilfields in the end of 1942. There was a steady rise of oil stores for me, increasing with the rate of repair and asharp decline for the Soviets. But there was no apparent effect on my fuel stores, they were even declining (perhaps because of the Strategic Boming Offensive?). The Soviet fuel stores didn' t decline either, though their oil stores were nearly nil. But I also never felt a shortage of fuel for the armoured and motorized divisions. But there were plenty of supply shortages even with the railways up to the front when fighting in the Ural areas. I think that was because of the ultra-long supply distances overburdening the Reichsbahn.
So my feeling is that you gain lots of oil by getting the Caucasus, but it doesn't seem to affect the fuel production.


It increases your fuel production by about 10-20% if I remember correctly. You are limited by the amount of refineries that can process the oil, but you will still be in a perpetual deficit. I wish it mattered more, and maybe it will once they get around to making the Luftwaffe more relevant.

It seems like there's way too much fuel storage for the Soviets. It's very expensive to store diesel, and it naturally degrades within 6 months to a year under good conditions. It seems unrealistic for them to be able to store 14 million tons of it (current level in my '42 game), but maybe I'm missing something. I think if they changed this, it could be very meaningful to deprive the USSR of its Caucasus oil.

For comparison, the US currently only keeps 8.6 million barrels of gasoline on hand, representing about a month's worth of gasoline consumption. Obviously, the economies are vastly different, but still do we really think the Soviet Union was able to store 2x more refined fuel products than the US currently does?

If you compare the in-game consumption and storage, with 14 million tons of fuel stored and 100k / week (max) consumption in '42, the Soviets would run out in 12 years with no new fuel production! This is so egregious that I think I'm going to make a ticket in the map data page.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:07:10 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedysteve

Hmm if that’s the case maybe (with more examples) some of the production aspects/affects could be tweaked since we all know historically the Germans suffered noticeable affects from a lack of oil?


There is a pretty fundamental part of the game design here - and it runs deep into how the whole thing fits together.

At the core the production side is pretty secondary, clearly there are caps for all sorts of things but in the main its not trying to model industrial output. You see this in WiTW, you can bomb out say German production of Pzr IV (& a very good idea that is too) but you can't bomb out core German production (or even via railyards the means to move that production around). Some of this I think reflects that despite all the stresses, German industry only really fell apart in 1945 as bits of the Reich got overrun.

What the game is about is distribution with all the stresses. limits and challenges there.

So put that together, and yeah, you have enough fuel for your likely forces

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karri

If you tweak the production figures or add panzer forces in the editor you can see that it quickly destroyed the balance. And that's just the thing, currently, the scenarios are balanced so that neither side will round out of oil/fuel.


I'd concur with this, we've seen a few complaints from people who modded in a vastly expanded Axis army that the 'supply system doesn't work' - well its not designed to support the extra 30+ divisions they gave themselves

equally,

quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub

..

... but you will still be in a perpetual deficit. I wish it mattered more, and maybe it will once they get around to making the Luftwaffe more relevant....




is only partly correct, the notional deficit seems to have zero impact and its not a case of using or not the LW. Don't want to get into another airwar debate, but I've had steady use out of the available LW to the end of 1944 (not sure how I could have got more given the total shambles it was by the end of the game).

But, to stress, production is a notional construct in the game design. Distribution to support combat operations is the real focus.



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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:12:08 PM   
jubjub

 

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quote:

is only partly correct, the notional deficit seems to have zero impact and its not a case of using or not the LW.


That extra fuel has to go somewhere...

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:19:38 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub

quote:

is only partly correct, the notional deficit seems to have zero impact and its not a case of using or not the LW.


That extra fuel has to go somewhere...


it doesn't, I've got 1945 saves for both axis and Soviet 1941 GC - which is why I'm pretty sure its all about distribution. In this game, my Pzrs still had regularly 40+MP.

T186:






Attachment (1)

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:21:34 PM   
jubjub

 

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Status: offline 		What is consuming the extra fuel from turns 1-60? Is the fuel deficit only impacting the civilian economy?

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:25:07 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub

What is consuming the extra fuel from turns 1-60? Is the fuel deficit only impacting the civilian economy?


I honestly don't have a clue .

But this is one of the advantages of having played complete games, I admit to often not knowing why things happen, but I have real examples of what does happen.

I've never understood the production system, just have grasped that it is in many ways a bit of a red herring and you are far better keeping attention to distribution. I think its a core part of Gary's basic design that there are no production shortages as such.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:30:24 PM   
jubjub

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub

What is consuming the extra fuel from turns 1-60? Is the fuel deficit only impacting the civilian economy?


I honestly don't have a clue .

But this is one of the advantages of having played complete games, I admit to often not knowing why things happen, but I have real examples of what does happen.

I've never understood the production system, just have grasped that it is in many ways a bit of a red herring and you are far better keeping attention to distribution. I think its a core part of Gary's basic design that there are no production shortages as such.


Hm, idk if I agree with that approach, although I'm sure it simplifies things. If this is the case, it is disadvantageous to transport the oil back to Germany since it will take up rail capacity. This seems contrary to a main motivation for the war in the first place - to secure oil for the fatherland!

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:33:28 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub

What is consuming the extra fuel from turns 1-60? Is the fuel deficit only impacting the civilian economy?


I honestly don't have a clue .

But this is one of the advantages of having played complete games, I admit to often not knowing why things happen, but I have real examples of what does happen.

I've never understood the production system, just have grasped that it is in many ways a bit of a red herring and you are far better keeping attention to distribution. I think its a core part of Gary's basic design that there are no production shortages as such.


Joel mentioned it does have benefits & I am pursuing Oil in a game being tracked by an AAR. I know that your empirical knowledge is usually spot on too Loki :). As such, I would really like to know for sure if this does or does not have an impact. Or will my game end up being another "lab rat"?

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:34:12 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub

What is consuming the extra fuel from turns 1-60? Is the fuel deficit only impacting the civilian economy?


I honestly don't have a clue .

But this is one of the advantages of having played complete games, I admit to often not knowing why things happen, but I have real examples of what does happen.

I've never understood the production system, just have grasped that it is in many ways a bit of a red herring and you are far better keeping attention to distribution. I think its a core part of Gary's basic design that there are no production shortages as such.


Hm, idk if I agree with that approach, although I'm sure it simplifies things. If this is the case, it is disadvantageous to transport the oil back to Germany since it will take up rail capacity. This seems contrary to a main motivation for the war in the first place - to secure oil for the fatherland!



Exactly!

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:45:29 PM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100


quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub

What is consuming the extra fuel from turns 1-60? Is the fuel deficit only impacting the civilian economy?


I honestly don't have a clue .

But this is one of the advantages of having played complete games, I admit to often not knowing why things happen, but I have real examples of what does happen.

I've never understood the production system, just have grasped that it is in many ways a bit of a red herring and you are far better keeping attention to distribution. I think its a core part of Gary's basic design that there are no production shortages as such.


Hm, idk if I agree with that approach, although I'm sure it simplifies things. If this is the case, it is disadvantageous to transport the oil back to Germany since it will take up rail capacity. This seems contrary to a main motivation for the war in the first place - to secure oil for the fatherland!



only in the most marginal of senses. Remember that freight (which is what your oil becomes) claims 'trains' from railyards within 30 hexes (by rail). So if you have the N Caucasus oilfields you are probably using Grozny & Krasnodar (they are the only 2+ in the region), if you have Baku then that is a huge railyard.

So this isn't competing with the rail cap used to shift stuff from NSS to the front, or from your functioning rear area depots up to the front.

Going back to what I said about WiTW above is relevant here. The Allies can't really wreck German HI or resource production but you get VPs for inflicting the damage (& in the end the VPs from the air war are what wins - or not - the game for the Allies).

So here, I think the Caucasus is a VP thing.

Again, not really the place but I'm not sure what the Germans would have really got out of the region. The USSR had scarcely ever invested in oil production so the local technology and infrastructure was pretty dire. To get it working would have been a massive investment. If Germany had 'won' the war and had a couple of years to sort it out I'm sure they could have extracted enough to really make a difference to their wider economy. I remain very dubious that would have been the case in the war period.

About the only place in the world where you could take the oil out of the ground and use it is the reserves on the Libyan-Algerian border.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 2:56:00 PM   
jubjub

 

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Status: offline 		Found this with a quick search: https://histclo.com/essay/war/ww2/eco/raw/oil/w2ero-ger.html

'Maikop alone would have given the Germans what they needed. The Germans had expected Soviet demolition of the oil fields and refineries and rushed specialists to Maikop to repair the damage. But the field was very effectively demolished. And substantial repairs were needed requiring a great deal of equipment and material. The entire southern operation was being run on a shoe string and the German logistical system was barely supplying the minimum needs of the front-line soldiers, Thus getting large quantities of drilling equipment and other supplies through to Maikop proved impossible. In addition the small German oil industry had only a small number of qualified men who were capable of redrilling the wells. And there was the additional problem of bringing the refineries back on line. The Germans had only begun this process when the Soviet launched Operation Uranus, surrounding the 6th Army in Stalingrad (November 1942). As a result of this and further Red Army offensives, the Germans were forced to withdraw from Maikop (January 1943). Not a single barrel of oil had been raised. The Germans were able to extract about 4.7 million barrels from other Soviet sources. [Petzina, pp. 143-44.]'

Seems like you've got a point there. I do think you should be rewarded if you manage to hold the area long enough to extract oil though.

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 3:13:36 PM   
Jango32

 

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Status: offline 		I'll leave this image album with information on Soviet petroleum industry development: https://imgur.com/a/qXGPBPB

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 5:16:24 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jango32

I'll leave this image album with information on Soviet petroleum industry development: https://imgur.com/a/qXGPBPB


fascinating thank you, so the Soviets seriously modernised their oil industry from the late 1920s. Wonder if that would have made it easier for the Germans or not, guess would depend in part how available the parts and technical skills to repurpose essentially US-UK equipment was?

thats after sorting out the inevitable sabotage etc

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 5:48:37 PM   
Denniss

 

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From: Germany, Hannover (region)
Status: offline 		Note:
for some reason unknown to me the fuel refineries are removed after capture, just oil continues to exist.
due to different production multiplier Axis may only get half the oil from captured oil facilities.
I hope we may use the event system at some time in the future to actually reduce available oil in a location to simulate the massive sabotage made by retreating soviets

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RE: OIL OIL OIL - 10/19/2021 5:58:28 PM   
Joch1955

 

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Joined: 9/5/2020
Status: offline 		Hi, just got the game so still catching up, but dealing with this issue based on historical documents.

re: Caucasus. As noted above, the Russians completely wrecked the wells and the Germans were not able to fix them before they evacuated. But even if they had, there was no practical way to get the Oil back to Germany. There were no pipelines, so the Oil would have had to be transported by rail cars or shipped across the Black Sea. For a whole bunch of reasons, this was not a viable solution. Capturing the Caucasus Oil Fields was more about denying it to the Russians, than being able to use it themselves.

re: Oil Production. Oil producton, mostly synthetic Oil kept increasing until mid-44. Germans were always short and used strict rationing and allocations so that each branch (Army, Air Force, Navy, Industry, etc.) and Allies had just enough to meet operational needs. Even then, operations were often curtailed due to lack of fuel. The Germans also operated with a very small strategic reserve. At one point, Britsh intelligence was able to find out the number and they did not believe it was true since it was so low. Oil production only went down after mid-44 when 1) US/UK realized they should bomb the synthetic oil factories and 2) the Romanian Oil fields were lost. Even then, they were able to scrape enough fuel to supply the units in the battle of the Bulge with a 10 day supply.

< Message edited by Joch1955 -- 10/19/2021 5:59:46 PM >

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