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RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs DesertWolf101 (J)

 
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RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 8/20/2021 1:16:59 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

To my surprise, KB is striking industrial targets in Australia. He's made some VPs out of RESOURCES. The attacks on RESOURCES puzzle me: if he'd strike industry, I'd be quite relieved since it would lower the likelihood of he aiming to an Australian campaign.


Low hanging VP's for the IJ. Often undefended, and with limited flak and fighters in Oz this early, not very much that you can do with it at all.





The entire VP farming with KB right now doesn't convince me completely. It's almost January and KB is far away from the key area of operations (DEI), where instead I have over 300 embarked a/c.

We'll see...

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 181
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 8/20/2021 1:20:54 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

To my surprise, KB is striking industrial targets in Australia. He's made some VPs out of RESOURCES. The attacks on RESOURCES puzzle me: if he'd strike industry, I'd be quite relieved since it would lower the likelihood of he aiming to an Australian campaign.


Low hanging VP's for the IJ. Often undefended, and with limited flak and fighters in Oz this early, not very much that you can do with it at all.





The entire VP farming with KB right now doesn't convince me completely. It's almost January and KB is far away from the key area of operations (DEI), where instead I have over 300 embarked a/c.

We'll see...


Every VP garnered now works out as 4 (?) you will need to make back up in 1943 onwards for an auto-victory. Unlike base VP's (which will change the balance as the war progresses) strategic VP's are permanent, much like ship, aircraft or troop losses.

January is still very early doors. The amphib bonus runs until March, and even then a well prepared IJ player can carry out some limited offensive operations.

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 182
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 8/20/2021 1:33:43 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

To my surprise, KB is striking industrial targets in Australia. He's made some VPs out of RESOURCES. The attacks on RESOURCES puzzle me: if he'd strike industry, I'd be quite relieved since it would lower the likelihood of he aiming to an Australian campaign.


Low hanging VP's for the IJ. Often undefended, and with limited flak and fighters in Oz this early, not very much that you can do with it at all.





The entire VP farming with KB right now doesn't convince me completely. It's almost January and KB is far away from the key area of operations (DEI), where instead I have over 300 embarked a/c.

We'll see...


Every VP garnered now works out as 4 (?) you will need to make back up in 1943 onwards for an auto-victory. Unlike base VP's (which will change the balance as the war progresses) strategic VP's are permanent, much like ship, aircraft or troop losses.

January is still very early doors. The amphib bonus runs until March, and even then a well prepared IJ player can carry out some limited offensive operations.




There is an opportunity cost. I do believe that with KB in the DEI he can quickly overrun Singapore and immediately land in Java. At the same time, carry out major operations elsewhere.
I think there is a hidden opportunity cost between making VPs now in Australia and accelerating operations around the map: are we sure he makes more points in this way than, f.ex., supporting an early invasion of India or Australia with all the associated VPs gathered through destruction of devices/aircraft/etcetc? Personally, I'm not really convinced of these strikes.
Also, consider that we don't have any HR regarding strategic night bombing (meaning he can do it with whatever moonlight) and various Australian bases are quite exposed for long.




_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 183
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 8/20/2021 5:17:13 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

To my surprise, KB is striking industrial targets in Australia. He's made some VPs out of RESOURCES. The attacks on RESOURCES puzzle me: if he'd strike industry, I'd be quite relieved since it would lower the likelihood of he aiming to an Australian campaign.


Low hanging VP's for the IJ. Often undefended, and with limited flak and fighters in Oz this early, not very much that you can do with it at all.





The entire VP farming with KB right now doesn't convince me completely. It's almost January and KB is far away from the key area of operations (DEI), where instead I have over 300 embarked a/c.

We'll see...


Every VP garnered now works out as 4 (?) you will need to make back up in 1943 onwards for an auto-victory. Unlike base VP's (which will change the balance as the war progresses) strategic VP's are permanent, much like ship, aircraft or troop losses.

January is still very early doors. The amphib bonus runs until March, and even then a well prepared IJ player can carry out some limited offensive operations.




There is an opportunity cost. I do believe that with KB in the DEI he can quickly overrun Singapore and immediately land in Java. At the same time, carry out major operations elsewhere.
I think there is a hidden opportunity cost between making VPs now in Australia and accelerating operations around the map: are we sure he makes more points in this way than, f.ex., supporting an early invasion of India or Australia with all the associated VPs gathered through destruction of devices/aircraft/etcetc? Personally, I'm not really convinced of these strikes.
Also, consider that we don't have any HR regarding strategic night bombing (meaning he can do it with whatever moonlight) and various Australian bases are quite exposed for long.



Ships, troops, planes can all be relocated. You can't lose VP's if you choose to not engage the IJ.

Captured bases can be recaptured.

Industry can't be moved.

These types of strikes are designed to give a permanent boost the IJ VP count while applying pressure on the Allies to reinforce Australia, while at the same time being perfectly placed to interdict supply lines into Oz from the West Coast. It requires significantly less investment that a continental invasion of India or Australia (and the subsequent reinforcements that are triggered for the Allies if such a venture is made).

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 184
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 8/20/2021 6:55:06 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Ships, troops, planes can all be relocated. You can't lose VP's if you choose to not engage the IJ.

Captured bases can be recaptured.

Industry can't be moved.

These types of strikes are designed to give a permanent boost the IJ VP count while applying pressure on the Allies to reinforce Australia, while at the same time being perfectly placed to interdict supply lines into Oz from the West Coast. It requires significantly less investment that a continental invasion of India or Australia (and the subsequent reinforcements that are triggered for the Allies if such a venture is made).

This is all valid. It's the strategic VP's plus the loss of some of the Australian aircraft production that cannot be reversed.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 185
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 8/21/2021 7:29:16 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
31 DECEMBER 1941
TURN 25


I.NOPAC

Nothing new. First convoys arrive safely in Anchorage. Only one enemy LCU in Cold Bay.


II.CENPAC

A convoy with 47,000ton of SUPPLIES is reaching PH, from there the ships will be readdressed to their final destinations in the SOPAC.

Almost completed the unloading of the marine defense battalion in Johnston Island. Same goes for Christmas Island and Palmyra.

Pago Pago has a convoy with an infantry regiment sailing happily in its direction. I hope they'll make it.


III.SOPAC

Nothing new. KB keeps striking Australian industry.

A singole 60kg bomb lands on an Australian CL in Solomon Sea.

In two days, hopefully, some tanks will be unloaded in Suva. I am quite happy of the development there: AA, ART and now tanks.


PM is quite empty but I cannot really find a way to ship stuff there in face of strong opposition from Rabaul, which reaches AF level 6 today. I'm quite impressed by the amount of ENG he has brought in Rabaul right now. It's somewhat inconsistent with my perception of him striking deep SOUTH in NZ direction.
We'll see.
Also the lack of landings in Noumea while the KB is around are very much surprising me.

I might have mis-analysed the situation. I told Omar I expect a Perth+NZ pincer movement: it's true and it's part of some kind of psychowarfare I've embarked myself some time ago.



IV.DEI

Let's avoid the talk over the elephant in the room and let's start with good news.

My fighters go back to Singapore and smash enemy's bombers. 47 the Japanese losses for 1 ops on our side.
The action has in truth a more relevant target than shooting down some sallies: Singapore's fortifications are now back to level 2 in a single turn and I'm quite satistifed by this result.
On top of that, our defenders are doing quite well, with 740AV reached this turn after the all time low of 650AV after the Japanese river crossing.
Not that they will survive to any enemy's assault, but I hope to create some more troubles to the IJA.


The elephant in the room is the presence of many TFs with Java as probable destination.
A sub attack WEST of Singkawang has showed xAKs present in the convoys and therefore I believe it's not a feint.

My approach is fairly simple: I won't engage them right now and rather look for openings in the aftermath of their landings.


In line of principle, I have available the usual forces:
- 2xBB/BC
- 12xCA
- 6xCL
- 30xDD
It's a respectable force even if he probably has 6xBBs covering his landings. I'm not that sure on the ammo level of those BBs. It looks improbable they have replenished but it's likely that their engagement with the unlucky Marblehead's TF has left them enough to fight their way forward.

An interesting aspect of the current "crisis" is the fact that when he landed in Palembang I thought he was feinting to make a move in Timor area. Now, I am fearing it's a real feint.
The assault on Java is not consistent with the disposition of his troops. Nor it makes sense the fact that probably his BBs are low on ammo. And SigInt is telling me stuff has arrived today at Babeldaob.
On top of that, he wouldn't probably be able to establish a sufficiently strong bridgehead and defend it from my naval bombardments, should he land.
He hasn't shut down AFs in Java a part from a single Betty raid last turn on Batavia.

I don't know yet his operational habits and convinction, so I am not sure about his behaviours when I see his moves. I haven't a grip on his psychology yet, which in the current moves in the DEI doesn't help me at all. Also, I don't know how he sees me as a player and so how he's interpreting my posture. It might very well be that he has seen my Palembang blunder and now thinks he can easily draw me in a pitched battle at his conditions.

In a sentence: it looks quite strange.


At the bottom you find the situation.


In the meanwhile, I've landed a good hit on Miri's OIL with B17s based in Soerabaja. The Nate CAP could do little to stop my 4Es.

A lot of naval traffic in Babeldaob but no signs of allied advances. I am quite confident he wants to do a simultaneous move on Java and Timor, probably trying to exploit the absence of my CVs (back some hundred KMs to refit their airgroups and wait for the Saratoga coming in 8 days from Cape Town).

I decided to pull back my heavy units, putting them in a position in which they can go both to SOUTH-EAST (Timor/Darwin) and NORT-WEST (landing around Batavia).

In another world, my Philippino airforce gets badly damaged (but not destroyed...) trying to sink xAPs and xAKs near Atimonan. They were covered by lousy Nates, which proved nonetheless sufficient to stop most of my strafing runs.


V.CBI

A big mess in China as usual. He has a division in Ankang accordingly to my SigInt but not accordingly to my recon and bombing. Also, the SigInt pointed at coordinates rather than the location, which puzzles me further. Don't know if that's true then...

In any case, I've been unable to push back the poor Kyuko Naval Guards defending mountain passes. I'm inflicting 10 squads lost/disabled per-turn and receiving the same amount of casualties in return, so I believe they won't last long.

In Changsha sector, everything looks quite calm and I've taken the occasion to pull back some units for rest in Changsha proper.

Chinese 5th Corps is completely in Calcutta taking a good amount of replacements. That's a very positive news for Indian inhabitants.
I've Madras and Calcutta as main gathering points for my LCUs. Most of them are "healing" their disablements at a nice rate.

A British CV arrives in 3-4 days and it will help in establishing a solid defense in the area.

Finally, I've exhausted Cape Town SUPPLIES and a good chunk of its FUEL. In a dozen days the first atlantic convoy will be arrived and disbanded, so I'm not concerned at all.

Many shipments are being done toward Australia, which remains a sensitive point in my global positioning. With the approx. 240,000ton of SUPPLIES from Cape Town I've just sent, it should improve the situation there for the poor fellas in the sector.




The awful situation near Java:





Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 186
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 8/21/2021 9:28:07 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		I would use CS convoys for shipping supplies from the East Coast to Cape Town. You will need a large stockpile there for later use if not sooner.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 187
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/11/2021 3:21:05 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline 		After one month, I'm finally back.

Got an awful time at work, but we're back on track. We did 3 turns today (first day of my 'official' return).

Soon, the updates

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 188
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/13/2021 10:24:22 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
8 JANUARY 1942
TURN 33

I. NOPAC

Everything is quiet in the area since the initial invasions carried out by Omar. I don't plan any counter-attack in the short term, mostly due to the complete absence of assets to do so.


II. CENPAC

After the capture of Wake-Midway on 7th Dec and the expansion in Canton Island, there have been no signs of enemy activity.

Johnston Island, Palmyra and Christmas Island are being reinforced and supplied. It's not a big deal, but I hope to have a decent amount of troops in each so that I can make any landing attempt costly. Frankly, it doesn't look like he's gonna push there.

Since Canton Island, the easternmost base controlled by the Japanese in the area is surrounded by allied bases (Ellice Islands; Baker Island; etc), I might attempt a blitz over there soon.


Pago Pago is being reinforced as well and Suva has roughlt 210AV behind forts lvl3. Soon, one US Army regiment will be unloaded there to boost the defences a little bit.

Noumea is basically naked but should receive enough troops in the next couple of weeks. The forces there will amount to roughly 300AV.

Omar hasn't gone south of Shortlands for the time being: I suspect he's preparing to strike further south in the New Caledonia area without bothering too much with the various Tulagi/Guadalcanal/Luganville.

SigInt doesn't help too much, but there is heavy traffic detected at Truk.

Japanese forces have landed on th 6th of January in all the bases surrounding Port Moresby using FastTransportTFs of DDs. A group of Banshees has been placed in PM and they sink an enemy DD, something close to a miracle if we consider the average exp in NavB of 18. Not that bad after all.

Kido Butai has done its awful bombings on Sydney and now sailed north, in all likelihood to cover the landings in PNG area. I have lost track of it in the last turn, mostly due to the fact that I have evacuated all the planes from PM fearing naval bombardaments (which didn't happen).


Australia proper is starting to receive the first shipments of fuel and supplies. I should be able to bring 500k fuel and 500k supplies within the end of January, with more to come later. It's not a bad result, I dare to say.


IV. DEI

After the fall of Palembang and my mistake in the second turn of strikes over his forces there, everything is more quiet. Singapore fell some time ago and there was no real possibility of making it last longer. My forces in Java are somehow a deterrent to bold Japanese actions, I hope.

In the last couple of turns I've ambushed a group of Betty on Balikpapan (8-12 went down) but I got slaughtered on Soerabaja, where I tried to put a timid CAP against A6M2s from Palembang (14 hexes distance... I hoped for some better result). I lost 16 fighters to no apparent Japanese loss. Wonderful, eh?

On the positive side, I currently have 3 US CVs and 1 UK CV (plus the awful Hermes) in the Indian Ocean and their airgroups have been all replensihed of planes and "good" pilots. It's not that much, but still a decent force of around 320 embarked a/c covered by a plethora of surface forces.


Manila is being invested right now. There are 1250 scared Allied AVs in the city, currently facing around 1000 Japanese AVs. I think Omar will bring further reinforcements and massacre my poor fellas over there. Can't do much, sadly. In any case, the few remaining planes in the area are somehow making good ambushes every now and then, downing 5 enemy a/c in the last couple of turns. Nothing too special, but already something for those P-26s.


V. CBI

Rangoon has been reached by roughly 620 Japanese AV. I can muster around 550AV of inexperienced and poorly armed troops. I won't bet on their survival.

Calcutta has around 1,200AV and Madras a very good amount as well. Colombo is fairly empty (I count to block any move there with US CVs). The first few groups of Hurricane are reaching now the gathering area in Calcutta. They are still the -IIa, which is much inferior to my beloved -IIc model, but at least it's something.
An insane amount of USAAF groups will start arriving soon.

China is messed up as usual.

I reconquered Ankang and I am trying to even hold it. There are many IJA units roaming everywhere and I cannot really tell whether I'll be able to contain them on the crucial Ankang Road. Sligthly to the east, Sian is being by-passed by many units moving further north in Kungchan-Tienshui-Lanchow direction. I am letting Omar pass and strike to his flanks once he's committed a little bit more in the northern area.
The situation is very fluid and extremely concerning. I don't know what I'll be able to do. I just hope for the best.

In all this, I've been able to keep the vital Shangai-Peking-Hankow railway cut for most of the turns since the beginning of the match. I deem this a very relevant success.

IJAAF is not that active, but my Flying Tigers have done a very decent job so far: 64-24 K/D ratio including my ops/written offs (12 in A2A).

Changsha sector seems quiet. Apparently, also, Omar has stopped his very concerning offensive from Canton area, which is a relief.

Miracously, I've also blocked his modest offensive in Wenchow, which is still firmly in my hands.

Finally, I have been able to bring the first AT unit from India to China. 36x2pdr from Australia, which should help a little bit in stopping IJA tanks. I forgot to change the target and they're still prepared for... Broken Hill


VI. OTHER

As mentioned above, I'm quite satisfied by the flow of fuel/supplies to Australia. Cape Town has been emptied of fuel, but in two turns a convoy disbands and it will net me 18,000ton: enough for some time.

I still have no idea on Omar's intentions and I currently keep my initial idea of an offensive in Australia AND/OR New Zealand. I don't think I can do much more than reinforcing at least the first and praying for the latter. In general, Allied situation is still desperate basically everywhere and the next couple of months will be crucial in setting the course of the war for the next year or so.

My priority is to slow him down and, possibly, to make him react to some minor actions here and there. I don't think I can grab the initiative anywhere, but I'm confident I can somehow survive until the end of amphibious bonus, which is the deadline I look forward to.
My cards will start revealing after that time.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 189
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/13/2021 12:45:17 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Hermes could be used for ASW and NavS coverage for convoys from CT to Perth or Adelaide. Good for torpedoing raiders along the WC of Australia. Forces him to bring in a CVE or CVL if he wants to interdict there.

Forget using your Philippine fighters to fight his Zeros. Put them on Naval Strike at 100 or 1000 feet if they have bombs. If they get his merchantmen burning they often will sink. Loss of supply will also hurt his ability to roll over your troops.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 190
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/14/2021 4:36:55 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
09 JANUARY 1942
TURN 34

I. NOPAC

I started some recon over Cold Bay (IIRC) S-W of Kodiak. It's the easternmost Japanese base in the area and I might be able to retake it soon.


II. CENPAC

Nothing special or new. The dot W of Midway automatically switches side and I'm still reinforcing various bases in the area.

Soon, a good chunk of APDs will arrive from the West Coast and start ferrying some troops around quicker.


III. SOPAC

KB reappears on the radars NORTH of Rabaul. It's split in two, with what seems a CV separated from the bulk of the others. I think he'll use this CV to cover his landing in PM; 65th Brigade is apparently being shipped to Truk and I suspect they are going to land in PM soon. The only plausible alternative is Noumea, but I think he'd be a little bit too light.

I won't contest too much the move.


Further SOUTH, I've established a decent defense of both Suva and Noumea. Next step would ideally be Luganville, but it's not a priority.

I need more ENG, also.


IV. DEI

Omar bombs Soerabaja and sinks a couple of AMcs. More importantly, he puts many 250KG bombs on my 4 CLs in the harbor. They don't risk to sink and have only superficial damages.

In the meanwhile, however, I manage to evacuate a large convoy plenty of useful planes and unit fragments from the former Singapore's defenders. I'll ship those guys to Australia, where they'll have plenty of time, support and supplies to recuperate their strength.

Also, in Java I've somehow finished the FUEL. Sadly, I strongly doubt I will be able to evacuate any more SUPPLIES.

In Luzon I try a LowN bombing with my fighters but I lose 2 P-26s to Nates.


V. CBI

Burma apparently stable. Omar hasn't tried to assault Rangoon yet, probably understanding I have enough troops to resist (I suppose?).

In China I mess up a surprise attack on HK harbour with B-17 from Chungking. CAP and balloons kill two of them and damage others. Not a good result.

Near Sian I manage to intercept an enemy raid with a Flying Tigers' LRCAP and I destroy various Nates. Only one Sally is downed. No losses on my side but many fighters damaged and 1 pilot WIA.

I'm quite concerned by the situation in China, but there isn't much I can do right now. Sadly, my troops interrupting the vital Shangai-Peking-Hankow railway will be wiped out in less than a week and, at that point, Omar will gain even more mobility.

Finally, I strongly doubt I can hold the recaptured Ankang. Seems like he wants to go off-road SOUTH of it and move on Chungking's plateau. The move appears bizarre to me, but it's what I can infer from his troops movements. Sian front is stable, with IJA units by-passing it and moving further NORTH.

Changsha is not (yet) invested by IJA but I have no illusions about it.

IJAAF very moderate in its actions.


_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 191
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/14/2021 4:42:05 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Hermes could be used for ASW and NavS coverage for convoys from CT to Perth or Adelaide. Good for torpedoing raiders along the WC of Australia. Forces him to bring in a CVE or CVL if he wants to interdict there.

Forget using your Philippine fighters to fight his Zeros. Put them on Naval Strike at 100 or 1000 feet if they have bombs. If they get his merchantmen burning they often will sink. Loss of supply will also hurt his ability to roll over your troops.


He smashed my CAP on Soerabaja from Palembang. He sent two sweeps in two days and I hoped to catch his Zeroes tired and at maximum distance on the third. They slaugthered my fighters instead.


In Luzon I am facing mostly Nates and I tend to alternate periods of LowN and rest. Currently, however, I'm setting a leaking CAP from Clark Field to Manila in order to intercept his boming runs. He has many fighters in the area, but they're mostly Nates (there were a couple of dozens A6M2-Zeroes but he moved them to China).

My successes with LowN are basically zero, but my leaking CAPs make him bleed a little bit. Well, as much as P-26s can make an enemy bleed

What's more important is that it seems like he doesn't have enough troops to capture the whole real estate. In Manila I have 1,300AV vs 1,000AV. Supposedly, he has two more divisions coming, while I have 400 more AVs arriving as well. If he has one incoming division only, I should be able to hold. With two, everyone will retreat to Clark Field after we made him bleed a little bit.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 192
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/20/2021 12:27:37 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
10-13 JANUARY 1942
TURN 35-38


I. NOPAC

An xAKL is sunk by a Japanese sub off Victoria.


II. CENPAC

I somehow manage to finally reinforce Johnston Island, Palmyra and Christmas Island. I still obviously fear for them, but they should be relatively well defended right now.

Nothing major happening around.


III. SOPAC

Omar has detached the Shokaku (and probably a CVL) from KB and is sailing around New Caledonia. There are two TFs approaching from further NORTH. I think he's using another FastTransportTF to land a SNLF in Noumea. I have 50 frightened AVs in Noumea itself. Many reinforcements were approaching but they have been re-routed.
With 2-3 more turns, I would have been able to reinforce the base in a proper manner, but with only 50AV I fear the end will be quick.

On the positive side, Suva is well defended and supplied, something extremely useful should Noumea fall.



IV. DEI

In Luzon we're approaching the showdown. Omar has roughly 1,200AV in Manila vs my 1,400AV. We both have around 400AV SOUTH of Manila also.
He has a division SOUTH of the city and I have roughly 400AV SOUTH of the division SOUTH of the city. Even though tempting, I'll resist the idea of a sortie out of Manila in order to maul the lone IJA division: the defenders inside the city wouldn't hold.


Last turn I've sent a dozen B17 from Calcutta to Clark Field and bombed Miri. I encountered a bunch of Nates and did a single OIL hit. Not very sure of the effective damage to the wells since my recon has decided to enjoy beers and ladies rather than face the enemy.


The big news is however that he landed with 4 IJA division on Java. Kalidjati to be precise. No realistic defense of the island is possible and it will fall rather quickly. In my wildest dreams, his divisions will be bogged down there for 3 weeks in total.
I've evacuated ALL the FUEL and most of the SUPPLIES. Valuable air groups have also been shipped out some turn ago together with cadres of Malaya Army's units. Tomorrow or the day after, I'll ship away the two dutch big air bases with the last two cargoes present in the island. Provided Omar doesn't sink them.



V. CBI

Let's start with the "simple" Burma. Nothing serious happens in the sector and it looks like the Japanese forces won't assault Rangoon soon due to a lack of AV. A flying column of AA, inf and ARM is moving towards Magwe, which is already empty. They're currently in Tuongoo.


Now China.
China is sheer madness. I completely screwed it up initially and now I'm trying to fix it but it's quite late already.

There are billions of IJA penetrations and I'm barely holding a thin line on the mountains around Sian. Ankanag, retaken time ago, will fall and its defender will be slaugthered.

Sian proper is still firmly in my hands. A small counterattack NORTH of Sian managed to dislodge a tank unit from a mountain hex but hasn't been able to retake a base he captured some turns ago.
In the meanwhile, IJA troops keep pouring from the EAST, marching past Sian and taking position NORTH of it.
He's plenty of tanks and I don't have AT in Sian, also; it's a deficiency I'll hopefully solve in the very next couple of turns thanks to x36 Australian 2pdr coming from the deep Australian desert. They're now in Chunking and will be airlifted to Sian.
I have some AT guns in the Ankang sector, but I don't really believe they can make any difference: they should be massed, but I have too few AT units around to play with.

In Patung, dot N-W of Ichang, he has two divisions happily marching WEST. I plan to flank those fellas after they move a couple of hexes further W.

Changsha sector apparently calm (won't remain so for long I guess). The important base of Chengchow might be invested soon. I don't understand whether he's moving troops NORTH towards Patung or towards Chengchow. Too early to tell.
Changsha proper is decently defended and I suspect will be invested by minor forces soon.

Further SOUTH, Wenchow fell yesterday after a valid resistance. I could have invested more in the base, but I'm happy with the result, which entangled and damaged three IJA divisions.

In the deep SOUTH, I've launched an offensive around Canton but it's mostly smoke in the eyes. Omar is taking it very seriously, airlifting whoever can be airlifted in the sector.

Luckily enough, I'm still somehow contesting the air. Actually, I'm in relative air superiority in certain areas and holding quite well the blood-thirsty IJAAF.



VI. OTHER

Nothing relevant to mention.
It's still only JAN-42 and it's a long long way to the end of amph bonus, which should create the conditions for a slow down in Japanese operations.

Currently, I'm mostly trying to oblige him to come in forces when he pushes forward.

I've at my disposal 3 US CV + 1 UK CV in the WESTERN sector of the map and 1 US CV in the EASTERN. In 50 days circa (IIRC), another US CV will arrive, bringing the total up to 5.

In India the flow of reinforcements is finally taking place and there is even a small complement of fighter groups.

Australia, if invaded, would probably be lost a part from the major x4 urban hexes. Not enough troops reached it yet.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 193
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/21/2021 1:30:50 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
14 JANUARY 1942
TURN 39

I. NOPAC

Nothing new to report.


II. CENPAC

I have sent a decoy AVP NORTH of PH towards Midway and back. Omar bombs with a couple of Mavis an empty dot in which he suspected I disbanded the AVP.
Therefore, apparently there are no Betty/Nell on Midway.


III. SOPAC

The AirCombatTF in New Caledonia area goes SOUTH of Noumea. The unidentified TF NORTH of New Caledonia is instead approaching Koumac, or so it seems. It's probably a FastTransportTF carrying a small invasion force for Noumea.
Noumea which has 52AV and cannot resist even the slightest offensive.


IV. DEI

While the landing on Java continue, Omar launches a deliberate in Manila.

Odds very decent for the defenders (1:5) but roughly the same losses in terms of infantry destryoed/disabled. In the skies a dozen allied planes manages to down a couple of Nates and 4 Lilies. Not that bad.


V. CBI

Surprisingly, Tuongoo resists the first Japanese deliberate. Not that I have any kind of hope or interest in holding it.

Rangoon stil firmly in Allied hands.

China is a mess as usual. Many victims everywhere and it seems I will lose it rather quickly.

India is doing remarkably well in its buildup. I am quite satisfied. Personally, I have the feeling of a Celyon invasion for various reasons.
Many troops are arriving in India on a regular basis and the chinese corps airlifted from China are on their way to full strength (a very long way actually). Calcutta is reasonably defended and same with other major locations such as Madras. Celyon, evacuated at the beginning of the war and with a token 300AV in total, might very well be reinforced soon in order to present a higher degree of resistance, should Omar land there.

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.


_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 194
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/22/2021 1:49:17 AM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.



Don't beat yourself up too much. Losing China has been de rigueur for the Allies in competitive games for quite some time now.

It's a big bonus to Japan, but far from fatal for the Allies. You'll see more and bigger LCU's, especially in the Pacific and it's a windfall for the IJA in terms of planes and aviation support.

That said, it gives the IJN absolutely zero ships, and this game is predominantly a naval game!

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 195
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/22/2021 12:15:19 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
15-16 JANUARY 1942
TURN 40-41

I.NOPAC

Nothing happens.

II.CENPAC

I somehow manage to bring roughly 10 APDs in PH and I keep shipping troops in advanced positions. PH itself is well defended.


III.SOPAC

I miss the invasion forces with my light SCTFs and one of the CVs sinks a kiwi CL in response. A random DD is also hit and sinks miserably.

On the 16th, Omar lands an Infantry Regiment and the 65th Brigade in La Foa, dot NORTH of Noumea. I started evacuating the few units present in Noumea proper using catalinas.
Sadly, I can't oppose anything to him there: I hadn't enough time to ship in sufficient reinforcements.

A couple of US Army regiments will start unloading tomorrow in Melbourne, while some 200 odd australian AVs are being unloaded in NZ, for which security I do fear. I was tempted to redirect the two US Army to NZ but I guess I won't. There isn't much I can do over there in case he wants to do a proper invasion and the forces already present will at least discourage any smaller attack.

Suva is well defended with circa 350AV behind forts lvl3 (soon 4) and sufficient supplies. This is important, since I desperately need to hold the area in order to neutralize Japanese move in Noumea: with his eastern flank occupied by consistent forces, the defense of Noumea won't be easy for him.

Forces in Australia are concentrated on the magic triangle Brisbane-Sidney-Melbourne and they do amount to roughly 2,700AV. I don't care at all of the Townsville area.

Perth's security is a problem, however. I don't know how to fix that, also, since I believe the place is impossible to hold against a determined Japanese push. In line of principle, I can hope to hold it with the fleet however.


IV.DEI

IJA troops are everywhere on Java, whose fall is waited in few days. Batavia can't resist this amount of IJA AVs, let alone Soerabaja. I'll do my best to gain some days here and there.
After the fall of Java, I won't be able to use the Indian Ocean direct route between Australia and India.

Manila holds and Omar is bringing in further reinforcements. The 5th Infantry Division is headed to Batangs, SOUTH of Manila, and various tank units to Legaspi.

In all likelihood, he will move on Timor or Darwin tomorrow: there is a good chunk of IJN shipping in Ambon and the KB appeared SOUTH of Kendari.

KB minus two CVs and not one as initially thought. As far as I can tell, he detached both the Shokaku-Class in the SoPac and he's using the remaining 4 CVs in the DEI. Initially I had the impression he had detached the Shokaku AND a CVL, but now I tend to think he detached the class altogether and I simply mistook one of the two CVs for a CVL.
The SigInt has been clear with "Shokaku call sign...".


V.CBI

The horror as usual. His forces march everywhere and there is little to nothing I can do in China for the time being.

In Burma, he captured Tuongoo and I think he's trying to surround completely Rangoon before starting the deliberate attacks.

I start to have a decent airforce in the sector, with 60 odd Hurricanes and roughly 50 P40s. 75 P39 Aircobra are arriving soon from Cape Town.

The whole allied fleet is currently in the area refuelling and repairing some points of their damages. I am trying to leverage the fact his divisions are busy in Java to refurbish my fleet and make it ready for the next phase. The appearance of KB SOUTH of Kendari highlights a probable operations either against India or against Perth.

My current vision is to refurbish the fleet in Celyon and then move SOUTH towards India, trying to exploit the NORTH-SOUTH sea route in the Indian Ocean until it is open. In the meanwhile, I will reinforce Celyon with ground units and hope for the best.
Rationale being that Perth is basically impossible to defend on the land, while Celyon can be defended well enough to require a major Japanese effort.

Losing Perth wouldn't be a disaster per-se, but the loss of Noumea and the current precarious situation in the SOPAC makes me fear for the route to Australia.


VI.OTHER

As mentioned above, I fear for a major Japanese effort against Australia. I have various signs pointing at a move on Celyon, but I still think it's not where the full might of the Empire will fall upon.
Australia has to be held at all costs and I currently need to secure a very big area of the map.

NZ would be a bizarre move from his side and I'm probably fearing it too much, influenced by my other game where I'm going to take it in few turns. However, it's a possibility which shouldn't be discarded.

Currently, my efforts will point to Suva and the bases EAST of it in order to create a solid area from which to flank and by-pass Noumea. If Omar moves to NZ, the relevance of Suva should even be higher, given that a move on Noumea's flank can cut him off in NZ itself.
On top of that, Australia should be relatively self-sufficient for quite a while. Once the convoys approaching it will have unloaded (last week of JAN-42 at latest), I'll have +500k ton of each FUEL and SUPPLIES and I deem it sufficient for a while.

I am pondering on the opportunity of bringing to Australia the 5th Chinese Corps, which is currently in Calcutta and can be brought there in relatively few turns using fast APs. It has only 500AV worth of squads, but it's cheap blood for an area which needs it. It would be substituted in Calcutta by another Chinese Corps which is currently being airlifted out of China.

Food for thought

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 196
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/22/2021 12:36:06 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.



Don't beat yourself up too much. Losing China has been de rigueur for the Allies in competitive games for quite some time now.

It's a big bonus to Japan, but far from fatal for the Allies. You'll see more and bigger LCU's, especially in the Pacific and it's a windfall for the IJA in terms of planes and aviation support.

That said, it gives the IJN absolutely zero ships, and this game is predominantly a naval game!



mind_messing, you're too kind. I screwed up China due to my complacency and total disregard for the basic rules of warfare.

Frankly, it's a theater of operations I have never lost on either side and I played it in a reckless and over-confident manner.


Now, not everything is lost and I might even be able to hold Chugking and turn the situation in a stalemate, but I highly doubt so.

I have roughly 3,000AV moving to reinforce CK in addition to the troops already there, so I can try to do something to keep the boat somehow afloat for a little bit more.



The troops he can free from China are a problem if he can start taking them from the theater before the other ones are stabilized. I need to hold for some more months in China for him to leave most if not all the China Command HQ troops there.
Planes are another issue, but he can potentially take them out of China rather quickly anyway.
Ships, as mentioned, aren't involved.
Supplies are, however, and that's the big gain for him. China is very supply-intensive.


Broadly speaking, what I can hope now is to hold CK for a while and reach some kind of stalemate with his troops pushed too much forward with only minor supply routes available.

I doubt he can push enough supplies through the routes he currently controls, and this is my only real hope.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 197
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/22/2021 3:47:55 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline 		We're in mid-January 1942.

I still have 70 circa of amph bonus and 40 turns have passed.


VP-wise we're 11,718 : 9,154 or a ratio of 1.28:1 in his favour.

The situation is obviously dire and I will need to make great efforts in order to stem the Japanese forces.

In line of principle, I count on Java falling by the end of January and Luzon in mid-February at earliest.

This leaves 4 IJA divisions (plus other sparse forces) in Java and with long time to strike somewhere else.

The options are rather many, but I see as very likely a push in Australia or, god forbids, NZ.

Let's analyse the first option, Australia.

If he smashes Java by the 01/02/1942, he's has more than enough time to use those forces for a landing on either the eastern or the western coast.

The western coast is the big issue, given the fact that I deem Perth impossible to defend properly against a convinced Japanese effort. Moreover, his supply routes would be relatively short and mine sub-optimal.
I am leaning toward leaving him Perth, which is not so easy to defend for him in the mid-term.
This brings us to the key area of eastern Australia, where I need to create a credible defensive position. I currently have roughly 2,500AV in the area, plus 200AV further north. It's not an awfully bad force and it's being bolstered by various US Army reinforcements.

Holding tight both eastern Australia and the Suva area would leave me ample time to replenish my depleted forces and counterattack relatively early without too many risks.

This, obviously, has two orders of consequences:
A) Gulf of Bengal is left to its own devices and I'll have to just hope for the best over there
B) Perth wouldn't be left in allied hands for long in case of a move against Australia.

I'm not over concerned about a possible invasion of India, where I think I can fight effectively and delay him enough.

I'm more concerned by a major effort in eastern Australia, where I can somehow fight back but I am at huge risk of losing billions of VPs through strategic bombing.
In order to avoid strat bombing, I need to hold Brisbane area. The base itself is not defensible (plain terrain) and I don't have enough forces to prevent those forces from being cut off in case he decides to land further south.


In the meanwhile, I must bring forward the units necessary for my own offensives and it takes time. My main targets are the New Hebrides (still in my hands but empty) and Midway. I suspect recapturing Canton Island would be a very interesting move, but I deem it out of my possibilities for quite a while.


On top of that, on 07/03/1942 arrives the Hornet, then on the 10/03/1942 the Formidable.
They are followed by the Illustrious on the 24/04/1942 and by the Wasp on 16/06/1942.

This, leaves me with a credible force of 6 USN CVs and 3 RN CVs by the end of June 1942.

I won't be able to face the KB, but I'll definitely be able to keep it at bay. Same goes with the LBA, which will see drastical improvements in terms of available matériel and pilot quality.


For the time being, we try to survive the day and make the amphibious bonus expire. Then, we see.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 198
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/22/2021 3:48:13 PM   
mind_messing

 

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.



Don't beat yourself up too much. Losing China has been de rigueur for the Allies in competitive games for quite some time now.

It's a big bonus to Japan, but far from fatal for the Allies. You'll see more and bigger LCU's, especially in the Pacific and it's a windfall for the IJA in terms of planes and aviation support.

That said, it gives the IJN absolutely zero ships, and this game is predominantly a naval game!



The troops he can free from China are a problem if he can start taking them from the theater before the other ones are stabilized. I need to hold for some more months in China for him to leave most if not all the China Command HQ troops there.



You're only likely to see a big change in Burma, Thailand and Malaya for ground units. The VP bottleneck limits how many divisions can be bought out and how quickly.

Different dynamic if the IJ player deliberately looks to buy out units weakened by combat on the cheap to rebuild, however...

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 199
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/22/2021 3:53:59 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.



Don't beat yourself up too much. Losing China has been de rigueur for the Allies in competitive games for quite some time now.

It's a big bonus to Japan, but far from fatal for the Allies. You'll see more and bigger LCU's, especially in the Pacific and it's a windfall for the IJA in terms of planes and aviation support.

That said, it gives the IJN absolutely zero ships, and this game is predominantly a naval game!



The troops he can free from China are a problem if he can start taking them from the theater before the other ones are stabilized. I need to hold for some more months in China for him to leave most if not all the China Command HQ troops there.



You're only likely to see a big change in Burma, Thailand and Malaya for ground units. The VP bottleneck limits how many divisions can be bought out and how quickly.

Different dynamic if the IJ player deliberately looks to buy out units weakened by combat on the cheap to rebuild, however...




We allow to buy out units through the 20th Army command, which makes them 25% of the original "price".


This, makes buying out a division per week quite feasible. Not to speak about the plethora of Type-C division which will arrive over the course of 1942.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 200
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/22/2021 7:07:53 PM   
castor troy


Posts: 14330
Joined: 8/23/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline 		If you lose China, he can bring some 5000 assault value to other theatres. Big deal.

_____________________________


(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 201
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/23/2021 4:18:34 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

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Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
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17-18 JANUARY 1942
TURN 42-43

I.NOPAC

Everything is calm over here.


II.CENPAC

Nothing new.


III.SOPAC

IJN TFs remained one hex S-W of Noumea, probably due to a refuel.

They have been attacked multiple times by my subs but no torpedo exploded. I have a dozen subs around them, one of them HAS to be lucky sooner or later...

La Foa, dot NORTH-WEST of Noumea, falls to over 350AV. Nothing I can do to save the poor defenders still in Noumea.


IV.DEI

Surprisingly, a calm turn. IJA marches into Batavia and gets ready to kill everyone there, while KB sails SOUTH of Java and sinks three xAKLs which have left Java a little bit too late.

I have tried another CAP trap like a couple of turns ago but Omar doesn't make his bombers fly in dangerous areas. Those 8 Betties killed had been encouraging but he's now decided to fly them only if heavy escorts are available.

Near Manila, I plant a couple of bombs in a DD with the few remaining fighters available.


V.CBI

Burma is calm.

India is somehow safe.

China is sheer madness as usual.

On the 17th my Chinese airforce is heavily engaged by large groups of A6M2s brougth to the theater to deal with my efforts in the air and I lose something like 20 fighters for a couple of Zekes. Not a good result.

In the meanwhile, on the 18th I manage to cross the river NORTH-EAST of Sian and I find mysefl in an awfully bloody battle, which ends in a draw:
Ground combat at 84,40 (near Sian)
Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 64778 troops, 292 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2368
Defending force 32050 troops, 237 guns, 775 vehicles, Assault Value = 1258

Allied adjusted assault: 799
Japanese adjusted defense: 767
Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender:
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3223 casualties reported
Squads: 12 destroyed, 245 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 26 (2 destroyed, 24 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3605 casualties reported
Squads: 134 destroyed, 157 disabled
Non Combat: 61 destroyed, 48 disabled
Engineers: 11 destroyed, 20 disabled

Assaulting units:
5th New Chinese Corps
9th Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
90th Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
80th Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
93rd Chinese Corps
40th Chinese Corps
8th New Chinese Corps
5th War Area
31st Group Army
Red Chinese Army
22nd Group Army
15th Group Army
34th Group Army

Defending units:
36th Division
8th Recon Regiment
23rd Tank Regiment
26th Division
10th Tank Regiment
5th Tank Regiment
11th Tank Regiment
1st Army

Honestly, I don't know how to interpret this battle, which has however damaged the main IJA column EAST of Sian.


This is the map of the area:





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by ITAKLinus -- 10/23/2021 4:19:48 PM >

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to castor troy)
Post #: 202
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/26/2021 12:34:39 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
19-20 JANUARY 1942
TURN 44-45


I.NOPAC

Nothing happens and bad wheather prevents my NavS/Recon missions. I definitely need to solve the "Midway-gap" so that I can have a decent NavS between Aleutinians and Hawaii.

I highly doubt I can launch any offensive in the NOPAC any time soon.


II.CENPAC

A large convoy from Australia to SF reports a very concerning message: "TF 205 sights Japanese Fighter Bomber at 207,94 near San Francisco".
DL 9/9, hence I suspect it's a light carrier in some kind of anti-shipping missions. I still hope the DL is due to the FP embarked in the two IJN ACMs which are in the SOPAC at 7th DEC and which I've not spotted so far.

A carrier is 30hex from the convoy, after a nice refuel in PH; I will try to have a look: full speed next turn and then I roam around. If it's a CVL, I should be able to sink it with my USN CV.


III.SOPAC

IJA troops reach Noumea from La Foa and tomorrow the base will fall. No signs of enemy CVs and I have the awkward feeling they headed SOUTH-EAST, somehow avoiding my NavS chain. Few ships in Raoul Island area haven't been spotted or attacked, however.

Honestly, I hope the two Shokaku-Class have gone back NORTH after the landing in New Caledonia, so that I can resume naval traffic in the area.
Two very large convoys of TKs (with well over 250,000ton of FUEL) are SOUTH of NZ and I no longer fear for them. Various Australian reinforcements have been disembarked in NZ: they were meant for Noumea but Omar landed just few days before their arrival and I redirected the convoys in NZ. My intention is to use these small units to give garrison to various islands in Fiji area, where I need to get some more defences.

In a couple of days, a catalina base in Raoul Island will be set. Norfolk Island will follow shortly after. So far, I still have a couple of AVPs in Salomon Islands and around Luganville, therefore my NavS shouldn't be that bad. Not that I can do much even if I spot the enemy coming, but it's good to have the opportunity to strike in case he commits a mistake.
So far, his southernmost landing a part from Noumea is Tulagi. He hasn't touched the Ellice Islands either after he captured Canton Island.
Apparently, he has ENG in Tabiteuea, which I believe he will develop in the major forward base for the area together with Noumea.


III.DEI

Kido Butai heads toward Ambon, a clear sign he's planning to escort with heavy assets the invasion force assembled there. I bet on Darwin, since I don't see the need of such a heavy escort for Timor, but we'll see.

In Java things are going poorly and he has more than the 4 infantry divisions initially spotted. Not much the Dutch forces can do against such a display of strength.


Funnily enough, I have completed the evacuation of NZ/Australian/British airforce from Malaya and now they're safely in Australia, boosting the poor fighter defence of the sector.

Also two groups of Banshees and three of Vildebeasts have been brought back. Remarkably, the fragments of the two Indian Divisions which begin the game in Malaya have landed yesterday in Geraldton and are headed toward Sydney, where they will have a good R&R period. They have 4AV in two divisions, so they won't be useful for a very long time.
However, I am somehow receiving a good amount of IndInfantry Squads and I believe I can make a couple of brigades out of those divisions. In terms of other devices, I am not faring bad with the Brits (surprisingly!) and my aim is to have those two division well-equipped in terms of ART and act together with Australian divisions, which, in case, would put the blood.


In Mindanao the front is static, but I believe Omar will land tomorrow in Zamboanga or how it is called. Not a big deal for me. In Luzon, instead, I somehow managed to delay for another day the landing of the 5th Infantry Division SOUTH of Manila using a bunch of PT boats. I suspect he will land tomorrow and khalas.
Manila&co are doomed, but I need them to hold for a little bit longer and to inflict the maximum amount of casualties to IJA infantry divisions, so to slow down their re-deployment after the fall of Philippines.

IV.CCBI

In China is a massacre. I launched a second deliberate NORTH of Sian and I got repulsed with heavy casualties (more or less equal to IJA however). On the 20th, Omar launched an armoured assault to the troops NORTH-EAST of Sian and he inflicted heavy casualties; I have 18 2pdr arriving from Sian, however.

In the skies, he's brought many (MANY) bombers and a group of A6M2, which is still completely out of reach for my fighters. I try to do what I can to spread his forces and sting him here and there, but more than few ambushes on some random unescorted 1Es is not happening.

The offensive from Patung toward the hexes SOUTH of Chungking is composed apparently of three and not two divisions as initially thought. There is an infantry division in the MTN hex EAST of Patung. He has brought forward a division, while another is guarding its back. I have few AVs trying to contest his move and roughly 1,000AV threatening to cut his divisions off from the SOUTH. I'll see how it develops in the very next few turns.


India is doing fairly well and I'm reinforcing it enough to consider it "challenging" to attack. I completed yesterday the airlift of the second Chinese Corps and I'll start soon the airlifting of the third. It's not a big deal, but over time these troops will be very useful.
I don't have enough troops to stop a bold IJA move in the sector, but I have more than enough to slow him down allowing reinforcements to come from all over the free world.

Burma is doing well. I don't grasp why he's waiting to launch a systematic offensive on Rangoon: he went super big on Java and could have easily spared enough troops to crush both Java and Rangoon easily at the same time. Two AA LCUs and two ARM LCUs are reaching China soon, but the ARM units are fairly weak and will need to upgrade to the stuarts (IIRC) once they reach Chungking.


V.OTHER

I think his move on Java with massive quantities of matériel is indicative of a subsequent offensive in the WESTERN part of the map.

There are fundamentally two possibilities: either he goes for Celyon/India or he goes for Perth. I tend to suspect the latter, even if the fact he is delaying any move against Rangoon makes me think.
Perth itself is impossible to be held, especially if he brings the big hammer (KB + 5 IJA Divisions and all the fancy supports).

At the beginning of the game, I made some kind of gamble and sent basically every ship available in India&co to Australia, with the idea of delivering what I could ship from Cape Town and India and then move toward US to join the US-Australia convoys. If he captures Perth, at least, I should have most of my shipping in the right position.

My issue is if he finds a way to cut Australia from the EASTERN side. At that point, it's a big problem. Hence, I definitely need to hold Fiji Islands so that I can threat his EASTERN flank in case he moves on NZ.



Is there something I am missing regarding the US-Australia route or is my plan to hold Fiji area (including Pago Pago) sufficiently sound?
Considering that I'm 100% a Japanese player, I am not that sure on how to treat the sector from the allied perspective. I just know that any IJN offensive in the area is an extreme logistical burden for IJN, especially if the allies don't panic and keep an alive threat in the area, obliging the IJN to be always present in forces, thus consuming billions of tons of FUEL.

Probably, I should defend more the Line Islands as well in this logic, but I deem the Fiji+PagoPago area as decisive.

On top of that, I definitely need to create a credible defensive position in Brisbane-Towoomba area, so that I can avoid most of IJAAF/IJNAF strategic bombing should he land in Australia above the reinforcement line. It's urgent, but I don't have the troops to defend the area properly; they'll be available in roughly a month ( )

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 203
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/26/2021 4:57:15 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

If you lose China, he can bring some 5000 assault value to other theatres. Big deal.


That depends significantly on the context. Continental campaign in India or Oz? That's a big deal. A strictly naval affair in the Pacific? Significantly less of a problem. Japan just doesn't have the sealift capacity to capitalise on the extra troops fully after the amphib bonus ends.



quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus



We allow to buy out units through the 20th Army command, which makes them 25% of the original "price".


This, makes buying out a division per week quite feasible. Not to speak about the plethora of Type-C division which will arrive over the course of 1942.



The comfort for you is that there's a fairly small number of areas where those divisions can be properly deployed, and the vast majority of those are west of Truk.

All those divisions are a nightmare to supply outside of Japan - combined with fort/airbase construction, the supply cost kicks up in a big way.

The Type C's are good news for Japan, but don't get too downhearted by them. All it means is that you're not likely to be able to get away with regimental sized landings going forward. Everything has to be done in full divisional level. That's manageable, but it needs the kitchen sink in terms of carrier and air support.

(in reply to castor troy)
Post #: 204
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/26/2021 5:52:32 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

If you lose China, he can bring some 5000 assault value to other theatres. Big deal.


That depends significantly on the context. Continental campaign in India or Oz? That's a big deal. A strictly naval affair in the Pacific? Significantly less of a problem. Japan just doesn't have the sealift capacity to capitalise on the extra troops fully after the amphib bonus ends.



quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus



We allow to buy out units through the 20th Army command, which makes them 25% of the original "price".


This, makes buying out a division per week quite feasible. Not to speak about the plethora of Type-C division which will arrive over the course of 1942.



The comfort for you is that there's a fairly small number of areas where those divisions can be properly deployed, and the vast majority of those are west of Truk.

All those divisions are a nightmare to supply outside of Japan - combined with fort/airbase construction, the supply cost kicks up in a big way.

The Type C's are good news for Japan, but don't get too downhearted by them. All it means is that you're not likely to be able to get away with regimental sized landings going forward. Everything has to be done in full divisional level. That's manageable, but it needs the kitchen sink in terms of carrier and air support.




My fear is a continental campaign in Australia; hence, the need to keep those troops blocked in China as long as possible so that I can "fix" Australia.


Type-C are very good divisions for Japan because of their aviotransportability, if that's a word in English. They melt against Allied divisions, but, as you said, I'd have to forget regimental landings for quite a long time.

In any case, it's fine as long as I hold India-NZ-Australia. I am afraid of IJA campaign in one of these three, since it would put at stake a Japanese autovictory at the end of '42.



_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 205
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/27/2021 10:41:13 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
21 JANUARY 1942
TURN 46

I.NOPAC

I send a small ENG unit to Kodiak: they'll help building the infrastructures there for a while and then move to some dot nearby.


II.CENPAC

The fear for my convoys SOUTH of SF fails to materialize. I will escort them to the proximity of SF with a carrier in any case: we're talking about 200 ships, most of them of high quality.

Christmas Island finally has completely received the regiment from PH and now boasts roughly 150AV. Not so much, I know, but it's all I can do right now.


III.SOPAC

Here is the great news.

Noumea falls at the first assault and that's quite understandable.

But Omar sends his 2 Shokaku-Class carriers through the Torres Strait and they send a random naval strike on a small xAKL unloading at PM.
The xAKL had almost finished to unload few days ago and I had sent her back to Townsville with 120 supplies still on board. Yesterday, however, I had the idea of sending her randomly to PM in order to ambush the Betty/Nell group from Rabaul, hoping Omar wouldn't expect such a move.
Instead, those IJN bombers I was seeking don't fly... The embarked groups of the two Shokaku-Class do.
I have rougly 75 P40Es with awful pilots and their mission was meant to be some kind of live training against unescorted fragile IJN bombers. They fight very bravely, helped by sheer numbers and at the end of the day I lose 15 P40e against 40 enemy planes circa. Most importantly, many Kates (17 apparently!) and Vals are killed. A6M2s are always painful and the escort fought back viciously.

In any case, that's good. I found again the IJN CVs after a turn of panic and I killed many of their pilots.


III.DEI

The two Shokaku-Class will probably join their fellas in Ambon and do some kind of operation in the DEI. I see a great chunk of enemy TFs moving all around and I do suspect Omar is gathering his regiments scattered around for a major assault on some allied target.

Against all the might of the IJN I can oppose 2xCL+2xDD in Darwin and 3xCL in Perth. Not that bad


The situation in Sian and in Luzon has drawn Omar's attention and I decided for a sneaky attack on Palembang. I failed. I found indeed no A6M2 in CAP and just a modest bunch of Oscars but most of my bombers don't fly and when they do they don't hit anything. Very sad. The idea was good, however, I might try to propose it again soon.
At Soerabaja, a mega sweep of A6M2 Zeroes destroyed what I pretended to be some form of CAP and I lose 7 Dutch fighters for no japanese plane.

In the Philippines, Omar makes a small landing in Zamboanga as forecasted and lands the 5th Infantry Division in Luzon. Not much I can do.


IV.CBI

I think I will be able to bring 2xAA+2xARM in China from Burma quite soon and that's positive.

A random bunch of bombers moved to the besieged Rangoon and made a nice strike on Bangkok, where I sunk 4 ACMs. Not a big deal, but I hope he will feel compelled to put some CAP there.

India receives more reinforcements.

China is a pain. Near Sian, IJA launches a second deliberate with its troops and I suffer once again heavy losses. SOUTH of the city, I probably have enough AVs to block him in bad terrain (362AV for the IJA and 241AV for me in WR terrain; he has two depleted IndMixedBrigades).

SOUTH of Chungking, he launches a probatory bombardament on my troops.

Massive bombardaments NORTH-EAST of Sian. A6M2s massed for sweeping and I can't contest.


V.OTHER

It seems fairly obvious that he wants to close Java and Luzon campaigns very quickly and probably run a bunch of secondary operations in the meanwhile.

DEI area is busy of ships moving everywhere and the logical conclusion is that he is embarking the troops which did minor landings in the last month.

I won't contest his moves, mostly because I don't have assets to bring into the battle right now. I believe the two most probable moves, as stated many times, are either Perth or Celyon.
In both cases, I won't move against the complete KB, but rather against his weak spots somewhere else.

Remarkably, it looks like the route to Australia is safe for the time being and my fear of a raid from his Shokaku-Class carriers was just a fear. That's extremely important, since I should be able to bring a very large set of reinforcements to Australia in the next month.
Already now, the first troops are arriving and together with them FUEL and SUPPLIES in good quantities. My aim is to have enough stuff to survive until I do reopen the route.

Fiji Islands are being reinforced and same for Norfolk Island and Raoul Island, SOUTH of Noumea: these two islands will give early warning in case he randomly sends raiders.


Burma won't be reinforced, even if I have given more than a thought to the idea. Currently, the focus is on putting my troops in India into fighting condition. I have many AVs of relatively poor troops, but they'll be soon boosted by USArmy fellas coming to Cape Town.

In this spirit, I will probably reinforce Celyon soon. I think I can create a decent defense over there. Addu&co should be reinforced as well, now I have to look who is available, but my intention is to put there a couple of Ghurkas LCUs which are now in Calcutta. 39AV won't do much, but I can't spare much more right now.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 206
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/28/2021 11:36:52 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
22-23 JANUARY 1942
TURN 47-48



I.NOPAC

Nothing new.


II.CENPAC

IJN subs are still around PH but I managed to move in a very large convoy plenty of troops. They will be embarked on other ships and re-routed to their final destinations.


III.SOPAC

While the 2 Shokaku-Class carriers leave through Torres Strait in direction of the DEI, my DDs and CLs retake the initiative in the SOPAC. Omar has a couple of TFs in Noumea and I would like to smash them, even if currently I do lack the naval strength to do so.

More reinforcements land in Suva, which is now decently defended.


IV.DEI

The usual massacre. Batavia hold two days in a row to overwhelming IJA forces but I think the defenders won't see the day after tomorrow.

IJA losses not very high, also.

A base SOUTH of Medan falls after a FastTransportTF has landed some IJA troops.

Manila is too much pressured and I will have to leave for Clark Field. I let him make his moves SOUTH of Manila and then, once he reaches the city, I move to Clark Field.

Kido Butai moving "west" and currently SOUTH of Kendari.

Many ships moving everywhere in bases around Borneo.


V.CBI

On the 23rd of January Omar launches a deliberate in Rangoon. Forts lowered to level 2 and he has 1,700 casualties, mostly disablements. My casualties are far less.

In India business as usual.

In China, he launches two attacks in two days on my stack NORTH-EAST of Sian and I lose a grand total of roughly 6,000 men. Plus all the ones killed by constant and huge airstrikes.
NORTH of Ankang, however, I manage to block the 27th Division; 35th Division and 32nd/A Division inflicting them heavy casualties. Over 4,000 IJA casualties against 1,000 chinese. He has mostly disablements but it's nevertheless a Chinese victory:
Japanese ground losses:
4007 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 491 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 38 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 62 disabled
Guns lost 40 (1 destroyed, 39 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
1195 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 119 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 25 (2 destroyed, 23 disabled)


What's important, however, is that I managed to bring heavy reinforcements to Chungking and to block the road coming from Patung. I will probably employ there my only Cavarly Corps which has upgraded his TOE and has the 105mm Howitzers. Also a couple of 82mm Mortars batteries will probably go there and be ready to reinforce Chungking should Omar launch an offensive straight into the city.

Changsha sector is calm.




_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 207
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/28/2021 3:56:14 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
24 JANUARY 1942
TURN 49


I.NOPAC

Nothing happens.


II.CENPAC

The very important convoy plenty of goodies arrives in PH and unloads everything. I will send basically all the AAs from PH to Australia in order to have some kind of insurance against Omar's passion for strategic bombing on poor Australian households.

I have also the big decision on how to spend my PPs. I think I will buy the third regiment of the Americal Division and send the entire division in the SOPAC. It's both strategically sound and historically appropriate. Queen Elizabeth and other fast APs can take care of a smooth run from SF to SOPAC.


III.SOPAC

I launch a massive naval offensive in the SOPAC. Well, "massive" is a very big word... I simply flooded the entire area between Rabaul and Noumea with small TFs of DDs, in order to slow down IJN landings in the Solomon Island chain.
So far, I engaged the APD Shimakaze only and I have not even been able to sink it (2 shell hits and heavy fires, 120 japanese dead).

I have however avoided the invasion of the precious Ontong Java, which was a Catalina secret base; this, allowed me to save those catalinas. I will set up another base further SOUTH, since Ontong Java is no longer safe.

There are two large TFs coming from Noumea and they are the ships which carried the invasion force over there. There is one TF of mostly xAK/xAPs covered by a CA TF.

My plan is to intercept it and engage it multiple times with small TFs before trying a daylight engagement with a couple of CAs. Hopefully, he will have finished the ammo by the time I do engage him. Let's see how it turns out. Apparently, there are fast xAKs and I want them sunk.

See image below to get an idea of the opportunities arising in the SOPAC

IV.DEI

Batavia falls at the third day of IJA assaults. I lost track of the KB, which was SOUTH of Kendari precisely yesterday. A random AVP engages the Shokaku-Class CVs TF in the Torres Strait but nothing happens.
Yesterday, I had bad luck when a USN sub launched 4 torpedoes at the Soryu and missed her. However, I flooded the area with SS and some of them will be lucky sooner or later.

Soerabaja is doomed and will fall in a week time.

Timor is still in my hands and through it I evacuated most of the airforce from DEI.

In Luzon, Manila and Clark Field get bombed daily and I cannot stop it. I pulled out a good chunk of decent pilots from the fighter groups in the Philippines. Actually, my leading ace with 8 kills is a P40E pilot from Clark Field.


V.CBI

Near Sian is a massacre. I managed to bring two dozens 2pdr AT guns N-E of Sian but they seem to have zero effects on IJA tanks.

After the setback NORTH of Ankang, Omar is withdrawing his units, recognizing the difficulty of dislodging my 650AV on the mountains.

SOUTH of Chungking, thousands of AVs are moving toward the city to participate in its defense. I am quite positive on the resistance of my units which are blocking the road of IJA divisions coming from Patung also. We'll see how it develops.

Near Wenchow, he withdrew his men from the contested hex. Now they're back into the city and I suspect they will try to make some kind of move around my defensive positions. It's a delaying battle for me and I'm content with keeping there 3 IJA divisions.
Same in Canton area, where there are a couple of IJA divisions and various minor units.

In India, I took the grave decision of reinforcing Addu and Diego Garcia with 100AV circa each. I am convinced it's important to keep those two bases in my hands and they're in a nice spot in case Omar assaults Celyon.
Celyon won't be reinforced soon: I lack the men to do so if I buy the Americal Division and send it to SOPAC. Should I send it to India, I'd be able to reinforce Celyon with some of the british troops on the subcontinent, but I don't want to risk.

Burma is stable.







Attachment (1)

< Message edited by ITAKLinus -- 10/28/2021 3:57:44 PM >

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 208
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/29/2021 8:02:08 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline 		Carriers have a malus in COASTAL BASE hexes, right? Not in the coastal hexes without a base/dot, as far as I do remember/understand.
And CVE are excluded.

That's all I know but I'd like to be sure.

F.ex. I've found various threads on the matter and here it seems to state that the "any coastal hex" had been changed from UV/WITP to WITPAE:
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2712072&mpage=1&key=carrier%2Ccoastal%2Chex�


He has the the 4 CVs of KB in Koepang and I need to be 300% sure.

As far as I know, coastal hexes do not provide any malus while base hexes do and this is only for CV/CVL but not for CVE. Friendly or enemy base/dot doesn't count and they're both providing a malus.

Especially the "coastal non-base hex" part is important for me to be certain about.


Thanks guys!

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 209
RE: Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs De... - 10/29/2021 9:04:43 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline 		A partially related question: if I have a LCU with an air transportable device which is at (0), can I transfer it?
It is my understanding that I can.

Basically, I'd like to use the catalinas to transport a fragment of the below unit to China and then replenish it there. Is it feasible? The mortars should be transportable with their load cost of 4.






Attachment (1)

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Francesco

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 210
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