Advice on SAM saturation

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Advice on SAM saturation - 11/14/2021 3:51:59 PM

stolowski

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Is there a formula or rule of thumb for saturation of an isolated SAM unit (knowing its type of course) with minimum number of missiles?
To give a concrete example:

Enemy SAM: SA-10a Grumble [S300PT-1]
Engagement envelope: 2.7-40 nm (range), 25-25000 m (altitude)
Max target speed: 2234 kts (head on)
OODA cycle: detection : 15 seconds
targeting: 16 seconds (novice), 10 seconds (regular), 8 seconds (ace)
evasion: 2 seconds
missile defence: 5 harpoon / SLAM/ Maverick equivalents

My attacking force consists of a few F/A-18E Super Hornets armed with AGM-88E AARGM (range: 70nm), meaning I can engage this SAM outside of its engagement range - how many AARGMs do I need to get a hit and saturate its defenses assuming a concentrated simultaneous launch of the missiles?
I experimented with the mission editor and it seems that 8 AARGMs was enough for 1 hit (which disabled the SAM but didn't destroy it completely), but I wonder if there is a formula for it that takes all the variables into account (i.e. the distance a missile has to travel while in SAM's range, and its speed = how long it is in the range of SAM)?

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/14/2021 4:25:51 PM

CV60

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The short answer to your question is "no". There is no "rule of thumb" that I am aware of. However, you can get an approximate number by considering:
1) The number of hits you need to achieve in order to get the result you want, then
2) Increase that number by 1 or 2 to account for attacking system unreliability
3) The flight time of your attacking missiles/systems in the target's defense envelope then
4) The number of expected successful engagements the target's defenses will get in that space of time.

And of course, all these above factors can be adjusted by flight profiles, weapon system arcs, and jamming and deception systems (flares, ECM, decoys, etc).....

Bottom line, there is no easy answer.

< Message edited by CV60 -- 11/14/2021 4:28:03 PM >

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 12:08:22 AM

BeirutDude

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Don't underestimate what a few MALD-J's can do for your attack. At least one F/A-18 should be loaded out with them, I like two. It's a BOL weapon and you can control it's flight path to jam the SAM site from multiple angles.

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 12:38:33 AM

Gunner98

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Go big or stay home.

The trick with any modern SAM is to reduce the window of time it has to engage your missiles. You can do this by terrain masking your approach, using jammers, using decoys and/or just dumping missiles at it. All of the above is better.

If you can reduce the window by half with terrain masking and then a bit more with jamming and decoy a few missiles away you have a much better chance.

You only need one or two hits with an ARM or AARGM and follow up with CBU or iron bombs to take out the TELs

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 10:40:27 AM

BeirutDude

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

Go big or stay home.

The trick with any modern SAM is to reduce the window of time it has to engage your missiles. You can do this by terrain masking your approach, using jammers, using decoys and/or just dumping missiles at it. All of the above is better.

If you can reduce the window by half with terrain masking and then a bit more with jamming and decoy a few missiles away you have a much better chance.

You only need one or two hits with an ARM or AARGM and follow up with CBU or iron bombs to take out the TELs

Edited..

To add to what Gunner said, don't forget to gradually bring your strike lower (below the game's radar horizon and to save fuel) as you approach the target and only pop up to acquire the target and launch last minute.

Real World: In most radar uses we simplify the radar beam solution by saying radar is straight line-Line of sight (standard refraction), and that is what the game does. In reality radar is not line of sight (at least all of the time). Like in ASW where you have bending of sound waves and convergence zones, the same applies to radar (well not convergence zones). They are called Super refractive and sub refractive conditions. In Sub refractive conditions the atmospheric conditions tend to bend the radar beam higher and away from the standard refraction and that will leave a hole (we called it a "Duct" but that isn't quite right as I later learned in college) that the aircraft can take advantage of to get closer to the target before firing. In the 1980s we used an early computer program called the Integrated Refractive Effects Prediction System (IREPS), that would forecast the radar profile based on the atmosphere, radar characteristics and especially the Band.

The opposite of Sub refractive conditions are super refractive conditions and that is when the beam is lower than the Standard Atmosphere. You can see Super refractive conditions in the winter when in the early morning hours the weather radar beams hit the ground and it looks like a nuclear weapon went off by the radar site. This also creates the same profile with a gap in coverage.

So what we would have to do is to run both the bad guy's (usually a Soviet/Warsaw Pact) defensive package (SA-2, SA-3, Sa-6, SA-13 sites and radars, etc.) AND also our radars so we knew where our emissions where going. Ever wonder about the timing of an airstrike, it is more than sleepy operators, and cover of night but also radar beam bending which is optimal in the predawn hours in temperate zones. The different Soviet radar types and bands made this very hard but not impossible.

So real operators have a few tricks up their sleeves we do not. I suspect this is in the Professional Edition, but for our purposes this is over simplified.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA169561

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 11/15/2021 11:32:48 AM >

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 11:36:52 AM

BeirutDude

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Different refraction (including ducting/"trapping). Operationally, we referred to trapping and, if I recall how we used the terms, incorrectly, referred to null areas as a duct. Maybe I'm mistaken here as it has been 33-35 years since I did it.

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< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 11/15/2021 11:37:05 AM >

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 11:38:55 AM

BeirutDude

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Standard Atmosphere, note the lobes and that doesn't even account for beam width spreading with distance.

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 11:40:44 AM

BeirutDude

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Radar Profile with exploitable gap for an airborne radar

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 11:46:27 AM

BeirutDude

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This is what we would brief the strike commanders and pilots with. Again this would vary with the radar type, band, power and meteorological conditions. So you can imagine giving an A-7E or F/A-18 (in my day A's as we were transitioning). One for a Palm Frond, One for a Snow Drift, etc. It could get quite confusing. That's one reason the Soviets had so much overlap in their IADS with the mix of high, medium, low and point defense radars.

Start including an airborne Mainstay with surface based Palm fronds, Big Bars, etc. and integrating it now you come close to the game's use of the radar envelope.

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< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 11/15/2021 12:16:57 PM >

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 2:55:05 PM

PN79

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Excellent information! Thanks BeirutDude

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/15/2021 8:12:13 PM

AndrewJ

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Very interesting! I had no idea that the coverage would be so complex.

I guess this is part of how drone operators manage to sneak their craft in close to enemy radar systems.

Thanks for posting this.

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/19/2021 7:32:03 PM

Tcao

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Thanks for sharing that BeirutDude

Regarding the formula, it should be an easy one. SA-10a Bn has 48 missiles so you will need 49 HARMs, lol

Put joke aside. There are several factors need to be put into your formula.
first SA-10a's FCR radar can support max 4 target illumination, 8 communication channel so the SA-10 can shoot 4 incoming HARM and assign 2 missiles each. Each SA-10a's intercept chance against HARM is 55%, so for an easy calculation we can assume that 2 missiles will destroy a HARM. Then the HARM and SA-10 missile's speed play a role on how many engagement SA-10 can have before HARM get into the minimum engagement range. in CMO a HARM shoot at 36000ft will start at 2000kt and slow down to 1300kt with increased distance and decreased altitude. SA-10 started at 1100kt and quickly accelerated to 2300kt ( later will slowly decrease as it dive down to catch HARM). We can use 1500kt as HARM average speed in the calculation and SA-10 average speed at 2100kt. Due to DLZ, SA-10 will begin to engage HARM at 23nm distance.
So we can find out the 1st interception happened at 23 seconds later, 12.43nm away from SA-10a Bn.
using the same calculation method, Second interception at 7.26nm away
Third interception at 4.26nm away
Fourth interception at 2.49nm away

So in a worst case scenario you will need 17 HARMs to saturate SA-10a

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/21/2021 6:24:27 PM

BeirutDude

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tcao

Thanks for sharing that BeirutDude

Regarding the formula, it should be an easy one. SA-10a Bn has 48 missiles so you will need 49 HARMs, lol

Put joke aside. There are several factors need to be put into your formula.
first SA-10a's FCR radar can support max 4 target illumination, 8 communication channel so the SA-10 can shoot 4 incoming HARM and assign 2 missiles each. Each SA-10a's intercept chance against HARM is 55%, so for an easy calculation we can assume that 2 missiles will destroy a HARM. Then the HARM and SA-10 missile's speed play a role on how many engagement SA-10 can have before HARM get into the minimum engagement range. in CMO a HARM shoot at 36000ft will start at 2000kt and slow down to 1300kt with increased distance and decreased altitude. SA-10 started at 1100kt and quickly accelerated to 2300kt ( later will slowly decrease as it dive down to catch HARM). We can use 1500kt as HARM average speed in the calculation and SA-10 average speed at 2100kt. Due to DLZ, SA-10 will begin to engage HARM at 23nm distance.
So we can find out the 1st interception happened at 23 seconds later, 12.43nm away from SA-10a Bn.
using the same calculation method, Second interception at 7.26nm away
Third interception at 4.26nm away
Fourth interception at 2.49nm away

So in a worst case scenario you will need 17 HARMs to saturate SA-10a

Nice analysis

, of course the HARM missile that makes it through has a PoK that includes outright missing the target and malfunction. I don't know that I've ever seen an impacting HARM not kill the radar (dishes being easy to collapse) but I imagine it's possible to do damage and still have the radar operational? So I would suggest adding a few for those numbers (like 20 to 22 total HARMS) to account for those possibilities to ensure a kill.

$316,856 here and $316,856 there and pretty soon we're talking about real money!

Good thing we can electronically saturate the target for $80 plus DLCs!

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 11/21/2021 6:28:00 PM >

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 11/23/2021 7:33:15 PM

maverick3320

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As one who is playing through the entire "Fury" series of scenarios by Gunner98, I've seen enough SA-10s to have them start showing up in my sleep.

Simply rule of thumb for me: At maximum launch distance I generally throw 24 missiles (at least 75% of which are HARMs) at each. Each SA-10 seems to reasonably be able to handle 16 or so HARMs; the extras are a built in safety measure for all the associated SAM systems that usually surround the Grumbles. I keep a few SEAD shooters in reserve once the smaller systems start lighting up, and then lob a few at each as well. SA-5s I usually don't lose too much sleep over as they love to fire at max range and generally run out of ammo by the time I can put together an alpha strike anyway.

Since the Grumbles are invariably protecting something important, I try to combine one large SEAD strike with a Tomahawk (and SLAM, if available) strike simultaneously. Requires some fairly easy Excel math to figure out launch times, etc but almost always worth it.

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 12/1/2021 7:04:35 PM

Tcao

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

Nice analysis , of course the HARM missile that makes it through has a PoK that includes outright missing the target and malfunction. I don't know that I've ever seen an impacting HARM not kill the radar (dishes being easy to collapse) but I imagine it's possible to do damage and still have the radar operational? So I would suggest adding a few for those numbers (like 20 to 22 total HARMS) to account for those possibilities to ensure a kill.

$316,856 here and $316,856 there and pretty soon we're talking about real money! Good thing we can electronically saturate the target for $80 plus DLCs!

Thx,
yes, an impacting HARM that pass malfunction check will always kill the land based radar. In fact the CMO nerfed the HARM (although in my opinion it is still OP due to the land unit group modeling in the game. I remember in CMANO a HARM can kill the radar + couple launcher. 3 HARM will wipe out the whole SA-10 Bn.

This analysis assume the strike side take on the SAM in head on collision course, inbound without any ECM support. OECM absolutely helps. Put two E/A-18G at the edge of SAM envelope will reduce the detection range dramatically. In my testing, the incoming HARMs were detected 7nm away. SA-10a can only support one engagement at <3nm away.

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 12/1/2021 8:03:35 PM

DWReese

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On the side of the SA-10, the OpFor often likes to assign a short-range SA-15 as a personal protection unit. At close to $1M a missile, the Grumble usually restricts its targets to high value targets, allowing easier targets to be engaged by older systems.

As Al pointed out, MALDs and TALDs are a great way to spoof the Grumble into firing off all of its missiles. A SA-10 with no more missiles is harmless and no longer needs to actually be killed.

Additionally, if you were to knock out its radar with a HARM, then you have also rendered it harmless (for game purposes) and that's a mission kill. Often, that's good enough.

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 12/4/2021 3:11:27 AM

SeaQueen

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude
I suspect this is in the Professional Edition, but for our purposes this is over simplified.

Nope. It's the same old CMO/CMANO engine. Evaporation ducts and what not are cool, but to get at that you'd need a piece of software like AREPS or something similar which solves the wave equations given different boundary conditions provided by the atmosphere. The beam pattern is also simplified. That's all some pretty cool computational physics, but it's not in any version of Command I'm aware of.

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 12/4/2021 3:22:30 AM

SeaQueen

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese
A SA-10 with no more missiles is harmless and no longer needs to actually be killed.

Maybe. It depends on the desired effect. How long do you want it out of the fight? Shooting the radar takes it out of the fight for as long as it takes to replace the radar. Exhausting its supply of missiles takes it out of the fight for as long as it takes to reload. Destroying the entire SAM site takes it all out of the fight permanently.

In general, it's enough to take it out of the fight temporarily, provided you have a good strike plan and know how long you will need to get in and out. If the IADS is well designed then exhausting their munitions supply might be difficult because there are multiple overlapping systems that protect each other while they reload. You also generally don't want to tangle with SAM sites for their own sake. You tangle with them because you want to make holes to move the strikers through, and destroy the things you really want to kill, typically operational or strategic centers of gravity like brigade headquarters, political targets, hardened deeply buried bunkers containing high value people and equipment, or chemical weapons plants. Sometimes, certain SAM sites are worth investing the effort to completely destroy, for various reasons. Part of a good SEAD plan is understanding what you're trying to achieve and why.

< Message edited by SeaQueen -- 12/4/2021 3:31:08 AM >

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 12/11/2021 9:53:09 AM

maverick3320

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DWReese

On the side of the SA-10, the OpFor often likes to assign a short-range SA-15 as a personal protection unit. At close to $1M a missile, the Grumble usually restricts its targets to high value targets, allowing easier targets to be engaged by older systems.

As Al pointed out, MALDs and TALDs are a great way to spoof the Grumble into firing off all of its missiles. A SA-10 with no more missiles is harmless and no longer needs to actually be killed.

Additionally, if you were to knock out its radar with a HARM, then you have also rendered it harmless (for game purposes) and that's a mission kill. Often, that's good enough.

I've never been able to get enemy SAMs to actually engage any TALDs in this game, although to be fair, I haven't tried in a few months. Has a recent patch updated them?

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 12/11/2021 11:27:16 AM

AndrewJ

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quote:

I've never been able to get enemy SAMs to actually engage any TALDs in this game, although to be fair, I haven't tried in a few months. Has a recent patch updated them?

I don't recall any recent changes to that aspect of TALD behaviour.

The effectiveness of TALDS depends very much on what ROE have been selected for the SAM sites. If the designer has put them on Weapons TIGHT, they won't engage a target unless they have positively identified it as an enemy aircraft or munition. This means they will essentially ignore TALDS; they won't shoot them until they identify them, and once they identify them they know they're a decoy and still won't shoot them. Since Weapons TIGHT is the most common setting, this is probably what's happening.

If you come up against a SAM site on Weapons FREE, then it will start engaging TALDS at maximum allowed range.

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RE: Advice on SAM saturation - 12/11/2021 2:29:12 PM

thewood1

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I think a common issue is that designers don't pay enough attention to ROEs. They just leave it as tight and move on. ROEs in a heavy combat area should be built on having a declared exclusion zone for all aircraft and ships. And in a well-developed scenario, the ROEs can be dynamic depending special actions and events.

One thing the game is missing, except in lua, is the ability to tell defenders to not fire or have different ROEs in different directions/areas. This would allow you to have transit lanes for friendly or civilian traffic and free fire lanes in other directions/areas. But its also a new level of complexity that most people won't want to deal with.

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