Area of uncertainty

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Area of uncertainty - 12/9/2021 9:16:19 PM

Gainful

Posts: 9
Joined: 5/13/2021
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Hi. Didn't know what else to call it, but I'm sure you've seen the circle that forms around a contact that has been 'missing' (undetected) for a certain period of time. It is most noticeable after you lose track of a subsurface contact.

So I noticed this circle increases in size as time passes, I'm guessing to represent the area within which the contact could possibly be given its motion. But heres the thing, the circle doesn't seem to expand based on the contact's last known speed.

Giving the example of ASW operations, I detect a submarine and shortly lose contact, but I found out the speed of the submarine was 10 kts at the time of the disappearance. Logically after a period of 1 hour without detection, the circle should expand to show an area of 10nm around the sub's last known location, but instead it shows much less than that.

Why this is really important is because units assigned to patrol missions will automatically search for a missing contact within this circle. Aircraft on ASW patrol will drop sonobuoys and use dipping sonar within this circle. If the circle is not representing the correct search area then the searching units will never find the contact unless it drastically slowed down or stopped.

Is this an intentional mechanic by the devs? Because if not, I'd like to ask if the devs can correct this.

Post #: 1

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 5:40:14 AM

MarechalJoffre

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Joined: 12/18/2014
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According to a real life US Navy sonar operator, this seems intentional. From the article:

quote:

Datum is a point on the chart that slowly grows in uncertainty and distance over time. It is an expanding circle that ripples out in all directions like a splash on calm water. The speed at which the Area of Uncertainty (AoU) expands depends on the type of submarine. If it is a presumed Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarine, the AoU grows slower than if it is suspected to be a faster nuclear sub.

(in reply to Gainful)

Post #: 2

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 11:05:32 AM

Gainful

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Joined: 5/13/2021
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Thats all well and good, but the circle does not expand based on the speed of the submarine which is the way it should be doing, resulting in ASW assets searching the wrong area for a submarine that may be miles away at the time. And its not just submarines, it happens even with surface and air units. I'm not sure if this is a bug or not, otherwise I would have posted it in tech support.

(in reply to MarechalJoffre)

Post #: 3

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 2:34:57 PM

CV60

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The AoU also expands and contracts based on how good your datum is. For instance, if you start with a CERTSUB quality datum (example: you spot a periscope), then your AoU will be smaller. In contrast, if you start with a single long range passive sonar hit, then your AoU will be larger because of bearing and range errors.

(in reply to Gainful)

Post #: 4

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 3:39:44 PM

maverick3320

Posts: 146
Joined: 2/14/2021
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Is there any way to have an ASW aircraft start searching at the center of an area of uncertainty when given an attack order, versus it automatically going to one of the farthest edges first?

(in reply to CV60)

Post #: 5

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 5:39:48 PM

tylerblakebrandon

Posts: 173
Joined: 5/11/2020
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Looking at the manual on page 328 I see the following;

"New feature: Mark Contact Position, accessible by right
clicking on the contact and selecting �mark contact
position�. It�s useful for determining possible locations of
uncertain contacts tracked over a long period of time."

Seems you could mark the contact position this way and create a smaller search area and expand it out. Or just set your search area to be smaller than the AOU and expand out.

Ad depending on how the initial contact was made can determine the starting size for the AOU. For example from page 305,

"�Submarine Datum� contact: If an inbound torpedo is
detected, a circular 10nm wide submarine contact is
generated under the premise that the launching unit is close
by somewhere. If a sub-launched missile is observed leaving
the water, likewise a smaller 1nm sub contact is generated.
This makes ASW more effective."

(in reply to maverick3320)

Post #: 6

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 6:42:23 PM

Gainful

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Joined: 5/13/2021
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quote:

ORIGINAL: CV60

The AoU also expands and contracts based on how good your datum is. For instance, if you start with a CERTSUB quality datum (example: you spot a periscope), then your AoU will be smaller. In contrast, if you start with a single long range passive sonar hit, then your AoU will be larger because of bearing and range errors.

I pinpointed the exact location of a sub. It surfaced due to very shallow water but dived again before I could get an ASW aircraft to its location, and thats where the issue starts.

quote:

ORIGINAL: maverick3320

Is there any way to have an ASW aircraft start searching at the center of an area of uncertainty when given an attack order, versus it automatically going to one of the farthest edges first?

+1. This would be useful if there is a way to do it. Plotting a manual course doesn't seem to work though.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tylerblakebrandon

Seems you could mark the contact position this way and create a smaller search area and expand it out. Or just set your search area to be smaller than the AOU and expand out.

Thats doable but its extra micromanaging in a game that already has tremendous amounts of micromanaging. If the AoU can be made to expand according to the contact's speed then it would automatically solve the problem.

(in reply to CV60)

Post #: 7

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 7:34:50 PM

thewood1

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Joined: 11/27/2005
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So is the issue now not about the uncertainty zone size but the response of the ASW aircraft?

_____________________________

You are like puss filled boil on nice of ass of bikini model. You are nasty to everybody but then try to sweeten things up with a nice post somewhere else. That's nice but you're still a boil on a beautiful thing! - BDukes

(in reply to Gainful)

Post #: 8

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 8:49:06 PM

Gainful

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Well both actually. The response of the units is based on the size of the uncertainty zone, and since the uncertainty zone size is incorrect, as a result the AI response is incorrect. The uncertainty circle always ends up being much smaller than it actually should be. Like if a unit has travelled 10nm in 1 hour the circle will only cover an area something like 2nm or so.

(in reply to thewood1)

Post #: 9

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/10/2021 8:57:48 PM

BDukes

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Subsurface uncertainty zones need to be impacted by continental landmasses as well. (ex. hours old detections extending a zone well into Iceland). I've posted saves and examples numerous times over the years. Not a big deal for non-window licking humans but it is for the AI.

Mike

_____________________________

Don't call it a comeback...

(in reply to Gainful)

Post #: 10

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/12/2021 7:32:48 AM

KnightHawk75

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gainful
Well both actually. The response of the units is based on the size of the uncertainty zone, and since the uncertainty zone size is incorrect, as a result the AI response is incorrect. The uncertainty circle always ends up being much smaller than it actually should be. Like if a unit has travelled 10nm in 1 hour the circle will only cover an area something like 2nm or so.

Interesting. So basically you want if classified sub contact (classification 1+?) + prior known speed for sub contact then generate AoU by last known contact speed in meters per second * last detection time seconds, otherwise current behavior? What is downsides for subs vs how it is now for subs, me wondering if any weapons will not launch due to wider uncertainty, things like that, probably not, just wondering out loud.

quote:

ORIGINAL: BDukes
Subsurface uncertainty zones need to be impacted by continental landmasses as well. (ex. hours old detections extending a zone well into Iceland). I've posted saves and examples numerous times over the years. Not a big deal for non-window licking humans but it is for the AI.
Mike

True, nothing like the AI running into land (happens far less now) while chasing ghosts. ;)

(in reply to Gainful)

Post #: 11

RE: Area of uncertainty - 12/14/2021 5:00:06 AM

Gainful

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Thought I'd post a screenshot to illustrate the problem. You can see the sub contact is 1 hr 49 mins old and the sub is moving at 17 kts but the AoU circle is only 1.10 nm when it should be showing a 30 nm radius.