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RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (Allies) vs Seminole (Axis)

 
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RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/16/2022 8:42:20 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		The reality is the remaining four TFs arriving means the Allies are pot committed to conquering Corsica. They are trying to overwhelm it quickly, and they possess a better conveyor for getting units to this battlefield than I do.
But that is the point of defending this sector, to compel an Allied response and the time it will take to plan, execute, and exfil for the next operation.
The clock is always ticking on the Allies.
He came in with two landings, confirmed it wasn't enough, and immediately followed up with reinforcements. If he sees reinforcements from the Germans it should compel him to redouble his commitment.



Army Group C agrees to send 4th FJ to the island and try to rebalance existing forces to contain multiple beachheads.
One ship hit enroute. Insufficient port capacity to unload. This could be a problem for division sized units, and a factor in thoughts about holding for any time.
17th LW Fld Div is unloaded from ships and defending the port lifeline back to Italy.



The German goal is to tie up some TFs for as long as possible, cause as much attrition on TFs and the Allied shipping pool as possible while the Luftwaffe still has its best relative strength, and to extract the Corsican defenders without losing any units.
Transports are repositioned to begin pulling out depleted formations, and processing the evacuation of any cities 1st Army decides to abandon. I want to avoid last stands and surrenders wherever possible and frustrate the enemy's prospective gains.

Army Group C moves 18th and 19th LW Inf Div to closest ports in Italy and unloaded them from trains to potentially take transports to the island. May decide not to feed anymore units to this maelstrom.
Allies have at least two corps worth of troops committed to the invasion so far. Even more at sea. We noticed that a FF Inf Rgt was lost the week prior. Not sure if invasion bounce, or lost at sea.

(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 31
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/16/2022 9:39:48 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		In Sicily the Schmalz Bde was pushed back.
With the Allied commitment to Corsica the fear of Allied landings pinning the Sicily force fade for a while.
Still intend to withdraw orderly and not be compelled to suffer retreat losses wherever possible.



Hube is hoping to hold this island until October.
Allies still have around two corps worth of troops tied up here.
What we've seen so far:



Hube pulls the perimeter back again, leaving some Italians to hold the front lines.


(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 32
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/16/2022 9:44:00 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		With the sharp contests on Corsica and Sicily the Allies are finally starting to bleed in this campaign:



As mentioned before, a Free French Rgt was lost at sea.
The Italians continue to valiantly fight for il Duce.


(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 33
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/16/2022 10:04:38 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Turn 12
Sept 18, 1943

Weather report:



The battle of Corsica continues!

Ground losses:



More Allied units have come ashore. Some battles, with favorable results, but the 194th Sec Rgt is routed from the island.
The depleted 198th and 200th Sec Rgt are airlifted out by Italian transports.




(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 34
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/16/2022 10:09:55 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Units on Corsica at the start of the turn:



Still no Italian surrender, but their units continue to disintegrate under Allied assault.



Air losses:


(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 35
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/16/2022 10:20:33 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Allied VP losses on the battlefield begin to weigh on the overall score:



17th LW Inf Div moves inland to help maintain LOC between Bastia and Calvi. LOCs are restored inland between all ports, but will be lost for good next week.
Allies expect to clear the island by mid-October. We hope to hold some ports into November. 18th and 19th LW Inf Div regiments are shipped to the island and gather near the closest ports to make the trip next week.

The Luftwaffe and their Italian friends are able to keep the sea lanes open to Bastia for another week. Capability here is degrading fast, but Allies are struggling too, and weather may eventually help make Allied isolation very difficult. I just want to force the TFs to stay put supporting the temporary ports.

On Sicily the British keep pounding forward.
Down to the Messina perimeter now, a regiment of the 15th PzG has returned to the mainland.
Schmalz Bde switches places with H. Goering Pzr Div and fresh Italian infantry divisions traverse the straits while more are railed southward.
We estimate we can hold here at least another two weeks, maybe longer depending on Allied luck.

Fort built in Taranto to boost fortification level beyond 4. We will put forts in the major Italian ports.

Overall Unit Level map of Italian Theater:


(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 36
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 1:01:02 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Turn 13
September 25, 1943

Weather report:



VP chart:




(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 37
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 1:11:00 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Corsica barely isolated. Which means completely isolated.



Naval patrols break through.



This week we check how to airlift as much as possible and reposition air assets to get the rest next week if necessary.

3/2nd FJ island hops from a tenuous position in the port of Ajaccio across the island to Porto Vecchio to beef up the defenses.



192nd Sec Rgt is airlifted to mainland Italy.





< Message edited by Seminole -- 1/17/2022 1:13:01 AM >

(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 38
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 1:18:58 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		More Italian units destroyed:



Ground losses in turn 13:



Air losses in Allied phase last turn:



Air losses in the German phase this turn:


(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 39
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 1:38:55 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Supply situation on Corsica and CV values at the end of the turn after moves.
Before evacuating the 3/2nd FJ Rgt put all supplies in Ajaccio to the torch.



Allies get more units ashore and clear the interior.
The Allies have made a huge commitment and it will take some time to get these force back out of the small ports available once this island is conquered.
The last column denotes the last time the unit in question was directly spotted.





< Message edited by Seminole -- 1/17/2022 1:39:36 AM >

(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 40
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 3:21:18 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		A look in on Axis production and pools:






(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 41
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 3:24:44 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		FB groups:



LB groups:



TB and PA groups:






(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 42
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 3:31:40 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		1/18th LW is still bobbing in the harbor and we send them back without unloading. Nervous about port capacity, and not being able to maintain a rout route for these guys with nowhere to place them onshore but the city I need for evacuation flights.
They survive the trip without incident.
1/19th LW Rgt also makes the dangerous voyage back to Italy without incident.

95th Sec Rgt has already been punted off island by attackers.

192nd Sec Rgt load cost 147 has been flown to Grossoto
3/2nd FJ Rgt transport cost 2867 transported from Ajaccio to Porto Vecchio
All aircraft losses in this mission due to flak
2/2nd FJ Rgt transport cost 2266 holding
4th FJ Div load cost 6604 holding Bastia
1/2nd FJ Rgt transport cost 2363 holding Calvi
1/1st FJ Rgt transport cost 3250 holding mountains by Calvi

Go 244s moved from SW France to Grossoto in order to help air lift. Hope allied bombing moves to a new target next week...



(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 43
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 3:35:09 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Sicily
Monty’s 8th Army is still slogging toward Messina, with XIII and XXX Corps.
Brits hit the German right wing and forced a retreat.
Schmalz Bde is bolstering two Italian infantry divisions, but they fold under the pressure and Hube orders a retreat that ends up costly in AFVs.
Attackers include
3rd BR Inf Div
49th BR Inf Div
50th BR Inf Div
30th BR Arm Bde
33rd BR Tank Bde
Inns of Court BR Arm Car Rgt
1st King’s Dragoon Gds BR Arm Car Rgt



Brits hit hard against the German right wing with:
5th BR Inf Div
46th BR Inf Div
49th BR Inf Div
56th BR Inf Div
78th BR Inf Div
4th BR Arm Bde
8th BR Arm Bde
33rd BR Arm Bde
7th BR Arm Div
12th Lancers BR Arm Car Rgt
1st King’s Dragoon Gds BR Arm Car Rgt

H. Goering Pzr Div and the 3/15th PzG Rgt are accompanied by the 13th ‘Re’ IT Inf Div.
They hold against 3 separate attacks, but fortifications are degraded.
3/15th PzG Rgt is ordered to withdraw to to the mainland while Italian Inf Divs move to Sicily and Schmalz Bde and H. Goering Pzr Div try to hold the last two hexes of Sicily. Next week we pull back to Messina and force him to dig us out under the cover of all flak concentrated on the Straits.

(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 44
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 6:16:46 AM   
EwaldvonKleist


Posts: 2038
Joined: 4/14/2016
From: Berlin, Germany
Status: offline 		You are doing mich better than the Germans historically did. With the extra time you had to fortify and reinforce the Italian mainland, this should snowball. The deteriorating weather won't help the Allies either.

< Message edited by EwaldvonKleist -- 1/17/2022 6:18:17 AM >

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(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 45
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 7:45:25 AM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		the Allied player shouldn't go for Corsica before the Italian mainland, in part it really strains the air assets to protect so far north and in part the rewards are mismatched.

yes, you need Corsica for the landings aimed at Rome but they are not feasible till later in 1943. Hit the mainland with that force he has in Corsica and Italy is out of the war and the Axis needs to bail out everything to the south of the target - even just repeating the historical Anzio or down in the toe (again staying safely inside air range)

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(in reply to EwaldvonKleist)
Post #: 46
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 1:26:34 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		The island defenses present additional challenges the historical Allied command didn’t face.
Kent had the advantage of a prior match, and thus suspected my island defense at the outset and planned/acted accordingly.

In a usual match the Allied player doesn’t realize that major operations to capture Sardinia and Corsica will be required. When the Italians generally surrender, mid-August to early September when Messina falls (depending on German commitment to S. Italy), the Allied player has his first clue something is afoot when the Italians on the islands are silently disarmed and disbanded by co-located German security or para regiments.

Then existing plans must be re-examined and slotting of the Sardinia and Corsican invasion can take place.

I’m not quite sure how I would approach the island defense I present if I were the Allies.
My inclination is to refuse the bait, and focus elsewhere, preventing the Axis from seizing initiative and directing Allied focus at their whim.

I do not like a Salerno or even really Anzio landing site. Geographically too constrained. More gift to the defender than leverage to the invader.

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 47
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 2:26:33 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Turn 14
October 2, 1943

Forgot to get a weather report.

The Allies did try to keep up the airfield attacks at Grosseto, but fortunately to little or no effect:




(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 48
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 3:06:19 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		We’ve lost the battle for Porto Vecchio. This was a surprise, I didn’t expect he’d have the requisite combat power yet, but I suspect isolation effects took their toll.

We also lost our battle in the mountains. This too was a surprise, likely also due to isolation effects in combat upon review of the battle logs. Unlike Italy and Sardinia, forts on Corsica all cost 4 AP, so not likely to make the expenditure.

This means we’re down to two cities, and the port of Calvi is in the most danger. I believe we can exfil these troops, and hopefully hold out one more week in Bastia before we pull out.

He has made the mistake of placing a TF adjacent to the port of Bastia. He could have effectively isolated the port one hex away, but maybe he also wants to force the attrition ashore that his naval batteries can provide.
The risk is that he will suffer fire from the port guns, and we are going to bring every asset in the Italian air force and the Luftwaffe to bear on this TF.

Battle of Corsica:



(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 49
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 6:03:29 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		With 3 different Fallschirmjaeger regiments surrendering Germany's highest leadership loses faith in the mission and orders an immediate withdrawal of remaining forces on the island.



This effort is executed flawlessly for once, and while we had initially confirmed sufficient lift to remove all remaining forces, a decision was made to leave the 196th Sec Rgt behind in Bastia manning the port guns. Hopefully one more phase of attrition, and compelling the attacks on the port to delay it's repair as an Allied port, are worth the trade off of a security regiment that can be reconstituted and put back on garrison, rear guard duty in a few weeks.



< Message edited by Seminole -- 1/17/2022 6:29:34 PM >

(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 50
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 6:16:04 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		The 8th Army hits H.G. Pzr Div until they compel a withdrawal.



The city of Messina holds under a pair of attacks.


(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 51
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 6:31:43 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		A check on the relative success of the German efforts in the Italian theater so far.
Blaskowitz has done his best with the hand he was dealt, managing 5-3 victory ratio.
Hube boasts a 9-1 victory in his efforts to frustrate 8th Army.



Ground losses



Overall unit level detail of Italian theater at the end of turn 14:


(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 52
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 6:59:56 PM   
EwaldvonKleist


Posts: 2038
Joined: 4/14/2016
From: Berlin, Germany
Status: offline 		To what extent is a landing North of Rome or even Livorno possible as the first landing? Considering that he is behind schedule and that most of your strong units are in South Italy, couldn't such a landing force a quick retreat?

Meanwhile the ghost of Napoleon watches the battles from Elba.

Btw. could you maybe show CV instead of unit names in your screenshots?


< Message edited by EwaldvonKleist -- 1/17/2022 7:04:09 PM >

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(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 53
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 7:28:45 PM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

To what extent is a landing North of Rome or even Livorno possible as the first landing? Considering that he is behind schedule and that most of your strong units are in South Italy, couldn't such a landing force a quick retreat?

Meanwhile the ghost of Napoleon watches the battles from Elba.

Btw. could you maybe show CV instead of unit names in your screenshots?



not, he'd get slaughtered (assuming the LW is well used), both sides should chuck everything in as its a chance to define who 'wins' in Italy (ie when does Rome fall), the calculation is air units*air miles, if the Allies have to use too many miles simply getting there then they can actually be driven off. I've had two brutal air battles in that region (both sides) and both came down to fine margins, with the Allies relatively well set up in the first case.

even going in around Lake Bolsena can be a reach too far

but I do think the Allied player should have gone for a landing somewhere at the top of the toe or around Taranto, either resolve S Italy in their favour, push Italy out of the war and give them the bases for a second set of landings further north (ie Rome)

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(in reply to EwaldvonKleist)
Post #: 54
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 8:07:56 PM   
EwaldvonKleist


Posts: 2038
Joined: 4/14/2016
From: Berlin, Germany
Status: offline 		But he could base the Aircorce on Corsica and Sardinia?
For clarity, "first landing"=first mainland landing", I should have been more clear.

< Message edited by EwaldvonKleist -- 1/17/2022 8:08:38 PM >

_____________________________

The Library of Gary Grigsby's War in the East resources.
Do you want total war? Guide for WitE players

(in reply to loki100)
Post #: 55
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 10:11:30 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		I alway took the unit name screenshots for AAR purposes, but do have some CV shots as well. I’ll include in the future when I have them.
Trying to reduce my pics per post so I don’t overload each page, so each turn will get several posts.

In my own analysis from either side, I look upon The Heel as where the Allies should come ashore first in Italy if they expect opposition.
The terrain and rail layout are favorable for beachhead defense and temporary depot placement, also allowing effective ground support.
You also can quickly obtain a large number of size 2 airfields, in addition to those your landings create, and bring thus forward LBs to support operations.

I think the Axis could try to stymy the Allies here, but it would give the Allies advantages like fighters flying at short range from all the available airfields, and if done early enough you have weather in S Italy still working in the Allies favor.

(in reply to EwaldvonKleist)
Post #: 56
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/17/2022 11:25:27 PM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Turn 15
October 9, 1943

Weather report:



244th and 245th Inf Div are raised and moved to the Netherlands with the 65th Inf Div in prep for the withdrawal of two infantry divisions next month to the Eastern Front.



Allies succeed in forcing Germans out of Messina.



Corsica also falls with the surrender at Bastia
The island campaign is complete.


(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 57
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/18/2022 1:31:48 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Unit level detail for formations in the Italian theater, including N. Italy.

Still no Italian surrender. If my estimates are correct, the Germans have 198 garrison CV in Italy not within 10 hexes of an Allied unit.

In all conditions, when the surrender check is made, if random(200)>garrison value, Italy surrenders.




(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 58
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/18/2022 4:54:38 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Turn 16
October 16, 1943

Rain keeps the Allies grounded.



Recon shows lots of Allied units still on Corsica.



Monty tries and fails to get over the Straits with a Task Force assisted crossing.



50th BR Inf Div listed as destroyed, several formations routed in the failed assault.



(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 59
RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/18/2022 5:03:32 AM   
Seminole


Posts: 2105
Joined: 7/28/2011
Status: offline 		Italians are still in the fight.

Allies suffer a turn of lopsided losses for a change:



Air war is quiet this week:



Build Atlantic Wall forts in Dieppe, Etaples, and Bruges ports.



Garrisons are well above need in preparation for redeployment East by several divisions.



(in reply to Seminole)
Post #: 60
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