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2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/12/2022 12:44:47 PM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline 		IMHO, weather and overnight illumination conditions are sub-optimal for Russian action in the Ukraine for the next 7 days. Currently the high temperatures are in the low 30s F / near 2-4C with overnight lows in the 15-20F / -10 to -6C range, but not long enough of a duration to hard freeze the ground for a 40-50 ton MBT. By Tuesday we're looking at high temps in the 40-45F /4 to 8C range and overnight lows 30-35F/-1 to 3 C. This definitely will allow the fields to become mud quagmires (which from the videos I'm seeing they are now). If I were a Russian BTG commander I'd be scared S***less my columns would be completely road-bound and if the defenders even can use the ATGMs they had in inventory already to effect my columns would have trouble punching through and I'd be severely limited in my freedom of action. Now add Javelins to the mix, if they integrated them to front line forces and can use them effectively, could be a major mess for them.

Full Moon is Feb 16th in just 4 days and Sunday Night's illumination is 80%. That means for infantry/Special Ops infiltration, as well as, aircraft the illumination will be greater taking away (or limiting) that advantage from a foe with lesser night vision equipment. Don't know how important that is today, but was huge in my dinosaur days of the 1980s. At bare minimum waiting until the New Moon on March 2nd give the Russian SOF forces, with the better night vision equipment/night training more advantages. However waiting until early March has the risk of even warmer weather and more rain.

Thoughts? What am I missing here?

_____________________________

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Post #: 1
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/12/2022 2:00:06 PM   
Gunner98

 

Posts: 5508
Joined: 4/29/2005
From: The Great White North!
Status: offline 		Field Marshal Winter has relinquished the battlefield to General Mud.

If I recall my history, the campaign season on the Russian Steppes was May to Oct with a brief (Brief) interlude in January where the ground is frozen enough for maneuver.

All the speculation and punditry in the world cannot change the weather on the Russian Front.

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RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/12/2022 2:43:31 PM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
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From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
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quote:

Field Marshal Winter has relinquished the battlefield to General Mud.

If I recall my history, the campaign season on the Russian Steppes was May to Oct with a brief (Brief) interlude in January where the ground is frozen enough for maneuver.

All the speculation and punditry in the world cannot change the weather on the Russian Front.


Bart, I was hoping you, and SeaQueen would actually chime in on this. Glad to see you thinking along the same lines. Doesn't mean Putin won't act, as he seems to be driven by other issues other than causalities. If he does act now, not a good situation for his troops. Not that they'll loose, they just overwhelm the Ukrainians especially if they only go to the Dnepr, but at what cost in lives????

< Message edited by BeirutDude -- 2/12/2022 3:12:03 PM >

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 3
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/12/2022 3:27:35 PM   
Gunner98

 

Posts: 5508
Joined: 4/29/2005
From: The Great White North!
Status: offline 		I'll try to respond without getting the tread shut down..

There is no need for Russia to act, they have won already:

-Gas prices for Europe are high - good for their economy in general and individuals in particular
-NATO looks weak and fragmented
-NATO leaders look weak and powerless
-Domestic population fixated and fearful, will be relieved when it doesn't turn into a war
-Ukrainians (and others in Eastern Europe) looking over their shoulders wondering

I'd really like to know what 100,000 troops - even if there was that many - could hope to do in the best of weather. How many times have we counted the same trains and convoys? The Germans ran out of troops in this area with Army Group South with 8-10 times that number.

Anyway - great grist for scenarios, but I think we'll be talking about it long after nothing happens.

Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

B

_____________________________

Check out our novel, Northern Fury: H-Hour!: http://northernfury.us/
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RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/12/2022 3:37:23 PM   
BeirutDude


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From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
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quote:

Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”


Great insights! Love the finishing Sun Tzu quote. Putin is definitely a master of brinksmanship.

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 5
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/12/2022 3:54:33 PM   
Gunner98

 

Posts: 5508
Joined: 4/29/2005
From: The Great White North!
Status: offline 		There are a few that apply:

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

And one from the old German guy that could apply as well:

"The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish the kind of war on which they are embarking."


Modern war does not have to involve bullets but it does have casualties. Cyber, information, money are all weapons these days.

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Post #: 6
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/12/2022 4:17:58 PM   
Filitch


Posts: 423
Joined: 6/25/2016
From: St. Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline 		Weather and political conditions is good only for Ukrainian aggression against LPR and DPR in violation of Minsk agreements. Political - because there is no willing of Russian government to full-scale conflict, entering to territory of Donetsk republics and moreover to Ukrainian territory. Weather - because in case of full-scale Russian actions in defend of LPR and DPR against Ukraine, armored and mechanized troops will have limited maneuverability, low clouds limits usage of guided weapon like laser-guided bombs. So only Ukrainian aggression have sense. There are no any political, economy or military reason for Russia to seize Ukraine like US seize Iraq 1991, 2003.
Really guys, be a serious. All this "last preparation, 70% ready, 100500 millions Russian troops" - is a chicken feed.

(in reply to BeirutDude)
Post #: 7
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 10:41:42 AM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline 		2/13, latest forecast for Kharkiv, Ukraine.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to Filitch)
Post #: 8
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 3:06:41 PM   
BDukes

 

Posts: 1695
Joined: 12/27/2017
Status: offline 		Sunny with a good chance of artillery

The stuff is heavy to all American Ukes.

Mike

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Post #: 9
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 3:23:48 PM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline 		True story, we used to have remarks on weather observations (they were called Airways Observations). They would be things like...

Thunderstorm overhead
Visibility lower south
Cloud to ground lightning east of airfield

One time in Beirut when were under rocket attack I sent an Ob to the ships offshore with a remark that read...

"Artillery overhead, Observer underground"

Can't make this stuff up!!!! It was a fleet joke for years afterward and I never lived it down while I was on active duty.

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to BDukes)
Post #: 10
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 4:30:26 PM   
marcusm

 

Posts: 776
Joined: 12/8/2007
From: Göteborg/Sweden
Status: offline 		Russia and offensive war usually ends up in tears, for Russia. That would be a good reason not to :D.

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Post #: 11
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 5:09:38 PM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline 		I'm going to back track and just keep this to the weather in theater.

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to marcusm)
Post #: 12
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 5:21:24 PM   
maverick3320

 

Posts: 146
Joined: 2/14/2021
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

I'll try to respond without getting the tread shut down..

There is no need for Russia to act, they have won already:

-Gas prices for Europe are high - good for their economy in general and individuals in particular
-NATO looks weak and fragmented
-NATO leaders look weak and powerless
-Domestic population fixated and fearful, will be relieved when it doesn't turn into a war
-Ukrainians (and others in Eastern Europe) looking over their shoulders wondering

I'd really like to know what 100,000 troops - even if there was that many - could hope to do in the best of weather. How many times have we counted the same trains and convoys? The Germans ran out of troops in this area with Army Group South with 8-10 times that number.

Anyway - great grist for scenarios, but I think we'll be talking about it long after nothing happens.

Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

B


Interesting insight. However: if Putin's stated goal is to prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the West - which I actually believe - how does this buildup help him? If anything, he's pushed Ukrainians and other Eastern European nations (to say nothing of Scandinavians as well) even further from Russia's orbit.

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 13
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 5:50:37 PM   
BDukes

 

Posts: 1695
Joined: 12/27/2017
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

True story, we used to have remarks on weather observations (they were called Airways Observations). They would be things like...

Thunderstorm overhead
Visibility lower south
Cloud to ground lightning east of airfield

One time in Beirut when were under rocket attack I sent an Ob to the ships offshore with a remark that read...

"Artillery overhead, Observer underground"

Can't make this stuff up!!!! It was a fleet joke for years afterward and I never lived it down while I was on active duty.


Ha! I bet.

More a fan of history than politics but must of cost millions to mobilize and the guy has to show a return. Weather is more operational at this point. Guessing we'll see something bad soon.

Wargamer in me is interested but cautiously. Online OSINT and punditry is so hard to proof these days. Academics generally review their BS and these communities should probably start moving in that direction. Even the experts are a little sketchy these days after getting Iraq and Afghanistan so wrong. Proof is in the pudding kind of thing.

CMO is good at looking at the tech on tech stuff. That is where I generally keep it. It can be a good escape as well.

Keep up the great work BD!

Mike






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Post #: 14
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 6:17:05 PM   
BDukes

 

Posts: 1695
Joined: 12/27/2017
Status: offline 		Just gave your Kiev scenario a use. I wanted to see if Ukr aircraft are pinned with S-400 around. They definitely are if flying at higher altitudes. Ukrainian Fencers (I added) were able to get about 40nm from the SA-20's before being engaged.

Mike

< Message edited by BDukes -- 2/13/2022 6:39:35 PM >

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RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 6:32:14 PM   
BDukes

 

Posts: 1695
Joined: 12/27/2017
Status: offline 		Just tried the same with rainy weather and its roughly the same.

Mike


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Post #: 16
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 7:32:21 PM   
LargeDiameterBomb

 

Posts: 80
Joined: 3/3/2019
Status: offline 		I don't think mud will be decisive factor or even very significant factor at all in this very likely coming war. Of course it will create some problems, but not meaningful problems.

Russian MBTs are light and have wide tracks and low ground pressure. I've seen several videos of tanks driving in very muddy training ranges farther north where the ground is absolutely not frozen (And on training ranges the repeated travel of the tracks over the ground usually grind the earth/sand into a more fine powder excellent for creating real mud composed of ultra small particles) without any significant problems at all. Nothing close to getting stuck even for a second.

I fail to see why tanks moving in broad formations over open terrain or on small paved roads between several acre sized fields will suffer any larger problems from this.

Basically every road is paved in Ukraine these days.

This is not the 1940s where Panzerkampwagen III with narrow tracks and even worse, trucks and horses that were supposed to draw two-wheeled field guns through mud got stuck on every smallish road beucause the passage of just two hundred vehicle's before had turned it into at least knee-deep mud, because the road surface was just flattened dirt.
Nowadays the same road would be paved and even the 1940s Wehrmacht would have had little problem with mud on the eastern front these days.


Probably we will soon see who is right.


PS Further I suspect at least a significant proportion of the absolute worst pictures from the eastern front one has seen and which is etched into the brain of every military history guy with Wehrmacht vehicles stuck in impossible conditions were taken during the spring melt (But that is just a guess and is not material to my argument - it's more of an explanation why there is this incessant focus on the supposedly impossible problems the mud will create for the invading Russian forces).

(in reply to BDukes)
Post #: 17
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/13/2022 8:25:15 PM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline
quote:

I don't think mud will be decisive factor or even very significant factor at all in this very likely coming war. Of course it will create some problems, but not meaningful problems.

Russian MBTs are light and have wide tracks and low ground pressure. I've seen several videos of tanks driving in very muddy training ranges farther north where the ground is absolutely not frozen (And on training ranges the repeated travel of the tracks over the ground usually grind the earth/sand into a more fine powder excellent for creating real mud composed of ultra small particles) without any significant problems at all. Nothing close to getting stuck even for a second.

I fail to see why tanks moving in broad formations over open terrain or on small paved roads between several acre sized fields will suffer any larger problems from this.

Basically every road is paved in Ukraine these days.

This is not the 1940s where Panzerkampwagen III with narrow tracks and even worse, trucks and horses that were supposed to draw two-wheeled field guns through mud got stuck on every smallish road beucause the passage of just two hundred vehicle's before had turned it into at least knee-deep mud, because the road surface was just flattened dirt.
Nowadays the same road would be paved and even the 1940s Wehrmacht would have had little problem with mud on the eastern front these days.


Probably we will soon see who is right.


PS Further I suspect at least a significant proportion of the absolute worst pictures from the eastern front one has seen and which is etched into the brain of every military history guy with Wehrmacht vehicles stuck in impossible conditions were taken during the spring melt (But that is just a guess and is not material to my argument - it's more of an explanation why there is this incessant focus on the supposedly impossible problems the mud will create for the invading Russian forces).


Thanks for the insights. Interesting point on Russian MBTs and the wide tracks, lighter weight. Certainly they've had 80 some odd years to develop MBTs for that environment. As you said, we'll see. My info is pretty dated as a Cold War Warrior.

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to LargeDiameterBomb)
Post #: 18
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 12:13:46 AM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline 		I did find this video from 2017. I have no idea if these are similar conditions to what's happening with the mud near Ukraine right now, but what I see here are two dead tank crews if this were a combat situation...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VsmnxM8288

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to BeirutDude)
Post #: 19
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 9:50:57 AM   
Shkval25

 

Posts: 22
Joined: 3/29/2019
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quote:

Now add Javelins to the mix, if they integrated them to front line forces and can use them effectively, could be a major mess for them.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Javelins are all in a single warehouse somewhere to please the End-User Monitoring program.

(in reply to BeirutDude)
Post #: 20
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 10:30:32 AM   
Gunner98

 

Posts: 5508
Joined: 4/29/2005
From: The Great White North!
Status: offline
quote:

This is not the 1940s where Panzerkampwagen III with narrow tracks and even worse, trucks and horses that were supposed to draw two-wheeled field guns through mud got stuck on every smallish road beucause the passage of just two hundred vehicle's before had turned it into at least knee-deep mud, because the road surface was just flattened dirt.
Nowadays the same road would be paved and even the 1940s Wehrmacht would have had little problem with mud on the eastern front these days.


No, my impressions come from standing on a paved road between the Oder River and Seelow heights where approximately 2000 wide tracked Russian T-34 and other wide-tracked vehicles were stuck in the mud getting shot at - because you cannot fight from a road. Roads are great for traveling with one huge disadvantage - everyone knows where they are. The paved roads are critical for sustainment/logistics which is what killed the Wehrmacht, also good for pursuit or quick withdrawal. Anyone who fights on roads dies quickly.

This video was from a few days ago - I think what it really shows is inexperienced drivers but it is an example of what the mud can do to a company of modern wide tracked tanks. https://twitter.com/StephVisual/status/1492637009281785856?s=20&t=mSCBGdh0hHcyiNa8lRi2Rg



_____________________________

Check out our novel, Northern Fury: H-Hour!: http://northernfury.us/
And our blog: http://northernfury.us/blog/post2/
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Post #: 21
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 11:07:13 AM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline
quote:

I wouldn't be surprised if the Javelins are all in a single warehouse somewhere to please the End-User Monitoring program.


Wouldn't surprise me in the least bit either. Thus my wording.

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to Shkval25)
Post #: 22
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 11:10:25 AM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline
quote:

This video was from a few days ago - I think what it really shows is inexperienced drivers but it is an example of what the mud can do to a company of modern wide tracked tanks. https://twitter.com/StephVisual/status/1492637009281785856?s=20&t=mSCBGdh0hHcyiNa8lRi2Rg



That's four dead tank crews if that was for keeps.

_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 23
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 11:11:25 AM   
thewood1

 

Posts: 6529
Joined: 11/27/2005
Status: offline 		"Russian MBTs are light and have wide tracks and low ground pressure"

Ground pressure from wiki, FAS, and a few other sites...

T-72B - 0.85 kg/cm2
T-80 - .92 kg/cm2, not sure which variant
Panzer III - 0.62 kg/cm2
M1A2 - 1.0 to 1.1 kg/cm2 depending on armor layout

Ground pressure isn't the final say in operating in muddy condition. Torque, track design, experience, etc. play a role, but a Panzer III has a big advantage over a modern tank in actual contact with the ground.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Gunner98)
Post #: 24
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 12:23:07 PM   
BeirutDude


Posts: 2625
Joined: 4/27/2013
From: Jacksonville, FL, USA
Status: offline 		And then there is this analysis from the AP...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-russias-ukraine-plans-how-much-does-the-mud-matter/ar-AATP04h


_____________________________

"Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem."
PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN, 1985

I was Navy, but Assigned TAD to the 24th MAU Hq in Beirut. By far the finest period of my service!

(in reply to BeirutDude)
Post #: 25
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 6:05:56 PM   
tiag

 

Posts: 91
Joined: 6/21/2018
Status: offline 		Meanwhile the USAF continues collecting info on the EOB of Russia. The Rivet Joints, RQ-4s, UH-60M, the F-16 from Spangdahlem, etc...have been very active. It is amazing how long the RQ-4s keep monitoring the border region.



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Post #: 26
RE: 2/12 Weather Conditions not optimal for Russian action - 2/14/2022 6:29:24 PM   
Gunner98

 

Posts: 5508
Joined: 4/29/2005
From: The Great White North!
Status: offline
quote:

RQ-4s keep monitoring the border region


The USAF Fact sheet says the have an endurance of 34 hrs - in the DB at a med alt cruse speed of 200kts and a range of 4350 it gives them ~21.5 hrs but their ferry range is double that so....

But they are slooooowwww.

_____________________________

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Post #: 27
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