Slitherine

quote:

Originally posted by Alexandra: However, if Hitler declares war on the US in Dec, 1941, the war will be over in late 45/early 46 (won by the US with atomic bombs), unless the western allies would make something *very* stupid (like trying to land in Calais in early 1942 or something like this). This, IMO, is a very iffy statement. Why? For a number of reasons. First, politically. The use of the bomb anywhere in Europe would have, at that time, and possibly still today, would have been polical suicide for the President and his party. Why? It would have killed a very large number of civilians who, unlike the Japanese, were part of an ethnic group with a very large voting block in the US. At that time, the German-American vote still controlled most of the mid-west, and that huge vote alone would have been lost to the party saying 'yes' to a bomb. Second, the bomb itself. One must remember some things about it. First of all, there were only two. Second of all, it did limited to no actual military damage to Japan. What it did do was shock the Japanese military enough that thier Government was able to convince that that surrender was the best way to end a lost war. However, a Germany that held all of Eurpoe, except, arguably Sweden, the UK, Switzerland, and the Iberian Peninsula would not have had that same political shock effect ripple through it. Even if Hitler himself had been killed, there's no reason to belive that command would not have passed smoothly - as, it in fact, did, in '45 to Admiral Doenitz when Hitler killed himself (if he did, but that's another thread). Thirdly, Militarily - With no Russia in the war, there are hundreds of thousands of German and German Allied troops that are not tied down in the East. That means that the massive hemmorage of German strength does not happen - 80 percent of German equipment and 75 percent of thier manpower losses, after all, occured on the OstFront. With no OstFront, it's quite plauabile to assume that Rommel's dream of a double envelopment of the MidEast comes true, perhaps led by Manstein or Kesselring. Given that, it's unlikely that Torch succeeds, as the French are less likely to side with the allies, and the Dak could be reinforced with all sorts of units. Even if Torch succeeds, Overlord fails. After all, with full air superiority, and facind 2nd and 3rd rate troops, one American Beach nearly failed as it was - and that one was the only one where any 1st rate troops were. Put veterans on all the beaches, and give the Luftwaffe back the planes it lost, in the real war, in Russia, and the landing probably fails. In all liklihood, if Russia falls in '41/42, the best the Allies can hope for is a Korean War style truce, that ends up lasting for generations. Alex