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Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/25/2004 5:07:28 PM   
ADavidB


Posts: 2464
Joined: 9/17/2001
From: Toronto, Canada
Status: offline 		I have a number of questions regarding the effect on the game of the Russians becoming activated:

How much does the Japanese player actually lose in terms of resources and victory points if he pulls troops out of Manchuria and lets the Russians in?

Are there Russian naval assets that allow the Russian troops to actually threated Japan?

Are there Russian air assets that can threaten Japan?

How much in the way of supply/political points do the Russian units have available to them?

If the Russians are activated, particularly in 1941/1942, do they take away from Allied supply and will they need to be supplied?

If the Russians are activated in 1941/1942, do they get additional units beyond the initial units on the map as the war progresses?

Are Russian units withdrawn in 1942 if they don't become activated?

I'm trying to figure out if the Russian threat really does threaten the Japanese player, or if it can be "ignored". In essence, can the Japanese player take advantage of his Manchurian troops early on or are the potential consequences severe enough to make such a decision unfavorable in the game?

Thanks -

Dave Baranyi
Post #: 1
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/25/2004 5:33:39 PM   
Mike Scholl

 

Posts: 9349
Joined: 1/1/2003
From: Kansas City, MO
Status: offline 		If I recall correctly, Manchuria was Japan's major "domestic" source of Iron Ore, as
well as several other strategic resources. So it would be akin to abandoning all
hope of future production..., and probably not a good idea.

(in reply to ADavidB)
Post #: 2
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/25/2004 7:36:41 PM   
Brady


Posts: 10701
Joined: 10/25/2002
From: Oregon,USA
Status: offline 		What I understand from post made by Testers in the past when adreasing simmliar questions is that.

To keep the Russians at bay the Japanese nead to keep a certain number of troops stationed in Manchuria, and I suspect Schaklen and the Kuriel Islands.

The Russians Historicaly Had Ships and Planes that could threaten Japan, but they did not Invade untill Aug. 45, when they did it was a freaking Blitz like nothing sean before, they sweapt through manchuria and all the way to the Yellow sea prety much and into Korea, to almost all the Kuriel Islands and Schaklen in a couple weeks.

One thing I am not to clear on is if they become available in Aug. 45 or not.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 3
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/25/2004 8:47:32 PM   
ADavidB


Posts: 2464
Joined: 9/17/2001
From: Toronto, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

If I recall correctly, Manchuria was Japan's major "domestic" source of Iron Ore, as
well as several other strategic resources. So it would be akin to abandoning all
hope of future production..., and probably not a good idea.


That is true from the historical p.o.v., as well as the fact that a million or so Japanse "colonists" moved to "Manchuko" prior to WW2, but I'm asking from the perspective of the game mechanics.

Thanks -

Dave Baranyi

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 4
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/25/2004 8:57:16 PM   
ADavidB


Posts: 2464
Joined: 9/17/2001
From: Toronto, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Brady

What I understand from post made by Testers in the past when adreasing simmliar questions is that.

To keep the Russians at bay the Japanese nead to keep a certain number of troops stationed in Manchuria, and I suspect Schaklen and the Kuriel Islands.

The Russians Historicaly Had Ships and Planes that could threaten Japan, but they did not Invade untill Aug. 45, when they did it was a freaking Blitz like nothing sean before, they sweapt through manchuria and all the way to the Yellow sea prety much and into Korea, to almost all the Kuriel Islands and Schaklen in a couple weeks.

One thing I am not to clear on is if they become available in Aug. 45 or not.


What I am wondering most about is Dec 41/early 42. One of the alpha AARs reported on an attack by the Japanese player on the Russians, with very unpleasent combat results for the Japanese player. But what I am wondering is what would happen if the Japanese player just pulled "everyone" out of Manchuria in order to use them elsewhere when the rest of the opposition isn't very strong.

So part of what I am asking is how much of the depth that is in place for the rest of the Allied forces in WitP is in place for the Russian forces. If the Japanese player enables the Russian forces to be activated early by, for example, reducing troop strength in Manchuria in early 1942, does the Allied player have similar capabilities/requirements in using the Russian forces as he does for the other Allied forces?

So do the Russians have their own supply sources or does the Allied player have to send supplies across the North Pacific? (No easy task in 1942.) Can the Russian troops be used in amphibious assaults against Japan? Do the Russians have tactical bombers to use against Japanese targets? If the game point and resource point losses for Manchuria don't deter the Japanese player, and if the Russian forces can't be used to directly threaten Japan, than this could become a significant "alternate history" scenario.

BTW - if the good folks at Matrix/2x3 would like me to test this out for them, I'd be more than happy to consider a beta agreement with them...

Dave Baranyi

(in reply to Brady)
Post #: 5
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/25/2004 10:46:12 PM   
Pascal_slith


Posts: 1651
Joined: 8/20/2003
From: back in Commiefornia
Status: offline 		Mogami has posted a reply on the importance of Korea and Manchukuo in Japan's production capacity in the Mogami vs. Mr. Frag thread.

_____________________________

So much WitP and so little time to play.... :-(


(in reply to ADavidB)
Post #: 6
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 12:21:56 AM   
Halsey

 

Posts: 5069
Joined: 2/7/2004
Status: offline 		Does anyone know how the Chinese communists and nationalist armies are modeled? Or is there just the Chinese? I am just curious, since they fought each other when there were no Japanese around to fight. Later on they declared a truce, but they still hated each others guts.

_____________________________


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Post #: 7
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 12:54:55 AM   
Mr.Frag


Posts: 13410
Joined: 12/18/2002
From: Purgatory
Status: offline 		Messing with Russia is just something you do not do. Period.

You will do whatever is required to stall them entering the game no matter what problems it causes for you. Triggering war means Japan will be removed from Asia completely.

Japan needs the production there to be able to play the game so consider it high on the things one does just to end a game quickly.

(in reply to Halsey)
Post #: 8
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 1:17:47 AM   
Raverdave


Posts: 6520
Joined: 2/8/2002
From: Melb. Australia
Status: offline 		In on of the test games between Luskan and myself I decided to launch an attack on Roosha on the 8th of December just to see what would happen.......I recall that one of my divisions upon hitting the rooshan lines simply VANISHED. One minute it was there reporting that it was about to start it's attack, then nothing *poof* nothing they simply were completely wiped out. Mind you this was an extreme example, but the message was very very clear....don't fcuk with the Rooshans.

_____________________________




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Post #: 9
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 2:15:19 AM   
ADavidB


Posts: 2464
Joined: 9/17/2001
From: Toronto, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag

Messing with Russia is just something you do not do. Period.

You will do whatever is required to stall them entering the game no matter what problems it causes for you. Triggering war means Japan will be removed from Asia completely.

Japan needs the production there to be able to play the game so consider it high on the things one does just to end a game quickly.


I guess that I'll have to wait for the game to check this out. I realize that the Russian divisions in Siberia were tough and had already beaten the Japanese army a couple of times, but I am still interested in seeing if the troops and the rest of the Russian East are modelled in a manner similar to that of the rest of the Allies. Obviously, Russia in December 1941 was a lot different than Russia in 1945, so I'm interested to see if those differences are modelled in the game.

As far as the production goes, if that is the key factor, than so be it. I'm just curious about how much of a factor it really is.

Thanks for the comments -

Dave Baranyi

(in reply to Mr.Frag)
Post #: 10
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 2:19:29 AM   
ADavidB


Posts: 2464
Joined: 9/17/2001
From: Toronto, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Raverdave

In on of the test games between Luskan and myself I decided to launch an attack on Roosha on the 8th of December just to see what would happen.......I recall that one of my divisions upon hitting the rooshan lines simply VANISHED. One minute it was there reporting that it was about to start it's attack, then nothing *poof* nothing they simply were completely wiped out. Mind you this was an extreme example, but the message was very very clear....don't fcuk with the Rooshans.


I remember that AAR - it was quite "educational". But what I am thinking of entails pulling the Japanese armies out of Manchuria. If the Russians can only mech around Manchuria and not effectively attack Japan, and if the production capability there isn't a seriously big factor for the Japanese, then that is a similar scenario to the UV Allied scenario of pulling out of NG.

On the other hand, if the Russian capability is modelled in 1941/1942 to be the same or similar to that of August 1945, then there is a problem in the game data that should be fixed.

Thanks for the reply -

Dave Baranyi

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 11
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 2:21:29 AM   
ADavidB


Posts: 2464
Joined: 9/17/2001
From: Toronto, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Pascal

Mogami has posted a reply on the importance of Korea and Manchukuo in Japan's production capacity in the Mogami vs. Mr. Frag thread.


Thanks - I'll dig it out and see what Mogami has said.

Dave Baranyi

(in reply to Pascal_slith)
Post #: 12
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 2:26:48 AM   
Brady


Posts: 10701
Joined: 10/25/2002
From: Oregon,USA
Status: offline 		An interesting point has been raised hear, and one I inquired about some time ago and never realy got an answer on. That being the size and oob of the Russian forces in the east, they veried during the war, and was woundering how this was represented in WiTP as well. I asume I-16's upgrade to Yak's or to La-5's later in the war, and that their Naval assests do as well? And Tanks guns ect...

< Message edited by Brady -- 4/26/2004 12:29:30 AM >

(in reply to ADavidB)
Post #: 13
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 2:56:01 AM   
Mr.Frag


Posts: 13410
Joined: 12/18/2002
From: Purgatory
Status: offline 		There are 20 divisions worth of strength there, and these are REAL divisions, not China quality troops. These are the troops directly on the ground when the game starts. These guys will steam roll over what happens to be on the ground on Japan's side on the border, really the only thing that will slow them down is the simple fact that it takes time to move over the ground.

(in reply to Brady)
Post #: 14
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 3:20:09 AM   
Mike Scholl

 

Posts: 9349
Joined: 1/1/2003
From: Kansas City, MO
Status: offline 		This whole question of "abandoning Manchuria and/or China" is strictly a gamey
mechanic at best. Japan pulled a larger tonnage of "vital war resources" from
Manchuria and Korea than she did from the SRA. If the economic model is cor-
rect, the loss of these areas would "crash" the Japanese economy even faster
than not capturing the SRA. If maintaining the "Northern Resource Area" isn't
just as vital as gaining the "Southern Resource Area", then the game isn't an
accurate potrayal of reality. I'm beginning to wonder if this isn't where the Japs
are gaining the "extra" shipping I keep noticing.

As for letting the Russians into the War unnecessarily, it's a silly notion. Having
some extra troops in New Guinea and Burma is hardly going to make up for al-
lowing the Russians to advance to the Straits of Tsushima. Even if they are no
threat to invade Japan for years, a few squadrons of the Red Air Force at Pusan
could make life for the Japanese Merchant Marine a living he11. And if they allow
some basing for the US (which Stalin could "swap" for more lend lease aid) things
could really get serious. Nothing the Japanese could possibly gain is worth the
real loss such a policy would have cost them.

(in reply to Mr.Frag)
Post #: 15
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 3:44:14 AM   
j campbell


Posts: 283
Joined: 1/20/2001
From: Grosse Pointe, MI
Status: offline 		Mike-

as i think you posted beofre am further i reiterate, the japanese would under no conditions abandon manchuko-the rest of china is a whole different story but they went to war over not losing manchuko-which they thought the Americans had told them to abandon as well when the final round of negotiations with Hull were underway.

Furthermore, there was just too much industry and resources in manchuko to take the risk of leaving undefended.

the Russian far east army was tough but once they knew the japanese would move south they had stripped alot of the quality divisions from the far east to stave off what was possibly defeat at Moscow. i doubt the russians would have commenced offensive operations with this left over force.

john

_____________________________

"the willow branch but bends beneath the snow"

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 16
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 3:51:03 AM   
Raverdave


Posts: 6520
Joined: 2/8/2002
From: Melb. Australia
Status: offline 		Beware the Rooshans J Campbell, even their stripped down divs will give any foolish IJN plyer a strong case of heartburn.

_____________________________




Never argue with an idiot, he will only drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.

(in reply to j campbell)
Post #: 17
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 8:51:20 AM   
Xargun

 

Posts: 3690
Joined: 2/14/2004
From: Near Columbus, Ohio
Status: offline 		From my limited knowledge of the areas I believe Japan will pull like 75%+ of its resources from Manchuria / Korea / Manchuko... Where the SRA was mostly for oil and rubber. Losing control of either should be the end of Japan's production - at least in the later game, once all the stockpiles are gone through.

Xargun

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 18
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 9:43:32 AM   
Subchaser


Posts: 1201
Joined: 11/15/2002
Status: offline 		Several months ago I was trying to convince WitP team that there is something wrong with Soviet OB for 41/42, if Red army can easily beat Japanese so early in war. I’ve tried to find hard data to back up my claims and create real Soviet early war OB, but I failed. Every source with OB on this subject uses old data which was heavily edited in soviet times and thus have no real value, although there are several sources, on particular divisions, which contain quite interesting information from recently opened archives, and this info have little in common with info published previously. Divisions of Far East front were paper tigers during ’41-’43, they were used as reinforcement source, their real combat value was close to light regiment equipped with obsolete weapons and very poorly trained men. With such forces, the very idea of advance into Manchuria in 1941-42 was a pure nonsense, the lack or resources made even defense of Primorie region quite problematic. Truth can also be found in various memoirs of former commanding officers of Far East front, unfortunately, as I said, these do not provide any certain numbers.

_____________________________


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Post #: 19
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 9:56:41 AM   
Raverdave


Posts: 6520
Joined: 2/8/2002
From: Melb. Australia
Status: offline 		The Russians seemed to have no problems back in'39, cost the Japanese in excess of 30,000 men IIRC.

_____________________________




Never argue with an idiot, he will only drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.

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Post #: 20
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 10:02:16 AM   
Subchaser


Posts: 1201
Joined: 11/15/2002
Status: offline 		In ’39 there were no Germans near Moscow and on Volga river. It’s different story. In 1941 all these forces, I mean men and machines, not units designations, were on the Ost front.

_____________________________


(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 21
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 10:27:42 AM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		Hi I think they would be on the 3anaAHo (West) front. Manchuria is the East Front for the Soviets.

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I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to Subchaser)
Post #: 22
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 10:28:11 AM   
Luskan

 

Posts: 1897
Joined: 7/11/2002
From: Down Under
Status: offline 		If the japs can use torpedoes in port (gasp!) and 800kg bombs (double gasp) and beat china, they should also be able to take moscow by 43.

If not the game is broken. - oops - I meant the historical simulation!

Ok - all trolling aside, the sheer number of russian units, troops and squadrons in such proximity in asia . . . well only the masochist would mess with the russians even slightly. I'm in favour of just having the game end when the russians enter - you aren't going to have any fun as the ijn after they do!

_____________________________

With dancing Bananas and Storm Troopers who needs BBs?

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 23
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 10:29:41 AM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		Hi, No I think they are looking to invade the Soviet far East and capture more oil and resource and heavy industry.

I'm not sure what they plan on doing in 1943.

< Message edited by Mogami -- 4/26/2004 3:31:30 AM >

_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to Luskan)
Post #: 24
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 10:40:42 AM   
Subchaser


Posts: 1201
Joined: 11/15/2002
Status: offline
quote:

Hi I think they would be on the 3anaAHo (West) front. Manchuria is the East Front for the Soviets.


You didn’t spell it right Mogami, although you’re right of course.

< Message edited by Subchaser -- 4/26/2004 11:59:12 AM >

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Post #: 25
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 10:57:11 AM   
Subchaser


Posts: 1201
Joined: 11/15/2002
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Luskan

If the japs can use torpedoes in port (gasp!) and 800kg bombs (double gasp) and beat china, they should also be able to take moscow by 43.


Well Moscow by 43 is too much, but capture of Soviet Far East in 1942, at least part of it, should be possible. However this should trigger major Soviet offensive in late ’44 or even earlier. So, after all, you’re right, attack of USSR means unavoidable defeat for IJN as soon as in mid ‘44.

_____________________________


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Post #: 26
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 4:31:41 PM   
Damien Thorn

 

Posts: 1107
Joined: 7/24/2003
Status: offline 		A Japanese invasion of the soviet union should have a chance for Soviet forces being redeployed from the European theater to the far east. Then, there should be a check to see if the loss of these forces causes the fall of Moscow. If that happens then the USSR should pull almost everything they have in the far east out and send it to fight the Germans before the USSR gets completely conquered.

(in reply to Subchaser)
Post #: 27
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 4:45:55 PM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		Hi, The Soviets would not have to risk losing Moscow. The Japanese can only go so far before they too run out of supply. At the farthest point the Japanese reach the Soviets will only need a thin line that grows stronger over time.

_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to Damien Thorn)
Post #: 28
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 7:09:30 PM   
sven6345789

 

Posts: 1050
Joined: 3/8/2004
From: Sandviken, Sweden
Status: offline 		point is, if the japanese wouldn't have signed a treaty with the soviet union in 1941, they never would have ventured south in the first place. it is correct that the OOB of the soviet forces was not much to write folks home about in 1942-1943, since the siberian divisions which gave the japanese quite a beating at nomonhan had gone to fight the germans.
But then again the Divisions attacking the germans during Dec. 41 weren't that well equipped either. An attack on the soviet union by japan would have cost enormous ammounts of troops, supply and air groups. These forces will be missed in the south.
Taking up a fight against another enemy won't make sense, esspecially since one of the already existent enemies will slash you to bits in 1944.
The resources you need can be gained in the south much more easier.

_____________________________

Bougainville, November 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. It rained today.

Letter from a U.S. Marine,November 1943

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 29
RE: Russians/Manchuria - Impact? - 4/26/2004 10:06:28 PM   
mdiehl

 

Posts: 5998
Joined: 10/21/2000
Status: offline
quote:

A Japanese invasion of the soviet union should have a chance for Soviet forces being redeployed from the European theater to the far east. Then, there should be a check to see if the loss of these forces causes the fall of Moscow. If that happens then the USSR should pull almost everything they have in the far east out and send it to fight the Germans before the USSR gets completely conquered.


Classic. A Japanese invasion of the USSR should stimulate two ineffectual countermarches resulting in a victory for both the Germans and Japanese. Riiiiiight.

A few basic problems with the argument. 1. The Germans didn't have an ice cube's chance in hell of conquering "completely" the USSR, even after their best days in summer 1941. Their supply train was not up to the task of sustaining the Wehrmacht, short about 30% of its men and material after 6 months, in Ukraine. 2. The Soviets would almost certainly have had more than sufficient reserves to deal with both threats concurrently. At most, this scenario reduces the scale of the Soviet counteroffensive following the relief of Stalingrad. It may mean that the rag tag remnants of German 6th AG escape to bolster the late war defense of the Reich, but it's not going to help the Japanese one iota, and Germany isn't going to conquer anything more than they seized by late October 1942. 3. Frankly, the USSR has lots of barren waste in Siberia to temporarily lend to Japan. Let the IJA in, let a big logistical commitment be made, then grind the whole thing up into shards. Is there a Russian phrase for "Tar Baby?"

_____________________________

Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?

(in reply to sven6345789)
Post #: 30
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