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Can Japan Win???

 
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Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 3:40:13 PM   
ctid98


Posts: 146
Joined: 6/19/2003
Status: offline 		All,

Yesterday I asked for peoples opinion on an Allied strategy, today I'm curious about Japans.

Everybody seems convinced Japan has no chance, but what if??? Take a look at history.

The Coral Sea, Japan lost 1 CV and had 2 others damaged, America 1 lost and another heavily damaged but back out in 3 days, nice job! At Midway, the Japanese taken by surprise and lost 4-1. Everybody argrees this was the turning point in the Pacific.

Now if you re-create the same operations in the game but, Japan doesn't loose a CV at Coral and have 2 damaged and also manages to sink the Yorktown as well the Midway operation would have odds of 7-2 in Japans favour. So, now you can take the island and deal with the American CV's as planned. The Allies with no major naval forces can't really do much to stop Japan.

If you could get to this position in the game and had a pair on you big enough to try for an invasion of Hawaii could you force America right back to the West Coast.

If, and I admit its a BIG if you could find yourself in such a position can you force Americas surrender and win as Japan (or would you have to take a port on the West Coast for this?), or do you have to sit and wait for the onslaught to commence from the Allies, admittedly with a huge sh$t eating grin and serious gloating power!

Later

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Post #: 1
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 3:49:13 PM   
Radzy

 

Posts: 86
Joined: 5/19/2004
From: Warsaw, Poland
Status: offline 		As it was mentioned in other thread.

It is almost impossible for Japs to win the war. However they can win the game.

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"When they come a wull staun ma groon
Staun ma groon al nae be afraid
Thoughts awe hame tak awa ma fear
Sweat an bluid hide ma veil awe tears
Ains a year say a prayer faur me
Close yir een an remember me"
Sgt. MacKenzie

(in reply to ctid98)
Post #: 2
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 3:51:03 PM   
ctid98


Posts: 146
Joined: 6/19/2003
Status: offline 		Sorry, missed that one, been away from the forums for a while.

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Post #: 3
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 3:52:45 PM   
Radzy

 

Posts: 86
Joined: 5/19/2004
From: Warsaw, Poland
Status: offline 		Thats ok. Even I know it was discussion about that and can't directly point in which thread

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"When they come a wull staun ma groon
Staun ma groon al nae be afraid
Thoughts awe hame tak awa ma fear
Sweat an bluid hide ma veil awe tears
Ains a year say a prayer faur me
Close yir een an remember me"
Sgt. MacKenzie

(in reply to ctid98)
Post #: 4
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 9:18:55 PM   
Xargun

 

Posts: 3690
Joined: 2/14/2004
From: Near Columbus, Ohio
Status: offline 		Personally I think the key to winning the game for Japan would be a lightning strike at Hawaii. If they somehow capture Pearl (not sure what kind of defenses are present early in the war) they would destroy EVERY US ship in port.. Not only the major combat vessels (BBs and CAs) but all the support ships too (has to be lots of Subs, cargo ships, tenders, DDs, etc...). I think this would be such a great benefit for the Japanese, that it should be attempted (once again if possible - not sure what defenses hawaii has).

Even a loss of a CV or three in the attack would be worth it to destroy that many allied ships.

Xargun

(in reply to Radzy)
Post #: 5
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 9:21:05 PM   
Nikademus


Posts: 25684
Joined: 5/27/2000
From: Alien spacecraft
Status: offline 		only if the Allied player leaves all those warships sitting in port. I doubt that would happen in game.

Capturing the base would require alot of troops and would probably take a while to acomplish now that the LCU rules have been beefed up.

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Post #: 6
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 9:21:33 PM   
Fallschirmjager


Posts: 6793
Joined: 3/18/2002
From: Chattanooga, Tennessee
Status: offline 		Only chance Japan has is to do so well in the early war and dig in and form multiple layers of defense.
In PBEM the Allied player will just give up.

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Post #: 7
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 9:22:18 PM   
Xargun

 

Posts: 3690
Joined: 2/14/2004
From: Near Columbus, Ohio
Status: offline 		I am referring to within the first few days of the game - even a non-historical start.. I know its gamey.. but might give the Japanese that extra punch they need.

Xargun

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Post #: 8
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 9:22:21 PM   
j campbell


Posts: 283
Joined: 1/20/2001
From: Grosse Pointe, MI
Status: offline 		Xargun-more importantly it would have led to the capture (most likely) of a large number of US naval staff and denial of the base for US purposes. i am not certain of the US defenses on the island nor japan's amphibious landing capabilities but i can pretty safely guess that this hypothetical operation would have ended in disaster.

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Post #: 9
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 9:40:43 PM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		What would stop the USN ships from simply sailing away? There are 2 full divisions in PH on Dec 7th (plus other troops) You can't take a non atoll hex in just one turn.
As soon as Japanese TF sailed into PH it would have to engage the CD and mines. The next night every USN surface combat ship would be in a TF in PH and there would be major surface battles. USN ships would just go back into port to rearm, repair. Japanese ships would have to make trip all the way back to Saipan to reach a port large enough for them to put the fires out and stop flooding. (Taking Midway does not help because the port there is only a 1)
The 2 USA divisions are dug in level 5. So the Japanese need to land 7-1 odds or spend a week getting the fort level to 0 where 2-1 will win.

I tried this a long time ago in testing. I captured PH but 1/3 of IJN surface ships were sunk and over 100 transports were lost. PH defense has been imporved since then. Also it was just a test so it did not matter that nothing was occuring in SRA.

< Message edited by Mogami -- 5/26/2004 2:46:57 PM >

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I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

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Post #: 10
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 9:55:40 PM   
grraven2004


Posts: 273
Joined: 3/4/2004
From: Cuyahoga Falls OH
Status: offline 		Even if Japan could capture Hawaii and a port on the west coast how are they going to be able to keep them supplied?
Also if you play the grand campaign the US idustiral might will eventually roll over Japan. In game terms I would be glad to survive as the IJN and force the Allies into a ceasefire

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Post #: 11
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 9:59:28 PM   
kaleun

 

Posts: 5145
Joined: 5/29/2002
From: Colorado
Status: offline 		That was exactly the japanese plan

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Post #: 12
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 10:01:00 PM   
Nikademus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Xargun

I am referring to within the first few days of the game - even a non-historical start.. I know its gamey.. but might give the Japanese that extra punch they need.

Xargun


Mogami pretty much already asked it....so i'll take a different tack. You are aware that on Turn 2, the Allied player can sortie every ship not sunk from Oahu, either to fight, or to flee?

Or were you reffering to the crippled ships? Even they "might" escape given that once FLT damage is downed sufficiently they could be put into a TF and attempt to crawl away. The chances for intercept would be good though.

Keep in mind that in the game, FLT damage can always be quickly repaired if in a large port. Realize this isn't 100% realistic but its a holdover from UV days. SYS damage of course can take a LOOONG time to repair....particularily for large warships. Fleeing cripples with 80+% damage would be little more than floating targets.

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Post #: 13
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 10:37:59 PM   
Xargun

 

Posts: 3690
Joined: 2/14/2004
From: Near Columbus, Ohio
Status: offline 		I do not know the defenses of Pearl at all, and just going by the rule that all enemy ships in a captured port are imediately sunk.. So if by whim of god you managed to take Pearl on turn 1, all the US ships in port would not get a chance to escape, but they would all be destroyed by the game rules.. IRL they would simply sail away with as many of their crew that they could, but I'm talking in game.

If the US has 2 divisions on Pearl at game start, then Mogami is right. The Japanese have no chance on taking her in one turn.

Xargun

(in reply to Nikademus)
Post #: 14
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 10:47:48 PM   
freeboy

 

Posts: 9088
Joined: 5/16/2004
From: Colorado
Status: offline 		If you want to tweek the game to a really absurd level Japan could win.. can you imaging a mirror game covering the whole war? maybe one of the later campaigns..

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Post #: 15
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 10:55:21 PM   
Nikademus


Posts: 25684
Joined: 5/27/2000
From: Alien spacecraft
Status: offline 		yep. Even if the Japanese sent 10 divisions, they wouldn't land enough troops to be able to attack and take the base on the same turn. The IJN player would have to have TF's in place to intercept fleeing ships and there'd be a major gunfight at the OK corral

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Post #: 16
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:28:41 PM   
sven6345789

 

Posts: 1050
Joined: 3/8/2004
From: Sandviken, Sweden
Status: offline 		even if the japanese go for pearl, it would take all of their resources. therefore, nothing would happen in the SRA. therefore, the game would probably be over after 10 months (being the time japanese stockpiled supplies last).

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Post #: 17
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:30:23 PM   
kaleun

 

Posts: 5145
Joined: 5/29/2002
From: Colorado
Status: offline 		This has piqued my interest. I might just try it in a PBEM game

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Post #: 18
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:33:11 PM   
barbarrossa


Posts: 359
Joined: 3/25/2004
From: Shangri-La
Status: offline 		Would be extremely interesting to try.

WitP isn't going to be a "game", this is going to be a dream come true. I've wanted something like this since I was a little kid

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Post #: 19
RE: Can Frag Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:35:12 PM   
Nikademus


Posts: 25684
Joined: 5/27/2000
From: Alien spacecraft
Status: offline 		the real question should be,

Can Frag Win?

I already know the answer to that one of course

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Post #: 20
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:35:44 PM   
kaleun

 

Posts: 5145
Joined: 5/29/2002
From: Colorado
Status: offline 		We need to start working on a nine step program.
My name is kaleun and I am a WITPaholic.
We can have meetings and such.


I am not an alcoholic
I am a drunk
alcoholics go to meetings

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Appear at places to which he must hasten; move swiftly where he does not expect you.
Sun Tzu

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Post #: 21
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:37:56 PM   
barbarrossa


Posts: 359
Joined: 3/25/2004
From: Shangri-La
Status: offline 		Aye, Herr Kaleun

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Post #: 22
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:43:56 PM   
Fallschirmjager


Posts: 6793
Joined: 3/18/2002
From: Chattanooga, Tennessee
Status: offline 		If Japan can do well enough in the early war, she might have a chance landing in Aussie land. This would be alot better than taking PH since you have a chance of capturing heavy industry.

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Post #: 23
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:50:34 PM   
kaleun

 

Posts: 5145
Joined: 5/29/2002
From: Colorado
Status: offline 		But would you get to drink Mai Tais in the Honolulu Hilton (Or whatever the name of the hotel was)?

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Appear at places to which he must hasten; move swiftly where he does not expect you.
Sun Tzu

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Post #: 24
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:52:01 PM   
Fallschirmjager


Posts: 6793
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From: Chattanooga, Tennessee
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: kaleun

But would you get to drink Mai Tais in the Honolulu Hilton (Or whatever the name of the hotel was)?


War is nothing but a series of tradeoffs

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Post #: 25
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/26/2004 11:52:22 PM   
barbarrossa


Posts: 359
Joined: 3/25/2004
From: Shangri-La
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Fallschirmjager

If Japan can do well enough in the early war, she might have a chance landing in Aussie land. This would be alot better than taking PH since you have a chance of capturing heavy industry.


Don't give that away!

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"It take a brave soldier to be a coward in the Red Army" -- Uncle Joe

"Is it you or I that commands 9th Army, My Fuhrer?" -- Model

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Post #: 26
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/27/2004 10:42:51 AM   
ctid98


Posts: 146
Joined: 6/19/2003
Status: offline 		Well, I guess the answer to my question is "no you can't"

Maybe a push into India or Australia would give better results, or should I say deny the inevitable a little bit longer....

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Post #: 27
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/27/2004 8:25:21 PM   
rogueusmc


Posts: 4583
Joined: 2/8/2004
From: Texas...what country are YOU from?
Status: offline
quote:

But would you get to drink Mai Tais in the Honolulu Hilton (Or whatever the name of the hotel was)?

The Royal Hawaiian Hotel.......big pink sucker....can't see it hardly from the beach anymore but it is still there.....used to be the only one on the beach once upon a time.

< Message edited by rogueusmc -- 5/28/2004 12:26:14 AM >

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RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/28/2004 3:01:21 PM   
highblooded

 

Posts: 67
Joined: 5/27/2004
Status: offline 		Hello all!
I must admit I too am intrigued by the thought of a 'what if' invasion of Pearl Harbor.
Here's some thoughts, info and questions.

Pearl defenses- approximately 2 divs. I believe Mostly at Oahu( but they should be weak in readiness- can anyone post an approximate Combat Value for these?)
Great cd's- 2x twin turrets with 16" guns one twin turret 12" guns that I know of- unknown number of smaller artillery ( can anyone post composition of these?)
Huge fleet- but most heavies should be damaged by surprise attack.
Lots of air but most of this will be destroyed or damaged by surprise attack.

Questions- what Japanese army/naval LCU's are available that can reach Pearl and how long to get there? Can they reach it with the "magic' movement allowances allowed on first turn or will it still take awhile to get there? I'm assuming at least 2 divisions probably more(4?).
It will take weeks to conquer Oahu, would cd's be hitting them the whole time or only during unload. If inf could land on dec 8 or 9th. cv's wil have damaged most heavies and bombardment groups could take out air and more fleet assests with surface tfs damaging more. of couse losses could skyrocket. I'm assuming that the entire Japaneese fleet would have to be involved or at least all cv's and cvl's( staging multiple tf's over the whole period so transports and surface units have cover from allied cv raids)
Do other Islands in the hawaii chain have air bases or port facilities? Maybe these could go first allowing zeros or nells to fly out from them.
The attack would have to be launched during first week of game, Hawaii recieved it's first reinforcements on dec 16 historically. by the end of Dec they will be pretty much secured and safe from any landing forces.

Obviously this is extremely ahistoric as the fleet would never commit to such an ambitious plan although they did advocate the single great battle theory ( of course on thier own turf) but we are only playing a game.... right?

The posibilities are interesting though, the loss of hawaii would have had on extreme impact on allied efforts. But is it worth it to not to be able to invade Phillipines (or possibly even minimizing malay assaults- although army air and Japanese army units may perhaps still allow malay to continue.
Delaying Philipines will make it a tough nut to crack once you finally are able to get around to it ( ie. all troops at 100% readiness and additional fortification)
Of course supplying Pearl will be a constant thorn in Japans side and fleet assets will always have to be stationed in area, denying their use elsewhere indefinately.

Mogami has stated that he lost 1/3 of his fleet, costly indeed. But how large was the fleet and what did it consist of? How many Lcu's and where did they come from? where other areas still able to be attacked? how long did it take?

Would it be necessary to alter scenario to make this possible? Is there sufficient Transport and surface forces available within movement area. 100% preparation would certainly be neede for Lcu's.

So what do you folks think... is it worth it?

(in reply to ctid98)
Post #: 29
RE: Can Japan Win??? - 5/28/2004 3:38:35 PM   
Rainerle

 

Posts: 463
Joined: 7/24/2002
From: Burghausen/Bavaria
Status: offline 		Hi
is it historical that PH is mined from the beginning ?
I'm getting that notion when reading Mogamis post!

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Post #: 30
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