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RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun

 
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RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 7:19:20 AM   
dereck


Posts: 2800
Joined: 9/7/2004
From: Romulus, MI
Status: offline 		I didn't intend my post to be negative and if it was I apologize. It is definitely to the Japanese player's advantage to come up with a strategy to win before the industrial might of the American player can turn it into a game of attrition.

I've never played the Japanese player so the only strategy I ever have used has been US which has been to stay alive until I start out producing the Japanese.

Sorry about flaming you Hirohito - it definitely wasn't my intention.

_____________________________

PO2 US Navy (1980-1986);
USS Midway CV-41 (1981-1984)
Whidbey Island, WA (1984-1986)
Naval Reserve (1986-1992)

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 31
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 8:25:26 AM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		"Attack that which can not be defended, and defend that which cannot be attacked"

Hi, While I am waiting for a PBEM turn to arrive I want to chew on this for a while and compare notes.

Attack that which cannot be defended is simple enough. It simply means exploit a weakness.

Defend that which cannot be attacked was tricky at first untilI realized that great commanders are always doing just that.

Wolfe at Quebec climbed up an undefended approch. It was undenfended because it could not be attacked. (or so it was thought)

Inchon, The Japanese in Malaya often flanked the enemy down impassable routes, the Ardennes several times. Look Out Mountain

Just find a place the enemy feels is so secure it does not require defending and see if you can move there undetected. Once there you might have turned the positions he is defending.

The danger is he might be right. Going where he thinks it silly might be silly. You have to recon to find out but not alert him what you are looking for.

Market Garden is an example of trying to go where the enemy would not be defending because it could not be attacked only to discover he was defending it.

So if you see recon planes over a base you don't think needs defending you might be getting a warning that the enemy is considering trying the impossible and if you let him he will make it work.

Japanese who don't keep a Home Defense might find US CV bombing Japan one day out of the blue.
That base that the enemy can't touch might be the first place he tries to go. If it works it is only because you considered what was possible impossible and you win wars by making what is not possible an accomplished fact.

From Japanese point of view in WITP The SRA is a done deal (attacking what cannot be defended) However outside that a problem appears. The Allies are defending everything vital. Even the areas Japan cannot reach. There are plenty of "can't be defended" But no
"can't be attacked " that are not defended. All the "can't be attacked" that are undefended bases are Japanese

_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to dereck)
Post #: 32
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 8:52:25 AM   
WiTP_Dude


Posts: 1434
Joined: 7/3/2004
Status: offline 		I also apologize if I was out of line. We've all had some silly ideas with this game at one time or another.


(in reply to dereck)
Post #: 33
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 11:38:42 AM   
Central Blue

 

Posts: 695
Joined: 8/20/2004
Status: offline 		golly [he said, rubbing his toe in the dirt, stareing at his dirty fingernails]

he seemed like he was up for it.

Sticking with the land war metaphors... I'm not sure that Lao Tzu or Stonewall Jackson or Lawrence of Arabia can save the Confederacy or Imperial Japan once the Yanks/Allies find enough commanders willing to drink the same brand of whiskey Grant did. And I doubt that Tzu, Jackson, or Lawrence would have come at anything through a place like Alaska, which had nothing, and threatened nothing, except the people living there.

It's one thing to build an AlCan highway to truck supplies to Alaska and quite another thing to build a highway from Alaska to Seattle to support a land invasion intent on hooking up with US 12 and US 101 for future exploits.

Whatever tactical advantage IJ can gain from the theories presented by Hirohito is already represented in IJs early rampage through the imperial territories of England, Netherlands, US--the French being off the table by the time the game starts.

But I think it is fair to say that there is no possible strategic application of the theory in the game or the reality of that time *after* IJ attacks the US.

I think Uncle Buck is on to the strategic application when he suggests that Japan go after the old empires and avoid confrontation with the US entirely. I don't know how that could be modeled in the game, but I'll bet a lot of IJ players would rather play against the Commonwealth and Netherlands without haveing to deal with the US.

Could the game editor create a similar sort of exclusion zone around the Phillippines as exists around the Soviet Union?

Could the game editor create a series of trip wires that would increase the chances for an outbreak of war between the US and IJ? Accidental attacks on reinforcement convoys to the Philippines?

Given US reluctance to help European nations after the onslaught of Germany, I sort of wonder what would drive the US to declare war on IJ in this alternate history.

_____________________________

USS St. Louis firing on Guam, July 1944. The Cardinals and Browns faced each other in the World Series that year

(in reply to WiTP_Dude)
Post #: 34
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 2:13:11 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		In my plan, you do conquer DEI, you just divide the conquest into two phases, phase I which begins on Dec 7, you conquer the "ring" beginning at Ambon Island and moving up through Timor, Flores, Somboewa, Bali, Java, and Sumatra. Coming from the Palau end you can provide air support from land bases and carriers returning from the extended PH operation. If you use McArthurs concept of using islands as permanent air craft carriers and have air craft ready to offload from transports as you take these islands over you never have to make landings outside of air cover.

In Phase II you take out Borneo and Celebes at your leisure. This puts all of DEI in your control quickly.

The oil and resources gained from conquering Inidia first make up for those not obtained in PI till later.

The number of bases that need to be stocked with planes and ships in the Alaska to NZ gauntlet are small, consisting of: Juneau, Midway, Johnson Island, Palmyra Island, Christmas Island, Guadalcanal, Santa Cruz Island, Espirito Santo, Efate, New Calendonia, and New Zealand. Now add to this the "ring" through DEI, Morotai, Ambon Island, Timor, Flores, Soembawa, Bali, Surabaya, Tiltijap, Batavia, Oosthaven, Palembang, and Medan.

Now add the Indian Ocean gauntlet, Adaman Island, Ceylon and wherever you decide to land on the west coast of India.

This plan requires a LOT of planning, no ships or planes can be sitting idle, you have to earn political points quickly so as to be able to divert forces from China and Korea, and you have to be very smart about what you build. You need LOTS of PT boats, DDs, CLs, submarines, and cheap to build naval attack planes, patrol planes and transport planes. I turn off most everything except naval construction and building naval attack planes and patrol planes.

The large numbers of troops that are freed up by not invading Malaya, Papua New Guinea, and PI can easily garrison the 26 bases needed for the gauntlet with a force that cannot be overcome by amphibious invasion until 44 or 45.

I would rather have to garrison and defend 26 bases than 2,600 which I would have to if I follow Japan's original plan of conquering everything everywhere.

Also, I didn't say NEVER conquer Malaya and PI, just do it after the gauntlet is up and running and you have made the allies bleed sufficiently.

Hirohito

(in reply to WiTP_Dude)
Post #: 35
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 2:32:53 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		Roosevelt was pushing the Empire into war in every way possible. Cutting off the Empires access to vital raw materials as he did was tantamount to a declaration of war in Japan's eyes. Japan could not have invaded DEI or Malaya or Burma or Australia without a US declaration of war, Roosevelt said as much many times. Roosevelt pretty much stated flat out that an attack on DEI, Malaya, Singapore, Burma, India, Australia, or Papua New Guinea was tantamount to an attack on US.

Also Roosevelt was fighting an undeclared war against Germany in the north atlantic, it was only a matter of time before Hitler got around to either provoking a declared war or declaring war himself. Roosevelt was itching for a fight.

The Alaska gambit makes sense even if it doesn't grant you access to the highways of the west coast simply because US troops, ships and planes that are defending against a possible threat from Alaska cannot also be attacking the Empire elsewhere. Harrassing forces can be left in Alaska if the gambit fails to gain a strong foothold just north of Seattle, these harrassing forces will tie up forces in disproportionate numbers defending against them.

One of the most cost productive things that a numericlly inferior force can do is to set up special strke forces that harrass the enemy because the numbers of forces needed to defend everywhere they might strike is always disproportionate.

The Lawrence gambit seeks to restrict the number of places that the Empire MUST defend to a handful while at the same time giving access to large numbers of targets that the Allies now have to defend.

Ships and planes that are on the bottom of the ocean cannot also be fighting you elsewhere. The Lawrence gambit seeks to put the Allies in the position of having to do numerous resupply efforts through hostile waters.

PI, Malaya, Singapore, Burma, Australia, India, Papua New Guinea, Borneo, and Celebes can be taken anytime after the gauntlet is up and running. Australia is tough, but not impossible. India has to be taken first, but the gauntlet has to be up and running before it is invaded, so the gauntlet has to be built as soon as possible.

I like my chances of freeing up huge numbers of troops from not invading everywhere and building incredibly tough defenses on a handful of bases and then harrassing anything that comes near until I decide to take out the list above at my leisure.

Hirohito

(in reply to Central Blue)
Post #: 36
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 2:43:02 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		This plan has several objectives.
1. Create a gauntlet through which all Allied resupply efforts must pass so they can be attacked repeatedly, causing as much destruction to these ships and planes as possible.
2. Keep the number of bases involved in the gauntlet as small as possible so that they can be made as strong as possible.
3. Conquer India first. (Assumes gauntlet is up and running).
4. Obtain a foothold on the US West Coast to be used as a springboard for land attacks down the coast.
5. Conquer Australia after India falls.
6. Conquer the rest of the co-prosperity sphere at your leisure.

The main objective is to create a gauntlet through which allied supplies must pass and attack these supply forces causing them as much damage as possible. Alaska isn't the real target of the Alaska gambit, the real target is to get a foot hold just north of Seattle so that the west coast highway can be used. The Alaska gambit has to be done quickly. Even if it fails numbers of Allied forces tied up in defending the west coast highway and the numerous harrassing attacks against allied shipping between the west coast and HI will be in greater numbers than the forces harrassing them.

Following the plan the Empire originally used is a waste of my time, I know how that plan turns out.

Hirohito

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 37
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 2:47:35 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		Why would I do that, I stand by my plan. Those that attack it either don't understand it or have not really looked at the forces needed. I have. While not foolproof, that darned enemy always has plans of his own that have a way of upsetting my plans, it has a high chance of success.

I don't understand why everyone is saying that Japan does not have the forces necessary to garrison the small number of bases proposed in the Lawrence gambit, but they are recommending to just follow the plan the Japanese orignally used, which requires conquering and garrisoning, oh, let's see, about 10 times as many places? The counter arguments are not thought out, they basically seem to be saying "it won't work because it won't work".

I will post the forces to be stationed at each base in the guantlet so that we can see what we are really dealing with instead of conjecture.

Hirohito

(in reply to Central Blue)
Post #: 38
RE: Top Ten Best Japanese plans ever - 9/11/2004 2:50:28 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		Why do I need to own the game or read the manuals to develop a sound strategy for waging war? If the game is a decent representation of the actual capabilities of the two sides that wouldn't matter.

But, you are not correct, I do own the game and have read the manuals.

Hirohito

(in reply to Captain Cruft)
Post #: 39
RE: Top Ten Best Japanese plans ever - 9/11/2004 3:02:12 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		You do not understand the plan. I did not say that the US would be unmolested. On the contrary resupply efforts will be GREATLY molested. Planes have to sit at bases, The bases in the PI will be covered by bombing and strafing raids round the clock. Send all the planes of the quality the allies have in 1942 that you want to PI, I'll just sink the transports on the way in, blow them up on the airfields or shoot them down at my leisure. IF they become too big a nuisance, I'll invade PI at a later date.

I don't need the house rule you describe. I have more than enough warships to counter the warships the Allies have in DEI.

Not only does PH happen in my plan, but I add more forces to the strike force. I send three carrier task forces which rendezvous at the historic location. TF1 targets the ships in port, TF2 targets the airfields, TF3 targets the port facilities. I also send a large surface fleet that attack targets in the PH theatre opportunistically. These forces have plenty of Replenishment ships and stay on station at PH indefinitely. Try resupplying PH with 10 carriers, loads of seaplane tenders, and 100 warships lurking around.

Also, fast transports are sent from Kwajalein against each of the bases in the HI that are not PH hoping for a lucky break, that one of them will be undefend or lightly defended. Because of the "gamey" rule that everyone seems to insist on, this force moves to Wotje on Turn 1, so the forces actually move out AFTER the raid on PH begins.

Someone already said, "but what if it rains and the entire US navy moves into the hex occupied by the carriers"? To which I reply, "what navy"? You mean the one that is sunk at PH? Or the two carriers that are lurking about vs my ten? Or the third carrier based on the west coast? My 100 capital ships will take care of them if they do find the hex the carriers occupy and are silly enough to move to it.

I don't think the allies can keep a determined Japanese player from obtaining at least a foothold in the Hawaiin Islands, if the Japanese player has plenty of engineers, suppliies, planes, and ships to base at this foothold, you can make the Allied position in the HI pretty much untenable. This sets the US back at least six months.

It is interesting how everyone has such a negative opinion on a plan they don't understand, even though I explained it in large detail.

Hirohito

(in reply to UncleBuck)
Post #: 40
RE: Top Ten Best Japanese plans ever - 9/11/2004 3:21:19 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		Exactly why are they crazy? How are you going to base any real air threat in Singapore with daily devestating air raids from Indochina? Why do I have to sail past Singapore, why can't I go on the west of the DEI? I invade Alaska on the small chance that I can get a foothold on the US west coast just north of Seattle.

I want those bases in the HI so that I can harrass PH into starvation, I didn't say I wouldn't take it if I could, I said the ORIGINAL invasion is to take one of the undefended bases.

I see a common thread to these posts. Lets look at my plan on Jan 7 if all goes according to plan. Japan controls the following:
1. Kona and Hilo
2. Midway
3. Wake
4. Johnson Island
5. Palmyra Island
6. Christmas Island
7. Guadalcanal
8. Rennel Island
9. Santa Cruz Island
10. Espirito Santo
11. Efate
12. New Calendonia
13. New Zealand
14. Morotai
15. Ambon Island
16. Waigen Island
17. Tenimbar Island
18. Timor
19. Flores
20. Soembawa
21. Bali
22. Java Island
23. Sumatra Island
24. Andaman Island
25. Ceylon
26. Something in Alaskan panhandle.

The allies are in a pickle. Moving anything to PH is very risky what with TEN carriers, dozens of planes, and dozens of warships based in Hilo and Kona.

Moving anything out of the west coast is subject to attack from Alaska. Lots of subs, MLs, DDs, PGs, and PCs in Alaska. Here I do not mean the Aleutians, I mean the panhandle.

Moving anything to the PI means passing through TWO gauntlets, the first running n/s from alaska to NZ, the second running in a loop from Palau to Andaman Island.

Malaya, Singapore, and Burma are under constant air attack from two directions, Indochina and Sumatra/Java/Andaman Island.

The PI islands are under constant air attack from Palau, Formosa, Okinawa, Morotai.

The question is what does the Empire do next?

I would invade India by sea from Andaman Island and Ceylon, starting with the west coast of India.

If hit as soon as possible, India will fall.

After that I would hit Australia with everything I can put afloat, it might not fall, but I would bet I'll get 70% of it. McArthur said he could only defend 30% of Australia from a determined Empire attack.

Oh, and I would definitely be attacking PH in everyway possibe, as often as possible from the bases in Hilo/Kona. I might capture it, I might not. Probably a 50/50 chance.

Remember viewers I have 100s of thousands of troops that are NOT garrisoning useless islands, or wading through the jungles in PI, Malaya, Burma, Papua New Guinea for the invasion of India. Yes, it will take pretty much every transport I have to take India. But the payback is well worth it.

Hirohito

Hirohito

(in reply to Oleg Mastruko)
Post #: 41
RE: Top Ten Best Japanese plans ever - 9/11/2004 3:24:53 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		I did work out the details. To every last ship, squad, plane, gallon of fuel, box of ammo, and bowl of rice. It ain't easy, and you have to plan carefully. But the allies are in for some nasty surprises as they try to resupply everyone that is screaming for supplies. And, just when they think they are getting the upper hand, I invade those places anyway.

As Guderian put it during the campaign in France, the best way to suppress air power is to capture the bases they fly out of.

Hirohito

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 42
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 3:26:13 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		I dont' play the AI, a waste of time.

Hirohito

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 43
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 3:28:37 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		I didnt' say I wasn't going to invade Australia. I said I would starve them first. India can be starved, you carve it up and starve individual bases. The plan calls for the invasion of India as soon as the gauntlet is in place which will happen by Jan 7.

I'm not after Alaksa, I'm after a foothold on the west coast highway.

Troops fighting in the west coast of US cannot also be invading Empire territory elsewhere.

Hirohito

(in reply to Central Blue)
Post #: 44
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 3:36:54 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		You didnt' read my plan. I'm going to take something in the Hawaiin Islands as part of the original raid. The ships stationed off the HI will transfer to that base, along with planes and engineers and supplies and fuel. What do you mean I can't load ships on turn 1? That's stupid. The way I see it, any ships that are part of Nagumos raiding force are okay. What dfference does it make if he has 15 ships or 150 ships?

It won't matter anyway, whether I move on turn 2 or turn 3.

I won't give up, you will be the one giving up.

Okay, I'll give you this. I won't move anything except from one Japanese controlled port to another Japanese controlled port outside of the original PH raiding force, except I want to change the list of ships that make up this force and the ports they sail from, these ships will rendezvous at a spot of my choosing but follow the same basic course as Nagumo on their way to PH. This way no one can claim, "But then you would not have had surprise because we would have seen you coming", becase I'll be doing basically what Nagumo did except with more ships.

You won't even hold the Hawaiin Islands.

Hirohito

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 45
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 3:48:47 PM   
Oleg Mastruko


Posts: 4921
Joined: 10/21/2000
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Hirohito

I dont' play the AI, a waste of time.

Hirohito


Who do you play then? Have you tried your plans vs. human?

I will repeat - I will be more than ready to let you test your plans vs me as USN as soon as the next patch is out. I think your plans are completely untenable (if you really stick by them when playing).

O.

_____________________________


(in reply to Hirohito)
Post #: 46
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 4:19:29 PM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		Hi, You can't reach Ambiona Island on Dec 7 unless you use the turn 1 exploit.

You have 12 Div and 6 Bde to do all this with. While there are many SNLF/NG units they cannot be relied on to hold any base and can only capture weakly held bases.

(You do not base your plan on knowledge gained from peeking at Allied prewar deployments do you?)

< Message edited by Mogami -- 9/11/2004 9:55:48 AM >

_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to Oleg Mastruko)
Post #: 47
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 6:25:06 PM   
Hirohito

 

Posts: 116
Joined: 9/10/2004
Status: offline 		I didn't say that Ambon would be taken on Dec 7. I said it would be held by Jan 7. I developed the plan based on wanting to emulate the lawrence of arabia strategy that was used successfully in the vast ocean of sand that is the arabian peninsula. Lawrence didn't have "enough" forces either. I have heard enough complaining about actions taken on Dec 7 by the Imperial forces that I have modified the plan so that all movements done outside of forces bound for the bombardment of PH are between Japenese held bases only. The actual kick off vs non PH targets is Dec 8. Dec 7 is spent loading ships and moving things around a bit.

I know how many Imperial forces there are.

The Japanese had immense intelligence on the Allied deployments just prior to Dec 7. Are you saying that I should pretend they didn't have this information? Why do you think those sushi bars and oriental spas/massage parlors are all over the place? What do you think those girls all named Rosie are talking to the Allied soldiers and saiilors about while they give them their "Massage/bath"?

The Japanese military was confident that they could outfight the Allied forces at the beginning of the war at even less than 1-1 odds, and they were right.

Hirohito

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 48
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 6:27:39 PM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline
quote:

beginning at Ambon Island


Hi, I would like to be your Huckleberry for the first try. (I like seeing new ideas executed)

< Message edited by Mogami -- 9/11/2004 11:28:53 AM >

_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to Hirohito)
Post #: 49
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 8:28:15 PM   
dtravel


Posts: 4533
Joined: 7/7/2004
Status: offline 		One of the goals of this strategy is to set up "gauntlets" of LBA that the Allies would have to run supply convoys thru. One thought that occurs to me is that if the Japanese attempt or succeed in capturing one of the HI bases, aren't they just setting themselves up to run the same gauntlet of LBA to keep it functioning?

_____________________________

This game does not have a learning curve. It has a learning cliff.

"Bomb early, bomb often, bomb everything." - Niceguy

Any bugs I report are always straight stock games.


(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 50
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 9:11:55 PM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		Hi to supply one base that is flying 1 daitai of bombers and 1 daitai of fighters will require
54 supply per day fighters 108supply per day for bombers (1 mission not counting bomb loads) or 216 supply per day (not counting bomb loads) or 270 supply per day for AC not counting bomb loads. 40 supply per day for 1 div not in combat supply for support troops (AV/AA/CD/HQ) Call it 400 supply per day not counting bomb loads or 2800 supply per week or 11,200 supply per month (before any combat is added.) Ships protecting the base will require AA/Gun reloads and fuel.

1 hit on supply destroys .1 percent of supply onhand so if Japanese unload 3 months worth of supply 33,600 points and Allied night attack scores 1 hit total next day will be

Day 1
33,600 minus .1=33264
33,264 minus daily supply (400)=32,864 (daily supply required DSR)

Day 2
32,864 minus .1=32,535
32535 minus DSR=32135

Day 3
32135-.1=31814
31814-400=31414

Day 4
31414-.1=31100
31100-400=30700

Day 5
30700-.1=30393
30393-400=29993

Day 6
29993-.1=29693
29693-400=29293

Day 7
29293-.1=29000
29000-400=28600

First week supply consumed=4600 + bomb load +spoilage (spoilage is produced when port+airfield size less then 10) projected supply use 2800. Actual +1800 (plus bombload =spoilage)

Change starting supply required for 3 months to +1800x4x3+36200=57,800

(this is one base for 3 months minus bombloads and spoilage and rearming ships)

xnumber of bases.

At the coast of 57,800 supply (or more) Japan gets base that is weakly held and operating weak air force.
Double the size of force and you double the supply cost.


Allied response against unsupplied forward Japanese bases will begin around first week of Mar 1942. (They can accelerate Japanese supply use by scoring more then 1 supply hit per night)

No matter how far Japan has advanced by mid Jan 42 they will have exhausted supply reserves. (Japan at full production produces a total of 25,000 supply per day. )
Enough to run 1 base for 62 days but it is not produced in a single location and has yet to be collected and transported. The loss of each 7k AK load of supply = 3weeks of base supply.

< Message edited by Mogami -- 9/11/2004 2:25:07 PM >

_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to dtravel)
Post #: 51
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 9:41:47 PM   
Central Blue

 

Posts: 695
Joined: 8/20/2004
Status: offline 		Hirohito,

glad to see you don't feel picked on. Genius, on the other hand, is seldom appreciated

I would certainly like to take a crack at you. No experience with PBEM, but lots of time with PacWar and the history of the conflict. But there are a lot of folks here with way bigger reps than mine. I look forward to the AARs.

In the meantime, the argument is fun too. Thanks for bringing it to us.

_____________________________

USS St. Louis firing on Guam, July 1944. The Cardinals and Browns faced each other in the World Series that year

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 52
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 10:02:06 PM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		Hi, Hey he at least has a plan. I've always felt that a bad plan executed well was much better then a great plan poorly executed or no plan at all. (running around like a chicken with it's head cutoff is not a good way to conduct a war)
If you have a plan to begin with you can modify it to reflect changes in situation existing when plan was made. Without a plan as a starting point your lost before you begin.

I would have prefered he kept alot of this quietbecause there is much more reaction in the Allied capabilty then he is supposing if the Allies know in advance what is happening.

There is no such thing as a long term plan that "you can't stop even if you know it's coming" I've already begun working up an Allied counter Mar 1942 is the time I see Japan coming to a halt from lack of supply. To be sure in Mar 1942 Japan will have in excess of 1,500,000 supply points on map. But it will not be where it is required to prevent Allied operations.

I think the India phase will be abandoned early on. The Japanese have 12 Div and 6 Bde. The CBI contains (not including Chinese formations that begin assigned to SEAC)
no fewer then 5 div and 5 Bde. Plus a very powerfull armored force.

The USA has for CenPac use at start and ready to go 4 Div and several RCT combined force outside the SRA then is 9 Div and 7 Bde/RCT

Inside the SRA are forces that require no less then 6 Japanese Div just to contain.

The Chinese are able if used correctly to distract several div and several Bde from Southern Area Army. (Indo China)

The real deployable force for Japan consits of SNLF and prehaps 3 Div worth of troops.
Outnumbered in any direction employed. The IJN will consume fuel at rates faster then it can be transported. (Oh they have that 45 day run wild period)

There are not enough baseforce units for SRA/India/CenPac all at once and the SRA enemy air power cannot be destroyed in 1 or 2 days. (The bulk of it remains out of range for quite a while.)

Before the Allied SRA naval forces are accounted for the IJN will have to remain in SRA.

And last and most fatal is the Japanese are commiting to a large supply requirment 3 months before they know what their supply total will be.

that 25000 per day requires a full production from Palembang and other SRA bases.
Japanese production of supply will not offset use prior to Mid Mar 1942 no matter how well SRA operations go and assuming they capture all bases 100 percent intact and begin imeditate shipments to heavy Industry. There will be a well defined decrease in Japanese operations produced by lack of supply commencing in mid Jan and lasting till mid Feb (while the scattered material is collected) this will allow a very moderate increase in operations for remaineder of Feb before it come completly and finally to a halt.
Allied operations will commence soon after.

Now all we have to do is run the turns and see who the bestter guesser is.

_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to Central Blue)
Post #: 53
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 10:25:20 PM   
Vaevictis_386

 

Posts: 103
Joined: 7/14/2004
Status: offline 		Hats off to Hirohito for thinking up something very intriguing and innovative.

Just about any Japanese plan can be countered with the objection: You won't have enough forces/supplies to do it. Japan is always in that situation.

Perhaps the greatest strength of H.s plan is that Allied players could not rely on well worn historical paths of response. They'd have to think creatively too, and if they weren't good at this, would find themselves in hot water.

One reservation I have is that Japan gives up the advantage of interior lines of defense. Would this be worth the price? Maybe...

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 54
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 10:31:34 PM   
mogami


Posts: 12789
Joined: 8/23/2000
From: You can't get here from there
Status: offline 		Hi, If my admititly conservative Japanese operations are restricted in scope because of supply I don't need a calculator to see that more expasive operations requiring a higher level of operational intensity will experiance supply problems.

It does no good to have moved 300 Japanese aircraft to a base where they have no supply and there is no supply to ship. Moving forces to advances bases and leaving them in an unsupplied condition does not hurt the Allies. It might look pretty on the map to see all the Japanese flags but you better save a screen shot because it cannot be maintained.

Logistics are not something that gets in the way of a great plan. Logistics before any movement can be considered define what can move where and fight and for how long.

To be honest I would permit the Japanese to move safely all the way to the US West Coast. Hell I'll give him a port in Canada with a nice airfield if he promises to really move there.

What is so innovative of saying you'll take India and Alaska? Innovative would be finding a way to supply it in the first place. If that can't be done the the rest is just talk.

No where in any of this do I see anything that destroys more Allied material then is lost. No where does it force the Allied player to give battle in any location he does not feel he has a chance of coming out at least equal. Equal is losing for Japan.

< Message edited by Mogami -- 9/11/2004 3:35:29 PM >

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I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to Vaevictis_386)
Post #: 55
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 11:04:04 PM   
dtravel


Posts: 4533
Joined: 7/7/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mogami
To be honest I would permit the Japanese to move safely all the way to the US West Coast. Hell I'll give him a port in Canada with a nice airfield if he promises to really move there.

What is so innovative of saying you'll take India and Alaska? Innovative would be finding a way to supply it in the first place. If that can't be done the the rest is just talk.


There's that note of cynicism again! Come on Mogami! You're supposed to be one of the giants of WiTP, think positively! <ducking and running away very very quickly now>

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This game does not have a learning curve. It has a learning cliff.

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Any bugs I report are always straight stock games.


(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 56
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 11:32:29 PM   
pasternakski


Posts: 6565
Joined: 6/29/2002
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Hirohito
"I won't give up, you will be the one giving up."

Jesse Ventura

(in reply to Hirohito)
Post #: 57
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 11:33:21 PM   
pasternakski


Posts: 6565
Joined: 6/29/2002
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: dereck
Sorry about flaming you Hirohito - it definitely wasn't my intention.

Edward Teller

(in reply to dereck)
Post #: 58
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 11:34:53 PM   
pasternakski


Posts: 6565
Joined: 6/29/2002
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mogami
To be honest I would permit the Japanese to move safely all the way to the US West Coast.

Lee Iacocca

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 59
RE: Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun - 9/11/2004 11:43:32 PM   
Central Blue

 

Posts: 695
Joined: 8/20/2004
Status: offline 		great schtick pasternakski!

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USS St. Louis firing on Guam, July 1944. The Cardinals and Browns faced each other in the World Series that year

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Post #: 60
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