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RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 1:53:12 PM   
String


Posts: 2661
Joined: 10/7/2003
From: Estonia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Raverdave

Java ! Brilliant Idea, tell me do you have enough time to steam under Oz and then pop up on the west coast via Perth? This would keep your TF well hidden.
How are your PPs? Do you have enough to start stripping NZ and Oz to support your Java thrust?


sadly i doubt there is time for that given the very dire situation in india..

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 331
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 7:33:27 PM   
asdicus

 

Posts: 260
Joined: 5/16/2002
From: Surrey,UK
Status: offline 		I regret to sound pessimistic about the plans to attack java but it seems to me that this would be a great way for the allies to hand their head on a platter to the japanese. I will try to explain my reasoning.

Allies have no intermediate bases between australia and java so they cannot support their forces by land-based air. Only allied aircover comes from 5 carriers with say 130 fighters. Japanese have numerous large airbases they can use with hundreds of trained zeroes+betties - result loss of usa carriers and isolation of the landing force. The only way to prevent this is bombing the japanese airfields - which is impossible from australia.
Also note that java is close to singapore his main overseas base - it will be easy for him to move surface ships + carriers back to oppose you and still keep attacking in india. The most likely outcome is you land some troops - your carriers are sunk/disabled and then you have several divisions stuck in java with no supply and no hope.

Sorry to be so negative but I strongly believe that you need either land-based aircover or a massive air/sea superiority to succeed - neither condition applies in this case.

Ok I am british which makes me a cautious type - what would I do? The indian invasion relies on supply by sea - there is no land connection to the forces in burma. Stop the sea supply stops the invasion - I hope! The only way to do this is send the carriers and a large bb surface forces to india/ceylon. Try to surprise his naval forces and sink some carriers. Use the bb forces to hold karachi and the carriers to raid shipping in the bay of bengal. The land based air in india attacks the jap airbases to keep betty away. You are lucky that columbo is still a base for your forces. Ok you are short of safe bases for the fleet but no plan is perfect ! If I were japanese my greatest fear would be usa carriers in india - imagine getting 12 odd divisions isolated in india with no supply !

So here am I the lone voice against the java plan - madness or brilliance - let me know !

(in reply to wobbly)
Post #: 332
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 7:40:18 PM   
String


Posts: 2661
Joined: 10/7/2003
From: Estonia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: asdicus

*snip*




I am quite positive that most of those "hundreds of trained zeroes and betties" are in south pacific and marshall islands. It will take a few turns to transfer them and by then they will be very high on fatigue and have taken numerous oplosses on the way. wobbly only needs one base on java and he can place fighters there. Fighters can be transferred easily with just one carrier acting as a platform in between java and oz. IIRC even non carrier capable fighters can be transferred onto a carrier and off them? Even if it isn't so he should have a wildcat group or two to take off immediate pressure.


*chants* Attack Java!!! Attack java!!! Attack Java!!! *chants*

< Message edited by String -- 1/4/2005 12:40:15 PM >

(in reply to asdicus)
Post #: 333
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 7:52:48 PM   
asdicus

 

Posts: 260
Joined: 5/16/2002
From: Surrey,UK
Status: offline 		String - yes the zero+betty force will be spread out over the empire but they have such long range it will take only a few days to move them all back. Also there are naval bombers in india/ceylon only say 2 days transfer away. In the real world it would take time to move these air units but in the game they seem to fly fine after moving halfway across the map. You are assuming that the landing will capture a decent airbase straight away to transfer your planes to - a big 'if'. I just cannot see how 5 usa carriers with small fighter(size 27) airgroups are going to hold back superior numbers of well-trained japanese aircraft - once the carriers are gone so is the invasion force. The input of japanese carrier and surface forces from the bay of bengal/singapore is also likely. The point loss in allied ships will make the 4:1 autovictory even more likely in 1943 for the japanese.

(in reply to String)
Post #: 334
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 7:57:41 PM   
mlees


Posts: 2263
Joined: 9/20/2003
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		In my inexperienced opinion, Java may not get you what you are looking for. If I recall correctly, you (Wobbly) has stated that you are looking for a way to get points to avoid an autovictory by the Japanese.

Java in of itself, does not provide much. Click on each base. The point values are dissappointingly low. I'm guessing that Soerabaja itself is only worth 30 or 40 points. Not much over a hundred points for the island as a whole. Java is not worth attacking (especially as it is a little out of LBA range from Australia, and a LONG way back to serious repair yards for damaged ships) for the victory point value alone. It IS worth cutting off it's oil/resource sources from Japan, but that is a long term affect item.

If you need points fast, because India is about to fall, I don't know what to suggest. The bases worth a lot of points (to the allies) are: (from memory) Rangoon, Singapore, Hong Kong (I think), Saigon (I think), Manila, Okinawa, Marianas, Japan/Hokkaido, Pearl, and probably OZ/NZ. If you think you need to get a few hundred or a couple thousand points (in base values) within a couple months, look around for an easilly isolated high value area and drive for that.

I apologize in advance (to the master startegists out there) for my musings, if they are of no value here.

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 335
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 7:58:48 PM   
sveint


Posts: 3556
Joined: 1/19/2001
From: Glorious Europe
Status: offline 		Even just putting on a show of invading Java could help tremendously in India (if it's not too late).

_____________________________


(in reply to asdicus)
Post #: 336
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 8:10:50 PM   
Mynok


Posts: 12108
Joined: 11/30/2002
Status: offline 		I believe the primary consideration for wobbly was: What can I attack that will force him to pull forces from the India campaign? Java was a suggestion as it has key Japanese resources.

(in reply to sveint)
Post #: 337
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 8:12:55 PM   
mlees


Posts: 2263
Joined: 9/20/2003
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		Why? If I were very close to autovictory, I would ignore losing a 100 to 200 point value Java for what (I am assuming) a couple thousand points for Bombay and/or Karachi.

I think Wobbly has said that PzB needs 4000 more points for Autovictory. How many more Indian cities need to be captured by PzB to cover this? If PzB can do this within another month, Operation Dutch Shoestring may not be enough of a distraction, unless for morale reasons PzB does not like to yield ANY of his conquests.

(in reply to sveint)
Post #: 338
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 10:09:09 PM   
Tom Hunter


Posts: 2194
Joined: 12/14/2004
Status: offline 		I just want to point out an assumption that seems (apoligies if I am wrong) to be coloring many of the posts on the Java attack. The assumption is that Wobbly needs to attack Java and take it (win).

I would argue that it would be nice if he wins but that its ok if he loses as long and India holds. The prospect of huge amounts of air, KB, troops and everything else in Japan's arsenal coming at him is a good one for Wobbly because everything that comes to Java is not in India. If Wobbly gets into a big fight for Java and loses over the course of a month or two that is fine as long as it prevents auto victory. I realize that if he loses too much then it could increase the chance of auto victory but he has to lose points at a 4 to one rate. So if he fights and loses 2 planes to one or two soldiers to one he is actually messing up PzB's plan. Wobbly actually gets more out of losing a huge attrition battle than he gets from winning a small battles even if he wins by a large margin.

(in reply to mlees)
Post #: 339
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 10:17:04 PM   
String


Posts: 2661
Joined: 10/7/2003
From: Estonia
Status: offline 		However, I must ask this question that has been weighing on my mind for quite some time...


"Sand in the Vaseline" ?????

I don't know about you but vaseline is mostly associated with anal sex around here... between two males..

now putting sand in the vaseline might give you a rougher ride (something that PzB sure has done) but i severly doub that this is what you had in mind with the title of your AAR

< Message edited by String -- 1/4/2005 3:17:27 PM >

(in reply to Tom Hunter)
Post #: 340
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 10:46:45 PM   
rtrapasso


Posts: 22653
Joined: 9/3/2002
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: String

"Sand in the Vaseline" ?????

I don't know about you but vaseline is mostly associated with anal sex around here... between two males..




I hesistate to ask where "around here" is.

_____________________________


(in reply to String)
Post #: 341
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 11:10:56 PM   
mlees


Posts: 2263
Joined: 9/20/2003
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		That would work only if PzB is worried enough by the assault and pulls stuff out of India to counter. I am not sure he would, but Wobbly would (and does) know him better.

I am unclear as to the situation in Russia and China, but there may be units in those areas PzB can use to backstop Java.

I can't play humans, because I end up talking myself into circles trying to guess what the opponent will or can do. I then can't make up my mind on a proper strategy, and end up running around like a chicken with my head cut off.

(in reply to Tom Hunter)
Post #: 342
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 11:22:49 PM   
ltfightr


Posts: 537
Joined: 6/16/2002
From: Little Rock AR
Status: offline 		Dont forget bases are worth diffrent amounts to each side. Where a base in Java might be worth 30 to the allies it may be worth 300 to Japan. So you may gain 30 points but he loses 300 for a 330 point swing.

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(in reply to mlees)
Post #: 343
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 11:42:56 PM   
mlees


Posts: 2263
Joined: 9/20/2003
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		Nope. I checked. I'll check again tonight. All the bases there are very poor point-value wise, for both sides.

< Message edited by mlees -- 1/4/2005 1:50:59 PM >

(in reply to ltfightr)
Post #: 344
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 11:44:12 PM   
wobbly

 

Posts: 1095
Joined: 10/16/2002
From: Christchurch, New Zealand
Status: offline 		Once again lads, excellent musings. I can tell you that this has preoccupied far too much of my time while I can't actually look at the map myself.

A few points to make clear:

There is no time to steam under Oz to do the attack.

I must therefore take the gap between Oz and New Guinea.

Yes, I have enough PPs to release another Oz Division, but I have the serious problem of no Brit BBs to send back to the UK. This means I am likely to be down 2000 PP when a 'BB required month ticks over'!

The whole point to the invasion is to distract PzB from India. Is he certain he will get the required points from India? If so then he will continue with the attack into India as if I am not there - and frankly there is nothing I can do about that.

Putting the US carriers against the Japs in India, with the nearest safe harbour of Darwin, has not been much of an option from the start. Looking for an all out attack against his carriers and hoping for a Midway result is just as perilous at this time of the game as it was at the start: he will have made good his losses of the Hiryu and Soryu with other smaller CVs by now. If I loose my carriers they will contribute to the points enough to push me over the edge.

With the above point then why am I putting them within such close range of land based Nells and Betties? Well there is no other way to it, but stick with me for a timetable...

D-Day minus 3 - bombers at PM strike Lae heavily.

D-day minus 2 - a surface force dropping off supplies to Lunga becomes a bombardment force and hit Shortlands. Heavy bombers from PM hit Rabaul.

D-Day minus 1 - Heavy bombers from PM hit Rabaul.

He sights me off Java and moves a modicum of land based AC units in. That night my two Bombardment TFs hit what they can - hopefully I get an idea of which airfields he has pumped and that they are within range of a strike. Ship based float planes run recon missions.

Day 2 - landings on two 1,1 bases. His medium forces - whatever he can find from around the DEI: mainly Lillies, Marys, and Sonyas - with maybe some zero escort - most of these guys are still at the front or protecting the South Pacific - hopefully my diversion has drawn away a few more bombers. They attack and meet the wildcats. I imagine I will suffer a few hits but hopefully nothing too distressing.

Day 3 - Attack the small base hexes - I should take them as I doubt he has any real opposing forces. Invasion of Timor and maybe one other stepping stone island with an RCT and base unit starts. Heavy air attacks of Indian possessions to remind him I haven't gone away up there either. Weather more air attacks against my fleet as he realises this is for real but still no real naval bombers have made it. I move the fighter sqds on board my carriers to the land based hexes. Land forces move inland. Carriers move out of range.

I now have land based defense, I may even unload the air arm of the Lexington and another Carrier as they both need time in dock and could also handle the AAA upgrade (downside of this of course is the carriers are not available for anti-naval work against the KB). My surface forces can stay under the aircover provided and make him think twice about bombardment. However, if he has bombardment forces they could still attack my landings, anything smaller than BBs will have trouble - and if the BBs have come to the party then I have succeeded in drawing them away from India.

Day 4 - Stepping stone islands taken. Now bombers and fighters can fly to and from bases in Oz - things should be coming together. He will have some pretty heavy anti-naval units in place, but I should have as many as 10 fighter sqds on defense. He is not going to do this easily!

The whole point is to pull effort away from India. Taking Java itself is worth sod all points - granted. But I am hoping (against hope maybe) that strategically it scares the crap out of him. Even if, in the short term, he doesn't care about his oil and resource bases, then maybe he will care about the shipping in Singapore harbour that will start to wear the wrath of 100+ heavy bomber raids?

Down to the crux of it. If his BBs are not against India then I can heavily populate Karachi with defensive assault units.

Hopefully I have answered most of the questions - I will look through those postings that I have not:

STRV103C: If he takes all Indian bases and forces my units to surrender I think he will be well over 4-1 odds - he is in the driving seat here so it is not up to me anymore.
I CAN see me getting past Timor actually. I have been doing it for the last 4 weeks - the Pedastal (Hermes AC reinforcement) missions, the transfer of the Oz 2nd Division, the movement of an oil TF (which I forgot about and is now bound for Perth) and the TF loaded with 120 odd ACs for India - all of these have been traipsing past Java without being seen! Another point is I sent a surface unit from Cairns to the Indian ocean a turn or so ago. I have not seen any subs for a while, but they can look in the gap between New Guinea and Oz for the little beasts. Either way he is fixated with India, he 'should' think they are heading in that direction.

Sveint - I am not at home, that is why you aren't getting combat results, so no maps available. I have started a very small attack on Wuchow. He will easily repulse it unfortunately - but there you are.

Asdicus - hopefully my timetable will not sound too far fetched. I agree the loss of the US carriers would be catastrophic. I am banking on this being a complete surprise and being able to roll back his units very quickly. Once the landings are successful, and I hold land bases, land based air can do the defense. Actually, once he can no longer see the US carriers he will have the same exasperation I had when the KB is loose: "where are his carriers!" If it goes pear shaped it will do so spectacularly.
With seabee units and self propagating supply I should be able to take and then make very hard to retake the Javanese main Island. I am reminded of Andy's defense of Java. He did very well against 8 incoming Jap divisions, the KB, BBs and the whole Jap airforce when Sveint attacked him. He has committed to India. He will need to commit on the Sveint scale, to take back Java - this should be too much for even him to accomplish (well here's hoping ) while he is also in India. If he comes to this conclusion of course then maybe he will just disregard it and continue in India. If this is the case I still have a much closer base to the indian adventure for counter attack.

MLees: The obvious response to his attacks in India is to reinforce the beleagured troops there. If anything most of the nay-sayers have been worried about the US Carriers coming into range of his land based Naval bombers and the KB - with very good reason! Reinforcing India will mean doing exactly this - with almost garaunteed failure. Every top class air unit he has is in India and within easy movement of any Indian landings. Remember, this is late May 42, veterens like Raverdave are umming and arring about where to commit their troops and in the end he is bending to the side of caution because the bananaman is still a force to be reckoned with. Well I don't have that luxury - I have to commit in order to coerce him into dancing to my tune. I still though, cannot walk into his house and start moving the furniture via the front door! It has to be more subtle but still get his attention. Java seemed the only place I had a chance to pull it off...

A reminder to those that are worried about the risks I am taking. PzB has done a number on me, well done him. I am not one to sit back and HOPE that there aren't enough points for him to get auto-victory in India, I would rather go down swinging. I do not have the power to get into India in a reinforcement capacity. I needed to have sent more Oz Divisions far earlier - I am lucky to have snuck past with the Oz 2nd.

If we rule out reinforcement of India by force (taking carriers and BBs in under his land based air), especially with friendly ports so far away (another bonus about taking Java). Then where else do I put pressure on him?

(in reply to ltfightr)
Post #: 345
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 11:47:10 PM   
wobbly

 

Posts: 1095
Joined: 10/16/2002
From: Christchurch, New Zealand
Status: offline 		"Sand in the Vaseline" has filthy connatations - yep. Not that PzB has had that much of a rough ride. However, how you use your vas is your own secret.

Personnally I like to %**@$*$)%*@# afterwards!

(in reply to wobbly)
Post #: 346
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/4/2005 11:53:24 PM   
Strv103C


Posts: 90
Joined: 11/28/2004
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Just a tip to all, allways copy allt text to clipboard before posting. I had a big post gone now "we are sorry...", i'm really pissed.

(in reply to mlees)
Post #: 347
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 12:27:10 AM   
Strv103C


Posts: 90
Joined: 11/28/2004
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Good plan, just two comments:

First if you lose India the points gain for PzB will probably be around 8-10000 (bases 3000 and the rest is troops). Say that he still have 4000 points to autovictory then he will have a margin of 4-6000 points. A big carrier battle late 42 might fix this, even at 1:1 loss. So losing India is not a lost game I think.

Second, do you really have to execute the Java invasion to draw away Jap forces from India? A show of force south of Java, outside effective LBA range, might do the trick. Then you could keep your forces in the area as a threat, he must have troops and aircraft there. If he doesn't detect your invasion or doesn't reinforce enough then invade.
I mean if he is waiting for you at Java then you have already succeeded.

(in reply to wobbly)
Post #: 348
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 12:46:30 AM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		Hmmmmm ok wobb good luck I understand what you are saying I still think you are better off doing the job you have prepped for but I accept you may not have much choice.

I wonder if Sumatra should be hit at the same time for at least a diversion ?.

Land at the base on the south of Sumatra and on Javaat the same time. (or at least FT an RCT to it)

If you want to get his attention that will get his attention.

Any threat to Palembang has to be take seriously and if you hit Sumatra with at least a couple of RCT's does that not put Singapore in fighter range to support those 100 bomber raids?

Just a thought.

Andy

(in reply to Strv103C)
Post #: 349
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 12:50:42 AM   
mlees


Posts: 2263
Joined: 9/20/2003
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		Sumatra is not worth very many points to either side in base-victory-points either...

(in reply to Andy Mac)
Post #: 350
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 1:42:23 AM   
ADavidB


Posts: 2464
Joined: 9/17/2001
From: Toronto, Canada
Status: offline 		Wobbly - the most dangerous part of your plan is the assumption that you will be able to take Java quickly. If he has any troops it will take you days to root them out. Unfortunately, the game design has Japanese troops as "gods" and Allied troops as "dogs". You could find yourself with no air bases, troops stuck in Java, and the Japanese forces taking a quick jaunt to wipe out any of your local naval forces.

Even pulling the KB away from India right now won't help a lot - his land forces will eventually take India anyway - it's the nature of the game design.

You would be better off with invasions of the Kuriles if you want to distract him. He can't ignore you there.

Good luck -

Dave Baranyi

(in reply to wobbly)
Post #: 351
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 1:42:54 AM   
Andy Mac

 

Posts: 15222
Joined: 5/12/2004
From: Alexandria, Scotland
Status: offline 		Its not the points its the diversion .... but it may be an island to far perhaps concentration on one objective is the best idea.

Dont forget to take the Aus Fighter Sqn that upgrades to Spits with you you will need them once you get ashore.....

Perhaps a triple landing one Division at Madion Djojakarta and Malang ?

That way you definitly cut the island in two and can hopefully wipe out any units he has in the South.

Andy

(in reply to mlees)
Post #: 352
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 8:04:41 AM   
mlees


Posts: 2263
Joined: 9/20/2003
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		I apologise.

I thought there was two goals. Distract PzB enough to save India, and getting a lot of points quickly to stave off an autovictory.

I loaded up the stock scen 15, and noticed that just the one base of Trimcomalee is worth more to the Japanese player than Java and Sumatra combined. Same with Diamond Harbor, Madras, etc.

Invading the DEI might distract PzB enough, but only Wobbly knows him well enough to say. If PzB can pull units from China/Machuria/Russia, he might not need to slow down in India. Again, Wobbly is the only one with the game on hand to know for sure. I think the time crunch is a very intimidating factor at this point. How long will India last as is? Mr. Wobby?

Again, I'm a Noob, so bear with me: I see the picture of using the troops at this point like this:

1)India Pro: Directly slows advance in India, if they can be deployed in time, or maybe preventing PzB from getting Bombay and Karachi at all. (Karachi is worth 1200 vp's at start of scenario for PzB, Bombay 150.)

Con: PzB has the LBA and KB lurking about, making inserting American/OZ/Kiwi LCU's tough.

2) DEI Pro: Attacks aimed directly at oil/resource centers are nice. May distract PzB as an attack "on his flank" might do. Brings B17's in range of Malacca strait and Singapore to attack supply shipping.

Con: Low point values for the bases themselves. Oodles of bases that Jap LBA can rebase quickly in response/defence. Long distance from large repair yards if Wobbly gets a lot of damaged ships in taking his objectives. Long distance from USA in regards to shipping in more air and ground assets.

3) Solomons/Rabaul Pro: Secures NE flank of OZ. Threatens Truk if PzB is emotionally attached to it. Springboard to Carolines/Marianas.

Con: Maybe too obvious of an counter-attack path. Low point values of bases themselves. (Truk itself is only worth 18(!) points at game start for both players.) Doesn't immediately threaten Japan in a material way. Somewhat long distance to US repair yards and reinforcements.

4) Marshall/Gilberts Same as Solomons, except that the sailing distance to the USA is several days closer.

5) Sakhalin/Hokkaido Pro: So ballsy that PzB may not be expecting it, and would definately require heavy response. High point value of bases. Allows immediate strategic attacks on Jap industries, and capture of some small plants themselves.

Con: Way too far out of range for support from current LBA bases. Somewhat long distance to repair yards and reinforcements. (About as far as the Marshalls.) Current forces are way out of position to initiate this campaign. (I assume.) Close range to good air bases, repair yards, and reinforcements in Japan proper (for Japanese player). Japan has had time (or starts with) high level forts.

I only included the number 5 above as this is a good tactic versus a Jap AI...

6) Marianas/Bonin Islands (Bypassing Marshalls/Wake) Pro: High point value bases. Strategic bombing range of Japan. Another threat that PzB must respond to. Bases may allow attack on shipping to and from Japan.

Con: Possible to be cut off by Jap air based in Marshalls/Wake. Long range to US repair/reinforcments (about as far as the Solomons), short range to Japanese yards/reinforcement. Japan has had time to build high level forts. Requires timeconsuming repositioning of current forces.

Other high value areas (for the allies) are too far "behind the lines": Formosa, Phillippines, Saigon, Hong Kong, Singapore.

Wobbly, who I believe to be a better player than I, would have to make the call here.

Again, I know I'm a Noob, but I would like to know if I'm in the ballpark in my assessments.

(in reply to Andy Mac)
Post #: 353
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 9:52:46 AM   
mlees


Posts: 2263
Joined: 9/20/2003
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		OK. I had time to contemplate the universe while sitting in the head.

I am making a couple (or more) assumptions about this AAR that may not be accurate;

1) PzB is close (3000-4000 points) to an autovictory.

2) India is doomed, and will be overrun within two months. The points from that may put PzB "over-the-top".

With that in mind, I would attack Java, as Wobbly is contemplating.

An attack near his sea supply lines to India requires a response from PzB. It wont net enough base victory points for Wobbly (Bombay alone is worth more to Japan than Java), but it will bring a response from PzB. (PzB can, at this point, ignore what happens in the Marshalls or the Solomons, if my assumptions given above are correct.)

The question, which only Wobbly can answer with some authority, is what that response will be.

A) If PzB panics (which I don't think is likely), than he may pull valuable air units, and ground units bound for India, and send them to Java to fight Wobbly. This would be the best result for Wobbly, as it might give the India Front enough time to stabilize or stalemate.

B) If PzB is doing real well in China and/or Russia, air and ground units can be redeployed to counter Wobbly. This, however, will not slow down things in India, but it might provide enough "unit kill" vp's to stave off a PzB autovictory, if Wobbly stays smart and lucky, as PzB needs 4-1 kill points in his battles to retake Java. This is the most likely reponse to happen, given my limited knowledge of the players' disposition of forces.

C) PzB ignores the Java Gambit. While American heavy bombers can reach IJN shipping at/near Singapore from Java, they will be unescorted. Oil/Resource centers in the DEI can be pounded, some within escort range, some not. This will adversly affect Japanese Industry, but that will take some time (which you may not have) to happen. The kill victory points will be low, if PzB left little in Java to kill. This is the least palatable (for Wobbly) result.

Some points to consider:

KB is nearby. Going to Java direct will leave you mostly outside of Australian based LBA cover. Your CV's may not be usable for AC ferry duties, as they need to be providing fighter cover to the Allied shipping in the area.

(Canadian) Hurricanes and RCAF/RAAF/RNZAF Spitfires will not be able to rebase directly from OZ to Java. From Darwin, they can reach Timor, but not Kendari. From Makassar, they can not reach Seorabaja. Don't know about F4F's, but I dont think they can go direct from OZ to Java, but can if staging through West Timor. P40/Kittyhawk's can go from Darwin to Kendari, so they might be able to go from Broome to Java, but I doubt it. Hudsons and longer ranged aircraft CAN go direct to Java. Therefore, your gonna need CV fighter cover for a tense few days, to a week, as freighters ship in LB fighter cover to Java, and those planes uncrate ("repair").

Damaged ships are gonna hafta sail to Sydney/Pearl/West Coast for repair, as India is blockaded. Yuck. Yuck again.

Thanks for your patience...

(in reply to mlees)
Post #: 354
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 2:22:28 PM   
Honda


Posts: 953
Joined: 5/5/2004
From: Karlovac, Croatia
Status: offline 		I must admit it was hard to stay out of the discussion thus far. There are good ideas in here but they come with a flaw - it's too early in the game for Allies to go on the offensive. That's the first thing Wobbly should be aware of of. But when 5h1t hits the fan, and it did, those rules don't apply. So any offensive should be undertaken with the knowledege it can be easily smashed. The reasons are obvious - KB + Zero/Betty menace. A good Jap player will role with your offensive and cut you off as soon as he sees it is possible. Java is very probably stripped naked and even a succesfull invasion will amount to nothing as it can be easily isolated. Also the VP value of the bases is too small to make any difference. Therefore, Wobbly should take it easy and go step by step. The prioirity should be the base on the western tip of Timor. It would represent a threat to SRA. As you are starting to recive better planes you should try comitting your air power. The idea is to build up Timor as fast as possible. PzB will have to counter and put planes on Java for protection. That is where Wobbly goes in and achieves air superiority the good old fashion way - bomb the hell out of Java and any oil and resources in range. With time, Jap pilots will deteriorate significantly.
The plan has 2 perks and 1 flaw: CVs are out of danger (perk1), 1:1 losses are more then acceptable as long as there is plenty of action (perk2); the flaw is the plan takes time to work and that may be the only thing Wobbly really lacks.
The whole idea of this post is to warn Wobbly not to go in too deep and consolidate every gain. Jap isn't ready for the battle of attrition so that is exactly what Wobbly should try to force. Despite some losses, KB is still a superior CV force, so the battle should be made CVless. Wobbly should keep them is reserve to hit KB if and when it commits to the battle, possibly 2-3 days after it has commited.
One other thing. Diversions masking you real effort should be made where ever possible. Try parading a few transport TFs close to some major Central Pacific bases before you do Java proper. Good hunting.
My 2 cents.

(in reply to mlees)
Post #: 355
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 2:40:25 PM   
Arstavidios

 

Posts: 780
Joined: 11/19/2004
Status: offline 		When do the victory conditions come into effect? As soon as it reaches 4:1 for the Japanese or at the begining of 1943? If it is at the begining of 1943 then you have the time to get yourself together and mount an offensive. Attrition goes your way if there is plenty of action and you keep your losses below 4:1 it will work your way. Use your aircraft and smaller naval units to harras him without risking your major assets.

(in reply to Honda)
Post #: 356
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 5:27:37 PM   
mlees


Posts: 2263
Joined: 9/20/2003
From: San Diego
Status: offline 		I am estimating that it is early June, '42. The last Combat Report (on pg11) is dated 5/24/42, but Wobbly has posted some abbreviated reports since.

(in reply to Arstavidios)
Post #: 357
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 7:02:58 PM   
String


Posts: 2661
Joined: 10/7/2003
From: Estonia
Status: offline 		The problem with waiting is that those units that were in india will be free to flow back into SRA after they have conquered india. Which won't take much longer imho.. and ofcourse the fact that he needs to distract PzB NOW or india will fall..

(in reply to mlees)
Post #: 358
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 8:09:57 PM   
Honda


Posts: 953
Joined: 5/5/2004
From: Karlovac, Croatia
Status: offline 		If India is so doomed then why not distract PzB by taking Timor? It's relatively easy and it can provide excelent cover for ops in Java. So with India going down and all those divisions pouring down on DEI would't it be smarter to have a strong foothold in Timor instead of a few surroudable pockets of doomed Aussies in Java? Anyway, due to a dismal amount of VPs obtainable in Java wouldn't it be better to draw the Japs into a fight for which Wobbly will be better prepared? Not rush in headlessly? All Wobbly needs is a proper battle and keep the losses around 1:1. The idea is just to provoke fighting and inflict losses. The only thing left to lose are more surrendering troops and that must be denied to PzB. Any battle of attrition is bound to go the Allied way.

(in reply to String)
Post #: 359
RE: Naval battle at karachi - 1/5/2005 8:13:29 PM   
String


Posts: 2661
Joined: 10/7/2003
From: Estonia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Honda

If India is so doomed then why not distract PzB by taking Timor? It's relatively easy and it can provide excelent cover for ops in Java. So with India going down and all those divisions pouring down on DEI would't it be smarter to have a strong foothold in Timor instead of a few surroudable pockets of doomed Aussies in Java? Anyway, due to a dismal amount of VPs obtainable in Java wouldn't it be better to draw the Japs into a fight for which Wobbly will be better prepared? Not rush in headlessly? All Wobbly needs is a proper battle and keep the losses around 1:1. The idea is just to provoke fighting and inflict losses. The only thing left to lose are more surrendering troops and that must be denied to PzB. Any battle of attrition is bound to go the Allied way.


the thing is that if PzB doesn't react to java then he can take india, within a month or maybe two i think. If he does however his indian operation will be in trouble.

If he chooses to ignore Java then he will soon have 4e bombers pounding Palembang and a few other resource centers to dust. Timor however he can ignore for the time being

(in reply to Honda)
Post #: 360
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