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Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941

 
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Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/21/2005 7:16:03 AM   
Hirohito

 

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Hello All,
I have been researching Japanese sealift capabilities in December 1941. I started doing this because of a post I read somewhere in here, can't remember where that said "most japanese players land triple the historical number of troops in the phillipines....Japan lacked the sealift capacity to make such landings, which is why they didn't do them historically".

I thought, "if that statement about Japanese sealift capability is true, then something is very wrong with how the game models sealift capability".

I have found some information on this.

(this quote can be found at http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to Mark Parillo, in "The Japanese Merchant Marine in World War", p.75, at the begining of the war Japan had roughly 6.5 million tons of shipping under her control. At the start of hostilities, the Imperial Army drafted 519 vessels of 2,160,500 tons, two thirds of which (1,450,000 tons worth) were intended for landing purposes. Of that, 1,350,000 tons was earmarked for the Philippines and Malayan operations. The Navy drafted another 1,740,200 tons, most of which was presumably devoted to sustaining the fleet in foreign waters. Thus, nearly 4 million tons of Japan's 6.5 million total tons of shipping was drafted for military purposes, leaving 2.6 million tons for the civilian economy (i.e. the people who make the guns and bullets). Not only that, but the civilian economy actually needed 10 million tons of shipping to supply it, the remainder having been made up before the war by cargo carried in foreign (mostly Allied) cargo ships. So in actuality, the Japan started the war 3.5 million tons in the hole. The Japanese economy was being expected to fight a major, multi-theatre war, while subsisting on 25% of its prewar shipping requirements! Taken as a whole, it is difficult to imagine how Japan could have freed up any additional shipping to increase the potential size of the amphibious pool.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, that pretty much sums it up. Amphibious operations by the Japanese in the Pacific in Dec 1941 are a zero sum game. They have the sealift capability to make the landings they made historically AND NO MORE. So, if you are going to land more troops in PI you have to land fewer troops someplace else. Or you can't supply them.

So, it seems to me that the game models the sealift capability incorrectly.

Hirohito
Post #: 1
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/21/2005 7:23:42 AM   
Raverdave


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Interesting, but you cannot base your entire arguement on just one source.

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(in reply to Hirohito)
Post #: 2
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/21/2005 10:24:41 AM   
AmiralLaurent

 

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Both numbers of ships and capacity (if one point capacity = one ton, as I believe it is in case) are comparable in your citation and the game.

The main problem in WITP is that an infinite number of ships may load or unload in ports, so there are never ships waiting in ports, as was often the case (and still is). The end result is a huge increase of available lifting capacity at any time, compared to the total fleet capacity.

Then there is the fact that domestic economy doesn't need any shipping in game. So there is next to nil ship activity in game between Japanese ports or between Japan, Korea and China. Or on US and Australian coasts.

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 3
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/21/2005 4:16:19 PM   
Feinder


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I don't have any idea what the sealift capacity was. You could very well be spot on.

But also consider the fact that (likely) most of the Japanese AP/AK vessels in game, are standardized into 5 classes. Japan was using anything it could lay it's hands on (and I don't even want to open that can of wailing over captured ships). Japan was using anything that floated (some better than others) to move men and material around the Pacif. Matrix has boiled down litterally thousands of vessels, and their sum capacity, into 5 or 6 classes of transports. Many of the ships historically, were not suited to carry large infantry formations (let alone heavy equipment).

I'm not really saying yay or nay to anything here. I'm just saying that Matrix has brought the historical vessels into the constraints of the game engine, with some sacrifieces, in order to not make players go absolutely bonkers with the individual characteristics of thousands of non-standard cargo/transport vessels.

-F-

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Post #: 4
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/21/2005 4:21:24 PM   
mogami


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Hi, The source quoted refers to Japanese merchant ships (AK) The IJA had it's own (non merchant) ships AP and the Japanese merchant passanger liners (the 4.5k AP) were not part of the cargo carrying fleet and pretty much lost their routes when the war began. They are not suited to assaults but can and did move troops where the smaller AP (1.5k and 3k) loaded them.

The Japanese offensive lift capacity drops rapidly once war begins. The 3.0k AP are rather a waste for 1st Waves.

< Message edited by Mogami -- 1/21/2005 9:22:53 AM >


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Post #: 5
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/21/2005 4:21:36 PM   
Feinder


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From: Land o' Lakes, FL
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quote:

Then there is the fact that domestic economy doesn't need any shipping in game. So there is next to nil ship activity in game between Japanese ports or between Japan, Korea and China. Or on US and Australian coasts.


I dunno about you, but I've got a LOT of traffic moving along the Oz coast (don't know about US, that's Knavey's job). Lots of CS convoys (with escorts! *glares at LtFighter*) to move supplies and gas where it's needed. Patrols/LBA on KB early warning, and ASW duty. ASW TFs ready to squat on anything that makes bubbles. I don't want to give away my convoy system (2 PBEM games at the moment), but I've got a LOT of traffic, all over the place for that matter.

-F-

_____________________________

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Post #: 6
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/21/2005 6:36:33 PM   
AmiralLaurent

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Feinder

quote:

Then there is the fact that domestic economy doesn't need any shipping in game. So there is next to nil ship activity in game between Japanese ports or between Japan, Korea and China. Or on US and Australian coasts.


I dunno about you, but I've got a LOT of traffic moving along the Oz coast (don't know about US, that's Knavey's job). Lots of CS convoys (with escorts! *glares at LtFighter*) to move supplies and gas where it's needed. Patrols/LBA on KB early warning, and ASW duty. ASW TFs ready to squat on anything that makes bubbles. I don't want to give away my convoy system (2 PBEM games at the moment), but I've got a LOT of traffic, all over the place for that matter.

-F-


Yes but all these ships are carrying troops or supplies/fuel for military operations. No need of ships to bring manufactured goods to Tasmania or ressources from Darwin/Perth to Sidney. All the same off Japan or US, train will move supplies, oil and ressources from base to base without any shipping needed. In real life shipping was mandatory as railways have a limited capacity and one AK may replace tens of trains.

(in reply to Feinder)
Post #: 7
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/21/2005 10:39:40 PM   
Mike Scholl

 

Posts: 9349
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hirohito


I have found some information on this.

(this quote can be found at http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to Mark Parillo, in "The Japanese Merchant Marine in World War", p.75, at the begining of the war Japan had roughly 6.5 million tons of shipping under her control. At the start of hostilities, the Imperial Army drafted 519 vessels of 2,160,500 tons, two thirds of which (1,450,000 tons worth) were intended for landing purposes. Of that, 1,350,000 tons was earmarked for the Philippines and Malayan operations. The Navy drafted another 1,740,200 tons, most of which was presumably devoted to sustaining the fleet in foreign waters. Thus, nearly 4 million tons of Japan's 6.5 million total tons of shipping was drafted for military purposes, leaving 2.6 million tons for the civilian economy (i.e. the people who make the guns and bullets). Not only that, but the civilian economy actually needed 10 million tons of shipping to supply it, the remainder having been made up before the war by cargo carried in foreign (mostly Allied) cargo ships. So in actuality, the Japan started the war 3.5 million tons in the hole. The Japanese economy was being expected to fight a major, multi-theatre war, while subsisting on 25% of its prewar shipping requirements! Taken as a whole, it is difficult to imagine how Japan could have freed up any additional shipping to increase the potential size of the amphibious pool.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, that pretty much sums it up. Amphibious operations by the Japanese in the Pacific in Dec 1941 are a zero sum game. They have the sealift capability to make the landings they made historically AND NO MORE. So, if you are going to land more troops in PI you have to land fewer troops someplace else. Or you can't supply them.

So, it seems to me that the game models the sealift capability incorrectly.

Hirohito


HIROHITO Your information agrees 100% with the information I had from a British
source when I fought this battle 6 months ago. And got put down by most of the other
posters in the same general manner. Very few of the posters out there want to face
any possibility that the Japanese are even worse off than the game makes them. It's
especially annoying to the players that want to invade India or Australia and such to
find out they shouldn't have the shipping needed to do so.

I wish you well, but be prepared for some wonderous arguements about "wooden fleets"
and the "civilian economy not being represented in the game" and sampans and such.
No use pointing out that the Japanese civilian population had been heavily rationed
since well before the war began to conserve shipping. Nobody wants to hear it. To
many seem to have aquired all the information they want on the campaign from PACIFIC
WAR. A fun game, but about as realistic a simulation as AXIS AND ALLIES.

_____________________________


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Post #: 8
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/22/2005 6:23:11 AM   
jwilkerson


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The quoted source also agrees with the source I've sited in several posts Atushi Oi, Chapter 12 The Japanese Navy in ww2,NIP1986 which BTW says it gets its numbers from "History of the Maritime Commission of Japan-1947" and "US Strategic Bombing Survey Report - The War Against Japanese Transportation 1941- 1945" since the Parillo numbers and the Oi number agree to the ton ... a good guess would be that both are using the same underlying sources mentioned herein.

Do you want more sources ? Or is this sufficient to question the assumptions which lead to us having about 2.5 times the historical amount of shipping available at the start of the game ?

(in reply to Raverdave)
Post #: 9
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/23/2005 9:23:15 AM   
Hirohito

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


HIROHITO Your information agrees 100% with the information I had from a British
source when I fought this battle 6 months ago. And got put down by most of the other
posters in the same general manner. Very few of the posters out there want to face
any possibility that the Japanese are even worse off than the game makes them. It's
especially annoying to the players that want to invade India or Australia and such to
find out they shouldn't have the shipping needed to do so.

I wish you well, but be prepared for some wonderous arguements about "wooden fleets"
and the "civilian economy not being represented in the game" and sampans and such.
No use pointing out that the Japanese civilian population had been heavily rationed
since well before the war began to conserve shipping. Nobody wants to hear it. To
many seem to have aquired all the information they want on the campaign from PACIFIC
WAR. A fun game, but about as realistic a simulation as AXIS AND ALLIES.



Hi,
I've been doing a lot of research into "what if" scenarios for theatres other than the Pacific, also for other wars. I found a very very interesting book that boiled all of the "wat if" scenarios down to logistics. The book is called, "Supplying War : Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton by Martin van Creveld". Basically, Creveld says that you don't have to ask "what if" questions for most of the grand strategies that you would have adopted as the miltary genius if you have been in charge. Because, they were considered and dropped due to logistics.

When you look at a given theatre and the operations that were conducted there and wonder "why didn't the Allies simply......" and you think you are this big military genius, you have to stop and wonder if you really are that smart. The Military has smart people in charge of thinking about these things too, surely they thought up the same plan you did. But, why didn't they use it? I'll give an example using Operation Torch, the allied landings in north africa in 1942. They were nice, but unfortunately they were made in the wrong place. Where you really want to land is Tunisia and Libya. Landing in Algeria and Morrocco is not a strategic move it is a tactical move. But, if you land in Tunisia and Libya you eliminate the Afrika Corps only source of supply in one fell swoop. Surely the Allied commanders knew this. So, why not make this bold move and be done with the AFrika Corps in a few weeks instead of the 8 months it actually took. The answer is sealift capability. The allies simply did not have the sealift capability to move that many men and their supplies and keep them supplied in the face of the ensuing Axis counter attack.

Another example. The campaign in Italy. On the surface it appears that this campaign is totally mismanaged, totally inept. A cursory look at the map shows a strategy that polishes off the Germans in short order. After Sicily, land two armored armies across the straights at the toe of Italy, one army moves up the west coast of Italy the other moves up the east coast. Mark Clark's infantry moves up the center. At some point the Germans will turn and make a stand. You don't know exactly where but exactly where doesn't matter. When they turn to make a stand you launch a suprise attack with Patton's army at the northernmost part of the Mediterrean where Italy turns to meet France, say at Genoa. Then, Patton races east to Venice or maybe Ravenna. The Germans are cut off and you have a second Stalingrad.

Certainly Patton suggested this move. McArthur did a similar move in the Korean war at Inchon. So, why didn't the Allies trap the Germans in Italy in '43? The answer, sealift capability.

Another example. Why not an island hopping campaign in the Eastern meditterranean? With an eventual landing in Greece or Albania or Yugoslavia? Link up with the 30 divisions fighting in Yugoslavia against the GErmans? Probably capture all the Germans in Greece in the process. Why not? The answer, sealift capability.

Another example. Why didn't the Germans "simply" invade Britain in '40 after the fall of Paris? Answer, sealift capability.

The list goes on.

I think that Ceveld's point is really that supplies dictate strategy. If you want to win in warfare, first develop the logistical capabilities to support the widest possible choices of strategy. And, the Axis didn't and couldn't do this and even the Allies didn't do this until the outcome of the war was a foregone conclusion.

Hirohito

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 10
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/23/2005 10:05:38 AM   
pasternakski


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hirohito
I think that Ceveld's point is really that supplies dictate strategy. If you want to win in warfare, first develop the logistical capabilities to support the widest possible choices of strategy. And, the Axis didn't and couldn't do this and even the Allies didn't do this until the outcome of the war was a foregone conclusion.

Hirohito

Is this guy's name Creveld or Cretin? None of this makes any sense. The landings in North Africa were made where they were due to uncertainty about enemy and Vichy French capabilities and concern about the consequences of strategic failure (a "second Dieppe" on a large scale). The idea was to get ashore and stay ashore with untried troops executing a fragile amphibious operation in the face of an enemy of largely unknown strength - and loyalty.

A primary landing on mainland Italy was contemplated but dismissed for many of the same reasons - Sicily with its airfields and sizable numbers of troops would remain in the rear of such an invasion, which would have no significant air support unless and until airfields at Foggia and other locations were captured and made operational. German initial strengths and reinforcements were largely unknown - and remember that the "German tactical superiority" myth was still alive and well in 1943.

Patton landing at beaches further up the Italian peninsula? Hah! A pipe dream. Look at how the Anzio operation was botched much later. I have visions of vineyards filled with dead GIs and burning M4 tanks. Two flying armored columns with "Mark Clark's infantry moving up the center?" You must be joking. Study the Italian map and campaign for information on this, as it was known, "the best defensive terrain in Europe." The "middle" was, and is, the High Appenine. On both coasts were river line after swamp after convoluted hills ad infinitum.

As for Allied offensive operations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkans, go study the politics. Churchill wanted to explore these possibilities, but the Americans said "nyet," both because of their deep commitment to freeing France and their unwillingness to cross what would later emerge as the Communist hegemony over that part of Europe. It sure as hell wasn't supply - ask the poor British and Greek bastards who were overrun at Leros in 1943.

It's a lot more complex than you make it out to have been, Hiro.

< Message edited by pasternakski -- 1/23/2005 3:07:57 AM >

(in reply to Hirohito)
Post #: 11
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/23/2005 4:58:47 PM   
Hirohito

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pasternakski

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hirohito
I think that Ceveld's point is really that supplies dictate strategy. If you want to win in warfare, first develop the logistical capabilities to support the widest possible choices of strategy. And, the Axis didn't and couldn't do this and even the Allies didn't do this until the outcome of the war was a foregone conclusion.

Hirohito

Is this guy's name Creveld or Cretin? None of this makes any sense. The landings in North Africa were made where they were due to uncertainty about enemy and Vichy French capabilities and concern about the consequences of strategic failure (a "second Dieppe" on a large scale). The idea was to get ashore and stay ashore with untried troops executing a fragile amphibious operation in the face of an enemy of largely unknown strength - and loyalty.

A primary landing on mainland Italy was contemplated but dismissed for many of the same reasons - Sicily with its airfields and sizable numbers of troops would remain in the rear of such an invasion, which would have no significant air support unless and until airfields at Foggia and other locations were captured and made operational. German initial strengths and reinforcements were largely unknown - and remember that the "German tactical superiority" myth was still alive and well in 1943.

Patton landing at beaches further up the Italian peninsula? Hah! A pipe dream. Look at how the Anzio operation was botched much later. I have visions of vineyards filled with dead GIs and burning M4 tanks. Two flying armored columns with "Mark Clark's infantry moving up the center?" You must be joking. Study the Italian map and campaign for information on this, as it was known, "the best defensive terrain in Europe." The "middle" was, and is, the High Appenine. On both coasts were river line after swamp after convoluted hills ad infinitum.

As for Allied offensive operations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkans, go study the politics. Churchill wanted to explore these possibilities, but the Americans said "nyet," both because of their deep commitment to freeing France and their unwillingness to cross what would later emerge as the Communist hegemony over that part of Europe. It sure as hell wasn't supply - ask the poor British and Greek bastards who were overrun at Leros in 1943.

It's a lot more complex than you make it out to have been, Hiro.


Anzio failed because the British general in charge of the operation was a moron. The initial landings were unopposed. Kesselring was caught totally off guard. The road to Rome was clear, a mechanized scouting unit actually drove straight to Rome and encountered no Axis troops between the landing sites and Rome. All the British general had to do was say GO. But, he waited and waited and Kesselring ambushed him. The British general was no Patton, he was a second rate amateur. Kesselring vs a second rate amateur is very different than Kesselring vs Patton. Land Patton at Genoa and what could the Axis have done about it? What troops could Kesselring brought to bear in any reasonable time frame? The 30,000 troops that he used to trap the British moron at Anzio were good but they didn't have heavy armor. Patton would have rolled over them. When they eventually got there.

Italy does have the terrain you say and yet the allies did move up the peninsula without armored columns along the flanks, so your argument that they could not have moved up the peninsula WITH armored columns along the flanks does not make any sense. The Germans retreated in front of this advance and turned to make a stand when the terrain suited the defence best. Kesselring was not a fool. This is what actually happened, so your saying that it couldn't have happened is nonsensical.

A primary landing was made in mainland Italy, how else did the allies get there? I meant after Sicily, not before. The landings in Genoa to trap the entire German army in Italy were contemplated and rejected due to lack of sealift capability.

The original plan for Torch called for paratroop landings on the airfields in Tunisia and Libya backed up by seaborne landings at the beaches. This would have blocked reinforcements coming in from Sicily. Where would they have landed? They had to be moved in by air, the Italian navy did not have the sealift capacity to move 250,000 men and their equipment. The sealanes were contested by the Royal Navy anyway.

The eastern mediterranean option was rejected because the Americans were unwilling to divert sealift capability from northern France to the mediterranean. Stalin had not been given Greece and Yugoslavia as his sphere of influence, there was no conflict with Stalin over this point in '43. Actually, Stalin wanted landings ANYWHERE in Europe to relieve pressure on the Soviets as early as '42.

Creveld did not draw these conclusions directly, he just lists the sealift capabilities for these options, I drew the conclusions, so call me cretin, cretin.

Hirohito

(in reply to pasternakski)
Post #: 12
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/23/2005 6:16:34 PM   
Hirohito

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pasternakski



Patton landing at beaches further up the Italian peninsula? Hah! A pipe dream. Look at how the Anzio operation was botched much later. I have visions of vineyards filled with dead GIs and burning M4 tanks. Two flying armored columns with "Mark Clark's infantry moving up the center?" You must be joking. Study the Italian map and campaign for information on this, as it was known, "the best defensive terrain in Europe." The "middle" was, and is, the High Appenine. On both coasts were river line after swamp after convoluted hills ad infinitum.


It's a lot more complex than you make it out to have been, Hiro.


River lines and hills make it impossible for armor to advance along a coast? Tell that to Patton. Here is a quote from Patton in describing the terrain along the coast between Palermo and Messina. "The mountains are the worst I have ever seen," (Patton wrote on August 1, 1943). Patton showed how to move armor along a coast, if you run into something you can't roll over, board transports and go around it. Patton made four amphibious landings behind the Axis defenders on his race from Palermo to Messina. He wasn't facing convoluted hills, he was facing mountains. And multiple rivers. And some of the best German troops in the German army. Study Patton's Palermo to Messina operation for information on this.

You are saying that something could not be done when the person who had recommended it had just successfully conducted the same exact campaign.

You also say that the landings that actually happened could not have happened. The Americans landed at Salerno, just south of Naples while Montgomery landed at the toe in Calabria province. Let's see, Montgomery had armor and the 5th us army had armor, Monty moved up the east side of Italy while the 5th army moved up the west coast. So, you are saying that something that actually happened could not have happened. Perhaps you should study the Italian campaign for information on this.

It was Patton's suggestion to land armor on both coasts of Italy after Messina and recreate his Palermo to Messina movement. Patton envisioned repeating his "if you can't roll over it go around it" series of tactical landings in the rear of the retreating Germans, and when the German's turned to fight (which they historically did in the natural fortresses in the Liri valley just below Rome) land his army at Genoa then race across Italy to the Adriatic sealing the German's fate. Patton was a historian/general and always looked to history for advice on how to wage campaigns. Only once before in all of history had Rome been taken from the south. Patton advised against this.

The plan was impossible because of the lack of sealift capability because Eisenhower refused to release sealift capability from England and divert it to the Med.

Hirohito

(in reply to pasternakski)
Post #: 13
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/23/2005 11:30:32 PM   
mlees


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quote:

I'll give an example using Operation Torch, the allied landings in north africa in 1942. They were nice, but unfortunately they were made in the wrong place. Where you really want to land is Tunisia and Libya. Landing in Algeria and Morrocco is not a strategic move it is a tactical move. But, if you land in Tunisia and Libya you eliminate the Afrika Corps only source of supply in one fell swoop.


I respectfully disagree. Landing in Tunisia and Libya would have put the invasion forces well within range of Axis air units in Sicily. The Invasion forces would have been sighted before the the landings actually took place, giving the air units time to pound the guys while they are still on the ships. (Rommel was still in western Egypt, at this time.) Further, it might be possible for the Axis to fly in air units to Algeria, usefull in hitting your supply convoys headed for Tunisia. The Vichy would not have been able to protest effectively, I think. This (my) same argument goes against landing in the Genoa area, in mid '43. Too far from supporting airbases.

In WiTP, I have learned to take a stepping stone approach to the campaigns. Invade too far from your LBA cover (and well into your opponents LBA cover) is asking for trouble.

There is a reason why the Allied commanders did what they did. Sometime it was shipping shortages (for the build up to Overlord, for example), but other times there are tactical concerns, as well.

quote:

Anzio failed because the British general in charge of the operation was a moron.


Just to pick nits:
quote:

General Clark designated Maj. Gen. John P. Lucas, U.S. Army, commander of the Fifth Army's VI Corps, to lead the invasion and gave him two missions. First, Lucas was to divert enemy strength from the south and, in anticipation of a swift and violent enemy reaction, to prepare defensive positions. The vague second portion of his orders directed him to move toward the Alban Hills and points east for the link-up with the remainder of the Fifth Army on D-day plus 7.
I googled "Anzio", the first link. It was an American who dithered, not a Brit. He probably dithered due to the orders given above.

(in reply to Hirohito)
Post #: 14
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/24/2005 12:45:00 AM   
Andy Mac

 

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Im fairly sure it was Lucas (an American) at Anzio commanding 6th US Corps with 1 US and 1 UK Division (later replaced by a US Division as 1st British couldnt replace the casualties they had taken) not a British General...

It was politically supported by Churchill (over the objections of most of the British Army Chiefs although was I think supported by Alexander who wasnt the most hard driving commander)

Andy

Mlees beat me to it ;)

< Message edited by Andy Mac -- 1/23/2005 10:45:30 PM >

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Post #: 15
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/24/2005 12:49:48 AM   
Andy Mac

 

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Also I think in WITP (as the allies) we are cavalier with the risks we run and acceptable casualty rates in our seabourne offensives.

The commanders in reality had to try and protect the lives of their men and not take exessive risks like exceeding the LBA cover.

Italy everyone wanted to land further NOrth than Salerno (Fleet/ Navy and Ground) but no one was willing to take on the Luftwaffe outside of fighter cover from Sicily so Salerno it was.

(in reply to Andy Mac)
Post #: 16
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/24/2005 2:03:00 AM   
eMonticello


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Here's what Matloff and Snell said about Torch. The War Planners' choice for landings when the initial plans were drawn up in the winter of 41-42 was in response to a possible German counterattack from Spanish Morocco. They didn't believe that Casablanca port could keep a large army in supply, so they initially planned to wage an offensive airwar to blunt the counterattack.

"On 26 December the planners presented a draft paper on the "Northwest Africa Project," which served to show on what scale the operation would have to be begun, given little or no opposition to the landings and initial occupation and about three months before the Germans could mount a heavy counterattack from Spain. On the critical question of the size of the forces required, the paper was a compromise between American and British views. The American planners estimated the requirements for ground forces during the first three months at a somewhat higher figure than the original British estimate, and the ultimate requirement for both ground and air forces at about three times the figure proposed by the British planners. They compromised on an estimate of requirements for the first three
months of the operation- -six divisions (including two armored divisions), supported by a fair sized air force (385 aircraft), and by heavy antiaircraft defenses (114 heavy guns and 252 light guns) for port and base facilities. The American ground forces taking part would be an amphibious division, an armored division, and an infantry division. The American air units !the main body of the air force) would be two pursuit groups, one medium bomber group, one light bomber group, and one observation group. The British would furnish three divisions, three fighter squadrons (forty-eight planes), and the antiaircraft units. British and American forces would each provide their own service units.

Behind this compromise lay a serious disagreement on the concept of the operation. The British originally proposed using only, one American division (a Marine division), and about four British divisions during the first three months. The Americans originally proposed using during the same period the equivalent of about one British and six American divisions (including one Marine and two armored divisions). The explanation of the difference was that the American planners anticipated, as the British did not, a need for sending land forces into Algeria before the operation was over. The American planners in effect proposed that U. S. forces should carry out the operation in French Morocco and the British forces in Algeria, as the Prime Minister had indicated. They were willing to agree with the British planners that the initial British landing at Algiers should be on a small scale -one armored brigade ; about the same as an American regiment), one infantry brigade group (about the same as an American regiment reinforced), three fighter squadrons, and two antiaircraft regiments. But they anticipated that ultimately the eastward extension of British and American forces from their base on the Atlantic (at Casablanca) would involve large forces. How large, would depend on whether the area to be held would be only the triangle Casablanca-Agadir-Oran, or would include Algeria. Even in the former case, the American planners calculated that a ground force of five infantry divisions and two armored divisions, supported by an air force of seven pursuit groups and six to eight bombardment groups ( including three groups of heavy bombers) would he necessary. On this basis, the American estimate called for transporting over 200,000 men to North Africa as against the 100,000 men required in the British estimate. In case the operation wire extended further eastward to occupy and hold Algeria, the American planners foresaw the need for a force half again as large--about 300,000 men.

The American view, as the Army planning staff explained, was that if "the operation is worth undertaking it should be done in sufficient strength to give a reasonable chance of ultimate success." Although the staff did not regard even the forces in the American estimate as large enough to be certain to hold against the heaviest attack that the Germans might launch, the staff doubted that the Germans considered the area of enough importance to make so heavy an attack, and also pointed out that a force mainly dependent on the Atlantic ports and the rail and road communications therefore could scarcely be much larger.

Although it was impossible to do any practical planning by simply splitting the difference between estimates based on two such different views of the North African project, it was necessary for the planners to agree at once on a tentative estimate for submission to the President and the Prime Minister. They therefore settled on a temporary compromise, whereby they presented- as upper and lower limits-two sets of figures for ground forces and a fairly high estimate for air forces (some 1,400 planes) with a qualification that the size of British and French forces would be "affected by the assistance that may be furnished by French and Spanish units in North Africa." The force was still not large enough, from the American point of view, to achieve the stated objective: "to hold French North Africa against possible German attacks through Spain and Italy and to open the Mediterranean route." But by stating this objective, the planners at least made it clear that the force had to be a large one, particularly in air units, which had to be strong enough to undertake "offensive air operations against Axis bases and ports in the Mediterranean area" on which counterattacks might be based. "

http://www.army.mil/cmh-pg/books/wwii/Sp1941-42/index.htm

_____________________________


Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example. -- Pudd'nhead Wilson

(in reply to Andy Mac)
Post #: 17
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/24/2005 1:47:20 PM   
Raverdave


Posts: 6520
Joined: 2/8/2002
From: Melb. Australia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson



Do you want more sources ? Or is this sufficient to question the assumptions which lead to us having about 2.5 times the historical amount of shipping available at the start of the game ?



Nope, more than happy with that.

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Never argue with an idiot, he will only drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.

(in reply to jwilkerson)
Post #: 18
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/24/2005 1:52:24 PM   
Raverdave


Posts: 6520
Joined: 2/8/2002
From: Melb. Australia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pasternakski



As for Allied offensive operations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkans, go study the politics. Churchill wanted to explore these possibilities, but the Americans said "nyet,"


Don't get me started on THAT wanker Churchill ! He still had dreams of attacking up through the Dardenells, a'la 1915, as late as '43 iirc, much to the horror of the Britsh high command.

_____________________________




Never argue with an idiot, he will only drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.

(in reply to pasternakski)
Post #: 19
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/25/2005 3:50:05 AM   
Don Bowen


Posts: 8183
Joined: 7/13/2000
From: Georgetown, Texas, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Hirohito

(this quote can be found at http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to Mark Parillo, in "The Japanese Merchant Marine in World War", p.75, at the begining of the war Japan had roughly 6.5 million tons of shipping under her control. At the start of hostilities, the Imperial Army drafted 519 vessels of 2,160,500 tons, two thirds of which (1,450,000 tons worth) were intended for landing purposes. Of that, 1,350,000 tons was earmarked for the Philippines and Malayan operations. The Navy drafted another 1,740,200 tons, most of which was presumably devoted to sustaining the fleet in foreign waters. Thus, nearly 4 million tons of Japan's 6.5 million total tons of shipping was drafted for military purposes, leaving 2.6 million tons for the civilian economy (i.e. the people who make the guns and bullets). Not only that, but the civilian economy actually needed 10 million tons of shipping to supply it, the remainder having been made up before the war by cargo carried in foreign (mostly Allied) cargo ships. So in actuality, the Japan started the war 3.5 million tons in the hole. The Japanese economy was being expected to fight a major, multi-theatre war, while subsisting on 25% of its prewar shipping requirements! Taken as a whole, it is difficult to imagine how Japan could have freed up any additional shipping to increase the potential size of the amphibious pool.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, it seems to me that the game models the sealift capability incorrectly.

Hirohito


Using data from Ugly Ducklings - Japan's WWII Liberty Type Standard Ships. Japan had, at the beginning of the war:
1,581 steamships of 4.1 million gross tons
756 motor ships of 1.5 million gross tons
17,992 wooden trading and fishing vessels totaling 1.07 million tons

This totals 6.67 million tons, approximately equal to Parillo's figures.

I note that Scenario 15, V1.3 lists 1503 Japanese ships of type AK, AP, and TK, plus another 221 converted types (31 PC, 94 MSW, 76 PG, 20 Naval Auxiliaries). Of these, 1179 are in commission at the start of the war (987 AK/AP/TK, 185 patrol/minesweepers, 10 auxiliary).

Ignoring the wooden fleet:
2337 ships historically, 1179 in scenario 15.

(in reply to Hirohito)
Post #: 20
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/25/2005 4:55:07 AM   
Mike Scholl

 

Posts: 9349
Joined: 1/1/2003
From: Kansas City, MO
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Don Bowen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hirohito

(this quote can be found at http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to Mark Parillo, in "The Japanese Merchant Marine in World War", p.75, at the begining of the war Japan had roughly 6.5 million tons of shipping under her control. At the start of hostilities, the Imperial Army drafted 519 vessels of 2,160,500 tons, two thirds of which (1,450,000 tons worth) were intended for landing purposes. Of that, 1,350,000 tons was earmarked for the Philippines and Malayan operations. The Navy drafted another 1,740,200 tons, most of which was presumably devoted to sustaining the fleet in foreign waters. Thus, nearly 4 million tons of Japan's 6.5 million total tons of shipping was drafted for military purposes, leaving 2.6 million tons for the civilian economy (i.e. the people who make the guns and bullets). Not only that, but the civilian economy actually needed 10 million tons of shipping to supply it, the remainder having been made up before the war by cargo carried in foreign (mostly Allied) cargo ships. So in actuality, the Japan started the war 3.5 million tons in the hole. The Japanese economy was being expected to fight a major, multi-theatre war, while subsisting on 25% of its prewar shipping requirements! Taken as a whole, it is difficult to imagine how Japan could have freed up any additional shipping to increase the potential size of the amphibious pool.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, it seems to me that the game models the sealift capability incorrectly.

Hirohito


Using data from Ugly Ducklings - Japan's WWII Liberty Type Standard Ships. Japan had, at the beginning of the war:
1,581 steamships of 4.1 million gross tons
756 motor ships of 1.5 million gross tons
17,992 wooden trading and fishing vessels totaling 1.07 million tons

This totals 6.67 million tons, approximately equal to Parillo's figures.

I note that Scenario 15, V1.3 lists 1503 Japanese ships of type AK, AP, and TK, plus another 221 converted types (31 PC, 94 MSW, 76 PG, 20 Naval Auxiliaries). Of these, 1179 are in commission at the start of the war (987 AK/AP/TK, 185 patrol/minesweepers, 10 auxiliary).

Ignoring the wooden fleet:
2337 ships historically, 1179 in scenario 15.


Perhaps it's the loads themselves that need looking at.....During the war the US found
that to ship 1 ton of "average military cargo" oversesa took 2.36 tons of shipping space.
Not the Japanese didn't have as many bulky vehicles to ship, so they would do some-
what better.....but even if it only took them 1.86 tons of shipping space to move 1 ton
of their "average military cargo", it would almost double the shipping resources needed.
In actual game play, the Japanese wind up with a LOT of extra shipping sitting around
waiting for something to carry.....They really don't need to build merchant shipping at
all.....This feels very strange when compared to the numbers cited by Hirohito and others.

_____________________________


(in reply to Don Bowen)
Post #: 21
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/25/2005 5:03:29 AM   
Mynok


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Joined: 11/30/2002
Status: offline
I had a similar thought in that perhaps the genericized cargo vessels and thus genericized capacities created an overly generous model.

(in reply to Mike Scholl)
Post #: 22
RE: Japanese sealift capabilities in dec 1941 - 1/25/2005 9:55:48 AM   
bradfordkay

 

Posts: 8683
Joined: 3/24/2002
From: Olympia, WA
Status: offline
I've been noticing that the pace of operations, not only in PBEM games, but also against the Japanese AI, has been much ahead of historical schedule. Since I haven't really looked at the game from the Japanese side yet, I've been trying to decide if it is because of too many ships available too early, or because of the first turn extra movement rule.

_____________________________

fair winds,
Brad

(in reply to Mynok)
Post #: 23
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