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Finland in WW2: What if....

 
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Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/14/2005 12:09:30 PM   
Nemesis

 

Posts: 126
Joined: 1/11/2001
From: Järvenpää, Finland
Status: offline 		Last sunday was the 65th anniversary of the ending of the Winter War. And due to that, there has been quite a bit of discussion about the war (both Winter War and the Continuation War) in Finland recently. I talked about this on another forum as well, but I would be interested in hearing your opinions as well:

During the war in the East, how much could the Finns have changed the outcome of the war as a whole? We know that Finns never attacked against Leningrad and they made no real attempts in cutting the Murmansk-railroad. But, what if they had?

What if Finns had attacked against Leningrad, both directly against the defensive-perimeter (most of the Red Army troops defending Leningrad were placed against Germans, so the Finns could have caused some serious problems to the RA. Also, right after the attack-phase, the RA-units in the Isthmus were seriously damaged and the Finnish Army outmanned them about 3:1), and they would have had to split their forces between north (against the Finns) and south (against the Germans), which would have made it easier for the Germans to attack the city. Also, Finns could have actively attacked towards Germans around the Lake Ladoga. Considering how close the Germans managed to get, they wouldn't have had to go very far to reach the German positions. I think combined with those two attacks (against Leningrad, and around Ladoga), Finns could have sealed the fate of Leningrad had they wanted to do so.

Fall of Leningrad would have meant that frontline in the Karelian Isthmus would have disappeared, and the frontline in the Svir would be seriously shortened (since Germans would be there as well). I would guess that Finns would have had about 10 extra divisions to spare at that point (Isthmus had about 8 during the attack-phase IIRC). They could have used those forces (along with the existing forces in Rukajärvi and Eastern Karelia) in an attack towards Murmansk-railroad, and I think that they could have pulled it off, since the railroad wasn't that far off.

I would say that if Finns had actively done something like that, Leningrad would have fallen in late 1941, with the railroad being cut in early 1942. losing the railroad would have seriously harmed the RA troops fighting around Murmansk, and they would have surrendered at some point. And that would mean that Germans could have moved around 200.000 - 300.000 troops from Lapland and Norway to other fronts.

In your opinion: could the Finns have done something like that militarily, if they had wanted to? How much of an impact would that have had in the war in the East as whole?

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RE: Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/14/2005 1:37:20 PM   
Yamato hugger

 

Posts: 5475
Joined: 10/5/2004
Status: offline 		I think the Finns allied with Germany only because the Russians attacked them and they saw it as their chance to reclaim their lost land. If the Russians had not hit them, they would have remained neutral like Sweden. I also think they were intelligent enough to realize what a lunitic Hitler truely was. The Finns didnt attack because they knew what would happen to them at the end of the war, regardless if Hitler won or lost. In other words, same deal as Spain.

But, if they had cut the Murmansk rail line, I dont think that in and of itself would have caused Russia much concern. Archanglsk was still there (yes, I know it was iced in during the winter, but out of need, they would have kept the sea lane open with icebreakers). An assult on Lenningrad would have resulted in Lenningrad falling, and little else. True, the German forces opposing the city would have been free to go elsewhere, but the Russian front is a very large front.

(in reply to Nemesis)
Post #: 2
RE: Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/14/2005 2:16:56 PM   
SuomiKp


Posts: 45
Joined: 1/29/2005
Status: offline 		I have always thought that Finland had no option like remaining neutral

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RE: Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/14/2005 2:27:43 PM   
Nemesis

 

Posts: 126
Joined: 1/11/2001
From: Järvenpää, Finland
Status: offline 		Finland didn't really have an option as far as their choice of friends was concerned. USSR was quite hostile towards Finland after the Winter War, and Western Allies were not an option, since Germany surrounded Finland (and Sweden) in that direction. Finland did try to form an alliance with Sweden, but that was no-no for USSR. So Germany was the only option.

I agree that politically Finland made the right choice in not attacking Leningrad and the railroad. After the war, Finland would have propably been occupied if they pulled a stunt like that.

As to the fall of Leningrad... Well, it was somewhat near Moscow area of operations. I don't know how many divisions Germans had surrounding Leningrad, but those troops could have been used in their attack against Moscow. Whether that would have been anough to actually take Moscow, is another issue altogether.

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RE: Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/14/2005 6:08:41 PM   
gunny

 

Posts: 995
Joined: 3/1/2003
Status: offline 		Finland did many things right. That was one of them. As previously stated they avoided becoming a Warsaw pact puppet state by showing their Neutral posture. And even if Finland closed the 60 mile gap to Leningrad the outcome of the War would not have changed.

Finland provided a volunteer battalion to SS Wiking earlier. They signed a contract of service for 2 years, and when the contract expired the Finns headed home, the Germans even gave them a pompous fairwell ceremony in recognition. Again this did not go un-noticed by the Soviets. By the end of the War Finland was required to pay in retribution and surrender the majority of the isthmus.

The threat of Soviet invasion always loomed post WW2. The Finns made sure they were steadfast neutral as ot not provide any excuse for invasion. Hence the Cold War term "Finlandization" which was coined and used whenever a small country adopted such neutrality.

After all the Finns had nothing to prove to the World. The David and Goliath struggle in the Winter War struck a major blow to the prestige of the Soviet Union. Ironically the Soviets learned from this and were better prepared for Bararossa. thats another story.

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RE: Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/14/2005 8:34:58 PM   
Lascar


Posts: 489
Joined: 10/7/2000
Status: offline 		If the Finns had attacked Leningrad in late 41, in cooperation with the Germans, then Leningrad most likely would have fallen before the Soviet winter counter-offensive. The German 16th and 18th Armies would have been able to shift their axis of advance towards Moscow. Even if Moscow would not have fallen the German position in 1942 would have been much more favorable and Fall Blau would have had a greater chance of success with the additional divisions of Army Group North available for possible transfer to the south of Russia and the Ukraine.

Even if none of the divisions of AGN had been transferred to the south at the very least the 11th army in the Crimea would not have been transfer to AGN and would have remained in the south either acting as a strategic reserve for army groups B and A or perhaps going into the line along the Don bolstering the Romanians. The Germans may not have conquered the Caucuses but at the very least the Red Army would not have shattered the Don front and encircled the Sixth army. The disaster of Stalingrad would most likely not have happened.

This would not have lead to an eventual German victory--the combined economic and military power of the Western Allies and the Soviet Union would have eventually prevailed--but the war would have been extended for several more years with even greater loss of life. So it is a good thing that the Finns did not continue their offensive towards Leningrad/Murmansk.

(in reply to Nemesis)
Post #: 6
RE: Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/14/2005 10:23:03 PM   
gunny

 

Posts: 995
Joined: 3/1/2003
Status: offline 		in response

I don't believe the Finns closing the Gap to Leningrad in 1941 would have made much of a difference in lengthening the war. Its conjecture now but Army Group North had the resources and means for a quick victory in Leningrad with or without the Finns.
What is known. Army Group North made errors in stopping to consolidate even after lead elements broke through the last defensive line in Leningrad only to be recalled. This set the wheels in motion for a long seige. Even if the Finns pushed through, without the German 16th and 18th divisions attacking in force it was a moot point.

It is more important that Hitler's redirecting of Army Group Centre away from Moscow towards Leningrad was the Focal Point in time that set Hitler up for failure. The Beginning of the End.

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RE: Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/15/2005 2:04:34 AM   
IronDuke_slith

 

Posts: 1595
Joined: 6/30/2002
From: Manchester, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: gunny

It is more important that Hitler's redirecting of Army Group Centre away from Moscow towards Leningrad was the Focal Point in time that set Hitler up for failure. The Beginning of the End.


Gunny,

Teasers like this take threads off topic to the tune of about 300 posts....

If you want to create the next Monster thread, post a thread elaborating your opinion on German Strategic mistakes in the campaign of 1941.

Regarding this, to save boring everyone with my own thoughts, I'll quote Yamato who probably sums up my feelings in far fewer words than I would have done (luckily for you )

quote:

I think the Finns allied with Germany only because the Russians attacked them and they saw it as their chance to reclaim their lost land. If the Russians had not hit them, they would have remained neutral like Sweden. I also think they were intelligent enough to realize what a lunitic Hitler truely was. The Finns didnt attack because they knew what would happen to them at the end of the war, regardless if Hitler won or lost. In other words, same deal as Spain.

But, if they had cut the Murmansk rail line, I dont think that in and of itself would have caused Russia much concern. Archanglsk was still there (yes, I know it was iced in during the winter, but out of need, they would have kept the sea lane open with icebreakers). An assult on Lenningrad would have resulted in Lenningrad falling, and little else. True, the German forces opposing the city would have been free to go elsewhere, but the Russian front is a very large front.


The Russian winter counteroffensive might have been less destructive if the Germans had had extra infantry in the line, but I don't think the completion of the Leningrad operation would have given the Germans the sort of extra troops they required to win in 1941. An extra infantry Army would not have helped take Moscow.

regards,
IronDuke

< Message edited by IronDuke -- 3/15/2005 12:14:33 AM >

(in reply to gunny)
Post #: 8
RE: Finland in WW2: What if.... - 3/15/2005 7:27:46 AM   
testarossa


Posts: 952
Joined: 9/24/2004
From: Vancouver, Canada
Status: offline 		Well, I can't provide any proof.

But the way russians treated Finland after WW2 suggests that some kind of the secret treaty was made in the late 1941. Finland kept the pressure off the Leningrad and Russians treated Finland very fair. The only liberated (defeated)country which was allowed to keep prewar government, Finland actually got back some of the territories taken in 1940.

This is highly speculative, of course.

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(in reply to IronDuke_slith)
Post #: 9
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