Another Midway "what-if" (Full Version)

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m10bob -> Another Midway "what-if" (4/4/2006 3:53:18 PM)

Yamamoto did not like going into "the great battle" not knowing where those pesky American flat-tops were, and had planned on having one of his subs station at French Frigate Shoals *to refuel seaplanes* which would rendezvous there, enroute to scout Pearl Harbor.
Due to radio security, he never got the message the sub failed to meet with the planes, and that mission was scrubbed.
Hearing nothing, Yamamoto assumed nothing had been seen at Pearl, so he was still in the dark.
The timing (had it gone off on time) might have revealed the American carriers outbound to Midway!!
As far as WITP is concerned, I wonder if it is possible to refuel anything with subs??
Maybe a submersible CS ??[&:]



Mike Scholl -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/4/2006 6:07:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: m10bob

Yamamoto did not like going into "the great battle" not knowing where those pesky American flat-tops were, and had planned on having one of his subs station at French Frigate Shoals *to refuel seaplanes* which would rendezvous there, enroute to scout Pearl Harbor.
Due to radio security, he never got the message the sub failed to meet with the planes, and that mission was scrubbed.
Hearing nothing, Yamamoto assumed nothing had been seen at Pearl, so he was still in the dark.
The timing (had it gone off on time) might have revealed the American carriers outbound to Midway!!
As far as WITP is concerned, I wonder if it is possible to refuel anything with subs??
Maybe a submersible CS ??[&:]


Problem was, when the sub arrived, the US Navy was already there setting up it's own seaplane base.
Wasn't a missed opportunity so much as a blocked one. The fact that Yamamoto could "assume" from the lack of any message that nothing was seen is pretty lame. Any reasonable communications plan would have included both a positive and a negative method of relaying the message. The Midway Plan is awash with suppositions, assumptions, and wishfull thinking. He should have read his Moltke. "There are always three courses of action available to your opponant..., from which he inevitably choses the fourth". Too many Japanese plans were based on the opposition doing exactly what the Japanese wanted them to do. As soon as the other side did something unexpected, the plan started to unravel.



niceguy2005 -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/4/2006 6:14:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

Too many Japanese plans were based on the opposition doing exactly what the Japanese wanted them to do. As soon as the other side did something unexpected, the plan started to unravel.

Ah yes, group think, how many "great" plans have been scuttled by too much group think. Shows why a little push-back is helpful in planning.



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/4/2006 7:06:39 PM)

Butterbar: "Well Sgt., I wonder how many rocks are in this field?"

Seasoned SGT. "Sixteen thousand, four hundred and twelve, sir!"



MarcA -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/4/2006 8:42:38 PM)

What they needed is some sort of submarine that could actually carry a float plane. But that's just a crazy idea. [:)]



ny59giants -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/4/2006 9:54:19 PM)

Japanese naval table games up to Midway and especially the ones in the fall of '41 for the Hawaii Attack had them always rolling "boxcars" every time. They did not become realistic until after Midway.
Yamamoto split his CV's to send a diversion to Alaska which should never have happened. That was a bigger mistake IMO. [:-][:-]



spence -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/4/2006 11:51:07 PM)

quote:

What they needed is some sort of submarine that could actually carry a float plane. But that's just a crazy idea


Funny that Operation K as it was called was any kind of problem at all. According to WitP the IJN has the capability to conduct aerial search and recon missions with their Glenns from a large number of submarines.

Actually the mid-ocean launch and recovery of Glenns for generalized search missions is BOGUS. The Glenn itself was likely to be damaged in either take-off or landing even in a protected anchorage. The submarine had no room for either a significant workshop or a decent store of spare parts. That is why the Glenns were used only for reconnaisance of specific locations. More often than not they were ONE-SHOT assets. And in order to have the best possible chance of making the one shot count the submarines sought out an isolated lagoon or protected bay in which conduct their flight operations.

It is interesting to note that in the TROMs of the various aviation-capable subs at Combined Fleet the embarkation of a Glenn for one of these reconnaisance missions as well as each flight (successful or not) appears to be worthy of specific mention. For most of these aviation-capable subs there is no mention of an embarked plane or any aviation operations on most of their patrols.
Curious about the use of the Glenn I found rather scant mention of it on the web other than at Combined Fleet. There does appear to be a flurry of Glenn reconnaisance missions taking place in April 42 in the South Pacific/Southwest Pacific. Although some successful flights were made the Glenns were seemingly always wrecked after one or two flights. Several became inoperable before completing any missions.

Returning to Operation K. The mission involved refuelling either Emilys or Mavises that launched from Kwajalein at French Frigate Shoals and then reconning Pearl Harbor. Considering the mission within the context of WitP it would seem that one of the following must be true:
1) Glenns can launch/recover in mid-ocean multiple times and all aviation capable IJN submarines routinely embarked same. It necessarily follows from this that the IJN Operations Staff was really stupid (probably not).
2) Glenns really do need an isolated and safe bay/lagoon to launch/recover and no such place existed or was considered safe within the Hawaiian Islands. In this case WitP portrays fantasy capabilities for the Glenn (most likely IMHO).
3) If such a location did exist the production/supply of Glenns had been used up by the previous month and therefore the use of Kwajalein's a/c was necessary. In this case WitP grossly overstates the production/availability of this a/c (probably somewhat true anyway - it does this for a lot of planes; Japanese and Allied).



ChezDaJez -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 12:03:41 AM)

quote:

2) Glenns really do need an isolated and safe bay/lagoon to launch/recover and no such place existed or was considered safe within the Hawaiian Islands. In this case WitP portrays fantasy capabilities for the Glenn (most likely IMHO).


Except Glenns were launched and recovered off the US West Coast during the war. One was even used to try to start a forest fire in Oregon.

Chez



el cid again -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 1:10:31 PM)

quote:

Actually the mid-ocean launch and recovery of Glenns for generalized search missions is BOGUS. The Glenn itself was likely to be damaged in either take-off or landing even in a protected anchorage. The submarine had no room for either a significant workshop or a decent store of spare parts. That is why the Glenns were used only for reconnaisance of specific locations. More often than not they were ONE-SHOT assets. And in order to have the best possible chance of making the one shot count the submarines sought out an isolated lagoon or protected bay in which conduct their flight operations.


That is a bit harsh. Warrant Office Fujida deliberately made two bombing runs in the same Glen, and still returned with it to his submarine, where he proposed (to the exec) what became the I-400 concept.

A more germane comment would be that a Glen cannot operate in a significant sea - and THAT is why MOST WITP missions are bogus. IF the sea is calm enough they can take off and land just fine. Strategic recon is useless if you don't get the plane back - how do you know what it found? In fact, Glens managed PHOTOGRAPHIC runs over Pearl Harbor BOTH before and after the attack which began the war. The deliberate professionalism involved in this - particularly the after sortee - imply a real capability - and the Japanese won't tell us about intel successes - as a matter of principle - unless we figure it out first - and usually not even then. We probably don't know about most similar incidents. But there are many many cases where Glens were indeed lost - which is to be expected operating far from home from a submersable base which might not be in sight - without GPS or other modern navaids. And there were many conditions under which a Glen could not operate at all. But the biggest problem was time - it took too long for anything a Glen learned to get to any distant place - so by the time it got there (information I mean) it was not very useful. It was much more likely to be useful tactically by the submarine itself. Japan was more successful at this than any other nation - and most major subarine powers had tried.



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 3:01:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

quote:

Actually the mid-ocean launch and recovery of Glenns for generalized search missions is BOGUS. The Glenn itself was likely to be damaged in either take-off or landing even in a protected anchorage. The submarine had no room for either a significant workshop or a decent store of spare parts. That is why the Glenns were used only for reconnaisance of specific locations. More often than not they were ONE-SHOT assets. And in order to have the best possible chance of making the one shot count the submarines sought out an isolated lagoon or protected bay in which conduct their flight operations.


That is a bit harsh. Warrant Office Fujida deliberately made two bombing runs in the same Glen, and still returned with it to his submarine, where he proposed (to the exec) what became the I-400 concept.

A more germane comment would be that a Glen cannot operate in a significant sea - and THAT is why MOST WITP missions are bogus. IF the sea is calm enough they can take off and land just fine. Strategic recon is useless if you don't get the plane back - how do you know what it found? In fact, Glens managed PHOTOGRAPHIC runs over Pearl Harbor BOTH before and after the attack which began the war. The deliberate professionalism involved in this - particularly the after sortee - imply a real capability - and the Japanese won't tell us about intel successes - as a matter of principle - unless we figure it out first - and usually not even then. We probably don't know about most similar incidents. But there are many many cases where Glens were indeed lost - which is to be expected operating far from home from a submersable base which might not be in sight - without GPS or other modern navaids. And there were many conditions under which a Glen could not operate at all. But the biggest problem was time - it took too long for anything a Glen learned to get to any distant place - so by the time it got there (information I mean) it was not very useful. It was much more likely to be useful tactically by the submarine itself. Japan was more successful at this than any other nation - and most major subarine powers had tried.


I had a book once called I-BOAT SKIPPER..Have not read it in years, but IIRC those Glenn flights over Oregon were continuous for a short time. This would indicate the ability for repeat flights?
The Japanese have been seen to have great resourcefulness, (like the Mogami's originally being fitted with 6" guns but designing them for larger weight).
While they failed to provide their people with everything they needed, (like SMG's), I just don't see them sticking with a failed weapons system, (like a sub-launched plane that does not work.??
I must believe they had some merit.



Feinder -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 4:27:18 PM)

quote:

I just don't see them sticking with a failed weapons system, (like a sub-launched plane that does not work.??
I must believe they had some merit.


While I agree with you, try applying the exact same arguement regarding the success of 4e bombers vs. enemy shipping in this forum. Oh the wrath that shall befall thee!

[;)]

-F-



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 5:59:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Feinder

quote:

I just don't see them sticking with a failed weapons system, (like a sub-launched plane that does not work.??
I must believe they had some merit.


While I agree with you, try applying the exact same arguement regarding the success of 4e bombers vs. enemy shipping in this forum. Oh the wrath that shall befall thee!

[;)]

-F-


"A man should know his limitations."
-"Dirty" Harry Callahan



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 6:26:11 PM)

History of one man and his "Glenn" off Australia and the U.S.,etc....

http://www.historynet.com/ahi/bl-japan-bombs-us/

http://www.portorfordlifeboatstation.org/article1.html

http://home.st.net.au/~dunn/japsubs/i-25.htm



Feinder -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 6:38:46 PM)

quote:

Article - Although the B1 type submarines carried an aircraft for reconnaissance purposes, they were also formidable attack boats, armed with 17 torpedoes and a 5.5.-inch thick deck gun.


Gah. The article -would- be interesting, if the writing wasn't so horrible.

I have a subscription to "World War 2 History" (same publishing company), and am quite pleased with it. But editting is a good thing!

-F-



Feinder -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 6:46:10 PM)

quote:

2nd Article - Twenty years after the attack, Fujita was invited to several towns on the southern Oregon Coast near the area of his air attacks. The pilot presented the city of Brookings with a 350-year old samurai sword as a gesture of friendship. Fujita was also made an honorary citizen of Gold Beach. He died in 1997; some of his ashes were scattered on Mount Emily.


Much better article than the first. Altho, I find it amusing that the residents of Oregon are so forgiving about the whole thing. "Hey thanks for trying to kill us. Come back any time!"

-F-



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 6:48:47 PM)

I like "World War Two" magazine..
Think its' published in Virginia.
www.worldwarII.com



Feinder -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 6:49:24 PM)

"World War Two" - Yep. That's one I've got (by Primedia). There's another one, called "World War 2 History" (or something like that), that as I recall is a little better, but also about 3x the cost. I always get them mixed up.

I wonder what other stations that pilot and crewmember were trained for? I doubt they just rode around on the sub for 4 years, doing nothing except for the missions they flew. Any info on that?

-F-



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 6:59:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Feinder

"World War Two" - Yep. That's one I've got (by Primedia). There's another one, called "World War 2 History" (or something like that), that as I recall is a little better, but also about 3x the cost. I always get them mixed up.

I wonder what other stations that pilot and crewmember were trained for? I doubt they just rode around on the sub for 4 years, doing nothing except for the missions they flew. Any info on that?

-F-


From what I read, that was pretty much it..That and schmoosing his buddy the Prince........

As far as his "presenting the samurai sword", wonder if it was with a slash or a thrust??

Heck, if an illegal alien wants citizenship, all he has to do is firebomb Oregon..
(I'd prefer they start in Freako,er, I mean Frisco.)[:D]



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 7:01:26 PM)

But really....How 'bout those free handbags???[sm=00000280.gif][sm=Christo_pull_hair.gif][sm=Crazy-1271.gif]



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 7:13:46 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Feinder

"World War Two" - Yep. That's one I've got (by Primedia). There's another one, called "World War 2 History" (or something like that), that as I recall is a little better, but also about 3x the cost. I always get them mixed up.

I wonder what other stations that pilot and crewmember were trained for? I doubt they just rode around on the sub for 4 years, doing nothing except for the missions they flew. Any info on that?

-F-


Just this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobuo_Fujita

Just....sit around....play cribbage...eat oranges....bomb Oregon....Yup...Pretty much it......What a life....



Feinder -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 8:35:13 PM)

From Wiki -

quote:

Impressed by his welcome in the United States, Fujita invited three female students from Brookings to Japan in 1985.


You go dawg!

-F-



el cid again -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 9:37:24 PM)

quote:

I had a book once called I-BOAT SKIPPER..Have not read it in years, but IIRC those Glenn flights over Oregon were continuous for a short time. This would indicate the ability for repeat flights?


By one of the few good IJA sub officers - he got USS Indianapolis in 1945 with torpedoes -

and he has co-authored a scholarly account of the submarine war not long ago - The Japanese Submarine Force and World War II - USNI.

In his original book he says some things you rarely hear about - about the real purpose of the seaplane carriers - about multiple experimental boats - and other such esoteric matters. He had his own notes, and over time we have come closer and closer to understanding his totals - but once they were quite controversial.



el cid again -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 9:41:02 PM)

quote:

Altho, I find it amusing that the residents of Oregon are so forgiving about the whole thing. "Hey thanks for trying to kill us. Come back any time!"

-F-


Having lived in Oregon (Beaverton) and worked for its largest employer (Tektronix), I can see you do not quite grasp just how liberal Oregon society is. It is ILLEGAL to fuel your car there - you CANNOT have a self serve pump at a gas station you own - or even a SOFT DRINK CAN! They are now proposing to track cars with computers using mandatory devices in the cars in Portland for some reason. There is nothing very amazing in Oregon.



el cid again -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 9:46:29 PM)

quote:

I wonder what other stations that pilot and crewmember were trained for? I doubt they just rode around on the sub for 4 years, doing nothing except for the missions they flew. Any info on that?


IJN warrant officers were ex enlisted men but were treated like officers. Anyway, a submarine is an intimate place to live. [Any ship is - but a submarine even more than others.] Theory and practice get all mixed up on a submarine - and it used to be (pre nuclear) that every one on a sub had to know every station - every last valve - etc. But formally, the pilot and crewmember were responsible for air operations, and things related to it (e.g. weather - always dear to any sailor anyway). Fujida himself seems to have had time to think - and he proposed a real submarine bomber and subs to carry it. In this he was encouraged by his exec, who took the proposal to Yamamoto, who adopted it! This tale is told by Fujida himself in his own words in Silent Siege by Burt Webber (University of Oregon Press) - a book rather awful in organization and rational judgement - its author will believe anything - it nevertheless has fabulous original material in it - many photographs, images of documents, quotes, etc. YOU just need to use judgement - since it is a scrap book more than a scholarly work.



Feinder -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 10:38:28 PM)

quote:

and it used to be (pre nuclear) that every one on a sub had to know every station - every last valve - etc. But formally, the pilot and crewmember were responsible for air operations, and things related to it


Yeah I figured he was also the chief mechanic for the plane, and the mech skills would be useful in a general sense. I didn't know if he actually had a dual MOS (or whatever they call it) tho. I was thinking that a guy who knows the mechanics, but without a spefic job to and is just standing around, would get in the way...?

Come to think on it, if I were to cast him in a dual role, I'd bet his navigational skills would likely be more applicable than his mechanics. It is after all, about speed, time, and heading...

-F-



Feinder -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 10:49:38 PM)

quote:

Having lived in Oregon (Beaverton) and worked for its largest employer (Tektronix), I can see you do not quite grasp just how liberal Oregon society is. It is ILLEGAL to fuel your car there - you CANNOT have a self serve pump at a gas station you own - or even a SOFT DRINK CAN! They are now proposing to track cars with computers using mandatory devices in the cars in Portland for some reason. There is nothing very amazing in Oregon.


Actually, my wife lived in Sherwood, OR for about 15 years. I've heard the stories (and we visited there once). She blames it on the hippies from California that lost their jobs, moved north, and have otherwise polluted a pleasent place to live.

-F-



m10bob -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 11:12:02 PM)

Whenever I hear about problems with a local society, and their ills, I must feel they are accepted by the masses, based on their elected representatives.
Palosi comes to mind...................

Ref: I BOAT SKIPPER...I recall he indicated the real reason the Mutsu blew up was because it had been working on a secret weapon which would have been similar to an atomic cannon, a shell to be fired over an enemy fleet, which would destroy the entire fleet.
Since several nations were working on similar projects, (heavy water,etc.), its' not really such an unbelievable idea.
The U.S. was certainly using cannons as an atomic delivery vehicle soon thereafter, (by the fifties.)



mlees -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 11:58:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: m10bob

Whenever I hear about problems with a local society, and their ills, I must feel they are accepted by the masses, based on their elected representatives.
Palosi comes to mind...................

Ref: I BOAT SKIPPER...I recall he indicated the real reason the Mutsu blew up was because it had been working on a secret weapon which would have been similar to an atomic cannon, a shell to be fired over an enemy fleet, which would destroy the entire fleet.
Since several nations were working on similar projects, (heavy water,etc.), its' not really such an unbelievable idea.
The U.S. was certainly using cannons as an atomic delivery vehicle soon thereafter, (by the fifties.)


Umm, I wouldn't put much into that Mutsu claim. Battleships have been spontanteously exploding since the introduction of gunpowder to naval combat.

http://www.combinedfleet.com/Mutsu.html

OT: There was an explosion on the Iowa (in the 1980's?) during a gun shoot. The USN, maybe in an attempt to find a scapegoat, blamed a suicidal (and homosensual) sailor. I think the final verdict was touchy propellant and possible "overram". What an embarassment (the scapgoating, that is) that was. Notice the parrallel "beauracratic" responses to the cases...



Terminus -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/5/2006 11:59:21 PM)

"Homosensual"... Ga-harf...



Alikchi2 -> RE: Another Midway "what-if" (4/6/2006 12:19:12 AM)

I remember hearing about the explosion on Iowa.. was supposed to have been pretty nasty. But from what I've seen and read it sounds like a simple screw up on the part of the gun crew. Blaming a gay sailor - well, I'm not surprised [8|]



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