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niceguy2005 -> RE: Longest DEI have held out (5/3/2006 2:39:41 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
If the Japanese player is willing to give up operations elsewhere then all of the DEI ( excepting a couple of unimportant places in Sumatra) could be the Japanese player's by the end of December 1942. If it is desired to capture the DEI resources intact then it will prove essential to commit the battleline ( or at least a very large portion of it) to bombardment of the defenders ( thus robbing them of the engineers that tend to sabotage the oilfields, resources etc.)
If operating under the assumption that British and Dutch forces would not attack Japanese task forces at sea until their aggressive intent was confirmed ( which can only be conclusively done by allowing them to land) then the important areas in DEI ( areas rich in oil and resources AND those areas from which it is possible to easily bomb/interdict these resource/oil sources) can be taken by the end of December with the committment of 6 Independent Brigades, the battleline, 2 aviation regiments, 1 parachute regiment, 6 to 8 BFs ( depending on the amount of fighter cover you want for your convoys) plus 4 or 5 NLFs/SNLFs to take Timor etc quickly. No more than 4 Sentais of Oscar would be required to essentially neutralise Singapore/Batavian aerial strike capabilities.
Obviously in this instance the capture of the DEI would have to be part of a wider plan both supporting and being supported by the attacks in Malaysia and the isolation of Allied forces in the Philippines such that the committment of a small number of Zero and Betty Daitais within the DEI AOA but tasked with supporting these attacks would be extremely beneficial.
If Japanese forces are assumed to be able to come no closer than 300 miles from Allied bases (excepting in areas where they have land or carrier-based air cover) it should still be possible to take the entirety of the DEI by mid-January by utilising a few more Zero Daitais and a viral method of expansion ( e.g.) transports land at Mendano. Major forces are some 400 miles east of the Mendano landing. Once this occurs these forces can, within 3 to 4 days, make their way to Kendari, Amboina, Sorong etc, land, establish airbases and refueling/replenishment depots for the battleline. Utilising the battleline with LRCAP to absorb bomber attacks Batavia could be quickly reduced and 3 Regiments landed. This will ensure the securing of Java itself. Once that is done it will be a simple matter to close the vice by taking Southern Borneo and escorting troops to Palembang/Teloekboetang under cover of the battleline. It is, of course, assumed that Singapore will have been rendered largely impotent by army bomber strikes from the Malaysian peninsula.
I know that may seem fast but I think the potential is there. I missed the timescale of the first option outlines above by a fortnight because of some newbie mistakes in my invasion planning but definitely it could have been wrapped up in 3 weeks instead of 5 and I think that a more temporally spaced phasing than occured in my game could actually accelerate the capture of DEI so that even without benefit of any first turn warps etc all important areas would fall before mid-January.
So, 2.5 weeks with the benefit of nil Allied reaction until landings are confirmed and no more than 5 weeks ( probably as little as 4) if what seems to be the common house rule of requiring Japanese TFs to be more than 300 miles from Allied bases on December 7th is required.
The rate of loss during this time will be very high but overall losses will be significantly lower than for a long drawn-out campaign. Certainly a long drawn-out campaign will attrit the Allied player to a great extent also but Allied productive capacity makes the attrition of any of their resources save carriers, battleships, submarines, whole combat units ( with no fragments for rebuilding) and four-engined bombers, irrelevant and thus the longer campaign has nothing to recommend it except a smaller RATE of casualties... which is an entirely illusory "benefit" to the Japanese player.
Very good analysis. If I understand you right, this requires going around Malaya. I'm not sure I would do that. No point in letting those forces escape.
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