Unrealistic replays! (Full Version)

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jacmar -> Unrealistic replays! (6/1/2006 5:05:06 PM)

I played out a few seasons in computer mode, to see if the standings would be similar to the real life standings. The real life standings for 1955 had the Dodgers and Yankees finishing first. In the season replay, the Dodgers were edged out by Milwaukee, and the Yankees finished 23 games off the pace. In the 1919 real life standings, the Whitesox and Redlegs finished first. In the season replay for 1919, both teams finished way out and never were in contention at any time. Is there something that I should be doing to get these season replays to be more accurate?



domonas -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/2/2006 5:03:15 PM)

I don't think this game IS a replay game.  That's more Diamond Mind's territory.



jacmar -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/2/2006 5:18:31 PM)

Thanks Domonas...I believe youre right...I guess I will order version 9 from DMB, and wonder what I am going to do with my Puresim7 CD that just arrived.



domonas -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/2/2006 5:46:42 PM)

Sell it.  Save it for a rainy day.



jacmar -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/2/2006 6:38:30 PM)

I guess I'll save it, and hope that someday they will make Puresim into a realistic simulation.



Nothingman -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/2/2006 6:50:48 PM)

I think Puresim is actually a fairly realistic simulation.  Teams play 162 games in baseball and there are so many variables that can completely change the outcome of a season.  Every season would probably end up quite different if replayed in real life as well.  You have injuries, fatigue, luck, state of mind, good players having bad years, bad players having good years, etc.  You can't expect to get the exact same results or really even similar results just because you have the same players.



domonas -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/2/2006 6:54:20 PM)

But the point is that PS is not a replay game. Great simulation and a game worth having, but not replay.



jacmar -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/2/2006 9:16:32 PM)

I agree it is a nice game, and a good simulation, but not realistic. I played out some complete seasons, one being 1955 and 2 for 1919. In the 1919 seasons, which were actually won by the Redlegs and Whitesox, neither team was anywhere near the top. One of the replays actually had both teams finishing last. Im sorry, but that just isnt realistic. Its a fun game, and I would reccommend it for anyone who likes baseball. In a fictional way, its great. I just feel that if one played out a given season 100 times, maybe a couple of times the teams that actually won would finish first.



dewelar2 -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/2/2006 10:55:44 PM)

I agree with domonas. PureSim is geared more toward a general manager's perspective of controlling a team, or to a commissioner's perspective of running a league or leagues. If you want realistic simulation, you're much better off with Diamond Mind. There's a place for both, to be sure, but as it appears to be with you I would someday like to see a game that can combine both into one product. No offense to the hard-working folks at Matrix, but this ain't it [:(].



motnahp -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 10:00:00 AM)

Are you leaving the injuries and AI trading on during your seasons? Taking these variables away from the AI will give a more realistic outcome, IMO.

I started an AL-only assn with the 1969 season. I was able to get all of the transactions from baseball-reference.com, and I acutally take the time to update the teams with their proper rosters as the season progresses. It takes some work and time, but I'm enjoying it.

One thing that would help the replay realism would be for the program to include some sort of "maximums" or "percentages" of at-bats/innings pitched for a player during a season. I mentioned this in a recent "suggestions" thread. If others could drop that same bug in Shaun's ear, it would have a better chance of being added (hint, hint, wink, wink).

Don't give up on PS just yet. Shaun continues to make a ton of changes and improvements geared toward us folks who prefer using real players. He has made MAJOR strides in the last year and I detect that more improvements are on the way.



JudgeDredd -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 10:25:39 AM)

Why in Gods name would you want to buy something and have the game automate play just to recreate history? I do not understand why you would want to do that.

It's like buying a WWII strategy game knowing that the game sticks with history...meaning playing as the Germans you will never win and playing as the allies you will always win! What is the point exactly? If you already know the history, why use a game to recreate it? Why not use the game for what it should be used for...allowing you, as a decision maker, to make the decisions necessary to take your side to victory...be it a WWII game or a baseball game or any other strategy genre.

Sorry for the post not being helpful, but I do not understand, at all, this train of thought. If you think you can enlighten me, then feel free.



motnahp -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 12:14:41 PM)

I'm not sure exactly what jacmar is looking for. For myself, I want to get all of the players on their correct teams, make the trades when they occurred in real life, then let the program's AI set the major league rosters and play out the games.

Keeping up with these trades/signings/releases is a little of an administrative burden, but does provide some enjoyment and a lot of insight on how the team owners & GMs built and changed their teams as time went by.

With just a couple more additions (see my earlier post in this thread), PS will allow "reality" users to fully enjoy the statistical replay of the program.



JudgeDredd -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 2:12:58 PM)

I'm sorry...but I do not get what the replay is about...that's my point. I don't understand why you would spend money on a "game", to make it aut run through the seasons so you can recreate what happened. What value do you get from the game?

I thought the whole point of a game was to try an make the difference. By that I mean your input helps determine the outcome...otherwise, where is the point?

Also, it goes with any game. I mean, would anyone in their right minds buy the magnificent game that is GTR, if they knew that, no matter what they did to the car they had, it would be placed historically, session to session, race to race, season to season? If any game was to act historically, no matter what the input from the player, then I've lost the fun side...I don't, at that point, see the point in playing it.

I would never buy a game that completely ignored my input.



domonas -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 5:15:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JudgeDredd

I'm sorry...but I do not get what the replay is about...that's my point. I don't understand why you would spend money on a "game", to make it aut run through the seasons so you can recreate what happened. What value do you get from the game?

I thought the whole point of a game was to try an make the difference. By that I mean your input helps determine the outcome...otherwise, where is the point?


Not to sound argumentative, but not everyone gets this game for the same reasons. Just b/c you don't like the replay aspect of baseball sims, doesn't invalidate another person's desire for such a game.



jacmar -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 6:28:59 PM)

The point I am making is this....Its true, that if a replay is accurate, you know who is going to win if the season plays out accurately. The two ideas that I like to do are as follows...Take a real team from any season and manage the team against the rest of the league. Then see how I do compared with the real team. If the game isnt accurate, how do you know how you really did?
The other option I like is to take a number of great teams from different eras and play it out to see which team would win. Judge, there is no way one can know that from history, because those teams never really faced reach other. If you dont have an accurate foundation, there is no way to know if you are getting an accurate outcome.
I am not criticizing Puresim in any way. Ive said numerous times that it is a nice game, and fun to play. But if you are given all of the teams from every season, and given all of the stats that go with it, I would expect to see some realisitic results if seasons were to be played out. I played out a few seasons, and didnt see anything close to being accurate. Its as if all the teams and players are equal. Thats fine if you want to see how you would do against another player or against the computer on equal terms. But if you are following the 1927 Yankees in a league with the 1986 Mets, and notice at the end of the season that Rafael Santana has a higher average than Babe Ruth, something isnt right.



Beach23BoyP -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 6:55:07 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jacmar

The point I am making is this....Its true, that if a replay is accurate, you know who is going to win if the season plays out accurately. The two ideas that I like to do are as follows...Take a real team from any season and manage the team against the rest of the league. Then see how I do compared with the real team. If the game isnt accurate, how do you know how you really did?
The other option I like is to take a number of great teams from different eras and play it out to see which team would win. Judge, there is no way one can know that from history, because those teams never really faced reach other. If you dont have an accurate foundation, there is no way to know if you are getting an accurate outcome.
I am not criticizing Puresim in any way. Ive said numerous times that it is a nice game, and fun to play. But if you are given all of the teams from every season, and given all of the stats that go with it, I would expect to see some realisitic results if seasons were to be played out. I played out a few seasons, and didnt see anything close to being accurate. Its as if all the teams and players are equal. Thats fine if you want to see how you would do against another player or against the computer on equal terms. But if you are following the 1927 Yankees in a league with the 1986 Mets, and notice at the end of the season that Rafael Santana has a higher average than Babe Ruth, something isnt right.


Again, as I've said time and time again over the last five years or so. OOTP and PureSim are "NOT" about re-living history -- they are Career/GM baseball text sims. If you want to re-living history or have historical matchups, you need to play:

1) Diamond Mind
2) Strat-O-Matic
3) Action PC Replay Baseball
4) Baseball for Windows (with the Bill James ency) (You might find it on ebay.)
5) APBA Baseball (You could go back to rolling dice)

There are too many "variables" in OOTP and PS. They are not really designed for exact replays. They become a world unto their own.  Yes, you can use Lahman with both -- but they are NOT replay sims by any stretch.

And BTW, OOTP and PS just import players from Lahman as IDs.  Niether progam has any idea who Ruth is, Mantle is or Barry Bonds.  And it knows is a mass of number with a potential.

I had Mantle hit over 600 HR in a 16 year OOTP career (that is till going on) while Mays was almost a complete bust.  And BTW, in one of my PS real player/fantasy teams league -- Gus Triandos lasted on 10 games in the bigs before he went out with a career ending injury.  Also, Drysdale and Koufax were never really big winnners, but Jackie Collum was a world beater!  Who was Jackie Collum?



jacmar -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 7:07:36 PM)

Beach23BoyP...Yes, I agree with you...I was just explaining to the others as to what I wanted to do.



Beach23BoyP -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 7:15:00 PM)

OK. Maybe people will read that over the next few months and they'll understand. I have a very close friend of mine who thinks playing PS or OOTP is crazy. Just because he wants to totally re-live history. He plays SOM and he sets each days line-ups as it was in real life and then plays out the game. He loves it. He feels like he's back in time.

He'll never understand "the thrill and mystery" of a GM/Career BB text sim so I gave up trying to interest him in either PS or OOTP.



jacmar -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 7:40:04 PM)

To each his own I guess. I prefer the realistic replays as well. But theres nothing wrong with Puresim and OOTP if you want to be a GM.



dewelar2 -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 7:59:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jacmar

The point I am making is this....Its true, that if a replay is accurate, you know who is going to win if the season plays out accurately. The two ideas that I like to do are as follows...Take a real team from any season and manage the team against the rest of the league. Then see how I do compared with the real team. If the game isnt accurate, how do you know how you really did?
The other option I like is to take a number of great teams from different eras and play it out to see which team would win. Judge, there is no way one can know that from history, because those teams never really faced reach other. If you dont have an accurate foundation, there is no way to know if you are getting an accurate outcome.


Exactly. There's a lot you can do with accurate replays. Most common is the "what if" scenario:

What would the Pirates have done the past 10 years if they'd been able to keep Barry Bonds? Would they have finally won a World Series?

What if the Red Sox had sold Babe Ruth to the Senators instead of the Yankees? Would the Yankees still have been a dynasty in the '20s?

What if the Dodgers had stayed in Ebbets Field -- would Koufax and Drysdale still have dominated in a more hitter-friendly park?

I have seen sites with estimated stats of Negro Leaguers -- you can plug them into the game and see (as best you can) how Satchel Paige or Josh Gibson, or the new batch of NeL Hall of Famers, would have done in the majors.

You can also test your managerial skill -- something like "If I'd been managing the Cubs instead of that bum Dusty Baker last year, they'd have made the playoffs!" Jacmar alluded to this above.

If you want to play GM, then by all means do so. However, if you're going to do it using real players AT ALL, there's a lot to be said for knowing that the game represents their talent accurately, and the only way to know that it does is by replaying the season and seeing if things look like they should -- not exactly like real-life, of course, but within a certain reasonable tolerance level. I haven't dug that deeply into the game yet, but if what Jacmar says is true, for future associations I will be running entirely computer-generated players, which for me takes some of the fun out of it.

Please note that I'm not trying to tell anyone else how they should play the game. However, as I said above, I would pay a good chunk of change (a lot more than $30) for a game that combined the GM aspects of this one with the realism of Diamond Mind. I also realize that there aren't a lot of people who share that feeling, or else someone would have done it by now [:)].



jacmar -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 8:09:25 PM)

I couldnt have said it better myself....



JudgeDredd -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/3/2006 11:15:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jacmar

The point I am making is this....Its true, that if a replay is accurate, you know who is going to win if the season plays out accurately. The two ideas that I like to do are as follows...Take a real team from any season and manage the team against the rest of the league. Then see how I do compared with the real team. If the game isnt accurate, how do you know how you really did?
The other option I like is to take a number of great teams from different eras and play it out to see which team would win. Judge, there is no way one can know that from history, because those teams never really faced reach other. If you dont have an accurate foundation, there is no way to know if you are getting an accurate outcome.
I am not criticizing Puresim in any way. Ive said numerous times that it is a nice game, and fun to play. But if you are given all of the teams from every season, and given all of the stats that go with it, I would expect to see some realisitic results if seasons were to be played out. I played out a few seasons, and didnt see anything close to being accurate. Its as if all the teams and players are equal. Thats fine if you want to see how you would do against another player or against the computer on equal terms. But if you are following the 1927 Yankees in a league with the 1986 Mets, and notice at the end of the season that Rafael Santana has a higher average than Babe Ruth, something isnt right.


Well...I asked you to enlighten me, and you did. You've just successfully explained why someone would want to realistically replay...so I stand corrected. [&o]



jacmar -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/4/2006 12:46:53 AM)

OK Judge...I think as you get more and more familiar with the game of baseball, you will see why some of us would like to see what would happen if Team A played Team B. Most of us grew up following baseball and argued all our lives about who was a better player, and what our team would have done if they played in a different era. With accurate replays, we can get an idea about these hypothetical questions.



AngryTree -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/4/2006 2:23:10 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jacmar

I agree it is a nice game, and a good simulation, but not realistic. I played out some complete seasons, one being 1955 and 2 for 1919. In the 1919 seasons, which were actually won by the Redlegs and Whitesox, neither team was anywhere near the top. One of the replays actually had both teams finishing last. Im sorry, but that just isnt realistic. Its a fun game, and I would reccommend it for anyone who likes baseball. In a fictional way, its great. I just feel that if one played out a given season 100 times, maybe a couple of times the teams that actually won would finish first.


Well, there's really only one way to find out. So, last night I set up a continuous replay of the 1955 season, and let it run unattended until the end of the 2054 season, giving us 100 years of data.

I've uploaded the seasons page here: http://www.angrytree.com/puresim/seasons.html (I might upload the rest of the almanac at some point, but it weighs in at around 300MB).

Here's a quick summary of what I found:
The Yankees (96-58, AL Pennant winners in '55) won 43 pennants.
Cleveland (93-61, 1 game back in '55) won 29 pennants.
Boston (84-70, 12 games back in '55) won 20 pennants.
The White Sox (91-63, 5 games back in '55) won 7 pennants.
Detroit (79-75, 17 games back in '55) won 1 pennant.
Kansas City, Baltimore, and Washington did not win any pennants.

In the NL:
Brooklyn (98-55, NL Pennant winners in '55) won 48 pennants.
St. Louis (68-86, 30.5 games back in '55) won 31 pennants.
Milwaukee (85-69, 13.5 games back in '55) won 12 pennants.
The Giants (80-74, 18.5 games back in '55) won 7 pennants.
The Cubs (72-81, 26.0 games back in '55) won 2 pennants.
Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh did not win any pennants.

In real life, the Dodgers beat the Yankees in 7 in the World Series. In the one hundred seasons played in the replay, the Dodgers and Yankees met in the series 19 times, with the Yankees coming out on top 11 to 8.



timtellean1 -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/4/2006 5:34:43 AM)

So I take it with replays you look for this http://www.whatifsports.com/locker/default.asp



Amaroq -> RE: Unrealistic replays! (6/7/2006 4:04:11 AM)

Several thoughts:

1.) There is the 'half-season' problem; if Joe plays 70 games for St. Louis and 90 games for Cincinnati... in PureSim he'll be loaded on Cincinnati for all 154 or 162 games, which will cause Cincinnati to do better (having him available more of the season) and St. Louis to do worse (having him unavailable).

2.) There is the 'didn't play all year' problem. If Tom is brought up to the bigs in June, but plays at a great clip thereafter, in PureSim he'll be placed on the big-league roster all season long. (Likewise, you might get a key player missing parts of the PureSim season... or a real-life manager which might have decided to play inexperienced players in September, costing himself ten games which his PureSim counterpart doesn't.)

3.) Lineup construction can cause similar differences, places where the 'right' lineup choices IRL versus the 'wrong' lineup choices in PureSim will cause the PS team to perform worse than its RL counterpart... and vice versa.

4.) Even with the 'closer' checkbox, there are still 'pitcher usage' problems, which I expect you're running into much more in that 1919 replay than in the 1955 one. If the real-life teams-of-that-era rarely went to the bullpen, but the PureSim ones go more often, the bullpen strength will contribute to performance.

5.) There are random numbers involved, both in the real world and in PureSim. A real-world team could have performed better than you'd have expected based on its runs scored and runs allowed, or vice versa.

...

I don't think you can draw any conclusions from a single season, you need to run the sort of thing AngryTree did to start drawing any real conclusions. He found that 45.5% of his pennants were won by the "correct" team, which means that only in 20.7% (.455 * .455) of his seasons, *one in five*, would he see the "correct" World Series pairing.

I think the next step would be looking at why St. Louis appears to have had trouble in this year.



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