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Amaroq -> RE: How accurate are scouts? (7/21/2006 11:27:43 PM)
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JimboJ, I can say from direct conversation with Shaun that there are hidden ratings.
He plays his cards pretty close to the vest, and so didn't tell me exactly how they play into the pitcher-batter equation, but they do exist.
One obvious and observable one is 'vs lefty' and 'vs righty'. You can definitely find players who have almost no difference in batting average either way, and you can find players who have a .100 point difference. If you observe those players over five to ten seasons, you'll find some for whom that was a statistical oddity in one season, but you'll find many who consistently put up similar numbers, season after season. That rating is not made visible to the user in any way, but is discernable via observing the stats.
For a quick example of this, take your association and look at the top 20 batting averages, the top 20 home run hitters, and the top 20 on-base-percentage players. While they will have *good* contact, power, and eye, respectively, I don't think you'll find a direct correlation - the batting average leader may have a 73 contact, not the 99 you might have expected.
When I first started playing PS, I was very heavily in the 'always trust the ratings' camp, and the more I've played and learned about the game, I've come to rely on the ratings as well as the stats. Of course, you have to *draft* on ratings, but for other decisions I try to consider all the data.
In Jimbo's example, I, too, would use the 8 contact hitter - because the few at bats indicate that the data is statistically insignificant.
However, if I were looking at last year's batting averages, and they'd each had 500 at bats, I would go with the '5' who had a .300 average, concluding that there is something 'wrong' with the .200 hitter.
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