RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (Full Version)

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mdiehl -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/8/2006 10:29:23 PM)

The Japanese war economy was as rampped up as it could ever be, with almost half (IIRC) of Japanese GDP in war industry by 1940. Securing the SRA fast, slow, or not at all would have had no effect on their production capacity in the 5 years of WW2. Other than perhaps to have a critical lack of fuel shut everything down.

The argument that somehow the Allies should be forced or encouraged to pursue a flawed strategy defending the SRA in dispersed, isolated locations or else face a SuperJapan is illogical. It posits a false dichotomy: force the Allies to follow the "historical strategy" or else face a Japan with a capability that it could never have had even with 10 years to develop the resources and NO damage to refineries or other capacity. There was no capability for substantial growth in the Japanese economy in 1941-1945 without first ENDING the war in China and withdrawing.



BlackVoid -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/8/2006 10:36:48 PM)

The Allies did not have a totally unified command either. Think McArthur... European theater..., different opinions of US/GB/AUS/NZ, etc...

There were political problems and considerations on the Allied side as well.





6971grunt -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/8/2006 11:14:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: skrewball

About the Japanese pilot training...

This game is about "WHAT WOULD YOU DO" if you were in command. I can tell you that if I was in command of the Japanese, I would have implemented a strict training regime. Of course this isn't modelled propery in game, so you use the base attacks. Why would you want to hold on to the "historic" method of play? Historically, the Japanese got their asses handed to them without much material loss to the Allies (towards the end of the war). What fun is that?

I believe the allies should have some sort of production control. However, there should be some random negative modifier depending on the war in Europe.


I agree with skrewball here, what fun and enjoyment would there be if we were confined to strict historical parameters?[&:] The Japanese were destined to lose because of the strategic choices they made during the war, as history teaches. Why play a game with a known outcome?

I'll take a flight of Marine Corsairs over 12 Zero's any day - alot of buring Japs at the end of the day.



AmiralLaurent -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/8/2006 11:42:10 PM)

I think the simple way to simulate the war economy is to ask for political points for any increase in size of a factory, or unlogical upgrade. I would say a political point for each factory center. Any factory upgrade to an AC being the successor of the current production will be judged logical and so be free (in PP, not in HI and supplies). All other changes will cost 1 PP per center.

Why political points ?

From a simulation POV, a new industry will need manpower, energy, space, transportation, fuel and spare parts that may have been used by someone else, so it needs some king of "decision power" for the order to be made. That is for the increase of size of any factory (or shipyard).
Unlogical upgrades (converting a B-26 unit to B-24, or Jake to Zero) will also require some political pressure, as you basically ask a firm to stop building its scrap AC to build the concurrent's.

From a game POV, that will both reduce the flux of Japanese troops liberated from fixed command and/or the industry increase, but will still enable the Japanese player to increase factory capacity by 50 per days if he wants.
The same option should be open to the Allied player IMOO but to simulate the 'Hitler First' principle such changes will need twice the price asked (2 PP for each factory center), at least until May 1945. By the way AFAIK most Allied players have no PP to spare before 1943.

On the other hand, Allied side will have no more extra production, but all production will be on map.... This will need to include 'closed areas' to set some Soviet and British factories out of range of Japan (like external AF are considered in TOAW if you see what I mean), and so that some old models will no more be produced (most Chinese and Dutch AC among them).

Comments welcome.



mdiehl -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/8/2006 11:43:27 PM)

I think it would be better with a random positive modifier for the war in Europe if one believes that the Allies could have done substantially better in Europe than they did (esp with the Battle of the Atlantic).



Sardonic -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/8/2006 11:51:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

The Japanese war economy was as rampped up as it could ever be, with almost half (IIRC) of Japanese GDP in war industry by 1940. Securing the SRA fast, slow, or not at all would have had no effect on their production capacity in the 5 years of WW2. Other than perhaps to have a critical lack of fuel shut everything down.

The argument that somehow the Allies should be forced or encouraged to pursue a flawed strategy defending the SRA in dispersed, isolated locations or else face a SuperJapan is illogical. It posits a false dichotomy: force the Allies to follow the "historical strategy" or else face a Japan with a capability that it could never have had even with 10 years to develop the resources and NO damage to refineries or other capacity. There was no capability for substantial growth in the Japanese economy in 1941-1945 without first ENDING the war in China and withdrawing.


I surely dont agree with this assessment.
A modern economy is dynamic, not static.
Capable of change.

Things can be reallocated if needed.

It would seem to me that the problem is that the Allied player has no control of his production.
NOT, that Japan does.

Also I have asked several times and gotten no answer. Where does Japan get all this supply
to change his industry? It isnt there. Even a modest usage is a severe drain.




dtravel -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/8/2006 11:56:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: AmiralLaurent
but will still enable the Japanese player to increase factory capacity by 50 per days if he wants.


This is the whole crux of the arguments. In the real world, there was simply no physical possibility of Japan doing this or any significant increase of their production capability.

I remember reading some time back that the design intent behind allowing the Japanese players as much control over production as they have was so that they could try to adjust to the damage done by Allied bombing, not so they could ramp it up to ridiculous levels.



dtravel -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/8/2006 11:58:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardonic
I surely dont agree with this assessment.
A modern economy is dynamic, not static.
Capable of change.


Japan didn't have a modern economy, even by 1940's standards. They had some schools and factories tacked on to a medieval society.



Sardonic -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 12:04:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: dtravel


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardonic
I surely dont agree with this assessment.
A modern economy is dynamic, not static.
Capable of change.


Japan didn't have a modern economy, even by 1940's standards. They had some schools and factories tacked on to a medieval society.


And that sounds like something that you WANT to believe.
Sixty years after the facts. Japan did some amazing things in 1945, while they tried to compensate for the bombing damage. I wonder if the USA could have done as well.

Compared to industry NOW, the USSR didnt have a modern economy either. But they still won.



mdiehl -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 1:07:32 AM)

quote:

surely dont agree with this assessment.
A modern economy is dynamic, not static.
Capable of change.

Things can be reallocated if needed.


That is true. I am pessimistic about the Japanese ability to radically change their economy in the time frame of WW2 (1940-1946 for argument's sake), however, for a number of reasons:

1. Increasing output from war factories that make complex devices like aircraft parts and engines (not to speak of, say, marine engines, marine drydocks and repair yards, artillery, tanks and vehicles, etc) requires increasing output in a whole bunch of other kinds of production and in infrastructure.

2. Working backward you need for more aircraft engines (for example), more foundries, more good metallurgists, and more machine tools. Having an infinite supply of raw material does not change your production unless you have the capacity to turn the raw materials into goods. Japan did not have that capacity domestically. She was trying (badly) to develop that capacity in North Korea (in part because so MANY young men in Japan were being recruited into the war in China and in part because the remaineder were needed to keep food production going).

3. That in turn means you need more factories that can make the machine tools that make the engine parts etc. So you need more men for the machine tool factories too. And your extant machine tools might be diverted from making engines (or whatever) to making more machine tools so you can make more factories that might make engines (so in the long run increasing a.c. produciton might well require a substantial interval of reduced a.c. production).

4. These also require more roads and more rails (and more locomotives and machine tools to make the locomotives and rails) to transport the machine tools, engine machines, engines &c.

In 1940 the Japanese economy was maxxed out in war production owing to shortage of capacity and shortage of men and materials to develop new capacity. They could have obtained the men if (a) their occupation policies weren't so barbaric and thoroughly dishonorable or if (b) they had withdrawn from China and put the IJA troops back into the civilian economy as machinists, founderers, fishermen and farmers.

And it still would have taken them 10-20 years just to catch up to US idled capacity before the war even began, assuming that they could have had free and easy access to the Southern Resource Area with all facilities intact and assuming they could have withdrawn from China or radically altered occupation policies.

In short, they could have had everything they wanted (except for honor earned at the point of a gun and humiliation heaped on the US and UK) had they actually done that which FDR most wanted them to do (give up China and engage in normal civil economic activity in the Pacific Rim). But that of course would in turn have required that Japan not be an expansionist military state.

Anyhow that is how I see it.



mdiehl -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 1:16:52 AM)

quote:

Sixty years after the facts. Japan did some amazing things in 1945, while they tried to compensate for the bombing damage.


I'll bite. Name one "amazing" industrial feat that Japan achieved during the war that the US did not exceed during the war.

quote:

Compared to industry NOW, the USSR didnt have a modern economy either. But they still won.


That is true and when you consider some of the reasons WHY then you can see why I at least think Japan could not. For one thing, the USSR benefitted substantially from US domestic production. I'm not talking about .50cal, tanks, fighter planes, and Studebaker trucks (all of which helped the USSR weather the worst of the German onslaught and develop in 1944 and 1945 a mobile force capability that was far superior to German mobility). I'm talking about machine tools (the famous Red Barricades Factory, for example, was largely built in 1941 from parts imported to Russia made by Martin Electro-Furnace Company).

From Wikipedia, US Lend-Lease (not including UK Lend Lease) through April 1945:

Aircraft.............................14,795
Tanks.................................7,056
Jeeps................................51,503
Trucks..............................375,883
Motorcycles..........................35,170
Tractors..............................8,071
Guns..................................8,218
Machine guns........................131,633
Explosives..........................345,735 tons
Building equipment valued.......$10,910,000
Railroad freight cars................11,155
Locomotives...........................1,981
Cargo ships..............................90
Submarine hunters.......................105
Torpedo boats...........................197
Ship engines..........................7,784
Food supplies.....................4,478,000 tons
Machines and equipment.......$1,078,965,000
Non-ferrous metals..................802,000 tons
Petroleum products................2,670,000 tons
Chemicals...........................842,000 tons
Cotton..........................106,893,000 tons
Leather..............................49,860 tons
Tires.............................3,786,000
Army boots.......................15,417,000 pairs



pauk -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 1:56:18 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

um not true 2 are still on west coast in dry dock after 12 months admittedly just about out of it but still


You missed to point that i didn't sink any of your BBs at PH (this is usual result of PH strike) and that these two BBs are only ones which were heavily damaged....



pauk -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:00:32 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: spence

quote:

ok... in my game against Andy (you may find it in AAR section) all American battleships from PH are ready for service at the start of the 43... and he is using them.

1. PH attack 95% is too inefficient
2. Ship repairs are too fast for both sides.....


quote:

um not true 2 are still on west coast in dry dock after 12 months admittedly just about out of it but still


Historically about right...3: maryland, Pennsylvania and Tennessee back in action by Jue 42, 1: Nevada by early 43, and 2: West Virginia and California by early-mid 44.
(Plus 1 sunk: Arizona and one deemed not worth repair: Oklahoma)


so , that makes it two sunk (de fact) BBs at PH.....

And the Andy have only two BBs in repair yards - those two which should be sunk. I would say that your maths sucks or you are demagogue... sorry but that's the way it is....




Honda -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:06:06 AM)

Tough luck. I can get 6 [:D]



pauk -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:06:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: spence

quote:

#1. Japan is allowed to do limited changes in their war industry to simulate that Japan could turn their production to the total war production


The Japanese military runs the country for 10 years or so, starts a war which they don't win (against China), decide the only way to win that one is start another one with the rest of the world, and then and only then decide to ramp up the economy to full war production?  Huh?

Seems to me they started the war with the West just to keep what was already going going.  Little enough production was available for conversion to a war footing in 1941...significant expansion was beyond their capability though they could tweak things a bit.


there we go again. Ok, they were stupid... and they are stupid even today[:'(]

Japan industry capabilities were set on 0 in the 1946 but they managed to expand their industry and become real industrial superpower.... how they managed to expand their industry beyond their capabilities?




pauk -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:09:46 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BlackVoid

With PDU on the japanese are stronger than historical.


not a 100 % true. Japan IS stronger than historical in 1942 thanks to ability to upgrade useless Nates to Tojos and Tonies, but once when Allies start to reciving P-47s, P-38J and Corsairs then Allies becomes stronger than historical.

But PDU is a candyland and have nothing with history....



pauk -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:13:05 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

I think it would be better with a random positive modifier for the war in Europe if one believes that the Allies could have done substantially better in Europe than they did (esp with the Battle of the Atlantic).



they couldn't do better than it was in RL - thanks to poor decisions of WWI soldier who believed that he is a greatest strategiest in the world of all times......



pauk -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:15:35 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardonic

Also I have asked several times and gotten no answer. Where does Japan get all this supply
to change his industry? It isnt there. Even a modest usage is a severe drain.


Japan have HI. HI produces supply. Also you can bring supply from SRA to Japan to expand industry. You have to be patient and lucky to capture oil and resources intact. Brave Sir Robin helps to that. Over.[;)]



pauk -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:17:25 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: dtravel


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardonic
I surely dont agree with this assessment.
A modern economy is dynamic, not static.
Capable of change.


Japan didn't have a modern economy, even by 1940's standards. They had some schools and factories tacked on to a medieval society.

But imagine that they hire MacArthur in 1940 and offer him a Japan citizenships and lots of geyshas (sp?)[;)][:D]



pauk -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:18:50 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Honda

Tough luck. I can get 6 [:D]


yeah, tough luck in 10 PBEM starts. You didn't mentioned that most of them (if not all went down after the 2nd day strike).....[:D]



spence -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 2:49:15 AM)

quote:

not a 100 % true. Japan IS stronger than historical in 1942 thanks to ability to upgrade useless Nates to Tojos and Tonies, but once when Allies start to reciving P-47s, P-38J and Corsairs then Allies becomes stronger than historical.


How is it that having the historical numbers of the historical planes makes the Allies stronger than IRL?  Pitting those historical numbers of historical planes against ahistorical numbers of greatly superior planes undermines your proposition IMHO.




spence -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 3:15:54 AM)

I like this game. But I find that in reality the system simply pits the USN against the "USN" in disguise.

The IJN was not the USN however.

1) It never had any form of meaningful fighter direction with regards to naval CAP

2) It was 2 years into the war before the "concept" of ship's supporting one another with their combined flak was even seriously studied.

The KB was a superb raiding force but never possessed the ability to sail into the teeth of LBA. The USN did just that repeatedly from mid 1944 on. KB could attack but lacked the defensive ability to duke it out with a strong enemy LBA. The KB also lacked the fleet train necessary to do so. As an example Japanese oilers refuelled ships at sea by trailing a hose over the stern. That limits the number of hoses for refuelling to one and the number of ships to be refuelled at any one time to one...much more time consuming than alongside refuelling which was the manner the more modern (at start) US oilers did it (The older slower ones did use the trailing hose method).

3) The IJN never conducted an assault landing against a prepared fortified and numerous opponent. For the most part they landed where the spread out defenders were not. Khota Bharu has been mentioned as an example of an IJN assault landing. As I understand it there were 2 battalions of defenders who were responsible for a total of 35 miles of beach. The Japanese only had difficulty and suffered significant casualties there because the sea state was rough. Yet the IJN gets a landing bonus (?) which helps them to routinely land against any opposition excepting (perhaps) locations guarded by heavy CD units.

4) I mentioned before that Japanese CD guns never inflicted any significant losses on an invasion fleet...Japanese troops inflicted significant losses on numerous landing forces but there are as I mentioned 2 separate phases to deal with the damage done by the two different defending groups mentioned.








dtravel -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 3:30:32 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: pauk
Japan industry capabilities were set on 0 in the 1946 but they managed to expand their industry and become real industrial superpower.... how they managed to expand their industry beyond their capabilities?


In 1946 the US was rebuilding their industry, infrastructure from scratch from US resources as well as forcing some changes to their society to bring it closer to modern (at the time) standards. Germany (and France and the UK too) got the same treatment. In Europe it was called the Marshall Plan. In Japan it was called MacArthur's Ego. [:D]

It has been noted that in the long term, the best thing countries can do for their industry and economy is declare war on the US. And lose. [:D] The US has this strange habit of rebuilding what we destroy in wars better than it was before. [;)]

(Strangely, some counties in Wisconsin I think it was about a decade ago in the course of about an hour suceeded from the US, declared war on it, and then surrendered, hoping to benefit from that tendency.)



treespider -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 3:33:02 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: dtravel


[(Strangely, some counties in Wisconsin I think it was about a decade ago in the course of about an hour suceeded from the US, declared war on it, and then surrendered, hoping to benefit from that tendency.)



Actually it was Key West....long live the Conch nation



Kadrin -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 3:53:18 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mogami

The Allied player is allowed to set groups on training. There is nothing gamey about this. No one ever said the Allied player could not train pilots on map. Any Allied player who is using 30 experiance pilots in 1944/45 is a knucklehead.



The only problem I see with this, Mogami, is that by the time Allied pilots get up to the mid 50's low 60's using training, their already pushing the 100 mission rotation rule, or are close to. I have yet to see pilots experience rise fast enough to actually benefit from the training mission (aside from Japanese pilots who do not have the rotation rule).



Bombur -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 3:57:20 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BlackVoid

With PDU on the japanese are stronger than historical. As Allied, do you want a challenging game, a walkover or a reproduction of history? Decide, and find an opponent who is willing to agree with you on mod/settings/rules, etc.. Or play as you want against the AI. There are also tons of mods. If you want more historical japanese capabilities, just play the stock game with PDU off. Lots and lots of choices.

BTW, you will not see historical results, no matter what.

I don't understand what is the big deal. [&:]



-I would disagree, even with PDU, Japan is not more powerful than in RL, quite the opposite. The big trouble is that there is a BIG oil shortage for Japan, which, even if captures SRA WITHOUTH ANY DAMAGE, is unable to get enough oil to feed more than 40% of heavy industry. Actually, if Japan achieves the peak levels of aircraft production, no less than 80% of HI will go to aircraft production (assuming no blockade and capture of all SRA resources). In other words, the Japanese economy will collapse even withouth blockade or strategic bombing by mid-1943. Thatīs Nikīs experience with Kaiser73 and my own experience against Nik in the 42A scenario.Itīs true that PDU will allow the Japanese to produce lots of Ki-44īs and Ki-61īs by late 42, but the price to be paid latter is huge.



ctangus -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 3:59:34 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: spence

quote:

not a 100 % true. Japan IS stronger than historical in 1942 thanks to ability to upgrade useless Nates to Tojos and Tonies, but once when Allies start to reciving P-47s, P-38J and Corsairs then Allies becomes stronger than historical.


How is it that having the historical numbers of the historical planes makes the Allies stronger than IRL? Pitting those historical numbers of historical planes against ahistorical numbers of greatly superior planes undermines your proposition IMHO.




I play allies, but I'll answer this one. It does give you higher numbers of 2nd generation fighters on the front lines than were seen IRL. pauk's comments were referring to a game with PDU on.

I believe it's generally agreed that ops losses were higher IRL than are seen in the game. With PDU on, that gives one more frames available to put into your front-line units.

As an example - my most advanced PBEM is in early Feb 43. I've upgraded 4 VMF squadrons to Corsairs. 2 or 3 of those had Hellcats listed as their historical upgrade. So I currently have 2-4X as many Corsairs on the frontlines as I would with PDU off. (And yes, my opponent has more Helens/Tojos/Tonies than IRL. IMO I endured that and am starting to receive the benefit.)

Back to the OP's question: are the Japs too powerful? Definitely not. Despite being an allied FB I think we see more early allied victories in the AARs than Japanese ones. With the advantages he created for himself, I'd be disappointed in the game engine if PzB wasn't able to cause trouble for his opponent in mid-44.



mdiehl -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 4:26:24 AM)

quote:

they couldn't do better than it was in RL - thanks to poor decisions of WWI soldier who believed that he is a greatest strategiest in the world of all times...


I suspect that view is common. It is certainly the one perpetuated by the surviving German general staff postwar. In effect "and we would have gotten away with it without that dratted "Hitler's Meddling And Mind Control Effect"(Tm). I don't think that claim is accurate though. I can think of several ways in which the Allies might have done FAR BETTER whither or no Hitler in the picture.

1. The Battle of the Atlantic. Had US Admiral Ernie King been less of a wholesale paranoic (as regards relationships with the UK), US convoy escort systems would have been organized far earlier than they actually were. Throw in shore commands with a clue about simple things like maintaining coastal blackouts, and a willingness to trust British intel analysis about German boat positions, and the UBoat campaign would have been about half as successful as it was, and the Uboats would have started losing badly in American waters by the end of 1942 rather than crossing the threshold in mid-1943.

2. Stalin takes intel about the German build up on his border seriously.

3. The US bombing campaign continues to strike ball bearing plants rather than giving up just as a crisis started to develop in German industry. Or, alternatively, the US starts pounding infrastructure like railroads and dams early in the campaign.

4. French generals in 1940 show up other than a day late and a dollar short.



Titanwarrior89 -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 4:29:08 AM)

Yes they Definitely are in some areas.  Come on guys.  The japs did not have a chance from the first shot fired.  It was over when it started.  It was just a matter of time.

How ever I do like the set up on the jap production overall.  Not historical but makes for a good game.  Even though I am into historical wargames.[:D]



Andrew Brown -> RE: Are the Japanese now TOO powerful?? (8/9/2006 4:51:23 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bombur
The big trouble is that there is a BIG oil shortage for Japan, which, even if captures SRA WITHOUTH ANY DAMAGE, is unable to get enough oil to feed more than 40% of heavy industry.


Do you have some more details about this? Such as how many HI points you have, and how many oil points you have currently?

Thanks,
Andrew



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