RE: Operation Sun Spot (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Sun Spot (7/2/2008 2:08:53 PM)

11/11/43 to 11/13/43
 
Operation Sun Spot:  D-Day for the British Empire troops was the 12th.  Port Blair was mined after all, but over two days of landings thus far, damage has been fairly light (putting CLs and DDs into the troop transport convoys definately helps absorb the sting of shore guns).  There hasn't been any appearance by Japanese combat ships, but the Jap airforce put in an appearance, and the results have been gratifying from an Allied point of view.

On the 12th, Jap strikes sortied mainly from Victoria Point - well over 100 aircraft that targeted primarily the carriers.  On the day, the Japs lost 123 aircraft (95 a2a, 18 flak, 10 ops) to the Allies' 43 (40 a2a, 3 ops).  I was disappointed my bombers targeting Victoria Point didn't sortie from Rangoon, but John apparently perceived this as a lack of intent, so he loaded up Victoria Point and Tavoy for the 13th.  This time, the Allied bombers did fly in massive numbers and destroyed 167 Jap aircraft, mostly on the ground (33 a2a, 122 field, 1 flak, 11 ops).  On the 13th, the Allies lost just 16 aircraft.  So, over the past two days, the Japs have lost 290 aircraft, the Allies 59.  John has temporarily abandoned those airfields.  None of the Jap bombers scored hits on the RN fleet.

On the ground, the troops have come ashore with minimal disruption.  The Allies thus far have about 850 AV on the ground.  The defenses look like 16th Division/A and four smaller guards types units with an AV of about 400.  They'll be dug in so, I'll probably have to bring some reinforcements from Rangoon.  I won't try a deliberate attack until all the troops have unloaded.

Thus far, though, I think this is the most well-managed invasion I've attempted in my two games (as far as getting the troops ashore with minimal losses).  Having Rangoon in Allied hands (to allow LRCAP and to prevent Jap strikes from there) and imbedding the CLs in the transports are the reasons for the success to to this point.

Operation Crescent Moon:  CV Franklin, a CVL, and two CVEs just arrived at Panama City and are heading to Pearl Harbor.  I would like to have them join the invasion, but I might move out before they can arrive.  Most troops are prepped now about 20-25 for the targeted bases on Formosa.  I think Okinawa rather than Luzon could be the fall-back target.  SigInt reports John is still strengthening his Luzon garrison, but Okinawa looks about the same (a recent report indicated 45,540 troops at Kadina).

Iwo:  Mines are now 8,000.  The CVs departed Iwo on the 13th and moved due south 180 miles.  They'll continue another 180 and then turn back.  This was simply a sortie to make sure I didn't fall into a predictable routine at Iwo.  All troops here (about 4800 AV) have now fully recovered from the invasion, so they are ready to go.  I have another division and some other troops at Midway and Hawaii, and would like to get them to Iwo in one piece.  The Jap CVs remain at Saipan, but John has stationed Glen-equipped subs in the waters around Midway and the Hawaiians.

Australia:  The Aussies have taken Cooktown.

Points:  Japs 43,000; Allies 25,200.  BB Haruna confirmed sunk, but CA Hagura and the other badly damaged captial ships (like Hiei and Aoba) haven't appeared, so perhaps they made port in time.



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Sun Spot (7/2/2008 8:33:58 PM)

My opponent has been posting comments with titles like "Operation Naskra" and "The Coming Storm" the past few days.  I think this is mostly disinformation intended to confuse and rattle.  It isn't working, primarily because the Allies have taken the initiative, and because I can't think of any offensive operation that the Japs could mount that would be a real concern to the Allies right now.  Here's my analysis of likely threats and situations around the map:

Likely Threat:  The only coming storm that would worry me is losing a major carrier battle impacting my ability to proceed with Operation Crescent Moon (the invasion of Formosa).  I can't stop John from attacking, but I can keep my CVs in or near Iwo so that they benefit from LBA. 

Port Blair:  A Jap combat TF might show up here, but it won't threaten the inevitable outcome of the invasion.  Besides, this is too remote a location to generate any kind of storm.

Burma:  Allied air has completely stymied any Jap ground offensives here.

China:  All quiet, no Jap troop build ups anywhere.

Alaska:  The Japs could mount an amphibious operation here, but it's a backwater and would be a waste of assets.

Hawaii/Midway:  No way he messes with big Allied air concentrations here.

Palmyra/etc:  Remote, who cares at this point?

Iwo Jima: Please. He's going to invade an island defended by AV 4800? Now, Tori Shima is a possibility, but would he really risk a big air/sea battle over this little island?

Australia/NZ:  He could try an operation to seize a base or cut off some of the Aussie troops in the Townsville/Cloncurry area, but that wouldn't accomplish anything important.

So, I say John is running a bluff.  Until I see differently, the Allies will proceed with offensive plans.



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Sun Spot (7/2/2008 10:15:04 PM)

I went for a run and gave this some thought.  The only possibility I can come up with is that John thinks my little CV excursion into the Philippine Sea is "the real thing" - an invasion of Luzon.  I just got a turn from him, so I'll see in a minute.



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Sun Spot (7/3/2008 2:10:48 PM)

11/14/43 to 11/16/43
 
Iwo Jima Vicinity:  My carriers made it back to the Iwo CAP umbrella without incident, but the KB pursued "feverishly" (an adjective also describing John's email comments and the titles he gave to his AAR posts).  My little foray west triggered a violent reaction from John.  As I mulled it over, it seems clear that once that big reinforcement convoy arrived at Iwo a few weeks ago, John assumed the next Allied move was imminent.  So he must think I'm heading for Luzon (and SigInt has disclosed several new Jap divisions there).  But I'm not quite ready to move, yet.  Tori Shima is 81% to level one airfield.  I'd like to have it up and running as P-38s could then provide LRCAP to the invasion fleet for quite awhile.  Secondly, my troops are about 25-30% prepped and I'd like them to embark on the transports at about 50%.  But I may stage another CV sortie to keep John "hopping."  Iwo now has 9,000 mines.

CenPac:  SigInt showed 21st Mixed Brigade on a Maru heading for Palau, plus 49,663 troops at Marcus.

Australia:  The Aussie's are closing on Cloncurry, which is held by 4 units.  John essentially vacated NE Australia and gave the Aussies the keys; but he still hold Broken Hill and Adelaide in force.

Port Blair:  The Allied troops tried a deliberate attack onteh 15th.  It came in at 0:1 (barely missing a 1:1) and showed forts at 7.  The Japs lost 1181/14 to 1145/20/11.  I'm loading reinforcements at Rangoon and they sail tomorrow.



Canoerebel -> Operation Crescent Moon (7/3/2008 5:29:00 PM)

11/17/43
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  It appears that the KB is heading west.  I assume John will be repositioning it somewhere closer to what he must perceive to be the next Allied invasion target.  On the one hand, having the KB stationed within striking distance of Formosa is bad news as it means I'll have to deal with both carrier-based and land-based air, but it will permit me to reinforce easily.  I have a division, two RCTs, and a few smaller units stationed in Hawaii awaiting arrival of CV Hancock, two CVLs, and a handful of CVEs.  With the KB out of the way, this force should be able to make it to Iwo relatively easily.  I'm beginning to focus on the order of battle for the Formosa invasion.  The troops are prepping for two bases.  The invasion will include 9 divisions, four RCT, combat engineers, artillery, tanks, tank destroyers, headquarters (including an amphibious force), two large aviation regiments, and two 90-unit base forces.  To carry these troops, there will be 15 APs, 70 LST/LSD/LCI, 258 AKs of various sizes (mostly 7.2k), and a host of support ships (MSW, etc.).  I haven't counted carrier and combat ships yet.  Embarkation day may be two weeks off.

Operation Sun Spot:  The first wave transports have finished unloading.  Damaged ships are retiring to Trincomalee.  The rest of the transports plus combat ships and carriers will retire to Diamond Harbor to refuel and replenish.  Then the carriers and combat ships will return to escort the second wave. 



Canoerebel -> Operation Crescent Moon (7/5/2008 2:45:32 PM)

11/18/43 to 11/21/43
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  The troops will probably depart from Iwo Jima around December 7, with D-Day at Formosa (or possibly backup targets Okinawa or Luzon) around the 12th.  The troops are prepping nicely, and I'm waiting to see if any further reinforcements will come from Midway.  The KB moved from Saipan toward Okinawa, and then "disappeared" into the vastness of Japan.  At least part of the TF moved up the east coast, and then disappeared either into port or into the sea to the north.  Allied reconnaisance aircraft from Pakhoi on the China coast are scouting Luzon.  Soon, the airfield at Tori Shima will be operational permitting scouting of Okinawa and, I think, Formosa.

Operation SunSpot:  The first wave is ashore (AV 1100); the carriers are replenished and swapped out Seafires and SeaHurricanes for Corsairs, and Albacores for Avengers; the combat TF is replenished; and the second wave convoy is NW of Port Blair awaiting arrival of the carriers and combat ships before heading in.  While the "cat was away" on the replenishing mission, John sent in a DD TF that sank two PG, one MSW, and 3 AKs that were having trouble unloading a few straggling troop detachments.  The undamaged transports involved in the first wave went to Diamond Harbor, and are now moving forward to Rangoon in order to prepare for the Tavoy invasion, which will get underway as soon as Port Blair falls freeing up the carriers and combat ships.

Operation Galaxy:  This will be the invasion of Tavoy.  Six or eight Chinese units are sitting in Rangoon 100% prepped.  The Jap defenses appear to be about 30k strong.  I think this is pretty doable, what with bombers and fighters from Rangoon and the availability of bombardement ships.  This will follow very closesly upon the fall of Port Blair (or even prior thereto, if it's clear the fall of Port Blair is imminent).  It would be nice to time this with Operation Crescent Moon.

Australia:  The Aussies reclaimed Coen on the 20th and tried a deliberate attack at Cloncurry on the 21st.  This attack came off at high odds and inflicted about 5x casualties on the defenders, but the Japs held.  Cloncurry ought to fall in a day or two.  That will clear eastern Australia of Japs, and the Aussies can then mull over their next move - southern route (Adelaide), middle route (Broken Hill), or northern route (toward Tennant Creek from Cloncurry).  The middle route is most likely.



Canoerebel -> Operation Sun Spot (7/7/2008 2:07:59 PM)

11/22/43 to 11/25/43
 
Operation Sun Spot:  The reinforcements have landed and the fall of Port Blair to the British Empire troops is imminent.  A 6:1 shock attack on the 25th dropped forts from 6 to 1.  I believe the Allies will take Port Blair on the 26th.  This will deprive the Japs of a level 3 airfield that was always a threat to RN operations in the Bay of Bengal, and will also help provide cover for Allied operations against Tavoy (near term) and Victoria Point (probably around New Years Day).

Operation Galaxy:  Troops are already loading at Rangoon for the invasion of Tavoy.  Nearly all of these troops are prepped 100% and the AV in the first wave should be about 1600.  The Jap defenses look about 30k strong and will be well dug in, but with Allied air and bombardment TFs readily available from Rangoon, this base should fall relatively quickly.

Operation Crescent Moon: Troops at Iwo and further to the rear (Midway, Pearl Harbor, West Coast) continue to prepare for the invasion of Formosa.  Embarkation date is probably two weeks away.  Patrol aircraft from Pakhoi on the China coast are reconning bases on Luzon and Formosa.  Patrol aicraft from Iwo handle southern Japan and Okinawa.  No recent signs of the KB since it "disappared" into Japan a week or so ago, but recent recon reported many CAs at Nagasaki, so that could be where the KB is stationed.  Nagasaki would be a likely sport to permit quick interception of my invasion fleet, so there should be a big carrier battle in the offing.

Iwo and Vicinity:  A DM just arrived at Iwo, joining the ML already there.  Iwo's mines are 12,000+.  Tori Shima has about 500, and the DM will begin adding to that total.  Tori is 92% to level one airfield.  I'll station P-38s there to help with LRCAP for the invasion fleet for as long as possible.  CA Haguro confirmed sunk, joining BB Haruna as casualties of the Battle of Iwo Jima several weeks back.

Australia:  The Aussies reclaimed Cloncurry on the 22nd.



Canoerebel -> Operations Sunspot and Galaxy (7/7/2008 7:10:12 PM)

11/26/43 and 11/27/43
 
Operation Sunspot:  The Allies (mainly British Empire troops) took Port Blair on the 26th.

Operation Galaxy:  The first wave of British Empire and Chinese troops are loaded aboard transports that shall leave Rangoon tonight.  The British combat TF will leave Port Blair tonight and should hit Tavoy tomorrow night.  The RN CVs will take station about 120 miles west of Tavoy.  D-Day for this operation is November 29.  British bombers based at Meiktila, Rangoon, and even Kunming seem to be able to readily suppress Jap air in the area (Tavoy, Victoria Point, Moulmein, and Bangkok).  I think the sight of British CVs off the coast will tempt John to try to load up one or more of the airfields for a big strike, but barring that (or the unlikely appearance of the KB across the narrow reaches of the Malay peninsula), I don't think the Japs can offer much resistance.  The Tavoy garrison is 30k strong and will be well dug in, but I think Tavoy will fall in a week or two.

Operation Crescent Moon:  No big news here.  Reconnaissance aircraft are giving the Allies a good look at Luzon, Formosa, and Okinawa (and Kyushu too), so I have a decent feel for what I'm up against.  Recon reported at least one CV in port at Nagasaki.  Embarkation date tentatively set for December 7.



MrPlow9 -> RE: Operations Sunspot and Galaxy (7/7/2008 7:48:43 PM)

Great AAR! Ive been reading this for a while now, single handedly got me to Register just so I could reply lol. I was wondering, there are so many operations being conducted at the moment all over the Pacific that im having a small amount of trouble following it all. If it is not to much trouble is it possible for you to post a screenshot of the zoomed out map showing yours and enemy bases, just so I can get an idea of what the frontlines are?
Thanks again for a wonderful AAR!



Canoerebel -> RE: Operations Sunspot and Galaxy (7/7/2008 8:01:54 PM)

Plow, welcome to the Forums and thanks for the kind words.

I'll get you some screenshots as soon as I can.  I don't have a good working copy of Adobe Acrobat right now, and that's what I use for screenshots.  But I'm going to have to purchase a copy shortly.



Canoerebel -> RE: Operations Sunspot and Galaxy (7/8/2008 2:12:02 AM)

11/28/43 to 11/30/43
 
Operation Sunspot:  Allied troops have already eliminated the engineering and small infantry units, leaving just the 16th/A Division, which should be wiped out shortly. Some of the Allied units are already prepping for future operations against Victoria Point and Georgetown.  Operation Sunspot was an unqualified success.

Operation Galaxy: D-Day was the 30th, as British, Indian, Burmese, and Chinese came ashore in good shape.  The defenses consist of 31st Division and four engineering units of various types.  It will take two or three days for all the troops to reach shore, and a second wave is two days behind.  I won't try my first attack until all the first wave is ashore.  Jap units have been sighted on the Malay Peninsula road, and I think they are reinforcements for Tavoy.  I don't think they can reach Tavoy in time, however, due to the bad road system.  Singora is the only Jap airfield with aircraft, and two big Liberator III raids from Rangoon have destroyed some 60-70 aircraft on the ground.  At the moment, the Royal Airforce controls the skies in Burma and Siam.

Iwo Vicinity:  I'm trying something new.  I've sent two big groups of mixed merchant and warships in two directions from Iwo, one to the north, the other south, hoping to confuse John a bit.  These ships left Iwo on the 30th.  Tomorrow the carriers will move out behind them hoping to strike a big blow against a Japanese port, probably Tokyo or Osaka.  Recon places two CVs at Nagasaki, and I'm beginning to think John sent the KB to Japan for upgrades.  At Iwo, three Jap subs hit mines.  Tori Shima's airfield is 98% to level one.

The Middle Pacific:  What appears to be a Mini-KB has been raiding the sea lanes far to the NW of Midway, damaging five or six empty TKs (and sinking two or three) that were returning from Iwo.  I don't have anything to contest this area, but most of the TKs will be in Midway LRCAP range in a day or two.

Australia:  Now that the Allies have reclaimed the eastern seaboard, they are repositioning troops for the next phase.  It will take a good ten days for the units that took Cloncurry, Cairns, and other northern outposts to get in position.



Canoerebel -> Eating One's Words (7/8/2008 6:28:54 PM)

There is much going on in several places, and I'll post an update later today.  But there has been one development that is most satisfying.  Back in mid-June (in real life), John sent me an email message about his position at Moulmein, which I quoted in my post covering October 6 through 10, 1943 as follows:
 
'Thailand:  John noticed the massive Allied army across the river from Moulmein (AV is about 5950) and decided to give me some advice in his email: "Spotted all your victorious Rangoon troops.  I would REALLY like you to Shock Attack across that river to Moulmein!  Those troops are well supplied, fully dug-in, and will not retreat and/or be evacuated."  I'll give it a shot anyhow.'

With the Allied invasion of Tavoy progressing, the Japs have decided to retreat. On December 1, there were 17 Jap units 130k strong at Moulmein. The next day there were 10 units 70k strong.



Canoerebel -> Dear Reader, I Misled You.... (7/8/2008 7:10:32 PM)

12/1/43 and 12/2/43
 
Dear Reader, I misled you.  I had too.  For the past month or so (game time), I have been referring to Operation Crescent Moon, the Allied invasion of Formosa (with Luzon and Okinawa as alternates).  In fact, those aren't the objectives.  But I could not take a chance that an innocent, accidental remark about some little yet key detail might jeapardize everything - some tiny thing that might suddenly trigger something in John's mind allowing him to piece together the puzzle. 

This operation is now underway and John is aware that something is up, so I can reveal some (but not all) of the details.  But I'll begin first with important developments elsewhere:

Operation Galaxy:  The Allies are landing in good order at Tavoy, and launched their first attack on the 2nd.  This came off at 1:1, dropped forts from 6 to 5, and cost the Japs 892/25/2 to 1153/48/1.  Jap reinforcements are on the way.  29th Mixed Brigade is a hex away and suffered 200 casualties to Wellingtons, but the road is bad and it should be tough for this unit to make it to Tavoy in time to help.  Tavoy can hold for awhile, but the defenses are cracking.  The Allies will attack again tomorrow.

Moulmein:  John recognizes the threat Tavoy poses to his flank, and he has begun withdrawing troops from Moulmein.  Where he had 17 units some 130k strong on the 1st, he now has just 10 units 70k strong.  Tomorrow, the Allied troops (5400 AV) will shock attack, and the units are set "to follow."  I want to apply some pressure here, although I don't think I can turn the retreat into a route.

Operation Crescent Moon:  The TFs sent south from Iwo several days ago were decoys.  The real McCoy moved north a day later, departing Iwo Jima on November 30, followed by most carriers and combat ships on December 1.  John may not have caught on to the move for one day (bad weather and the "clutter" of so many Allied ships all over the place, including the decoy force and various transports moving between Iwo and Midway), but he certainly did by the 2nd.  That day, 22 Jills sortied from Tokyo against the American carriers, which put up 350 Hellcats for CAP.  None of the Jills got through closed on American ships, and 12 were splashed.  John's email remark:  "Where to now?  Northern Honshu?  Hokkaido?  Let us decide the Fate of the Empire.  Massive coded transmissions to LBA, Kaigun, and Troops..."

Far to the north of Midway, John sent what appears to be a Mini-KB.  Over four or five days, Jap carrier planes hit 7 to 10 emtpy tankers returning from Iwo Jima, sinking perhaps three.  These Jap carriers apparently vacated the area a day or two ago, probably because John realized that the American carriers were moving north from Iwo.  Northwest of Pearl Harbor, CVL Bataan and some DDs stumbled upon a Jap sub, which fired defective torps at the carrier.  Bataan hopes to rendezvous with the main carrier force.

Iwo Jima and Vicinity:  Tori Shima just went to level one airfield, and the Allies moved in two high-experience Dutch PBM patrol squadrons from CBI, a Corsair squadron, and a small F-5 recon unit.  This, combined with the airfield at Pakhoi, permits the Allies to cover most everthing from the South China Sea to the far end of the Sea of Japan and nearly to the Aleutians.

Australia:  The Allies continue to position base forces at the newly captured cities along the eastern seaboard, while combat troops are on the road south where in a few weeks time they'll begin the next operation.

Points:  Japs, 43,197; Allies, 25,787.



Canoerebel -> Colossal Carrier Battle in the Making? (7/9/2008 3:41:03 PM)

12/3/43
 
Operation "Crescent Moon" (true name to be revealed in a day or two):  The Allied invasion force continues to move north of Iwo Jima, now 720 miles distant from Iwo, and NNE of Tokyo perhaps seven or eight hexes.  Most of the ships are in a tight grouping, but a few transports and a slow BB TF trailed by a hex.  Betties from Marcus put a TT into BB Oklahoma, doing light damage; she'll retire to Midway.

John's reaction to this invasion force surprised me.  I had expected him to send his carriers and combat ships north through the Sea of Japan, where they would be sheltered and protected by LRCAP, and then to enter the Pacific through the straits between Honshu and Hokkaido.  But he's sent them up the eastern seaboard.  On the 3rd, they were sighted in multiple TFs spread out between just south of Tokyo and the vicinity of Osaka.  I'm assuming he's throwing everything hie has into this battle.

Tomorrow, the Allied force will be NNE of Tokyo about 420 or 480 miles.  As far as the Allies are concerned, this would be a great time for a carrier battle, because LBA will be less of a factor than it would be a day or two later (when I would be drawing closer to some big bases).  John's closest airfield, Sendai, is only a level 2.  Tokyo and Ominato are big, but just that little too far to really be factors.

The best thing John could do is to wait one more day to give battle.  So I'm crossing my fingers and hoping he doesn't wait.  Given the course and position of his CVs, I don't think he is.  Still, he has a massive number of carriers, so I may get clobbered anyhow.  Waiting will not help him in one respect.  In two days, the
Allied carrier force will be joined by another CV and two CVLs that have been sprinting northwest ever since they arrived in Panama City weeks ago.  I had hoped this group might catch the Mini-KB that was preying on Allied shipping between Iwo and Midway, but I was a day late.

The outcome of the upcoming battle should be decisive.  If the Allies lose in a big way, I think it's too late in the game to recover (since the Allies are already far behind due to John's excellent work and successes throughout the game).  But if this operation succeeds, the Allies have a chance to really turn the tables on the Japs.  Given the bad position I've been in most of the game, I feel fortunate to have this chance.

CBI:  The Japs withdrew from Moulmein, breaking the vow of their commander-in-chief to never be driven out or withdraw.  The ground troops will give chase.  At Tavoy, reinforcements in the form of a mixed brigade somehow travelled that poor road (it's yellow, for heaven's sake) in a single day!  In my other game with Miller, my troops make about two miles a day, so what gives?  Anyhow, I think it will be too little too late.  The second Allied deliberate attack came in at 3:1, dropped forts to four, and cost the Japs 643/36/1 to 955/24/1.  Additional troops are on the way, and all the bombers that were focusing on Moulmein have turned their attention to Tavoy.  To the rear, troops, engineers, and base forces are already prepping for distant locales as the Allies see opportunites now that the Jap MLR has broken (temporarily, of course, and until John can establish a new line, which I think will be at Bangkok).



Andav -> RE: Colossal Carrier Battle in the Making? (7/9/2008 5:41:35 PM)


A lurker here dropping in to say I have really enjoyed this AAR (and its companion). Did you get that copy of Adobe yet? A screen shot of this would be great!

Keep up the good work!

Walter



Canoerebel -> RE: Colossal Carrier Battle in the Making? (7/9/2008 5:46:35 PM)

You're wish is my command. I still don't have Adobe Acrobat, so the map lacks comments. But you can see the general position of Allied and Jap forces.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/D6483070AB014D9BB607E744373189BA.jpg[/image]



Cap Mandrake -> RE: Colossal Carrier Battle in the Making? (7/9/2008 6:06:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're wish is my command. I still don't have Adobe Acrobat, so the map lacks comments. But you can see the general position of Allied and Jap forces.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/D6483070AB014D9BB607E744373189BA.jpg[/image]


Cool...Northern Honshu or Hokkaido. If you are trying to provoke a fight this will certainly do it. [:)] Good luck to you, man.



Kereguelen -> RE: Colossal Carrier Battle in the Making? (7/9/2008 6:11:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're wish is my command. I still don't have Adobe Acrobat, so the map lacks comments. But you can see the general position of Allied and Jap forces.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/D6483070AB014D9BB607E744373189BA.jpg[/image]


Looks promising, but you still steer a dangerous course: Be careful if you see any Japanese carriers around - they may trigger a reaction of your CV's right into the range of Japanese land-based planes (Tokyo) [I hate this game feature].

And maybe now it is the time to move some subs into the path of Japanese TF's that certainly have left or will leave port to interdict you?

Tavoy: It is possible that he airlifted a brigade in.



Canoerebel -> RE: Colossal Carrier Battle in the Making? (7/9/2008 8:13:17 PM)

Yeah, I hate the react feature too.  Not much I can do about it now, though.  My transports require carrier cover.  All my carriers are in CVs set to follow transports.

I will post another update shortly.  On 12/4, there wasn't a carrier battle.  John has gathered his CVs at Tokyo.  So the big battle could occur tomorrow or the next day...



Canoerebel -> RE: Colossal Carrier Battle in the Making? (7/9/2008 9:36:09 PM)

12/4/43
 
Operation "Crescent Moon":  No carrier battle today.  John apparently is gathering his forces at Tokyo.  My ships are just 420 miles NE and are heading toward the invasion target, so they will remain on course and a battle will take place as soon as John commits his ships.  He's wise to wait until his CVs will be augmented by LBA, but the delay should allow CV Hancock and two CVLs to join the invasion force.  They will rendezvous tomorrow, or at least close to within 60 to 120 miles.  That will give the Allies 7 CVs, 8 CVLs, and 8 or 10 CVEs (some of those are air defense, some replenishment).  Each carrier TF consists of a CV, CVL, and a BB (except Hancock's, which has two CVLs and doesn't yet have a BB).  I don't think John has figured out the invasion target yet.  It's got to be down to just a few possibilities in his mind.  I hope I've caught him by surprise.  Every indication I have is that he was expecting an invasion of Luzon, Formosa, Okinawa, or Kyushu.  But he's had time to get all his ships and aircraft in position, so it's going to be a tough fight nevertheless.

Iwo Vicinity:  What a help it has been to have Tori Shima go to level one airfield.  Three recon squadrons and two long-range patrol squadrons are covering a great deal of enemy territory, and taking a look at the Jap bases in northern Honshu and points north.  That's got to be driving John crazy.  I am "assuming" that the real show will draw John's full attention, so I hope to use this opportunity to move alot of empty ships out of Iwo and back to Hawaii or the West Coast, while also sending reinforcements and supplies from there to Iwo.  I did not leave Iwo toothless:  there is a good combat TF with two fast BBs (Indiana and South Dakota had SYS damage in the low teens, so I didn't send them with the invasion force).  The port has 17,000 mines.

Burma:  When John evacuated Moulmein, he left behind a base force (or it was moving awfully slow).  My shock attack found only that unit in the hex, and since my troops were set to "follow," they advanced quickly.  The armored units advanced a hex; John saw an opportunity to hit them hard, so set his troops to shock attack; but in the meantime my infantry somehow covered 45 miles in a single day, so his attack was an utter failure.  The Japs lost 11,649/277/1 to 355/11/2.  So the retreat may indeed turn into a route.  At Tavoy, a 3:1 deliberate attack reduced forts to 3 and inflicted 1118/35/2 to 1037/9/1.  The Allies will try a shock attack tomorrow.

Points:  Japs, 43,250; Allies, 25,939.




Canoerebel -> Where the Rubber Hits the Road (7/9/2008 9:58:35 PM)

Map of the situation near Japan on December 4, 1943. Allied invasion force is NE (true) of Tokyo; CV Hancock and two CVLs are in solo TF further to the NE, and on course to rendezvous tomorrow; massive Jap fleet (roster listed in black-shaded box on map) is at Tokyo.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E2315AE5C0E44AF8899263316BD39816.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> Now is the time for all good men... (7/9/2008 11:36:13 PM)

12/5/43
 
A momentous turn, even though nothing major happened, because it's the prelude to what will take place either tomorrow or the following day.  This battle will decide the war.

Operation "Crescent Moon" (real name to be disclosed soon):  Forces are converging and alot is happening, so I'll detail things one at a time to help myself keep track:

1.  The Japanese navy did not sortie against the Allied invasion fleet (with the possible exception of combat ships sent to Sendai to contest an invasion of the base, and then retiring back toward Tokyo when no Allied ships showed up).  Most of the Japanese navy is at Tokyo, with elements north and south, and at least some combat ships in the Sea of Japan.

2.  The invasion fleet changed course and moved northwesterly toward the straits between Hokkaido and Honshu, finishing the day 240 miles east of Ominato.  CV Hancock and her two CVL companions rendezvoued with the main fleet and were joined by BB Mississippi.  So now the Allies have 7 fleet carrier TFs - six with a CV, a CVL, and a BB, and one with a CV, two CVLs, and a BB.  There is a CVE TF consisting of four air-defense CVEs and a BB.  There are replenishment TFs with about four or five CVEs.

3.  Hancock and the two CVLs were still set to "strike airfield", and perhaps 35 bombers went after the base at Ominato, much to my surprise.  A big air battle took place with the CAP, with the Allies coming out ahead, but nevertheless the Allies lost some fighters to my chagrine.  Most of the carriers have full compliments, but a few are short and didn't draw from the replenishment CVEs for some reason.  I am fervently praying that they will do so before tomorrow. 

4.  On the day, the Japs lost 128 aircraft (89 a2a, 17 field, 11 flak, 11 ops) and the Allies 65 (51 a2a, 5 flak, 9 ops).  Recon from Tori Shima reported that there are only about 100 aircraft based at Ominato.  It is a level 6 airfield, so either the carrier-based air attack scared John off, or the base is inadequately garrisoned by base force personnel.  This is huge news, because Sendai is a small field (level 2).  It is possible this invasion caught John off guard and with insufficient base forces in the area - if so, that could be the most critical item in the entire game.  Or, John could have plenty of base forces and I may get my butt kicked from Ominato to Oahu.

5.  The main body of the invasion force will steam WSW taking position 60 miles east of Ominado.  I've also created three solo DD TFs.  These shall proceed to Ominato, Aomori, and Hakodate, respectively, and take station, both to check for mines and to see if any Jap combat ships show up at these places.  These DDs (each with 11 SYS damage) are sacrificial sheep. 

6.  A small transport TF has detached from the main body and shall proceed to one of the small islands east of Hokkaido, carrying a battalion each of parachutists and raiders.  It is hoped that the target will be vacant and that the Allies will those gain a small port to permit replenishment and to give my ships a place to retire to if (when, I mean) they sustain damage).

7.  I predict that the big battle will take place tomorrow.  It is an awful feeling to send such a huge force "into the teeth of the lion," but this is no time for flinching.  Given how far behind I fell in the game, I feel fortunate that I have even a chance of clawing my way back into the game.  Here's to success, but if I fail it's been...well, real.

8.  PBYs from Iwo Jima hit two AKs in the Sea of Japan, and an AR off the eastern seaboard north of Tokyo (what in the world is THAT doing out there?).  It seems that John is sending troops north as fast as he can.

9.  Allied subs are flooding the region.  Well to the south, Skate torpedoed one of three MLSs west of Kyushu.  It's good to eliminate one of their kind, and it's an encouraging sign that perhaps this invasion caught even the Jap minelayers out of position.  One can only hope...

10.  Carriers sighted at Tokyo today:  Taiho, Unryu, Ryuho, Unyo, Chitose, plus BB Kongo.  I can't believe John didn't send the KB through the Sea of Japan.  The only explanation is that he feared the target was Sendai.

Near Moulmein:  The Allied troops shock attacked the units retreating from Moulmein, driving this group back into Raeheng (spelling?).  This time, however, I did not set them to follow.  These units are already prepping for new targets, and will retreat to Rangoon to replenish and move quickly.

Tavoy:  The Allies took Tavoy after an 8:1 shock attack, the Japs losing 1880/37 to 995/13.  These troops, too, shall remain in Tavoy and are now prepping for new destinations (as are troops at Port Blair, Rangoon, Ceylon, and India).  Rather than get involved in a land war in Asia as I have with Miller, the Allies will use the Royal Navy to move quickly down the Malay Peninsula.

Points:  Japs, 43,250; Allies, 25,939.  These totals are about to change dramatically.




Q-Ball -> RE: Now is the time for all good men... (7/9/2008 11:46:07 PM)

Good luck tommorow, and if you would, please post the COMBAT TEXT of the massive battle sequence, just this once.  Would like to see all the bomb hits, etc.  You can take out all the routine stuff elsewhere on the map.

12/6/43....almost exactly 2 years after Pearl Harbor! 





Nachoz -> RE: Now is the time for all good men... (7/9/2008 11:47:51 PM)

Holding my breath....



Canoerebel -> RE: Now is the time for all good men... (7/9/2008 11:51:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Good luck tommorow, and if you would, please post the COMBAT TEXT of the massive battle sequence, just this once.  Would like to see all the bomb hits, etc.  You can take out all the routine stuff elsewhere on the map.

12/6/43....almost exactly 2 years after Pearl Harbor! 



The invasion force should go in on the 7th. This is purely coincidental, but a nice one (assuming the Allies come out on top).

I'll be away for the next few hours, so John should post the results of the battle first. I think he will welcome readers, even the few who have sworn off his AAR while monitoring mine and giving helpful suggestions now and then.



Canoerebel -> Reverse Mariannas Turkey Shoot (7/10/2008 3:26:12 AM)

12/6/43
 
I don't have WitP loaded on my home computer, so I can't watch the combat replay.  But I can read the combat report, which I have just done, and it isn't pretty.

You will recall that the Allied invasion fleet was closing to within 60 miles of Ominato, and that the Jap carriers were at Tokyo.  So it looked like a big carrier battle was in the offing.

Sure enough, the Allied carriers launched, but the Jap carriers didn't!  (Again, I haven't seen the combat replay, so I don't even know yet where the Jap CVs were).  Ten Allied strikes, nine of them quite small, went in against some kind of Jap naval force, and encountered 900 Japanese fighters!  There were 542 Zekes, 158 Zeros, 161 Tonys, and a smattering of others.

The Jap fighters shot down 560 Allied aircraft (141 Hellcats, 218 SBDs and Helldivers, and 201 TBFs and TBMs). The Allies got just 121 Jap fighters (101 Tonys, 12 Zekes, 3 Zeros, and 6 Tojos).

So what were the Allies attacking? Those of you reading John's AAR will know, but I won't know until tomorrow morning.

There are several ways John could have orchestrated this that I could only tip my hat to in congratulations: (1) He loaded his carriers with fighters and sent them forward, their CAP augmented by LRCAP, or (2) His carriers had their bombers, but he stood them down, maximized CAP, and set up the augmented LRCAP. Either strategy would be very clever and I bow to him.

There is a third possibility, though, that would really trouble me. If he kept his carriers back out of harm's way and sent forward a modest combat TF to draw a strike, covering that combat TF with LRCAP from carriers and LBA, that would be the epitome of gaminess. In this game, as we all know, carrier TFs can't process information and act in a manner approximating reality. In real life, an Allied carrier TF approaching Japan and knowing that Jap carriers were fairly close by wouldn't launch everything against a modest combat TF. Obviously, if we could, any player would issue orders to make sure a 100% capacity strike wasn't launched against inconsequential shipping when enemy carriers were present, especially in large numbers.

I'll find out tomorrow exactly what happened. If it was one of the first two "scenarios," or something like them, I tip my hat to John and, even if I lose this battle and have to concede, will do so knowing I've lost to the better player. If, however, it was some artificial contrivance that worked the oddities of the game engine in weird ways to produce a ridiculous and highly unrealistic result, I'll be hacked.

The funny thing is, I think the Allies may still be in good shape. I won't know for sure until I see the combat replay tomorrow and then get into the file for the next turn, but there are some possibilities...

More tomorrow.

By the way, if any of you are privy to what John did through reading his AAR, and you are satisfied that there was nothing gamey about it, please reply. I'll sleep better knowing I came out on the short end in a fair fight.



Canoerebel -> RE: Reverse Mariannas Turkey Shoot (7/10/2008 3:59:40 AM)

I've scoured the combat report to see if I could find anything that would give me a clue about the events of the 6th.  Here's what I found:

An American sub encountered a Jap combat TF near Sendai:

Sub attack at 69,42

Japanese Ships
CA Atago
DD Arare
DD Natsugumo

Allied Ships
SS Grayling, hits 3,  on fire
 
All of the American American carrier-plane strikes went to the same hex.  Here's one example:

Day Air attack on TF at 69,42

Japanese aircraft
A6M2-N Rufe x 15
A6M5 Zeke x 542
J2M Jack x 9
A6M3a Zero x 158
F1M2 Pete  x 2
Ki-61 KAIc Tony x 161
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 10

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 7
SBD Dauntless x 34
TBM Avenger x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61 KAIc Tony: 2 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 7 destroyed
SBD Dauntless: 33 destroyed
TBM Avenger: 17 destroyed
 
Did John sent a CA/DD force (or evening something a little larger) forward of his carriers, and just off the coast of Japan, covered by massive numbers of LRCAP, while his CVs remained back out of harm's way?  Surely not.



pat.casey -> RE: Reverse Mariannas Turkey Shoot (7/10/2008 4:28:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/6/43

<snip>
By the way, if any of you are privy to what John did through reading his AAR, and you are satisfied that there was nothing gamey about it, please reply. I'll sleep better knowing I came out on the short end in a fair fight.



You attacked his main carrier concentration. Wasn't a sacraficial cruiser force under a CAP umbrella.



Canoerebel -> RE: Reverse Mariannas Turkey Shoot (7/10/2008 4:45:32 AM)

Pat, thanks!  So I tip my hat to John, a very clever and capable opponent, and now I can sleep well knowing I was bested in a fair fight.



Alfred -> RE: Reverse Mariannas Turkey Shoot (7/10/2008 7:04:07 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/6/43
 
There are several ways John could have orchestrated this that I could only tip my hat to in congratulations: (1) He loaded his carriers with fighters and sent them forward, their CAP augmented by LRCAP, or (2) His carriers had their bombers, but he stood them down, maximized CAP, and set up the augmented LRCAP. Either strategy would be very clever and I bow to him.

There is a third possibility, though, that would really trouble me. If he kept his carriers back out of harm's way and sent forward a modest combat TF to draw a strike, covering that combat TF with LRCAP from carriers and LBA, that would be the epitome of gaminess. In this game, as we all know, carrier TFs can't process information and act in a manner approximating reality. In real life, an Allied carrier TF approaching Japan and knowing that Jap carriers were fairly close by wouldn't launch everything against a modest combat TF. Obviously, if we could, any player would issue orders to make sure a 100% capacity strike wasn't launched against inconsequential shipping when enemy carriers were present, especially in large numbers.

I'll find out tomorrow exactly what happened. If it was one of the first two "scenarios," or something like them, I tip my hat to John and, even if I lose this battle and have to concede, will do so knowing I've lost to the better player. If, however, it was some artificial contrivance that worked the oddities of the game engine in weird ways to produce a ridiculous and highly unrealistic result, I'll be hacked.



I am intrigued why you think the first two tactics would not be gamey but the third tactic would be gamey.

WITP allows carriers to launch carrier trained and carrier capable air units. IRL there is no such capability. A unit needs constant practice in launching and landing on carriers to be able to actually be used effectively from a carrier. IRL no unit categorised as "carrier capable" could actually be embarked on a carrier as an augmentation. IRL you are either carrier trained and permanently stationed on the carrier or you are land based. What WITP allows is gamey.

On the other hand IRL it is not uncommon to have a bait/decoy operating in front of the main force. Think of Admiral Hipper in 1916 or Admiral Ozawa in 1944, to name just two historical examples. Can one really describe the employment of an historical tactic as being gamey? After all WITP is a game, not a true simulation, and because there is always a level of abstraction, there is always an element of playing within the game mechanics.

Alfred



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