Canoerebel -> Take the Long Road Home (10/30/2008 1:54:07 AM)
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3/12/44 to 3/16/44 A long period of relative quiet is about to come to an end as the Allies are preparing to go on the offensive in several areas. But first a summary of what has taken place since the Allies invaded Hokkaido in early December 1943: NoPac: After evacuating Hokkaido in January '44, the Allies concentrated on strengthening the defenses on Sikhalin Island and bringing in supplies, fuel, and reinforcements. Since John committed the KB down in the Malaya area, no real threats ever developed. Most of the ships damaged in the invasion (including CV Hancock and a CVL) are now well on their way to the West Coast. Most of the merchant shipping has just returned to Midway or is on the way to various West Coast ports. The airfield at Shikuka on Sikhalin Island just went to level seven and can now support B-29 raids (our house rules require at least level seven to support B-29 raids). These will commence in about a month when the first squadrons arrive. Over the next month or so, the Allies will attempt to recapture some or all of the Japanese-held Aleutians bases and possibly Paramushiro Jima. The Allied airfield at Onnekotan Maru just went to level 2 and the Allies have a full aviation regiment there, so this makes a third airbase in the region (joining Shikuka and Toyohara). With the Sikhalin Island bases secure, air raids against Japanese resources, heavy industry, and ports will be the focus of Allied offensive activities in NoPac for the remainder of the war. At present, most of the U.S. fleet carriers are stationed at Shikuka, but they will eventually depart for warmer waters. CenPac: I believe Iwo Jima is essentially impregnable at this point, and the Allies have resupplied the base. B-24s, PBY-Liberators, and B-17s are hitting targets in Japan on a revolving basis. This will be Iwo's primary role unless and until the Allies decide to strike the Philippines, Formosa, Okinawa, or the Home Islands. On 3/16, for instance, 130 4E bombers hit Osaka, hitting CA Suzuya 35 times and damaging a host of other ships including five or six ARs. Most emtpy transports used in the Iwo invasion back in '43 have now returned to Midway and are available for use in upcoming amphibious operations. The Allies will eventually strike in CenPac, though I'm not sure where and when. SoPac and SwPac: : There are lots of tempting targets down this way, but a lack of transports and combat ships has prevented me from undertaking large-scale amphibious operations. Eventually this too will change and the Allies will look toward Pago Pago, the Societies, Suva, Noumea, and other targets. Australia: The Aussie advance has been pretty slow, but the advance units will arrive a hex from Daly Waters tomorrow. The Aussie army is huge and mostly prepped for Darwin. Once the army reaches the good roads again, the advance should be rapid. I think John intends to evacuate his remaining units rather than putting up a fight for, say, Darwin. The Aussies have also just landed at Thursday Island and will take the vacant base tomorrow. Soon the Aussies will have to decide where they go next - Flores? Celebes? New Guinea? New Caledonia? The main factor will be availability of shipping and escort carriers. By summer, though, the Aussies should be mounting major amphibious operations. Sumatra/Malaya: This is the one area where the Allies have been on the offensive since late '43. The bases in western Sumatra should be secure with the possible exception of Padang. The Allied landing at Malacca has bogged down, but drew considerable Jap attention. The beachhead will hold, in my estimation, and eventually the Allies will take this hex. The landing at Johore Bahru will end in failure, but totally freaked out John and possibly factored into his decision to pull back troops in Vietnam. But the Brits have been quiet for a few weeks while regrouping, loading troops, and preparing for the next strike. This is about to occur. Meanwhile, a small army is moving on Raeheng (NW of Bangkok) while a stout army is moving out of Tavoy and will move down the Malay Peninsula to create another pressure point (along with Malacca, Johore Bahru, etc.). RAF forces have decimated Jap air in this region over the past days and weeks. Most imporantly, all the activity here drew John's full attention. He committed both the KB and all remaining battleships down here, leaving Sikhalin Island alone at a time where it was still pretty vulnerable due to lack of supplies. Vietnam: The Chinese successes here were totally unexpected, but have opened a new vector of attack. I did not expect Hanoi and Haiphong to fall, but they did. The Chinese still haven't vanquished the Jap defenders at Haiphong, but that will happen eventually, freeing up a large army. A smaller army moved south to Hue and attacked on March 14, achieving 1:1 odds and equal casualties of 1500 to 1500. Forts dropped from 6 to 5. But it looked like Hue would be a bump in the road that would take some days or weeks to overcome. To my surprise, John evacuated the base on the 15th and the city fell to the Chinese on the 16th. The troops are now prepping for Camrahn Bay. By summer I expect the Chinese to be threatening Saigon. Jap Shipping: The number of "safe" Jap ports is dwindling. Singapore is already within range of the RAF, but I haven't hit it yet due to distance and the need to hit other targets. But it won't be long before this port is shut down. None of the Home Island ports are safe any longer, but it will take me some time to convice John of this fact. That will leave him with just a few - Manila, Soerabaja, Palau, and Truk. What do the Japs do when there isn't any safe port for their ships? Points: John's lead is 11,300 and is falling slowly but steadily. I expect the pace to pick up considerably when the Allies initiate their next two major offensive and ramp up the B-29 raids in April.
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