RE: And now, back to the actual war....

RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (Full Version)

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Nemo121 -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/13/2009 8:32:42 PM)
Canoerebel --- Operationally leaving his ONE major means of escape largely unprotected is a pretty damned major error. In addition he has managed to reverse the historical Japanese error of dispersing his carriers strategically but then concentrating them too much tactically and operationally by concentrating them strategically but then dispersing them so much operationally that they weren't mutually supporting initially. Sorry but his play here has been poor on many levels. Daring, sure? But daringly jumping off a cliff without a parachute isn't something I'd applaud and neither am I going to pretend that the gaming equivalent of that is anything other than risible. Being daring doesn't excuse poor planning and execution IMO.

Canoerebel -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/13/2009 8:34:27 PM)
The Allies invaded Hokkaido in early December 1943; as things began to go awry, they cobbled together a force to also land at Sikhalin Island, which somehow succeeded and then held the base. The landings at Sikhalin were in mid-December 1943. It was winter, so John couldn't attack then. He could blockade, because my supplies were low and my supply line tenuous; then he could have invaded on March 1 when winter restrictions ended. He would've had a tough time, but he certainly had a chance and it was the only plan that made sense. Instead he sent the IJN to Malaya where he promptly lost Yamato and Musashi. He fixated on Sumatra/Malaya and months passed and I was able to get a big supply convoy to Sikhalin (with absolutely no interference from the IJN) and at that point I think Sikhalin became pretty secure - say March or April '44.

Nemo121 -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/13/2009 8:53:31 PM)
Just a point: Just because it was winter didn't mean he couldn't invade. It just made the cost in terms of losses while landing higher. IN the end thought not invading meant losing the game so it should have been obvious to him that ANY loss rate in landing was acceptable, no matter how high.

String -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/13/2009 9:04:17 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Nemo121 Just a point: Just because it was winter didn't mean he couldn't invade. It just made the cost in terms of losses while landing higher. IN the end thought not invading meant losing the game so it should have been obvious to him that ANY loss rate in landing was acceptable, no matter how high. The cold weather landing modifiers are pretty nasty in the game.

Canoerebel -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/13/2009 9:13:56 PM)
Yeah, John couldn't have invaded unless the base was vacant or essentially vacant. The weather modifer is absolutely catastrophic on invasions. He should've tried to impose a blockade and bomb as much as he could until weather cleared. So he would've had to wait 2.5 months, during which he could have prepped troops. He would've had a very hard time, but as we've all stated, it was about the only thing that made sense.

Nemo121 -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/13/2009 9:18:13 PM)
I've invaded and taken bases in the cold weather zone during winter many times as both Japanese and Allies. One trick is to use FT TFs for the invasion ( which seems to cut down on disablements ) and then just wait a couple of days before attacking which tends to allow quite a few disabled units to recover. Mainly though it isn't a case of it being impossible but merely a case of it costing more. Since it cost him the game not to counter-invade then ANY price was worth paying.

Canoerebel -> The Cat's Away (3/13/2009 11:18:05 PM)
11/10/44 A briefer update given the late hour in the day... India: Jap paratroops fragments took two Indian cities, including Hyderabad. I think both contingents are less than 100 strong. I hope so, because to Indian units were a hex from Hyderabad and are moving that way. In a few days I may take back that city (although these guys are actually meant for Bombay). Allied LBA continues to hammer away on merchant ships and scored six more hits on Hiei, setting her afire. Subs are also getting in a few licks. John's units are already dispersed badly and it's becoming increasingly clear that his force is far too weak to accomplish anything lasting (at least that's what my Intel guys is telling me). Carriers: The RN/USA combined force is at Malacca and on the way to Sabang. The American carrier TF made it through the straits north of Luzon without difficulty and are now in the South China Sea, two hexes west of Laog. They will refuel at Saigon and then make for Singapore. The American CVEs are returning to Iwo Jima. China: In the complete absence of any real opposition from Jap air or the IJN, the Allies are just throwing ships and men around with relative impunity. Pescadores fell to a shock attack. The small advance force at Foochow has held against two attacks. The Wenchow invasion force is gathering at Hong Kong and will sail in two or three days. The Jap garrison at Nanchang evicted three early arrivers, but the bulk of the Allied army begins arriving tomorrow. The Allies will have about 4,000 AV here. Points: (A) 80,724 (J) 57,728; Ratio: 1.40 to 1.

JeffroK -> RE: The Cat's Away (3/13/2009 11:33:32 PM)
How did you know to have troops at Hyderabad !!! Thought I'd get in early. [:'(] Maybe this needs to get past the gamey Police first, how about splitting up some high performance fightrs and split them around India to intercept the Para transports. They'll die but might put a dent in his plan, especially if only small numbers are landing. lasting (at least that's what my Intel guys is telling me). Never trust the Intel man, I know from experience [8D]

Canoerebel -> RE: The Cat's Away (3/13/2009 11:36:25 PM)
:) He may well wonder about those two units. For the record: both are District Brigades that had been at Diamond Harbor for at least six months or a year. The day the entire Jap Navy showed up of the coast of India, I set them to march to Bombay. There was another unit nearby, and I sent it to Karachi. I won't try the fighter gambit, although I think it's perfectly fine. Honestly, I think things are under control even though they are out of control at the moment. Makes sense, right?

Kereguelen -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/13/2009 11:53:23 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Nemo121 Historiker, no, once you capture Karachi the off-map supplies stop appearing. Only on-map supplies appear. The other benefit of taking Karachi or Bombay as a first thrust would be that the next thrust then could orient mainly south-eastward thus preventing dissipation of forces ( as occurred in the John3rd, QBall joint AAR when they landed at Vizgapatam and dissipated their effort into three equal thrusts ). At present it looks to me like he is in danger of dissipating the force of his landings significantly. I think Sakhalin fell even more recently than this... Perhaps within the last 6 months of game time... Do off-map supplies even appear at Karachi and Bombay in this mod? Or do they appear at Aden?

vettim89 -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/13/2009 11:55:21 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Kereguelen quote: ORIGINAL: Nemo121 Historiker, no, once you capture Karachi the off-map supplies stop appearing. Only on-map supplies appear. The other benefit of taking Karachi or Bombay as a first thrust would be that the next thrust then could orient mainly south-eastward thus preventing dissipation of forces ( as occurred in the John3rd, QBall joint AAR when they landed at Vizgapatam and dissipated their effort into three equal thrusts ). At present it looks to me like he is in danger of dissipating the force of his landings significantly. I think Sakhalin fell even more recently than this... Perhaps within the last 6 months of game time... Do off-map supplies even appear at Karachi and Bombay in this mod? Or do they appear at Aden? They do at Karachi. Bombay has HI there to produce supply but needs oil from Aden to work. So Karachi is the key city to hold as it likely has a large depot of both fuel and supply unless Dan has been pulling it out

Radio -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/14/2009 12:55:23 AM)
Having just reached the end/current event point of this AAR I'd like to say thanks for keeping us up to date with this amazing game. Also a question: You mentioned Columbo is heavily garrisoned. Are sufficent shipping and troops availdable to maybe counter land at Trivirandum (sp?) in a week or so if the main japanese forces move inland?

paullus99 -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/14/2009 1:30:46 AM)
I'm impressed with your calm demeanor. That alone will guarantee this action will spell the end of the IJN. His troops won't get too far in Indian before you bomb the crud out of them, they run out of supplies & melt away. His carriers only have one route back & with the US Carriers heading in that direction, it won't be pretty. And with the rest of the steamroller moving forward, it will end pretty quick.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/14/2009 3:47:48 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Nemo121 Bullwinkle, He missed the point of decision - Sakhalin - THAT was the point at which he should have risked all and risking all and losing all was justified. Agree, but so what? It's past. quote: Multiple smaller operational victories would yield greater strategic benefit in this situation. I believe ( and some might disagree ) that were I in John's position that I would be able to give the Allies quite a few bloody noses and by vigorous action aimed at their SLOCs and the bases along them starve the speartips of sufficient supplies so as to make the number of B-29s available a less than salient point. Nice strategy-ese, but where? With what units? How does he operate from the HI at all, with Iwo in the condition it is? He has no Singapore, Saigon, Marcus, or Hong Kong. He's undersupplied everywhere, like in the South, he could launch spoiling attacks from, and facing 70+ carriers. If you propose this, please be specific. WHERE and HOW does he disrupt SLOCs at this time? And, to my earlier point, what does this do to accomplish the objective of staying in the game? quote: B-29s without supplies don't threaten much of anything. As to why I think this... Well, I think the strategic dyscorrelation is more favourable to Japan in this game than it is to the Allies in my game vs Damian and there despite the fact that my navy and air force are completely outmatched ( Damian has at least 50% more first-line fighters on-map than me with equivalent experience levels ) I'm able to advance by playing to my strengths and maintaining a variation of tempo, direction and dys-synchronising enemy responses. I am certain the same could be done in this game to good effect. Look where the B-29s are. The ones up north are as secure in supply as my pantry. Dan has a SLOC through the Aleutians as secure as Ft. Knox. His supply convoys to Iwo are huge, and completely CV-escorted. Could Jap carriers play havoc with one (and likely only one) supply convoy into Iwo? Yes. But only if he could get them east of Iwo, and he can't. That ship has sailed. LeMay realized this too. He's getting ground into lunch meat every day by strat. bombing, and HE CAN'T STOP IT. I do agree with another post of yours. He should have gone for Bombay/Karachi on the initial strike. He might have taken AK/AP losses on the last two days, but it would have been worth it for the shipyard, supplies, and distance from Singapore and Ceylon. And he would have had a better road network to jump onto. Reading both AARs, I better stop there.

Canoerebel -> RE: And now, back to the actual war.... (3/14/2009 8:45:26 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: RabidGibbon Having just reached the end/current event point of this AAR I'd like to say thanks for keeping us up to date with this amazing game. Also a question: You mentioned Columbo is heavily garrisoned. Are sufficent shipping and troops availdable to maybe counter land at Trivirandum (sp?) in a week or so if the main japanese forces move inland? Good idea, but I'm not willing to do this, at least not yet. 1. Ceylon is my bastion. I'm still unsure exactly what John has out there, although my worries about there being a second wave are slowly eroding as time passes. However, I don't want to take any chances with Ceylon's security. Were I to make a mistake and lose the island, my position would deteriorate badly. 2. Ceylon is strongly defended, but not "over-defended." I have enough to feel secure (500 AV Colombo, 150 Trincomalee, 9 forts both) to feel safe, but not to feel like I can subtract units to send them elsewhere. Or perhaps it's better to say that I don't feel like I can spare enough to make a real difference anywhere right now. 3. I have already considered moving some air transport to Trincomalee and using it to fly some reinforcements to Madras. I haven't, yet, for the reasons mentioned above and because all of my transports in theater are currently involved in the massive airlift from Singapore to Victoria Point to Akyab to Cuttack, and a second, smaller lift from Bangkok to Akyab. Fresh transports have now reached Rangoon (after coming from Amoy, before that Iwo, before the the Kuriles, before that the Aleutians, before that Canada, etc.). 4. So I will have much more airlift capacity in short order and can employ a lift from Ceylon if and when I feel "secure" enough to do so. 5. I will eventually land at Trivandru, Pangim, Mangalore, or some other base in his rear, but I don't have the troops or ships to do that for awhile. 6. First I'll focus on securing Bombay, Karachi, and Calcutta; bombing Jap ships and troops, and deciding when and if I want to take on the KB. 7. By the time John can conceivably threaten any of my three major cities, Bombay and Karachi will have at least 300 AV apiece (and they are urban hexes with nine forts, and if he should concentrate his force enough to go after one seriously, by then I should be able to air transport in reinforcements), and the Calcutta area already has the Brit 251st Brigade and American 475th RCT, with two large Indian divisions on the way (air-transported fragments are already in place, with lots more to follow in the coming days).

Canoerebel -> Where Fighting Soldiers Go to Die (3/14/2009 12:17:45 PM)
11/11/44 Paratroops in India: Very small contingents of Jap paratroops took unoccupied Viz today (and unoccupied Nagpur and Hyderabad yesterday) [See map to follow in next post]. Two comparatively large Indian units will arrive at Nagpur tomorrow and should easily evict the enemy. An element of 475 U.S. RCT will advance from Cuttack to Viz to take care of that base. Today, John reconned a vacant Lucknow in preparation (I believe) to para-assault tomorrow. However, an Indian unit will also arrive tomorrow. This will, I hope, be the first of many setbacks for the Jap army units in India. Aircraft in India: John has pulled as many ships as possible (including all carriers and combat ships) back to the Addu Atoll area and out of range of LBA. He still has several hundred transports at Trivandrum (including 153 sighted in port), and they continue to get chewed up by LBA. Some Allied LBA will now change to port strike, airfield strike, and ground strike missions, especially those at bases further to the rear and thus entirely out of range of the Jap ships near Addu. John has a few fighters at Trivandrum but they have been useless. The Allies have P-47Ds and P-38Ls in theater, now, so we believe Jap fighters will remain useless. Ships in India: John is aware of the current position of the American carriers (set to refuel at Saigon day after tomorrow), and has adequate time to flee home if he wishes, though then he abandons his army in India. More likely he will concentrate his forces for a big naval engagement (more about that later). The smaller Brit/US carrier force will arrive at Sabang (western tip of Sumatra) tonight. I'm not sure John has sighted this force since it left Singapore, but he'll be concerned about its whereabouts. I will not risk this smaller force unless John's carriers remain dispersed or unless I can remain within range of LRCAP. But this carrier force is quite potent: US CVs Bennington and Ticonderoga; RN CVs Victorious, Indefatigable, Illustrious, Indomitable, and Formidable; RN CVL Hermes; RN CVEs Battler, Begum, and Shah. These carriers can put up a rather stout number of quality aircraft: (A) American Ships: 80 Hellcat, 62 Helldiver, 36 TBM; (B) British Ships: 114 Corsair, 58 Hellcat, 101 Avenger, 12 Firefly, 12 Barracuda. Say 250 top-quality fighters, 74 bombers, and 150 torpedo planes. The American carrier force nearing Saigon has 10 fleet carriers and 8 CVLs that can put up about 450 fighters, 200 dive bombers, and 250 torpedo planes. Reinforcements: The airlift continues, a few small transport TFs have arrived at Singapore and since departed for Diamond Harbor, and a large transport TF will arrive at Singapore tomorrow. The Allies are sure they can put enough troops on the ground in India quickly enough to prevent any risk to Calcutta/Diamond Harbor/Dacca; the Allies remain confident that they have time to reinforce Karachi adequately (primarily due to the great distance that key city is from the Japs); and the Allies are concerned, but not yet worried, about Bombay. China: The troops set to invade Wenchow are leaving Hong Kong tonight; the troops marching overland from Amoy to adjacent Foochow should arrive in two or three days. Operation Shooting Star: The offensive in China has not only exceeded all expectations, but has done so more quickly than I had anticipated taking even my first objectives. The string of bases captured to this point: Hianan Island (and its two cities); Canton, Hong Kong, Swatow, Amoy, Ichang, Pescadores, and Batan Island. Next on the agenda: Foochow and Wenchow. The army besieging Nanchang will be about 4,000 AV strong with 1400 arriving there today and the rest to follow over the next days. Operation Neptune (Invasion of Formosa): There were two conditions to undertaking this operation: (1) The Allies needed big airbases in close proximity to provide LRCAP - these are now secure in Pescadores and Amoy; and (2) Arrival of the reinforcements, supplies, and fuel from Midway - these ships are now halfway to Iwo and should arrive within a week. Operation Neptune is on. The troops are rested and 100% prepped for Takao. This will include: two Marine divisions (4th and 6th), four infantry divisions (38, 31, 98, 81), two RCT, 1 combat engineer, 7 artillery, 3 armor, 2 HQ, 2 Amphibious Force HQ, base forces, and engineers. Total AV should near 3,000. The Allies have accumulate a large number of LSTs and other landing craft, so this force should get ashore quickly. Protection will be provided by something like 36 CVEs, 2 CVs, and combat ships including at least 5 BBs. Japan: Major raid for Tokyo on tomorrow, weather permitting. SWPac: Part of Fiji Brigade has arrived at Suva, which seems to be occupied by two Jap units of undetermined type and strength, but believe to be weak. The Allies will try a probing bombardment tonight. Allied Evaluation of Japanese End Game Plan: The Allies believe that the purpose of the Japanese invasion of India is to provoke a strong Allied response including commitment of the Allied fleet carriers; that Japan understands that the war is lost and wishes to end the war with a glorious naval battle; that Japan is prepared (and even expects) to lose this battle, but believes that its "Banzai" nature will preserve Japanese honor; that the Japanese military believes this course of action will keep the morale of the Japanese government and people strong and thus prepare to quickly rebuild militarily. The Allies are aware that the Japanese may have denuded their carriers of dive bombers and replaced them with torpedo bombers; that in the absence of the American CVEs, there is greater risk that meeting the Japanese carriers in the open ocean carries at least a risk of defeat and guarantees that the primary Japanese objective (to die in glorious battle) will be achieved. The Allies further believe it is preferable to avoid taking risks unless absolutely necessary to protect India; or in the event an opportunity arises to meet the IJN on terms known to be favorable to the Allies. Finally, the Allies believe that it is better for the post-war world community for Japan to emerge from the war shaken and shamed rather than defeated but proud and resolved. Therefore, the Allies wish to avoid the kind of engagement the Japanese seek - a major carrier clash between "equals' (or as near equal as the Japs can hope for at this late date) in the open ocean. At this time, therefore, the Allies will use their carriers conservatively and under the protection of LBA. It is expected that this will put the Japs in a difficult position - what do they do with their carriers IF the Allies won't come out and fight? The Japs can't afford to withdraw, and yet they can't afford to keep there carriers in the Bay of Bengal indefinately while the Japanese Empire is under direct assault. Once the Allies have adequate base forces in place to provide cover for ships, they can move combat ships into the area, under protection of Ceylon's LBA (this part is already in place), and hit Trivandrum and any Japanese base on India's east coast. India Map to Follow.

Canoerebel -> Map of India, Nov. 11, 1944 (3/14/2009 12:25:56 PM)
The situation in India, November 11, 1944: [image]local://upfiles/8143/40C371AF3E3B479D951187BBF0FD4AB1.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> Jumpin' Jehosavat! (3/14/2009 6:33:59 PM)
Compare the Allied unit one hex from Lucknow in the prior map with where that unit is now... The Jap paratroops scared it two hexes backwards! The unit was 30 miles into the last leg of its trip to Lucknow. It should have arrived at the same time as the paratroops and whipped them handily. Now it has to make up three hexes and that puts it that much further from Karachi. I hope this little glitch doesn't come back to haunt me (it shouldn't, the Japs are a long, long way from Karachi). John is using detachments of 90 paratroops to capture cities 1,500 miles (or something like that) from his airbase. But it's my fault as the bases weren't garrisoned. [image]local://upfiles/8143/13EE17C332D64429A9E90F82AE88D455.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> Jumpin' Jehosavat! (3/14/2009 6:49:51 PM)
11/12/44 Jap Paratroops: Took Bangalore and Lucknow today (see preceding map for irritating bug that made my unit jump backwards two hexes rather than move into Lucknow as expected). The Japs scared the stuffin' out of them. The two Allied units expected to arrive at Nagpur did so, and I expect them to evict that Jap paratroop contingent tomorrow. India at Sea: Alot more naval search hits, but Colombo was socked in so few if any naval strike missions flew. Some bombers hit ground and airfield targets. The combined Brit/US CVs arrived near Sabang, but I'm sending a destroyer into port first to check for mines. I'm also considering moving the CVs along the coastline to Rangoon. A Jap sub sighted a Helldiver (or vice-versa) so John knows carriers are present. His carriers have pulled back out of sight and I'm sure they are consolidating in preparation for a big clash. The American carriers are two hexes from Saigon; I had intended to send them straight to Singapore, but a Jap sub layed some mines there today. I need to sweep before risking my carriers there. A mine damaged an AP. Reinforcements: A big transport convoy arrived at Singapore and began loading troops. The Allies probably have 300 AV at Diamond Harbor and vicinity now, with another 500 at Akyab awaiting transport. The air transport system is working smoothly, and ships have loaded or are loading more units to transport to DH. Question: What happens if the Allied CVs and combat ships stay close to shore in the Bay of Bengal, then utilize the cover provided by Ceylon's big airfields, and then hammer whatever is at Trivandrum? What happens if John's best port is blockaded? He'll have others, but they be more remote. I like this plan. China: D-Day for the invasion of Wenchow (a big coastal city between Foochow and Shanghai) is November 14. 2,000 AV have now arrived at Nanchang with 2,000 more to come. Operation Neptune: The reinforcement/supply/fuel ships are as close as 780 miles from Iwo, so today the transports at Iwo Jima began loading. I had enough LSTs and other amphibious ships to load two Marine divisions, two Army divisions, and a RCT; enough LSTs will arrive in a few days to load another Army division. That will leave one division and one RCT for APs. The invasion force will also bring reinforcements to Batan Island (including a CD) and to Pescadores (a 90-base force). The Home Islands are about to be severed from the rest of the Empire, including the KB. Japan: The fighters flew there sweep over Tokyo wiping out all of the CAP (about 25 Jap fighters), but the Shikuka B-29s failed to fly. Score: (A) 80,991 (J) 57,835; Ratio: 1.40 to 1

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Jumpin' Jehosavat! (3/14/2009 7:13:37 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Compare the Allied unit one hex from Lucknow in the prior map with where that unit is now... The Jap paratroops scared it two hexes backwards! Wow. I had no idea the game engine even allowed this to happen.

Prydwen -> RE: Jumpin' Jehosavat! (3/14/2009 7:32:29 PM)
Just curious if your troops destination was Lucknow or someplace farther down the road? If the latter then I imagine what happened was he took Lucknow and the AI decided it had to send your troops on a different path due to the change of control for the Lucknow hex. ~IAM

Canoerebel -> RE: Jumpin' Jehosavat! (3/14/2009 8:06:34 PM)
You're right! The unit was set to move to Karachi, so the fall of Lucknow made it look for a new route free of an enemy unit (drat it). But I wonder how the unit move two hexes in just one turn? I thought they took one look at the enemy and messed in their britches.

Prydwen -> RE: Jumpin' Jehosavat! (3/14/2009 8:23:26 PM)
Was it a tank unit? I think I've seen them move 2 hexes on a railroad in one turn before. ~IAM

Canoerebel -> American Carriers at Saigon (3/15/2009 7:05:28 PM)
11/13/44 Madhouse, it's an infantry unit, one of those District Brigades. A good day for the Allies: Japan: 198 4EB from Toyohara and 200 B-29s from Shikuka hit Tokyo; there was no fighter CAP and the damage was extensive to resources and heavy industry. Operation Neptune/Shooting Star: The Allied fleet heading toward Wenchow underwent at least six big attacks and as many smaller attacks from Jap LBA on Formosa and Okinawa. The Japs lost 131 aircraft in A2A fighting and scored single TT hits on BB Queen Elizabeth and CA Suffolk; the BB suffered light damage, Suffolk moderate; both will return to Hong Kong and should be ready to sail again soon. I've ordered my invasion fleet to "hover" in the Formosa straights tomorrow in hopes of drawing more air attacks. The Allies just air transported a base force to Pescadores and moved in P-47Ds and P-38Ls from Iwo Jima, so the CAP will be a good bit stronger. I would love to bleed some Jap LBA before the Formosa invasion force arrives in ten days or so. Also, it seems that the Allies may have picked off the last of the freebies in China for awhile; I may recall the Wenchow invasion and concentrate on first taking Foochow. This will give me another airfield closer to Wuchow from which to then cover that invasion. The Allies also want to concentrate on the Siege of Nanchang. India: This has been a wild game with a course of events dramatically different from "history." One of the strangest among many strange turns is the American carriers sailing between Jap-held Luzon and Formosa, not undergoing attack, and then refueling at Saigon. The carriers will next head to Singapore, pick up more fuel, and then proceed carefully toward the IO. Meantime, the Jap para-assaults continue, but the Allies reclaimed Nagpur, so those two Indian units can now head on to Bombay. The Allied reinforcement pipeland continues to function well. Allied bombers scored more "search hits," but also had several big naval strikes against shipping at Trivandrum. SWPAC: Suva could fall to the Allies day after tomorrow. Score: (A) 81,619 (J) 57,839; Ratio: 1.41 to 1; Strategic Points: 15,384

Canoerebel -> RE: American Carriers at Saigon (3/15/2009 8:31:16 PM)
11/14/44 Operation Neptune: The effort to use the Shooting Star combat and amphibious TFs as a magnet to draw Jap bombers in order to attrition them worked well, though not without cost. Again, Jap bombers sortied in big numbers and managed to put about two TTs into BB Valiant. The Japs lost 276 aircraft in A2A. Over two turns, the RN has seen BB Queen Elizabeth take light damage (11 SYS), BB Valiant take moderately heavy damage (she'll end up with about 60 SYS) and CA Suffolk take moderate damage (about 35 SYS) in return for downing over 400 Japanese aircraft. Aircraft Losses: Over the past two days, the Japs have lost a total of 616 aircraft, the Allies 87. I hope this seriously affects the Jap pilot quality by the time Operation Neptune kicks off. Operation Neptune: The reinforcement/supply/fuel TFs from Midway will arrive at Iwo over the next two to four days. These TFs include alot more LSTs. The Allies will load two more Army divisions at Iwo, and then the Neptune ships will depart for Formosa. India: John is suddenly pulling out most ships from Trivandrum - something like 150 - and they got pasted on their way out, both by naval search and naval strike missions. Subs near Addu Atoll claimed a few transports (and one sub went down). Either intentionally or accidentally John used 17 paratroops to "assault" the two units at Nagpur, freezing them so that they failed to move toward Bombay. That might have been an accident, but we'll see tomorrow. I've reset those troops to head for Bombay; if John drops another little unit I'll know he's freezing movement on purpose. The Allies are spreading around some small contingents (AV 50 or so) to various bases to prevent para-assault. Over the next ten days, a heck of alot of troops will arrive in Diamond Harbor and vicinity, with more to follow. The American carriers will arrive at Singapore the day after tomorrow. Score: (A) 82,095 to 58,070; Ratio: 1.41 to 1.

Canoerebel -> American Carriers at Singapore (3/16/2009 2:51:36 AM)
11/15/44 and 11/16/44 India on the Ground: Jap units are spread out all over the bottom 1/5th of India, almost as though John was intentionally scattering them to create the most possible "noise." He has taken alot of bases and should soon have Pangim (west coast) and Madras (east coast). Allied reinforcemnts are about where they need to be, so John's "expansionism" won't continue forever. India in the Air: Bombers continue to savage Jap shipping at Trivandrum and off the coast. John's taken fearful transport losses, but I'm sure he has plenty. Allied bombers have also hit Trivandrum's arfield hard. The Japs haven't tried any para-assaults the past two days, so perhaps the airfield is closed. India at Sea: The Jap combat ships have moved out of sight. I don't know whether he's just moved them to the south edge (and east of Addu Atoll) in preparation for a naval battle, or if instead he's sprinting back across that edge toward Java and safety. If it's the latter, though, he's totally abandoned India and hasn't accomplished anything worthwhile (to my way of thinking, at least). The American carriers arrived at Singapore on the 16th and fully refueled. They'll move up the Malacca Straits with the second carrier group (RN and US) and then I'll decide where to go from there. Current thinking is to hug the coast and eventually make for the safety of Ceylon where the Allies can impose a blockade on India. This strategy may infuriate John, who I think is itching for the final showdown, but I'm satisfied with the way things are both here and elsewhere, so I don't feel the need to take even a slight risk of losing a carrier battle. Operation Shooting Star: Foochow fell to the Allies on the 15th. Now the Allies are returning to Hong Kong to unload troops and re-prep them (most of these guys were prepped for Pescadores even though they were going to Wenchow, but when Pesca fell early and easy I was going to make other uses of them). I have lots of troops prepping for Wenchow (which John just reinforced to four units) and Naigpo (which only has one unit at this point) at Hong Kong, Swatow, and Amoy. The Allies should be able to try their first attack at Nanchang within the week. The Japs have about 7 divisions here, so this may be a tough nut to crack. Operation Neptune: Many TFs already loaded and waiting at Iwo are moving a little out of port tonight to begin organizing - I need to keep straight which TFs will hit the beaches at Formosa, which will stand offshore (ships carrying base forces, extra supplies, etc.), and those carrying men or supplies to Batan Island or Pescadores. It will be a few more days before the extra LSTs arrive to load the last two divisions involved in the invasion, then this vast armada will weigh anchor and head west. I think this invasion fleet will sail from Iwo in four days with D-Day perhaps in 12 days. Japan: Concerted and very effective fighter sweep/bombing run against Gumma on the 16th. The sweep took out 60 Jap fighters at a cost of 7 P-47Ds. The bombers focues on airfield, heavy industry, some kind of aircraft engine, and a few aircraft factories. To my eye, Gumma looks pretty much bombed out of commission. What's left haven't been priority items. Aircraft Losses: Over these two days, the Japs lost 195 and the Allies 34. Strategic Situation: I'm still not positive of John's strength in India, nor exactly what he expected to accomplish. I feel reasonably sure the Allies can handle the situation. The invasion of Formosa will be difficult as the island is well-defended, but I feel like getting those troops ashore may be a nail in the coffin for Jap hopes. There's no question that the Allies will eventually prevail if they get to the beaches in decent shape (and that should happen since there are plenty of Allied airbases nearby now). The Empire will be well and truly split, which Japan isolated from the DEI and from the KB. If the Allies are also able to empose a blockade on India and stop the Jap drive, what hope is there left for the Japs? John may continue seeking that carrier battle in the open seas, but at this point I don't think the Allies need to give him the chance. Points: (A) 83,004 (J) 58,114; Ratio: 1.43 to 1; Strategic Points: 15,758

Canoerebel -> Operation Shooting Star Complete (3/16/2009 4:07:50 PM)
11/17/44 Carriers: An Allied sub got thwacked by a strong DD force near map edge south of Sumatra. I "think" this marks the location of the KB; if so, the Jap carriers have either taken station for a big clash, or are in position to escape back to Java. If they are heading to Java, there is a slight chance they could make fast enough time to interfere with the Allied invasion of Formosa, which troubles me a bit (see Operation Neptune below). The combined American/British carrier TFs are in the Malacca Straits approaching Georgetown and can't catch the Japs if they are fleeing. For a few days I want to keep these ships close enough to Singapore to be in position to sprint to Formosa if needed (unlikely, but nonetheless...). Once I feel that Neptune is absolutely secure, the US/RN carriers will proceed to Ceylon. India on Land: Even as Jap units spread out across southern India causing mayhem, Allied reinforcements pour into northeaster India. The Allies booted the Jap paratroop unit from Lucknow and should do the same at Viz tomorrow; there is 475 AV at Cuttack with some big troops beginning to arrive at Diamond Harbor. The reinforcements to Bombay and Karachi are on schedule to make those bases before any conceivable threat could arrive. I am still evaluating the land threat to India and am somewhat concerned, but there is a growing feeling that this is inded a pretty weak Japanese force; well, weak considering what John would need to really threaten the major Allied bases or to pose a long term threat of being able to hold a good part of India. Had John been able to interdict the reinfrocement pipiline to Diamond Harbor, I'd have been much more worried. India in the Air: John has apparently abandoned Trivandrum due to damage to its airfield and moved his operations to Mangalore, so Allied bombers will target that field tomorrow. Allied LBA clobbered alot more Jap ships today. For several days now Allied airfields in theater have been filled to capacity, so I've concentrated on building reserves at Rangoon and Camranh Bay. The USA/Canada/Aleutians/Kuriles/Bonins/Batan Island/China pipeline is tapering off now, but it served well. The Allies were fortunate that Erorufu in the western Kuriles became a level one airbase about a month ago, because Helldivers and aircraft of similar range can make the jump from there to Tori Shima and then on to Batan Island. India at Sea: The Allies received a bunch of RN DDs at Aden on the 15th, and they are making for Karachi. To this point, Allied combat ships haven't been involved in the defense of India (except BB Ramilles, which got sunk during the opening move of the surprise attack, and BC Repulse, which was damaged). Operation Neptune: In light of the "slight" concern that Jap carriers could intervene, the Allies have begun loading all remaining troops and expect the invasion fleet to move out day after tomorrow. Protection will be provided by 45 CVEs and two CVs, plus a stout number of combat ships including at least five BBs. The Allies have so many ships available at Iwo that they're taking empty transports to contribute to the Chinese/British operations along the Chinese coast: about 12 7.2k AKs and about 10 big APs. Operation Shooting Star: With the fall of Foochow, Operation Shooting Star has come to and end with great success. The Allies took more than I envisioned, much quicker and much more easier than I had anticapted (in part because the Allies could move with relative freedom when the KB clear out and went to India). In addition to Foochow, the Allies took Ichang, Amoy, Swatow, Hong Kong, Canton, Batan Island, Pescadores, Samah, and Kiangshan. The Allies are in position to continue, but henceforth the offensive in China will come under the Operation Uranus designation. Operation Uranus: This will be the combine land/sea campaign to lay siege to Shanghai. By land, the Allies must first take Nanchang; by sea, the Allies will try to take Ningpo and Wenchow.

paullus99 -> RE: Operation Shooting Star Complete (3/16/2009 4:47:27 PM)
Where do you think his primary anchorage is going to be? Obviously, someplace where he can get fuel & covered by LBA (at least in harbor). Might be worth starting to hit those locations as quickly as possible - cut off his logistical tail first.

Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Shooting Star Complete (3/16/2009 5:28:19 PM)
If his carriers remain in the IO, he has fuel at Trivandrum (but he's afraid to go there because of Allied LBA); he may hope to draw fuel to Mangalore, but he'll have the same problem there. If he returns to Java, Soerabaja is about the only port he can count on. If he's running low on fuel, or if he's abandoning India, this is my guess as to where he's headed. I can't project enough air power to pose a serious threat to Soerabaja right now. I was just about to send my carriers to the hex off the point of Sumatra, under cover of LBA from Sabang, when I double-checked the readiness of the carrier fighters and found that some are as much as 1/4th disabled right now; so I'm sending my carriers back to Singapore for now. That will allow them to get everything ship-shape, and also put them in a position to lend a hand at Formosa should that be necessary. They're also fairly close to India should a crisis arise. I think things are about to come to a head. The Allies are about to move on Formosa; the Allies in China are in position now to embark on ships to hit coastal China again (as soon as those reinforcement ships arrive from Iwo); and I think India is going to be fine. I'm hoping the dire situation forces John to make a mistake.

Canoerebel -> Operation Uranus (3/16/2009 5:40:26 PM)
11/18/44 India: More mangling of Jap transports at Trivandrum, Mangalore, and vicinity. A detachment of American infantry recaptured Viz. At the moment, John seems to be moving more in the center than towards Pangim and Madras, which suits me. Both of those bases are lightly held and are his for the asking, but I'll stay and use the airfields as long as possible. The Bombay reinforcements are just a day or two out, so I feel much better about that city. There is no longer any question about the security of Calcutta and vicinity. I have begun prepping a unit to retake Trivandrum, which is now held by just a solitary Jap unit. It'll be awhile before I would pursue this, however, and I wouldn't be suprised if the war was over before then. China: Troops positioned at Hong Kong, Swatow, Amoy, and Foochow are prepping for Ningpo and Wenchow. There are so many that I'll await the additional transports now on the way from Iwo. John is reinforcing these coastal cities, but I don't think he can stand against the massive size of the armies coming that way. On the land-side, the first attack on Nanchang will take place in a day or two; Allied bombers are now focusing their efforts on this city, and have been for three or four days. Operation Neptune: Half of the carriers leave Iwo tonight; the other half must wait until tomorrow so that they can refuel (TKs are unloading fuel but the reserves were sucked dry today). D-Day Formosa should be just seven to ten days off. SWPac: The Allies will try a deliberate attack at Suva tomorrow; the garrison is weak but protected by 9 forts and my guys are 100% prepped for Nandi rather than Suva. Points: (A) 83,308 (J) 58,010; Ratio: 1.43 to 1

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