RE: China/Formosa Map on 12/23/44 (Full Version)

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vettim89 -> RE: China/Formosa Map on 12/23/44 (4/6/2009 9:36:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

How in the world can I bounce him?  John still has alot of bases he can run to.  Say he hits Midway and loses 150 fighters.  Then, of course, I'd love to tangle with the KB, but while my carriers sortie from Formosa or Iwo (wherever they happen to be at the time), John can play cat-and-mouse and move the KB south to Tarawa or north to the HI, or to a bunch of bases in between.  I go off on a wild goose chase with little chance of catching him (the KB is faster).  Meanwhile, plans that would've benefited from the presence of my carriers have to wait.




Who knows. Purely conjectural. Do you have any high EXP LBA at say Enitewok or Wake or Midway. If so you might get a 2000 lb hit or two. Even a few well place 500 lb bombs might create a cripple. What about subs? Any in position to interfere. I think you misunderstood me. I did not mean that you should go off chasing KB. I just meant opportunity favors those who are prepared. Unlikely with UBER CAP that any IJN CV might get hit, but are you ready if one or two does? If John suddenly has a bunch of cripples to nurse, he will either have to abandon them (which is what he likely do) or slow way down to protect them.

One of the 7 Habits of Highly Successful People is to proact not react. There is a lot you could be doing right now to be prepared to make KB's life difficult



Canoerebel -> RE: China/Formosa Map on 12/23/44 (4/6/2009 9:40:48 PM)

I'm fairly prepared at each base, though there's a chance the KB can overwhelm stiff CAP merely by weight of numbers.  But John will get a bloody nose if he hits Midway, Wake, or Eniwetok, so we'll see what happens.

Lots of subs are in patroling the area.

John suffered some damage to his carriers (and lost a CVE) during the India campaign, so I "think" he'll be nervous about approaching any place that has LBA.

To tell you the truth, I can really figure out what John might do with his carriers.  For a year now he should've employed them in a "Banzaii! offensive charge" to save the Empire, but he refuses to do so.  Even when I stick my neck out a bit (like the sortie down toward the Solomons about three months ago) he refuses to engage.



JeffroK -> RE: China/Formosa Map on 12/23/44 (4/6/2009 10:07:53 PM)

I would have my carriers at Iwo, there they at least threaten some of his return tracks. At Takao they dont threten KB at all.

I would start smashing his likely return bases, Marcus, Saipan etc so that he maybe makes a rash move to get to a better base.

I am not playing the game, make your choices and go for it.

(Warning, an amphib into an Urban hex will just see your troops tied up forever)

IMHO, destroying KB ends the game, taking Shanghai merely garners points and another bomber base. I would still recommend taking all of Taiwan before Shanghai.

Why arent your CV repairing faster, should some go the HK (If the mod has repair pts there) have you got any spare AR?



Canoerebel -> RE: China/Formosa Map on 12/23/44 (4/6/2009 10:48:22 PM)

My CVs are repairing fine at HK, it's just that they had been at sea for about six months without a break - enough to push SYS damage pretty high; too, many of these carriers were due for upgrades from mid-43, so it's going to take awhile.

I've had my carriers based at Iwo for long stretches.  I prefer Takao (I think) as it sits astride the Jap sea lanes between the HI, PI, and DEI, and also permits them to assist in land operations where desired.

I'm not actually thinking of landing at Shanghai...I running a bit of a bluff here - what I may do is run my transports right up next to Shanghai to see if it prompts John to panic and pull troops back from Hangchow.  Whether he does or not, though, my troops will land at Ningpo.

It's not possible to swap missions at a moment's notice.  Several American divisions are 80% prepped for Shanghai and Shanghai is at least as beneficial as either of the other two bases on Formosa.  So they'll go to China for now.

No doubt destruction of the KB will end the game; but it's up to John as to when the KB is committed.  I'm trying to apply as much pressure near Japan as possible, but thus far he's refused to fight - primarily due to the threat of Allied LBA in conjunction with Allied fighters.



vettim89 -> RE: China/Formosa Map on 12/23/44 (4/6/2009 10:48:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm fairly prepared at each base, though there's a chance the KB can overwhelm stiff CAP merely by weight of numbers.  But John will get a bloody nose if he hits Midway, Wake, or Eniwetok, so we'll see what happens.

Lots of subs are in patroling the area.

John suffered some damage to his carriers (and lost a CVE) during the India campaign, so I "think" he'll be nervous about approaching any place that has LBA.

To tell you the truth, I can really figure out what John might do with his carriers.  For a year now he should've employed them in a "Banzaii! offensive charge" to save the Empire, but he refuses to do so.  Even when I stick my neck out a bit (like the sortie down toward the Solomons about three months ago) he refuses to engage.


I cannot agree more. I think he kept thinking that if he was patient that he would be able to sprint them in some where, do a lot of damage, then sprint back out before you could react. You have not afforded him that opportunity. Now he has this massive force that might be able to do some real damage but will not/cannot use it. I think he has become so obsessed with preserving KB that he won't risk it. Perhaps he is correct in that assement. If KB was lost or even badly damaged at this point, the game would be over. Even if you had a near equal exchange of carriers with several cripples, he would lose. You have many places to send your cripples. He has Sorobaeja.

Perhaps the best thing he could do with KB is what he is doing. Prowl the seas to make you worry about where it is or where it is going but refusing all battles that are not of John's choosing.



witpqs -> RE: China/Formosa Map on 12/23/44 (4/6/2009 11:32:20 PM)

Regarding amphib into Shanghai, would that stop his troops from retreating into Shanghai once you bust through the outer perimeter? If so, it might be worth it if you think you can smash the perimeter fairly soon - just land at Shanghai to form an anvil but don't bother attacking. Food for thought.



paullus99 -> RE: China/Formosa Map on 12/23/44 (4/7/2009 10:37:36 AM)

Your comments about SYS damage bring up another good point - John's sprints back and forth have got to be adding up. Even if he was fully repaired for the Indian Adventure, it seems like he's been on the move ever since. There are probably only one or two ports left where he can make decent repairs - just keep your eyes open.



Canoerebel -> All is calm, all is bright.... (4/8/2009 3:46:04 PM)

12/23/44 to 12/26/44
 
Christmas has come and gone in one of the quietest spells our game has seen in a long time.  But the calm won't last forever.

China:  The big army moving toward Hangchow and Shanghai will arrive at the former in two days.  The reinforcements for Shanghai leave Iwo Jima tonight under escort by the RN/USN carrier TF (which arrived at Iwo unmolested except that CV Formidable hit a mine with little damage; she's ready to sail with 16 SYS).  This reinforcement convoy will head toward Formosa and meet a second large convoy coming out from Hong Kong carrying more reinforcements.  At this time, the Allies aren't sure whether they'll invade a port city north of Shanghai (I'm monitoring activity there to see if John is reinforcing or just landing troops there that move on toward the front lines); invade Shanghai (unlikely, but I may bluff it just to see if I can "skeer" John into reacting), or landing reinforcements at Ningpo.  The Allies tried a deliberate attack at Sinyang on the 26th; it came off at 1:1, dropped forts to 8, and cost the Japs 2x casualties.  A small crack in the dike, but John may be able to plug it by shifting troops around.

Formosa:  The Americans are resting before moving north.

Japan:  Big raid scheduled for Nagoya's Frank factories, but only the sweep came through.  The P-47Ds knocked down 43 fighters at a cost of 14.  I'll try again tomorrow.

India:  Like marbles rolling around in an empty metal bucket. The Allies continue to press in on the Jap perimeter.  It looks like the Japs will soon be confined to Poona, a large army at Bombay (which remains in Allied hands), and some units moving north and northeast on.  Allied units are closing in from all directions and I hope to have all roads blockaded soon.



Canoerebel -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/8/2009 10:20:44 PM)

12/27/44 and 12/28/44
 
China:  The Allied army has arrived at Hangchow 4,500 AV strong and will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.  I think in raw numbers the Allies outnumber the Japs 2:1, have an advantage on preparation, and I doubt the Japs had a chance to build many forts at this post.  The question is - do the Japs have enough to stop a big army?  If so, then I'll have to lay siege.  If not, the Allies should take the hex shortly and then move on Shanghai.  The two reinforcement convoys (one left Iwo Jima, the other left Hong Kong) are to rendezvous east of Formosa in two or three days, stop off at Myoku Island to drop off some reinforcements for that post, and then proceed to the China coast.

Oil:  115 B-29s from Singapore hit Balikpan's oil, scoring 52 hits.  The Japs don't have any significant oil producing bases left - Palembang is a shambles and Balik is about 50% now.  That leaves Tarakan, Batavia, Soerabaja, Mili, and Brunei, none of which are large producers.

Japan:  The big raid at Nagoya made it on the second try, doing this to the four Frank factories:  59 (30); 6 (25); 38 (0); and 22 (11).  I'm going to try again tomorrow.

India:  The Allies reclaimed Hyderabad and a unit is on on the way to a vacant Pangim.  The cordon continues to tighten around the Jap army, which should be low on supplies now and thus unable to fight well.

KB:  Absolutely no sign of it.  I had expected a raid on Midway, Wake, or Eniwetok.  If none is forthcoming in the next few days, I'll begin to worry about the sea lanes to the West Coast.  I've already begun diverting traffic to try to keep the area clear.

Points:  (A) 90,978 (J) 58,130; Ratio:  1.56 to 1; Strategic Points:  18,354



Canoerebel -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/9/2009 8:58:44 PM)

John has requested yet another do over turn, which I've declined.

This request came about when 283 Frances torpedo bombers sortied from Marcus Island against shipping at Eniwetok.  The Japs lost 263 and scored just one hit, that on an AS.  After John ran the turn, he sent me an email that didn't even mention that attack, but did refer to the many other Allied attacks during this turn: 

"Darned felt like I was repeating this turn!  :>  You know...5,000,000 bombers hit here and 3,000,000 bombers hit there...all blends together after a bit!"

He's right -there were numerous Allied raids including shipping at Balikpan (14 ships hit), big strategic strikes on Nagoya, and various air/sea battles that wiped out quite a few Jap aircraft and damaged a dozen or so Jap ships.

Today, John said that he had requested a re-do via email yesterday, which is odd because (a) I never received any such email, and (b) as you can see from the above email excerpt he didn't complain about the attack then.

I have declined a re-do for a variety of reasons:

1)  This is yet another request, including the second this week.  Barring unusual circumstances, once a turn is done and sent, that should be it.  (I had declined his previous request because I had already finished the turn, spending an hour doing so, when I received his request; I had told him that I preferred to proceed unless it was something really major, and he neve said anything further about it).

2)  I have had many things go awry in this game but never requested a re-do.

3)  John says he had these bombers set to max range of six, but I bet he forgot to do that. 

4)  If we go back a turn, there's no way of making sure that all of the favorable action (the Nagoya raid, Balikpan raid, various air/sea battles, etc.) are re-created.

This may be a game-stopper, because John is irate about the loss of his bombers and I say it's "fortunes of war."  He hasn't replied yet.



paullus99 -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/9/2009 9:52:35 PM)

Well, sounds like his "Charge of the Light Brigade." Wouldn't surprise me, though it would be disappointing, if this was the game-stopper. How many fighters did you have on CAP?

Sounds like he might have tried to hit you with the KB - which would also explain his desire to turn back the clock.



Canoerebel -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/9/2009 10:03:14 PM)

Eniwetok had a pretty stout CAP, which has been in place for two or three months of game time.  Here is the combat results:

Day Air attack on Eniwetok , at 77,78
 
Japanese aircraft
B7A Grace x 283

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 25
F6F-5 Hellcat x 3
P-38J Lightning x 20
F4U-1 Corsair x 19
P-38L Lightning x 38

Japanese aircraft losses
B7A Grace: 266 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 damaged
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 damaged
P-38L Lightning: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
AS Howard W. Gilmore, Bomb hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x B7A Grace bombing at 9000 feet



wbm4x -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/9/2009 10:46:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Japanese aircraft
B7A Grace x 283


Isn't the Grace his KB torpedo bomber? Armed with bombs, KB is probably at extended range from Eniwetok, set to port attack. Why they came in without any escorts is puzzling. Perhaps he is hoping to catch you in a CAP trap over KB?



Q-Ball -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/9/2009 10:48:09 PM)

That would be too bad if this ended, I told John in his AAR I understand why he would ask for a re-do. On the other hand, I don't like to grant them, and I've made plenty of setting mistakes in TFs or planes that ended up being costly, including range errors (which you really have to watch as Japan, and is very easy to screw up).

I think it really depends on if you want to continue the game. If not, may as well end it, but if you do, I would probably give it to him, because you're winning anyway, and it won't affect the outcome. Contingent of course on him not changing ANY other settings at Balikpapan, etc.



Canoerebel -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/10/2009 12:22:50 AM)

Here's the message I just sent to John:  "I don't like do-overs, but considering how faithful you've been to the game through thick and thin, I concede the point. I'll send you the file in just a little while."



Canoerebel -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/11/2009 10:18:25 PM)

Per John's request, I agreed to re-do that last turn.  I sent him the file late Thursday, didn't hear from him, and sent him an email yesterday asking him to let me know one way or the other whether we're still playing.  He replied that he's feeling "ambivalent."  I guess he's trying to decide, so for now I'm unsure whether the game is over or not.  I wish he'd decide yay or nay so that I wouldn't keep looking for a new turn.



bigbaba -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/11/2009 10:38:14 PM)

its a good idea to reroll. if someone has the stamina and plays the japanese for this long time like john, he earns at least one re-do.

hopefully john will play it to the end.





JeffroK -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/12/2009 1:40:33 AM)

John has another game running, and is seeking a PBEM player for a scenario.

Maybe this one has lost his interest now its his turn for a drubbing.

Plus its his second "mulligan", remember his snafu with the Jacks!





paullus99 -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/12/2009 12:43:09 PM)

One of the main problems with the majority of these PBEMs - it is perfectly fine for the Japanese to drum the crud out of the Allies for the first couple of years, but as soon as the overwhelming might of the Allies is unleashed in late 1943/1944, the war kind of petters out.

I know it isn't cool or fun to get pounded - but you'd think, if the Allies have to put up with it at the beginning - the Japanese should finish out the game the best way that they can.



Nemo121 -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/12/2009 2:51:46 PM)

John likes to crow about his strategic and tactical nous but, in reality, he makes a lot of strategic errors ( India etc ) and tactical ones ( not CHECKING things before sending turn files).

If he failed to check something which he could have corrected then it is right that he should suffer the necessary consequences. In the long run this will make him check things more, get a more rational perspective as to his strengths and weaknesses and help him improve his play ( which should be what he aims for instead of glorying in his successes and blaming the game and opponents for his failures ).

He needs to develop an internal locus of control wherein he is responsible for success and failure and so does the work necessary for the former rather than an external locus of control in which the game and opponents cheating results in failure for plans which were theistically pre-determined to be successful ( in his mind ).



vettim89 -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/12/2009 4:44:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

John likes to crow about his strategic and tactical nous but, in reality, he makes a lot of strategic errors ( India etc ) and tactical ones ( not CHECKING things before sending turn files).

If he failed to check something which he could have corrected then it is right that he should suffer the necessary consequences. In the long run this will make him check things more, get a more rational perspective as to his strengths and weaknesses and help him improve his play ( which should be what he aims for instead of glorying in his successes and blaming the game and opponents for his failures ).

He needs to develop an internal locus of control wherein he is responsible for success and failure and so does the work necessary for the former rather than an external locus of control in which the game and opponents cheating results in failure for plans which were theistically pre-determined to be successful ( in his mind ).


Couldn't agree more. Also anything John does that is on the "gamey" side is good tactics. Anything his opponent does that is the least bit ahistorical is "gamey". Two posts come to mind immediately. The first is when Dan invaded Georgetown and he LRCAP'd his RN CV's with P-38's. He went on and on how the Allies never did anything like this and how ahistorical it was. Then when Dan's NAVSEARCH LBA started creaming his AK's off Triv, he screamed about the game system and how screwed up it was. Yet, John bragged incessantly about how many Allied subs he sunk with LBA using the same "screwed up" NAVSEARCH routine. He rips all his DB off his CV's and replaces them with TB and gloats at what a great move it is even though this may be one of the most ahistorical moves in the game (oh, and a favorite one of almost all JFB's).

John has announced the game was over. I want to thank you Dan for a most etertaining AAR. Kudos to you for stickig with this game when things looked so grim for so long.



pat.casey -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/12/2009 4:54:07 PM)

Just wanted to say this AAR was a pleasure to read (from both sides). Sorry to see it end, but it sounds like it was time.



Nemo121 -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/12/2009 7:42:06 PM)

Aye, kudos to both players for their AARs.

Vettim - Aye, I do the DB thing and putting fighters onto CVs etc too but the difference is I think turn-around is fair game when the Allies do it to me also ;-)



thegreatwent -> RE: All is calm, all is bright.... (4/12/2009 8:02:49 PM)

I've enjoyed both AARs thanks for the work and education from both sides. Fair wind and following seas[:)]



Canoerebel -> Japs Utterly Demolished, Demoralized, Dehumidified, Decentralized, etc. (4/13/2009 6:02:52 AM)

Gents,

Okay, so I'm exaggerating a bit with the title to this post.  But after a eighteen months of intense battle, John and I have decided the game can end here.  While questions remained to be answered (what would happen to the KB?  When would the Allies win?), there was no doubt that the Allies were going to achieve auto-victory in 1945. John had walked the extra mile in sticking with the game so faithfully and so long, and I think we're both ready to close the chapter on this contest and move on.

Thanks first to John.  I have already dealt with this in detail in other posts, so I won't dive in again other than to reiterate that my esteem for my opponent is like a brotherly affection that far exceeded the irriations that sometimes arise when two people engage intensely in a contest for so long.  John is a good man, a faithful opponent, and a crafty strategist.  I've been fortunate in my two WITP games to square off against him and Miller.

Thanks to all you guys who followed this AAR.  I well remember the early, dark days of the war when I was registering about 14 hits per post, and half of them were mine.  I didn't know what I was doing in the game, and the utter catastrophe the Allies faced in 1942 eventually attracted onlookers who were curious as to how somebody could so badly mismanage a war. 

Many, many of you posted helpful and considerate comments.  Q-Ball merits special mention because he helped me, back in 1943, think through some of my early plans to try to mount a comeback.  He never crossed the line into providing detailed advice, but rather would pose the occasional question:  "Have you thought about whether you'll need this or that" when I mentioned a plan.  He later "retired" from this semi-advisory capacity when it looked like I might have a chance to win and when he teamed up with John in their "First Team" game.

Among those others who come to mind as faithful readers who offered helpful and encouraging comments:  Paullus, Vettim, JeffK, Tocaff, string, Nemo, Kereguelen, witpqs, and lots of others.  Terminus even posted once - a rather hilarious comment following the great Battle of the Gulf of Alaska back in '42.

Thanks also to Matrix for offering an incredibly challenging and complex game that is so intuitive that even newbies have a fighting chance.  Great game.  Too great, in fact, as I'll detail in another thread sometime soon.  I'm addicted and I have no willpower!

So, tonight I go to bed knowing that there won't be a turn in my inbox to get the day started right.  It's going to take me awhile to adjust to life without WitP.  I'm afraid I'm going to be like the old lady in "To Kill a Mockingbird" who goes cold turkey to overcome her morphine addiction. 

Good night, gents.

Dan Roper




MrPlow9 -> RE: Japs Utterly Demolished, Demoralized, Dehumidified, Decentralized, etc. (4/13/2009 6:29:25 AM)

[image]http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w37/wondertwinss/v33fhz-1.gif[/image]

Great Game!



NormS3 -> RE: Japs Utterly Demolished, Demoralized, Dehumidified, Decentralized, etc. (4/13/2009 6:09:58 PM)

I will truly miss your AAR. I congratulate you on your fantastic game and am more than willing to take back my comparison with your tactics and Lee's at Gettysburg! It was fantastic to watch/read your comeback and hopefully I have learned how to play this game better through your AAR.



EWGuttag -> RE: Japs Utterly Demolished, Demoralized, Dehumidified, Decentralized, etc. (4/13/2009 6:20:33 PM)

Dan,

I echo everyone elses' comments, a great AAR from you and John.  Good luck in the future and Good Hunting!



Misconduct -> RE: Japs Utterly Demolished, Demoralized, Dehumidified, Decentralized, etc. (4/13/2009 7:51:43 PM)

Rebel, congrats on your excellent game and thanks so much for posting these AAR's, I learned enough reading your AAR I applied most of it to my game in my first game as allies.



stldiver -> RE: Japs Utterly Demolished, Demoralized, Dehumidified, Decentralized, etc. (4/13/2009 10:13:58 PM)

You did very well and I also from the backrow enjoyed reading your AAR.


Best of luck on your next game.



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