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Canoerebel -> RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel (4/16/2008 4:49:43 PM)
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4/15/43 to 4/20/43
Gents, thanks for the comments, encouragement, and suggestions. I've noted how careful readers are not to give away any "intel" from reading my opponent's AAR, which is commendable and much appreciated. Here's the situation:
CenPac: The big CV battle north of Hawaii didn't happen. John moved his CVs west back to Midway, carefully avoiding moving within range of LRCAP or LB bombers from Hawaii. The Allied CVs also moved west, but while remaining within LRCAP of Hawaii and French Frigate Shoals. My CVs are still out there, but will return home soon. (The Allies have fully built up French Frigate, and have just begun work on Laysan Island).
Australia/NZ: Standoff in Australia continues; no sign of Japs moving on NZ.
Burma: The Japs now have 30 units about 120k strong at Rangoon, and another sizeable force 100k in Moulmein. But I don't think the Japs can successfully move against the Allied force beseiging Rangoon, nor the force in the hex to the rear. I suspect John is considering a move by sea around my flank and against my rear, but we'll see. For the foreseeable future, I'm content with a seige at Rangoon drawing in all available forces. Once the Allies take control of the air - autumn '43 should be about right - I can try to change that.
China: Allied troops gathering at Lungchow on the Vietnam border, a situation John will not have missed. I'm not ready to invade Vietnam yet. I'm letting political points build until I can transfer perhaps three more large units to Southeast Asia, and then I will make the decision.
Allied Plans: I think John believes a move by the Allies is imminent, which suits me since nothing will happen for several months yet. So as the tension builds, perhaps he will make a mistake (his recent CV cruise north of Pearl Harbor is the kind of move that could potentially lead to disaster, and that's the kind of thing I'm hoping for while I'm gathering and planning while waiting for Allied carrier strength to build).
The Allies have been mulling ove a variety of plans for the "breakout offensive" that will occur later this year. This attack will have to be massive and create major problems for the Japs, since it will be happening so late in the game and with the Allies so far behind schedule. If it isn't massive and successful, it would likely be the end of the game.
Given Jap carrier power, the attack needs to occur at a location where John doesn't have vast amounts of LBA available. That means the attack has to take place either at a remote locale or someplace unexpected where the Allies can seize an airfield or two and transfer in some fighters for CAP before the Japs can fully react.
At this point the Allies are leaning towards two plans:
(1) Operation Red Planet: A two-stage attack, the first to take Marcus Island (currently just a level 2 airfield) to give the Allies a support base; followed by a major invasion of the Philippines. The latter target is based on the assumption that it would catch John totally by surprise, that it would be lightly garrisoned, and that the Allies could bring enough troops, supplies, ships, and aircraft to create a self-supporting colony the could handle both defense and offense (against Japanese shipping in the South China Sea) and withstand the Japanese counterattack. The selection of optimum pre-invasion targets would be possible by using the Allied base at Iloilo. The Japs still haven't taken this hex (John used is as bombing practice) and it has a small base force and infantry unit. Prior to the invasion, the Allies would transfer in recon aicraft from China/Burma/India and scout Manila, Aparri, Davao, etc. Once the invasion occurred, the Allies could transfer aircraft into newly seized bases from the CBI theater. It may also be possible to air transport Chinese units into some of the bases in NW Luzon (I'm not sure they are in range, but I'll check). If this operation were successful, it would essentially put the Allies back on schedule and leave John with the massive logistical hurdle of retrieving his units from far-forward bases (Society Islands, New Caledonia, Australia, etc) that were no longer very relevant to the game. This plan depends greatly on the availability of Iloilo. If John takes it in the next 30 to 45 days, it would decrease the likelihood of choosing this plan.
(2) Operation Blue Planet: A massive invasion of the nothern-most Japanese Home Island - the one with Sopporro. John has held the Aleutian chain since early in the game and I've done absolutely nothing up there, so I hope there's a chance that John would not consider that northern island a likely target. If by a sudden, surprise invasion the Allies could seize most or all of the island, establsih the airbases, and ward off any counterattack, it would give the Allies the base they need within air range to commence bombing the HI in '44. Once the Allies had secured this island, they could then focus on retaking the Aleutians. I started seriously contemplating this operation two days ago, and yesterday John posts a thread titled something like "Situation on My Northern Perimeter." So clearly he's not totally ignoring this possibility. This opeation would become more likely if the Japs re-take Iloilo or if there are other indications an Allied move on the Philippines was contemplated by the Japs.
(3) If neither of these plans looks feasible, I don't know what the fallback would be. The Allies won't have time to ****foot around, starting from scratch to attack the outer perimeter of Jap-held islands. I've got to begin somewhere inside that perimeter, both to get closer to the heart of Jap territory and to make the spread-out, far-flung nature of the Jap empire work against them from a logistical standpoint.
Edit: Okay, I'm glad the forums don't allow vulgarities, but in my neck of the woods "puss_foot" around isn't a vulgarity.
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