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modrow -> RE: A Thought... (1/11/2009 10:22:22 AM)
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John,
this is a contribution/commentary of class [;)]
quote:
ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Sent the June 12th turn back to Dan this evening and had a sudden thought. I am a believer in letting the mind chew on something before acting immediately on it but this might be an exception to my normal way of thinking.
Dan is now tied to Wake for the foreseeable future. This provides me with a bit of time to TRY something.
The American Strategic Bombardment is worrisome. He hits Japan every day from Iwo Jima and Sakhalin with occasional strikes flying in from China. The thought suddenly struck me that Dan and I follow our House Rules really well. Iwo Jima is a Sz-6 AF that is flying a 72 Plane P-38 Group, at least 140 4EB, 80 or so B-29, and recon/air search planes. The math is simple--it adds up to 300 planes.
I haven't done a recon for quite a while and will tomorrow.
My air search consistently picks up two Fast BB patroling in the atoll's hex. I can easily assume that it is mined with about 1,000,000 mines.
The Question is simple to ask. If Dan uses 58 or so P-38 to fly escort then what is he using for CAP?
The entire Japanese Carrier Force is available with NOTHING to do for the moment...
I have 100s of bombers that could strike Iwo Jima from Pagan (AF-4 200 planes) or the Home Islands.
The problem is knocking down the airstrip...
Does someone have a good new Operational Name for me?
I am going to nail Iwo Jima. My Carriers can attack with ALL their Zeros on Sweep while I launch several hundred Helen, Betty 2, and Frances escorted by long-range Oscars. My Judy and Jills can sink the Battleships surrounding the Island.
Let me try to come up with an analysis of this op. This is just to practice doing so, I am not a real expert in this field and bound to forget half the relevant points, so if you want sound advice ask e.g. Nemo or Alfred rather than me [:)].
a) Is the target of strategic importance ? (I believe in preservation of assets for strikes that are meaningful and prefer letting them sit somewhere to sending them to perform meaningless tasks without much impact)
I think this is the case. Strategic bombing is important if you play for points and it is disturbing your production, thus it is of high importance for the result of this game. (Fortunately, in this game he cannot go after the fuel plants for your planes [;)] so you wont't run into fuel problems with your interceptors - this may ruin even the best air defense).
Thus it may be worth attacking here.
b) Expected results
I believe (and it is no more than that, I do not have experience with this kind of attack this late in the war, my estimate is based on hitting a well scouted PM in 1942 with 150-250 experienced Japanese level bombers after sweeping away fighter cover which was always sort of disappointing for me) that even if hundreds of Japanese Bombers fly, are not intercepted and hit Iwo in a somewhat coherent way, you will not close the airfield and your opponent will lose only a few dozens of planes. I don’t know the replacement rates for Allied heavies in the version of the game you are playing, but I fear that the units located thereon will most likely be back in business soon.
If you manage to damage his BB severely or sink them, this is a nice additional bonus and would add some more points, but I do not believe this is strategically important.
In view of the above, potentially the most relevant result may be possible psychological implications I see (again - there are better experts than me for these aspects as well). Your opponent has made a bold move by taking Iwo, but this means this base must be difficult and risky to supply. Potentially, his move at Wake shows that he is well aware of just that. But if you are correct, he is tied there now, so he could not remove the danger. In addition, he has lost the initiative in this theater if your analysis is correct.
His concerns about his ability to supply Iwo with the necessary amount of supplies to keep his strategic bombardments rolling must be increased now after you have dealt a bad blow at some of his shipping. His convoys are *NOT* secure even much closer to Midway and Pearl. They need additional protection.
Thus, if now a direct attack on Iwo occurs and is successful, yet another unexpected threat to a position which he may consider to be endangered already will become evident this theater might occupy most of his attention and he may pour additional resources into defending what he has achieved rather than attacking your empire further. If he thinks about how to defend rather than how to attack at this point of the game, this is good for you.
Specifically, if he loses his BBs protecting the island, this may double his fears that the island may be subject to a nuke bombardment (specifically if you keep up intense recon flights) any time soon. This would be nice, as it is a localized threat which is independent of KB… This is also where long-term bonus may kick in – if he starts using part of Iwo’s plane capacity for more search planes and more air to surface strike assets, this would take some planes off the strategic bombing project which can only be of advantage for you. For this reason, how about naming this op “Part One” ?
Thus, in spite of the fact that I don’t expect Allied losses which may be achieved in this op to be really significant it may be worth running it due to the implications it may have.
c) Risk involved
I don’t know your houserules, specifically the ones relating to 4E bombers on naval attack. Even if they are not set to this mission in the turn you show up surprisingly, they will be in the turn after. I do not think the AF will be closed and I think there will be more operational planes than you will like available afterwards. I assume that it will be difficult to defend against many 4E bombers on naval attack, and their range is quite high. Can you make sure you get out of Dodge sufficiently fast or make this attack impale itself on additional CAP consisting of a massive number of experienced LBA fighters, if this is ok with your style of play?
Furthermore are you sure that in between attacks the planes are set to training? I sometimes let squadrons rest on naval attack missions with rest as secondary mission if I believe it is unlikely but not impossible for shipping to show up. Depending on what 4Es may and may not do in your game, you may be facing a naval strike on day 1 already. Even an escorted one, because if no strikes leave the base, planes on escort mission may lower their fatigue as well.
In addition, do estimate what will happen to your 200 plane sweep if it should encounter a sizeable amount of fighters on CAP. If you run into the risk of losing many experienced KB pilots in this sweep and would not be able to replace them with well trained pilots, this may reduce the threat KB poses significantly. Even worse: If those BBs protecting Iwo are located at the base and your naval strike goes in before the sweep, things may be really ugly in this situation.
To maintain KB as a threat/fleet in being is of highest possible importance for you. Once it is gone, your opponent can devote many more assets to offensive duties rather than guarding against a surprise attack.
d) Summary
From my comfortable spectator’s seat [sm=00000613.gif]...
I would probably go for the mission IF you can get out of Dodge sufficiently fast, thus reducing your risk to be exposed to a day 2 attack AND can time it in suc a way that you can be quite sure the strike occurs on a day after a strategic bombing from Iwo has occurred, impeding his planes with high fatigue and grounding at least some of them. Not sure whether I would make the same call if it was my game…
Just my 2 cents… if someone out there sees flaws in my view on things, please do correct me…
Hartwig
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