Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (Full Version)

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motnahp -> Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/23/2008 5:12:09 AM)

The bunting thread got me thinking about something else. In the first assn where I actually managed games, I noticed that the AI was in lust with the hit and run every time there were runners on the corners and less than two outs. The most common result of this was a ground ball out and a run scored. Selecting Pitch Out never had any effect on the result. Once in a while the batter would "fail" and it would become a stolen base attempt. My selection of "Pitch Out" seemed to have zero influence toward when this would happen. In fact, I don't remember it ever happening when "Pitch Out" was selected.

After seeing my Braves give up runs this way, I figured "what's good for the goose......". I did the same thing and had the same high success rate getting that run home.

When I managed my 1975 A's, I tended to Hit & Run a great deal when I had lead butts both on first and at the plate. This had the same effect as a sacrifice bunt most of the time. The runner ended up on second and I escaped the risk of a double play. I don't recall the AI ever pitching out to prevent this. AI seemed to Pitch Out only when there was a legitimate base-stealing threat on first.



JimboJ -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/23/2008 5:47:24 AM)

One problem is the decision to hit and run or pitch out is dependant on the count as well as number of outs, runners, etc.  Unless the game lets you make decisions on each individual pitch, it doesn't make any sense.  You are making a decision to hit and run or pitch out without knowing whether or not the batter or pitcher gets a favorable count.



motnahp -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/23/2008 5:49:53 AM)

All true. I would just like to see the hit and run fail more often if the manager (human or AI) selects "Pitch Out", since a pitchout is really the only defense against it, other than a completely wild pitcher.



KG Erwin -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/23/2008 6:20:32 AM)

The hit & run is NOT a sure thing. Many times I've seen a strike out and the runner doubled off. If you manage many games, you know exactly what I'm talking about.



motnahp -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/23/2008 6:37:48 AM)

I should go back and review some Game Logs (I hope the H & R is in the log). I suspect that the 1st & 3rd situation works at least 75% of the time. I've never seen Pitch Out have any bearing against the H & R, either.

No time tonight....maybe tomorrow.



EricB -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/26/2008 7:32:03 PM)

I think I've seen my share of "Strike 'em out, throw 'em out" DPs, too. I'll make a note and track them to see if I notice any pattern.

Maybe the '75 A's had a good percentage of contact hitters and speedsters to get the job done.

PITCH OUT should definetly have some impact on the dynamics of the "play", though.



motnahp -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/27/2008 5:32:48 AM)

In my 1979 A's replay, I've gone back and looked at the Oakland Game Logs. Here are the results of the ten most recent 1st & 3rd Hit & Runs:

MAY 27, Top of the 1st, One out. 3rd-Murphy, 1st-Henderson, B-Revering. Result: 6-3, run scores.

MAY 24, Top of the 4th, One out. 3rd-Page, 1st-Armas, B-Revering. Result: 3-run HR.

MAY 22, Bot of the 2nd, One out. 3rd-M May, 1st-Bannister, B-Lemon. Result: F4.

MAY 22, Top of the 5th, One out. 3rd-Bryant, 1st-Armas, B-Revering. Result: 4-6-3 DP.

MAY 22, Top of the 8th, One out. 3rd-Dilone, 1st-Picciolo, B-Edwards. Result: 1B, RBI.

MAY 18, Top of the 2nd, One out. 3rd-Moore, 1st-Bando, B-Molitor. Result: 1B, RBI.

MAY 17, Top of the 2nd, One out. 3rd-Soderholm, 1st-Pryor, B-Bannister. Result: 1B, RBI.

MAY 17, Top of the 2nd, One out. 3rd-Pryor, 1st-Bannister, B-Lemon. Result: F9, Pryor out at plate after tagging.

MAY 11, Top of the 2nd, One out. 3rd-Newman, 1st-Henderson, B-Edwards. Result: 6-3, run scores.

MAY 11, Top of the 7th, One out. 3rd-Newman, 1st-Klutts, B-Henderson. Result: 1B, RBI.

This small sample included six attempts by myself as manager, as well as four attempts by the game's AI. I realize it's a small sample, but, in the words of Nick Saban, "it is what it is". For those of you not subjected to the vomitus of Alabama football 365 days a year, Saban was trying to explain how a suspended player suddenly became "unsuspended" in the second half when his team was losing to Louisiana Monroe.

70% success rate getting the run home: One homer, four singles, and two groundouts.

0% runners getting caught stealing.

I have occasionally seen guys caught trying the more traditional H & R with just a man on first. I repeat, however, that I have never seen "Pitchout" have any affect at all on the H & R.



KG Erwin -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/27/2008 5:45:03 AM)

Perhaps, then, a limit on the H&R play (whether self-imposed or built into the game) should be considered? No more than once or twice per game?



motnahp -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/27/2008 6:37:58 PM)

Not a bad idea, at all. This whole thing brings back some memories from days gone by.

Back in 1984-1985, I ran a small Statis-Pro league on a Navy ship. Our league banned the 1st and 3rd Hit & Run altogether. I was "commissioner" and had already discovered that game's soft spot in ref. to the H&R. I never sat and analyzed the success rate, but it was at least as high as the one in PS. Playing/managing hundreds of games gives one a keen insight toward trends, I have found.

When I transferred to a different ship in 1986, I was the newbie and joined a league with 7 others. I suggested the same ban, but the other guys were already set in their ways and would not agree. They had even been drafting the guys with only a handful of at-bats or innings pitched and treating them as regular players.

For example, a guy who went 4-for-10 in a late season call-up had a great player card. If one of his hits was a double, triple, or homer, look out! Those type of players became stars in the league. These were "household" names like Scott Loucks and Curt Ford.

Another thing they (and myself, to keep up with the Joneses) did was use players at any position they had appeared at during the previous year. As an example, Toronto's George Bell appeared at 3B in 1985 and had no errors playing there. Consequently, he was rated as "E0" at 3B, with only an extremely rare chance of an error. Guess who my starting third baseman was? This distorted the realism I was accustomed to, but....when in Rome......(or onboard Guadalcanal)......

Eventually, the guys in this league got bored with it and we never finished. I ended up buying the Commodore 64 version of Statis-Pro and starting my own league with some of the same guys and some others. As commish of this new league, I was able to "impose my will" and stick to realism. I didn't get too much dissension, since I had the only C-64 in the group AND the only game disk.[;)]

As long as the PS AI is taking advantage of this soft spot, I must do the same. At least it gives me some perspective on how some players justified using banned substances to keep up with their own Joneses. I'm having a hard enough time winning any games with the 1979 A's. I can 1st & 3rd H&R all day long. It might get me another 2-3 runs in a week's time. That just means I can lose 8-3 and 7-4, instead of 8-2 and 7-3! What I need is a pitching version of the soft spot.[;)][;)][;)]



motnahp -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/28/2008 5:58:11 AM)

It's getting tougher and tougher to manage the 1979 A's. What the lleh was I thinking?

I just completed a game where the following three things happened:

(1) An unearned run was charged as an earned run against my pitcher's record.
(2) The AI manager scored a run using the semi-automatic 1st & 3rd Hit & Run (same inning as #1). Ground out, run scores.
(3) Top of the 9th. Two outs. A's trailing Minnesota 3-2. Tony Armas on 2nd base (SP = 35). Miguel Dilone singles to left center field. LF is Willie Norwood (Arm = 35). Ken Landreaux is the CF (Arm = 70). Tony Armas.....yes.....moves to 3rd. Next batter grounds out and the game is over. Loss #8 in a row.

I hate to sound like I'm griping about the game. I love the program, but it's hard enough to win as it is, without #2 and #3 above suffocating my poor A's.[sm=sign0063.gif]



sooner7 -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/29/2008 4:52:57 PM)

motnahp,
I had the same problem with the unearned runs not being counted as earned.  I think one of the latest patches was supposed to fix that problem.  I think it has fixed the problem in my league, but I will keep an eye on it.  By the way, I have enjoyed reading your Locker reports, and admire you for attemping to play a season like that.



motnahp -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/30/2008 1:14:48 AM)

It's very possible that I don't know what the lleh I'm talking about.[&:] My understanding is that the way to determine if a run is earned or unearned is to re-create the inning as if the error never occured.

Example: The first batter in an inning reaches on a fielding error. The next two batters strike out. The inning should be over. Any run scoring after the second out would be considered unearned. Of course, it's never that simple and I may be mistaken.

Thanks for the pat on the back about the 1979 A's. I'm at the point now where the games are just part of the enjoyment. I've come to the conculsion that I'm destined for a very bad season, so I'm trying to inject a little humor now and again. This both takes some of my pain away and (I hope) gives others an occasional chuckle. I can imagine that the real-life manager of such a young and overmatched team must go through a lot of the same emotions I am experiencing losing all those games.



KG Erwin -> RE: Hit & Run - Low Risk, High Reward (1/30/2008 2:10:55 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: motnahp

It's very possible that I don't know what the lleh I'm talking about.[&:] My understanding is that the way to determine if a run is earned or unearned is to re-create the inning as if the error never occured.

Example: The first batter in an inning reaches on a fielding error. The next two batters strike out. The inning should be over. Any run scoring after the second out would be considered unearned. Of course, it's never that simple and I may be mistaken.

Thanks for the pat on the back about the 1979 A's. I'm at the point now where the games are just part of the enjoyment. I've come to the conculsion that I'm destined for a very bad season, so I'm trying to inject a little humor now and again. This both takes some of my pain away and (I hope) gives others an occasional chuckle. I can inagine that the real-life manager of such a young and overmatched team must go through a lot of the same emotions I am experiencing losing all those games.


Don't feel so bad, man. In my current association, the AI-controlled 1947 Cubs have started the season 0-9. My Dodgers (5-4) will be facing them at the end of April (in Brooklyn).



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