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Joel Billings -> RE: AAR Jon Pyle (Union) vs Joel Billings (Confederate) - Confederate POV (5/3/2008 8:51:30 AM)
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In July, Sherman advanced on Fredericksburg with 95,000 men, while Grant with 80,000 men rested his army in Augusta, GA, placing his main army in a position to attack Columbia, SC or Atlanta. Lyon and Sheridan apparently did not get initiative and there whereabouts are still unknown. Likely at least one is probably in Corinth or Memphis, with the other likely to be either in Nashville or Charleston, although that's just a guess at this point. Beauregard did not get initiative, and was unable to move to Fredericksburg. That left 15,000 men to be steamrolled by Sherman. Two precious divisions were lost and the senior Confederate commander, Henry Walker, was killed. Had Beauregard gotten initiative (about a 75% chance), I would have been able to show up with between 50-65,000 troops, which in the Wilderness would have had a good chance to beat Sherman. Fortunes of war however, as Sherman stole a march on Beauregard. Beauregard is a good case study of leadership. He started with a 2 attack rating and a 3 defense rating. When he won his 5th major victory, his attack rating improved to 3 (increasing his chance for initiative by about 10%). He now has 9 major victories, and if he wins another, his attack rating will go up to 4. If he manages to win 11 major victories, his defense rating will also go up to 4. This would be an amazing accomplishment, as few leaders are able to win this many major battles during a normal game (I've never seen it happen yet in the test games I've played).
The very bad news for the Confederacy in July was not Fredericksburg. It was the effectiveness of the Union cavalry. With JEB Stuart wounded and out of action, and most of the Confederate cavalry pulled over to the Shenandoah Valley, Union cavalry rode around the Confederate troops in Fredericksburg, destroying rail lines and supplies in the Richmond, Petersburg and Gordonsville areas. Beauregard's army found it difficult to get supplies, and rail movement was impossible. After supplies were consumed by my units at the beginning of my turn, I had 0 supplies left. This meant I could not repair the damaged rail. A large part of my forces in Virginia marched to Richmond, where they will more easily be able to resupply themselves from the Richmond factories. I was forced to use almost all of my factories to produce supplies. The Union forces have more cavalry now than I do, and since there are many areas I need to keep constantly scouted in order not to be surprised, my cavalry is more spread out. Union naval transport capability can shift large numbers of troops into any number of Union controlled coastal locations in the south. Given this situation, and better Union cavalry commanders that are now leading the more numerous Union cavalry, it looks like a major new threat has emerged to counter the Confederate interior lines. I repositioned some of my cavalry to counter some of the worst threats, but could only do so much. I attempted several raids of my own, but they were not effective. Hopefully things will even out a little in the future. Having no supply reserves is a scary thing. It means I can't build fortifications, can't create additional cavalry units, and cannot repair rail lines that get damaged.
In the war at sea, Union cruisers sank Semmes raider, but Buchanan's was successful, capturing another 5 supplies and costing the Union another very important political point.
The political score at the end of the July 64 was: Union 992 Confederate 1110
At this time, it's worth a note about political points. At the beginning of each Union turn, the Union player loses 27 political points. They then gain PPs equal to the combined total of the political ratings of their six Theatre and Army Commanders. Currently this total is 15. So the Union is losing 12 PPs per turn. The Union player has to keep taking territory or winning major battles in order to offset this loss. At the beginning of the Confederate turn, the Confederate player loses 9 PPs per turn, but also gains points for their TCs and ACs. Currently my leaders political ratings add up to 17, so I'm gaining a new 8 PPs per turn. At the beginning of November, before the Union player loses points, the Presidential election is held. If the Union player has 1000 Political Points, Lincoln is reelected. So assuming the Union player loses 12 PPs at the beginning of August, September and October, the Union player needs to gain 44 political points in the next three months. Capturing either Atlanta or Columbia via a strategic victory in battle would do this, although strategic losses can lose the Union points, and I could always retake a lost area if I'm willing to risk a counterattack. This is a very close game. If Lincoln loses the election, the Confederacy will win. If Lincoln wins the election, there's still a chance for a Confederate victory depending on how well the Union does in the first half of 1865. This game is as close as they come.
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