Numbers or Past Performance - Where is the weight? (Full Version)

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Frozen Stiffer -> Numbers or Past Performance - Where is the weight? (6/2/2008 12:26:35 AM)

I have a relief pitcher in my fictional association.

His name is Joseph Cecil and his Stu/Velo/Cont is 45/45/41, or what I would consider somewhat below average.

Currently, he has 24 IP, and an ERA of 0.84.

This is not going to turn into a dicsussion of why a pitcher's numbers sometimes reflect his S/V/C and why they sometimes don't. I'm actually headed in a different direction with this thread. Cecil's bubble is going to burst. With numbers like that, it cannot last. Like an old horse on its last leg, do I ride him till he dies, or do I use him sparingly and treat him like a fragile Ming vase knowing that he's going to blow a head gasket any minute now and allow 15 runs on 1/3 IP?

When you make your call on a player, be it a pitcher or a hitter, what weighs more with you, his ratings (S/V/C or C/P/E for hitters) or his stats (ERA, SO, AVG, HR, .OBP, etc.)? Conversely, how would YOU treat Cecil?



KG Erwin -> RE: Numbers or Past Performance - Where is the weight? (6/2/2008 1:31:14 AM)

Hmm... do I take it that he has a declining POT rating? How old is he? What are you paying him?

I've gotten pretty ruthless when it comes to declining players. I try to trade them or demote them to the minors, hopefully forcing them to retire. Otherwise, they are facing an outright release.

As for the ratings vs stats, I have found that a simple change of scenery can do wonders for a player. Let's take one of my guys, Pete Reiser, as an example. With my Dodgers, he was not contributing. I sent him to the Athletics, and now he's hitting over .350 for a second-division team. Go figure. Do these virtual players have hidden personality features? I doubt it, but it makes me wonder.

As a day to day manager AND GM, I sometimes find myself in the odd position of having to resolve a conflict between these two identities. Being a Gemini, and by definition a bit of a schizophrenic, this comes naturally. [:D]

All that aside, the up/ neutral/ down arrows in a player's profile weighs heavily on my assessment of their value, especially now that I'm using financials.



Frozen Stiffer -> RE: Numbers or Past Performance - Where is the weight? (6/2/2008 2:24:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: KG Erwin

Hmm... do I take it that he has a declining POT rating? How old is he? What are you paying him?



Yes- hit POT is 1 (with down-arrow). He's 36 and is being used as a middle reliever (41 endurance). He's earning $1,162,127 on his 1-year contract.



Wrathchild -> RE: Numbers or Past Performance - Where is the weight? (6/2/2008 4:37:52 PM)

I usually base my decisions on how a player is currently performing, as I tend to be rather shortsighted and don't look too far into the future.



Bustoff -> RE: Numbers or Past Performance - Where is the weight? (6/2/2008 6:47:56 PM)

24 IP? Over how many games? I have seen below-average pitchers hold up surprisingly well in the short term, i.e. one or two innings per appearance. These same relief pitchers will blow up in as few as three or four innings. At his age and with those numbers, I think Joe would be a good man to put in to hold the offense for a couple of innings if you have a 3+ run advantage. If he has a meltdown--and you're right, it will happen--you can hopefully see it coming in time and yank him before he does fatal damage.



Frozen Stiffer -> RE: Numbers or Past Performance - Where is the weight? (6/3/2008 5:03:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bustoff

24 IP? Over how many games?


17 games.



Bustoff -> RE: Numbers or Past Performance - Where is the weight? (6/5/2008 7:43:09 PM)

Hey, congrats on your 1000th post! [&o] 24 IP over 17 games makes Joe a short-timer, and a pretty good one at the moment. I would recommend letting him continue with short stretches, like holding in the 8th before you bring in your closer (if you use a closer). You should be a bit leery of dropping him into clutch situations unless you have a death wish. Sooner or later, reality is going to catch up with Joe. When it does all bets are off--and you can watch his ERA boldly go where it has never gone before.



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