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Distiller -> RE: Incoming! (6/4/2009 8:15:09 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
Personally I think their doctrine relied a bit too much on the enemy being dumb BUT if the USN had done what the Japanese expected I really don't have any problem imagining that 30 IJN DD ( 16 torpedoes each ) + 6 or so CLs ( another 16 torps each ) + the 2 Kitakamis ( about 80 torps each ) could have fired the guts of 750 torpedoes at ranges of 10km or so from the US battleline with a reasonable prospect of surprise on at least some of those occasions such that the mean hit % would have been about 6% - resulting in about 45 Long Lance hits on BBs and CAs. That's a lot of the battleline sunk there.
i share the view, more or less, even though i would have gamed a lot in the IJN admirality's position.
the real and unimaginable blunder of IJ was to plan for literally decades for the deceisive battle only to trash all hopes to actually pull it of by a sneak attack (PH of course), which can only induce caution and a rethinking of doctrine among the USN while understanding said doctrine was the only real chance at suckering a superior force into the planned ambush. iow, they never believed in the deceisve battle and therefore, the range of the Type 93, the extra knots of speed for their BBs achieved through expensive refits, their sub doctrine, pretty much everything they did was a waste of time, to an extent.
what i would have tried:
If it's deceisive, commit all your available forces, everything, if you lose, you're dead anyway, so KB and all batdivs sortie, along with all DDs and CLs you can bring. subs will sortie or be vectored to the expected location of battle (or bases for refueling to gain options, especially high speed transit).
upon locating the enemy fleet, go to great lengths to make it a night engagement. sprinting is one option but it's treacherous as it reveals a desire for battle, better to make it look like a surprise skirmish against a scout force. you can sprint as long as you remain undetected, though. before the meeting, clandestinely detach all DDs with type 93 and all CLs you can spare, and of course bring Oi and Kitakami. approach the enemy line in two divisions, pretend not to notice their presence and let all ships with reloads launch their first salvo with max range setting when in range and once reasonable firing solution has been achieved. next, hope their hydrophones are drowned out by the fleet's own noise and the T93 isn't too loud at slower settings for max range. (iirc 35kts, 20nm)
continue to close until you're either too close for the TF leaders' comfort or you're engaged and launch all the rest, preferably at the high speed setting, if within range at that setting. (10nm at 50kts)
finally feign terror and scatter in seemingly disorganized fashion, a lot depends on conveying that image, even more on concealing your true numbers - it should be noted that close formation keeping and at least some understanding of radar might be required in order to do that. collisions would suck, but it's showtime, use it or lose it. if you score a lot of hits, a carrier strike at dawn will be just what the doctor prescribed, followed by a battle line engagement, maybe at afternoon. a lot would depend on the location of this carnage, if a decent airbase is near, hundred Betties and Nells could provide more torps and may even return and rearm once or twice if the carriers and therefore CAP had been neutralized before.
the most essential component (surprise) could only be achieved by restraint during the opening battles in the DEI, this means no Betties against Force Z and no LLs against ABDA under any circumstance - quite a downside. the worst objection would have to be that such a plan leaves initiative to the enemy. no sortie of the fleet, no deceisive battle and you're stuck with your self imposed rules of engagement.
the historic plan included sacrificing the Kongos to break through the screen - i wonder if that would have even been necessary given the LL's range, it wouldn't have been conducive to surprise, that much is certain. i wonder whether gambling entire nations is acceptable conduct, but suppose great risk is a cheap substitute for great power.
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