RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss

RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (Full Version)

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juliet7bravo -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 12:54:40 AM)
Doesn't matter how much fuel was aboard the tankers or the capital ships, the problem was getting it to the destroyers in a timely manner, under combat conditions. Real life isn't a computer game. In the game, unlike real life, refueling isn't interrupted by weather/sea state, enemy attack, or breaking hoses. Remaining on station would have required extended refueling of the DDs, in lousy weather, at reduced speed, maintaining a steady course, in enemy waters, a long way from home or support, and being unable to conduct air ops. Then starting the process all over again. Doing so would have been fool hardy. Naguma wasn't a fool. The same IJN junior staffers kibitzing to remain on station had no responsibility for the decision, easy to talk smack from the sidelines. More or less the same bunch whose poor advice and excessive confidence contributed greatly to the Japanese debacle at Midway. What'd one of them say; "We goofed"? That was helpful. Easy for us to say in hindsight that Naguma coulda, woulda, shoulda, remained on station. Naguma didn't have the benefit of historical knowledge available to him that we do. The game engine is designed to simulate theatre-wide warfare, not task force operations. If the AI/mechanics allows the Death Star to camp at PH for an extended period...oh well, you wanted "ahistorical", you got it, till your back teeth click. Between humans, a house rule would cover that eventuality.

Mynok -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 3:22:14 AM)
Not knowing where the US CVs were seems the primary consideration for withdrawing.

bradfordkay -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:39:43 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brady quote: ORIGINAL: bradfordkay bklooste wrote: "Ok Some comments to stay at Pearl a week would not add any fuel only if they were moving around Pearl" Actually, to stay off Pearl for a week of air operations would burn naval fuel. Your ships are not drifting with their engines off, they are continuing to sail in order to maintain formation, steerage and at a sufficient speed to perform launching operations. I understand that at least some of the ships were refueled from the tankers before the strike was launched (a day, two days before?). This fuel should be removed from the replenishment TF in order to maintain historical accuracy. Aparently only about 10,000 tons of the Tankers 80,000 ton capacity had be taken from them. Then they should only have about 70,000 of their 80,000 ton capacity on board at game start.

Scott_USN -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:56:48 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: 88l71 quote: ORIGINAL: bjmorgan In my current game, the KB pounded me until December 12 from three hexes away. On that date, it hit me twice more on the way out. That, I think, is excessive. The point is that with the dynamics of the game systems, there was very little that I could do, except sacrifce a few DDs and PTs with hopes of getting a few licky hits on the carriers. (I did, too.) The planes just sat there and got creamed, day after day. No one, not even CPT Rafe McCawley (a.k.a. Ben Affleck in that movie the name of which one should not speak), bothered to take off on a retaliatory mission. It might have been different if I had moved my to CAGs to close to Pearl, but I tried to stay clear of the Death Star. Of course, had I tried to support Pearl, I might have lost them too. I don't care about the above P-40 flying captain, but if you get Kate Beckinsdale to show up, let me know. I am in on that I will shoot you down for that!

herwin -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 8:42:41 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brady quote: ORIGINAL: bradfordkay bklooste wrote: "Ok Some comments to stay at Pearl a week would not add any fuel only if they were moving around Pearl" Actually, to stay off Pearl for a week of air operations would burn naval fuel. Your ships are not drifting with their engines off, they are continuing to sail in order to maintain formation, steerage and at a sufficient speed to perform launching operations. I understand that at least some of the ships were refueled from the tankers before the strike was launched (a day, two days before?). This fuel should be removed from the replenishment TF in order to maintain historical accuracy. Aparently only about 10,000 tons of the Tankers 80,000 ton capacity had be taken from them. About 13000+ tons of fuel transferred prior to the attack run, 13500 afterwards, refueling during and after the return trip was about 34000 tons, total fuel used was about 64000 tons. Kaga, Zuikaku, and Shokaku made the trip without refuelling; the rest refuelled on a regular basis. Fleet bunkerage capacity was 56000+ tons, with another 3000 tons of fuel in drums etc. If Halsey had caught the replen TF on the 7th, there was enough fuel left to make Truk if the destroyers were refuelled from the heavy ships (an ad-hoc manoeuvre in the IJN). The destroyers used 56% of their fuel bunkerage and the cruisers, Akagi, Soryu, and Hiryu used about 35% of their fuel bunkerage for the attack run.

spence -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 11:56:24 AM)
quote: uote: ORIGINAL: Brady quote: ORIGINAL: bradfordkay bklooste wrote: "Ok Some comments to stay at Pearl a week would not add any fuel only if they were moving around Pearl" Actually, to stay off Pearl for a week of air operations would burn naval fuel. Your ships are not drifting with their engines off, they are continuing to sail in order to maintain formation, steerage and at a sufficient speed to perform launching operations. I understand that at least some of the ships were refueled from the tankers before the strike was launched (a day, two days before?). This fuel should be removed from the replenishment TF in order to maintain historical accuracy. Aparently only about 10,000 tons of the Tankers 80,000 ton capacity had be taken from them. Then they should only have about 70,000 of their 80,000 ton capacity on board at game start. __________ Unsubstantiated assertions are not quite so apparent to many.

herwin -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 12:13:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: spence quote: uote: ORIGINAL: Brady quote: ORIGINAL: bradfordkay bklooste wrote: "Ok Some comments to stay at Pearl a week would not add any fuel only if they were moving around Pearl" Actually, to stay off Pearl for a week of air operations would burn naval fuel. Your ships are not drifting with their engines off, they are continuing to sail in order to maintain formation, steerage and at a sufficient speed to perform launching operations. I understand that at least some of the ships were refueled from the tankers before the strike was launched (a day, two days before?). This fuel should be removed from the replenishment TF in order to maintain historical accuracy. Aparently only about 10,000 tons of the Tankers 80,000 ton capacity had be taken from them. Then they should only have about 70,000 of their 80,000 ton capacity on board at game start. __________ Unsubstantiated assertions are not quite so apparent to many. Come again? Do you want to see the spreadsheet analysis? Sources include Conways and various war diaries.

treespider -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 1:12:52 PM)
Actually there would be a relatively simple way to mod this....with one thing having to be accepted by the players...and it could only be used in PBeM. The editor allows the elimination of the Magic Move. Simply eliminate Magic Moves for all of the Japanese TF using the scenario editor. Reset the scenario start to IIRC November 26 or 29th the date KB departs from anchorage... Allied player not allowed to attack Japanese TFs unless they appear within 5 hexes of Phillippines, DEI base or Malaya Coast. Force Z starts at Singapore. Some of the other Allied TF would have to be repositioned as well. No Allied moves allowed outside of China....other than the TF that are currently enroute to destination (which would have slightly different AT-start positions). Japanese units not allowed to enter Thailand or HK until Dec 7th. Only drawback is their is no night phase on Dec 7th. In stock/CHS I tried this and the movement happened perfectly with the exception of the Magic Move. The Japanese required refueling IIRC about three times. Now that the Magic Move has been eliminated ...this becomes a viable Mod scenario...with the acceptance that Dec 7th will be slightly abbreviated.

Mike Scholl -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 3:30:42 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: herwin quote: ORIGINAL: spence Unsubstantiated assertions are not quite so apparent to many. Come again? Do you want to see the spreadsheet analysis? Sources include Conways and various war diaries. I think he was talking about Brady's assertions. [;)]

Mark Weston -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 3:49:02 PM)
herwin's detailed analysis is really interesting, especially to someone like me who doesn't have the detailed historical background. But I did notice that a lot of the limitations he mentioned are not physical but doctrinal; they arise from assumptions about the safety-margins needed in terms of time, speed, distance etc. If you build in enough safety-margins that your operational goal becomes logistically impossible, then obviously you re-examine them and decide where you can accept greater risk in order to make the logistics work. Then you evaluate the risks and decide whether they're justified by the reward. For example, the Japanese could push the replenishment group closer to PH (risking detection but counting on the IJN's first airfield strikes to reduce the likelihood of attack). Or they could rotate half their destroyers out to refuel during each day's air ops (because a carrier running at 25+ knots really is close to an impossible shot for any but the luckiest submerged sub). The game puts the player in the (obviously unhistorical) position of being Supreme Commander of Everything. But given that, I really think it's the player's right to decide to accept higher risks not taken by his historical counter-parts in order to generate greater returns. The game should limit actions that were physically impossible or outside the capability of the personel, but shouldn't straitjacket the player with someone else's risk/benefit calculations. And it's not as if a sustained attack on PH should make the game unplayable for the allied side. Every day the Japanese player hangs around atriting his air group on the PH defences he's giving the allied player chances to pull off a Midway six months early.

Brady -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:00:31 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: herwin About 13000+ tons of fuel transferred prior to the attack run, 13500 afterwards, refueling during and after the return trip was about 34000 tons, total fuel used was about 64000 tons. Kaga, Zuikaku, and Shokaku made the trip without refuelling; the rest refuelled on a regular basis. Fleet bunkerage capacity was 56000+ tons, with another 3000 tons of fuel in drums etc. If Halsey had caught the replen TF on the 7th, there was enough fuel left to make Truk if the destroyers were refuelled from the heavy ships (an ad-hoc manoeuvre in the IJN). The destroyers used 56% of their fuel bunkerage and the cruisers, Akagi, Soryu, and Hiryu used about 35% of their fuel bunkerage for the attack run. What glen offered up in our dischion of this subject: So to distill it down, to the simplest of terms, when KB and their atendent tankers returned home they had used slightly less than half the fuel they had started with.(me) That is my guess, yes – about 60,000 tons remaining of about 125,000. That does not include the Wake Island diversion, but assumes all units return to Japan. Kido Butai’s logistic leash was its bombs and avgas, not fuel. (glenn) Which means the Tankers at Games start would still be prety much full. And their would be plenty of fuel again for a few days at Pearl.

Gilbert -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:06:23 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brady What glen offered up in our dischion of this subject: So to distill it down, to the simplest of terms, when KB and their atendent tankers returned home they had used slightly less than half the fuel they had started with.(me) That is my guess, yes – about 60,000 tons remaining of about 125,000. That does not include the Wake Island diversion, but assumes all units return to Japan. Note that Yamamoto had more tankers with the Main Body, and I think the Midway attack unit had one too. Kido Butai’s logistic leash was its bombs and avgas, not fuel. (glenn) Which means the Tankers at Games start would still be prety much full. And their would be plenty of fuel again for a few days at Pearl. quote: Sorry Brady, but Glen was thinking about MI, not PH, when he wrote about Yamamoto and the Main Body. For PH, no tankers remained with Kido Butai for the last leg of the operation conducted at a battle speed of 24 knts which did not allow them to keep up with KB. in that stage they remained behind screened by two DDs. Cheers Gilbert

herwin -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:08:11 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brady quote: ORIGINAL: herwin About 13000+ tons of fuel transferred prior to the attack run, 13500 afterwards, refueling during and after the return trip was about 34000 tons, total fuel used was about 64000 tons. Kaga, Zuikaku, and Shokaku made the trip without refuelling; the rest refuelled on a regular basis. Fleet bunkerage capacity was 56000+ tons, with another 3000 tons of fuel in drums etc. If Halsey had caught the replen TF on the 7th, there was enough fuel left to make Truk if the destroyers were refuelled from the heavy ships (an ad-hoc manoeuvre in the IJN). The destroyers used 56% of their fuel bunkerage and the cruisers, Akagi, Soryu, and Hiryu used about 35% of their fuel bunkerage for the attack run. What glen offered up in our dischion of this subject: So to distill it down, to the simplest of terms, when KB and their atendent tankers returned home they had used slightly less than half the fuel they had started with.(me) That is my guess, yes – about 60,000 tons remaining of about 125,000. That does not include the Wake Island diversion, but assumes all units return to Japan. Kido Butai’s logistic leash was its bombs and avgas, not fuel. (glenn) Which means the Tankers at Games start would still be prety much full. And their would be plenty of fuel again for a few days at Pearl. The leash was how far it could sail at 24 knots without refuelling.

Brady -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:14:13 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: herwin The leash was how far it could sail at 24 knots without refuelling. Your refering to (?) : The destroyers also needed to make a 48hr run at 24-28kt to enter and clear the battle zone, but Nagumo was capable of resupplying these from his battleships and carriers.

herwin -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:26:23 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brady quote: ORIGINAL: herwin The leash was how far it could sail at 24 knots without refuelling. Your refering to (?) : The destroyers also needed to make a 48hr run at 24-28kt to enter and clear the battle zone, but Nagumo was capable of resupplying these from his battleships and carriers. Under air, naval, and submarine attack?

Vladd -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:30:12 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: herwin quote: ORIGINAL: Brady [Aparently only about 10,000 tons of the Tankers 80,000 ton capacity had be taken from them. About 13000+ tons of fuel transferred prior to the attack run, 13500 afterwards, refueling during and after the return trip was about 34000 tons, total fuel used was about 64000 tons. Kaga, Zuikaku, and Shokaku made the trip without refuelling; the rest refuelled on a regular basis. Fleet bunkerage capacity was 56000+ tons, with another 3000 tons of fuel in drums etc. If Halsey had caught the replen TF on the 7th, there was enough fuel left to make Truk if the destroyers were refuelled from the heavy ships (an ad-hoc manoeuvre in the IJN). The destroyers used 56% of their fuel bunkerage and the cruisers, Akagi, Soryu, and Hiryu used about 35% of their fuel bunkerage for the attack run. Given 3 CVs did not refuel at all, I'd be interested to know how many times did the shortest-legged CV Soryu, replinished 100% of her total bunkerage? Or indeed how refuelling broke down per ship. 64000 tons drawn from the tankers (if I'm reading that right) seems quite a lot. The problem is strong anectdotal evidence from Japanese sources would suggest that quantity of fuel carried was not a big problem for staying a few days longer. Yamaguchi, Fuchida and Genda all wanted and recommended further strikes or a hunt for the US carriers - I'd love to know what they were all thinking of if the fuel margin precluded it. Prange relates the Combined Fleet staff urged further action also, and Ugaki recorded his opinion as being "Had I been the C-in-C of the task force...I would have firmly resolved to continue the attack strongly...until Pearl Harbour was completely destroyed." Some Japanese pilots apparantly were dismayed no further strikes would be launched - but Nagumo's own reasons for withdrawing (as relayed to his own fliers by Genda) did not mention fuel as a factor at all. Which seems most odd if the margins were that tight. This is not to downplay the real and serious practical difficulties of underway refuelling in a battle zone, with potentially stormy seas to contend with also. However, in the absence of original Japanese data, I'm inclined to take the options considered at the time, by First Air Fleet and Combined Fleet staff, as viable ones.

Brady -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 4:42:41 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: herwin Under air, naval, and submarine attack? As noted above, they were not nescessarly subject to any of these threats, real or preceaved, they also did not have to sail at that spead either the entire time(During the in and out dash phase). We know That Historicaly that when they got home they had as noted above half (about) the fuel they started with, which leaves a very wide margine on the scean to alow for operations (hypothetical). ........ Game- in the game refuling is alowed when ever a player wants to alow it, just by clicking the button, weather this should be so is a subject for another time I think, but it is and for all sides. All sides also start with their ships to full as well imo, but if the topic of this debate is weahter or not KB had Historicaly enough fuel on hand to conduct a three day stay at pearl... I think its prety clear they did.

pad152 -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 5:10:03 PM)
I think the idea of the Japanese having enough fuel to stick around Pearl for a week is just bogus! If the Japanese had that much fuel, they could have hit Pearl then gone and hit the aircraft factories around Seattle or the west coast, or going hunting for the US carriers, which they couldn't.

juliet7bravo -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 5:16:31 PM)
"I think its prety clear they did." "On hand", is NOT the same as "in the destroyers bunkers, ready to be burned". Historically, they had enough fuel, in the capital ships, to remain on station. Historically, the DDs had to be refueled multiple times. Whether they could have successfully refueled the DDs from the capital ships (a time consuming process under any circumstances) after launching the PH attack is a completely different question. Then you'd have to determine whether or not their location would have been discovered by the search planes PH sent out. Whether PH could have launched airstrikes. Whether any subs could have been vectored to their location. Whether the USN CVs could have reached an attack point. Whether the naval units at PH would have sortied and tried to reach the Japanese location. If any (or all) of these things happened, it would have interrupted the refueling process, quite possibly leaving the DDs without enough fuel to get home or do any combat manuevering. With the Japanese being caught at low speed, maintaining a steady course, unable to conduct air ops, and with their DDs tethered to their capital ships.

Vladd -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 5:18:41 PM)
But, say, 3 or even 4 days pad? What were the Japanese staff officers talking about if not?

Mark Weston -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 5:20:00 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: pad152 I think the idea of the Japanese having enough fuel to stick around Pearl for a week is just bogus! If the Japanese had that much fuel, they could have hit Pearl then gone and hit the aircraft factories around Seattle or the west coast, or going hunting for the US carriers, which they couldn't. That's a pretty classic circular argument you've got there. Is it because they couldn't, or because they didn't want to risk it?

Nikademus -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 5:23:28 PM)
Why didn't i think of that? [:)] Its not like KB isn't needed elsewhere. Lets go to San Fran!

denisonh -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 5:25:04 PM)
The issue is less about the fuel (enough for at least 3 days or so depending on the level of risk taken for refuleing ops and return home), it is about perfect intellegence and hindsight which Nagumo did not have the benefit like WitP AE players. Japanese players KNOW what is at PH, where the American Carriers are, how effective (or ineffective) the Allies follow on response is, and how devestatingly effective the PH attack was/will be. The demons that Nagumo saw due to a huge black hole of knowledge on US dispositions and effectiveness, as well as limited experience with CV operational effectiveness as a whole (effective CV ops just really beginning in terms of operations, battle damage, etc..) forced him to protect Japan's CV force a long way from home (that if significantly damaged would have to be scuttled most likely). Players can hang around and pummell PH without much risk knowing so many things with a level of surety.

treespider -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 6:00:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Nikademus Why didn't i think of that? [:)] Its not like KB isn't needed elsewhere. Lets go to San Fran! Let's!! I hear they've got some D-licious sourdough bread and chocolate....

Kull -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 6:55:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: JuanG You can set up partial fuel/endurance values for ships in the editor, yes. You cannot set up a tanker with a partial fuel load however - which is what would be needed here. This could be simulated rather easily. (Caveat - In the following analysis I don't have the real figures and am just making up numbers for the purpose of discussion): Assume the Japanese Replenishment force contained 10 tankers, each carrying 10,000 lbs of fuel for a total of 100,000. If the "real" fuel on hand situation was 50,000 at the start of the 12/7 operation, simply set up the 10 ship TF so it contains 5 empty tankers and 5 full ones. The game effect will mimic RL in that all ten tankers are accounted for, AND the total available fuel is at the historical level. Edit: Or use a somewhat "gamey" technique. Set the fuel capacity of all 10 tankers to 5000 each, and give them a 12/8/41 "upgrade" which jumps the capacity to 10,000 the next time they are in port. (Of course, this assumes there are upgrades which do nothing other than adjust carrying capacity.) Reducing the KB "hang-around time" could be done by making adjustments to the ammunition loads - i.e. give the carriers only enough for about 4-5 strikes - if all are used the carriers have zero left in reserve to counter an Allied Carrier intervention. Even the most gung-ho of Nagumo's advisors weren't advocating hanging around Pearl until the 12th, and thus it really shouldn't be possible to do that.

herwin -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 6:59:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brady quote: ORIGINAL: herwin Under air, naval, and submarine attack? As noted above, they were not nescessarly subject to any of these threats, real or preceaved, they also did not have to sail at that spead either the entire time(During the in and out dash phase). We know That Historicaly that when they got home they had as noted above half (about) the fuel they started with, which leaves a very wide margine on the scean to alow for operations (hypothetical). ........ Game- in the game refuling is alowed when ever a player wants to alow it, just by clicking the button, weather this should be so is a subject for another time I think, but it is and for all sides. All sides also start with their ships to full as well imo, but if the topic of this debate is weahter or not KB had Historicaly enough fuel on hand to conduct a three day stay at pearl... I think its prety clear they did. This might help. B3300 is the tons burnt during each of the cruises (3300 nm). B2800 is the tons burnt during the operations around Pearl Harbour (1000 NM, but 2800 endurance). Apologies for the misnamed BB and the misspelling of bunkerage. This spreadsheet was not intended for public dissemination. [image]local://upfiles/12135/943735ECF7D24123B334110F836932A8.jpg[/image]

ltfightr -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 7:13:24 PM)
I agree with denisonh the real story is not that what the AI or PBEM players are doing, its that they are able to do so with the unquestioned knowledge of hindsight. The knowledge of where things are and how heavily or lightly defended a target is. Admirals and Generals are by nature somewhat conservitive. The fate of their nation often rest on the decisions they make. We loose some pixels and bytes. Real Admirals loose ships, men, and blood.

herwin -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 7:24:27 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ltfightr I agree with denisonh the real story is not that what the AI or PBEM players are doing, its that they are able to do so with the unquestioned knowledge of hindsight. The knowledge of where things are and how heavily or lightly defended a target is. Admirals and Generals are by nature somewhat conservitive. The fate of their nation often rest on the decisions they make. We loose some pixels and bytes. Real Admirals loose ships, men, and blood. Sorry about being grumbly. I try to ride my bicycle to work, but on Wednesday I had a head-on collision with a car that was being driven by a kid on the wrong side of the road. The bike is in the shop, and I'm aching.

Sonny II -> RE: KB Fuel Level Too High - Discuss (8/14/2009 8:26:17 PM)
quote: The bike is in the shop, and I'm aching. Better than the other way round!

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