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Canoerebel -> RE: Artillery Death Stars Continue Post Patch Two (12/15/2009 1:18:41 AM)
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65 squads is a heck of alot of destruction in a single day of bombardment (not combat). The Chinese only get 200 squads per month. If you lose 65 in one day in one hex, math tells you you're in a serious net loss situation.
So, what happened at Sian? A little more than a week ago, Sian was the bastion on the north line of the Chinese MLR. I had 4,000 AV there behind four forts. My troops were well-rested, high morale (most at 99%), and high experience (50-55%). Supplies were low due to the usual problem in China exacerbated by the strategic bombing campaign against my industry.
Then a Japanese army arrived - 4000 AV with 7 artillery units (three mortar, three medium FA, one heavy FA). You'd think with 4,000 AV against 4,000 AV a long siege would be in order. You'd also think that given the quagmire nature of the real war in China that a long siege would be in line with what happened historically.
Instead, the Japanese blasted through Sian easily. For all of us playing AE, this should be sobering unless my game is somehow an anomaly.
How did Miller do it? Well, it took him about 8 days as follows:
Days 1 & 2 - back-to-back bombardments already summarized above (6,223 casualties day one, 1,718 day two; Chinese AV drops from 4,000 to 3,600).
Days 3 & 4: Japanese deliberate attack on day 3 comes off at 1:2, forts remain 4, Japanese suffer 6,397 casualties to 14,378 for the Chinese (110 squads destroyed, making a total of something like 200 in three days in this one hex). The Japanese are the attackers but suffer less than half the casualties. The Japanese rest on the 4th day.
Days 5 & 6: Japanese bombard inflicting 2,503 casualties (75 squads destroyed) day 5 and 1,519 on day 6 (36 squads destroyed).
Days 7 & 8: Japanese deliberate attack at 2:1 drops forts to 3 and inflicted 7,584 casualties on the Japanese (who lose a horrific 7 squads) to 5,897 for the Chinese (who lose 33 squads). On Day 8, a 4:1 attack drops forts to 2 and inflicted 5,156 on the Japanese and 6,540 on the Chinese.
Since the Japanese have acheived 4:1 odds and halved the fortification level, I have no choice but to withdraw from Sian. So, in less than ten days, the Japanese easily take a heavily defended Chinese fort and suffer nearly no casualties in doing so. Meanwhile, the Chinese army is close to being a wreck and will be if the Japanese attack next turn before the Chinese can leave the hex.
Now that Sian has fallen the Allies have lost essentially all of northern China. The next stand will be in the mountains, then Kienko, then Chungking.
While 65 squads lost in a single day to a Japanese bombardment may not seem horrendous in isolation, when that piece is added to the rest of the puzzle it helps reveal the awfully skewed situation in China.
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