Help understand this outcome (Full Version)

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AztekII -> Help understand this outcome (2/20/2010 6:13:55 PM)

I am playing as Japan and the allies have sent a huge force to Ambon on a Bombardment mission. There are two phases of combat. His force finds a hapless SNLF at sea in the hex and then the covering force for the base.

The outcome is a bit of a Japanese victory but I am not clear as to why. I was outnumbered drastically. Did any of the follwong factors contribute:

1) He was set to Bombard.

2) He ran into another transport fleet first

3) He had a mix of Dutch,British and US ships

4) He had a lot of ships.

5) I had a minefieild in the hex which actually sunk 2 destroyers but after the engagement.

Maybe it was just luck or did any of the above factors come into play?

Night Time Surface Combat, near Ambon at 76,109, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
TB Kiji, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
PB Seikai Maru, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
xAK Azumasan Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Azuma Maru, Shell hits 12, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Myoko Maru, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
BB Prince of Wales
BC Repulse, Shell hits 1
CL Java
CL De Ruyter
CL Tromp
CL Danae
CL Dragon
CL Durban
CL Boise
DD Parrott
DD Stewart
DD Vampire
DD Vendetta
DD Banckert
DD Van Nes
DD Evertsen
DD Kortenaer
DD Piet Hein
DD Van Ghent
DD Tenedos
DD Electra
DD Express

Japanese ground losses:
381 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)



Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!
Japanese TF suspends loading operations and begins to get underway
Reduced sighting due to 25% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 25% moonlight: 7,000 yards
Range closes to 16,000 yards...
Range closes to 11,000 yards...
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 6,000 yards
TB Kiji engages BB Prince of Wales at 6,000 yards
BC Repulse engages PB Seikai Maru at 6,000 yards
CL Boise engages xAK Myoko Maru at 6,000 yards
BC Repulse engages xAK Azuma Maru at 6,000 yards
CL Dragon engages TB Kiji at 6,000 yards
DD Van Nes engages xAK Myoko Maru at 6,000 yards
BC Repulse engages TB Kiji at 6,000 yards
BC Repulse engages PB Seikai Maru at 6,000 yards
DD Van Nes engages xAK Azuma Maru at 6,000 yards
CL Dragon engages TB Kiji at 6,000 yards
CL Danae engages TB Kiji at 6,000 yards
xAK Myoko Maru sunk by DD Electra at 6,000 yards
DD Banckert engages xAK Azuma Maru at 6,000 yards
DD Vendetta engages xAK Azuma Maru at 6,000 yards
Range closes to 4,000 yards
xAK Azuma Maru sunk by BB Prince of Wales at 4,000 yards
BC Repulse engages PB Seikai Maru at 4,000 yards
CL Durban engages TB Kiji at 4,000 yards
TB Kiji sunk by CL De Ruyter at 4,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
PB Seikai Maru sunk by BB Prince of Wales at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 4,000 yards
BB Prince of Wales engages xAK Azumasan Maru at 4,000 yards
xAK Azumasan Maru sunk by DD Vampire at 4,000 yards
xAK Azumasan Maru sunk by DD Vampire at 4,000 yards
Combat ends with last Japanese ship sunk...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Ambon at 76,109, Range 3,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
CA Haguro, Shell hits 16, heavy fires
CL Nagara, Shell hits 1
DD Yamakaze, Shell hits 5
DD Kawakaze, Shell hits 1
DD Umikaze, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Suzukaze, Shell hits 1
DD Shiokaze, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
BB Prince of Wales, Shell hits 15, on fire
BC Repulse, Shell hits 53, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Java, Shell hits 1
CL De Ruyter, Shell hits 1, on fire
CL Tromp, Shell hits 3, on fire
CL Danae, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Dragon, Shell hits 6, heavy fires
CL Durban, Shell hits 17, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Boise
DD Parrott
DD Stewart
DD Vampire
DD Vendetta, Shell hits 1
DD Banckert, Shell hits 1
DD Van Nes, Shell hits 1
DD Evertsen
DD Kortenaer, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Piet Hein, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Van Ghent
DD Tenedos, heavy damage
DD Electra
DD Express, Shell hits 1



Reduced sighting due to 25% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 25% moonlight: 4,000 yards
Range closes to 15,000 yards...
Range closes to 9,000 yards...
Range closes to 5,000 yards...
Range closes to 3,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 3,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 3,000 yards
CL Nagara engages BC Repulse at 3,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages CL Boise at 3,000 yards
DD Umikaze engages BC Repulse at 3,000 yards
CL Danae engages CA Haguro at 3,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages BC Repulse at 3,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL De Ruyter at 3,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Piet Hein at 3,000 yards
DD Kortenaer engages DD Umikaze at 3,000 yards
DD Umikaze engages DD Evertsen at 3,000 yards
DD Umikaze engages DD Vendetta at 3,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Stewart at 3,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages DD Parrott at 3,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CA Haguro at 3,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CA Haguro at 3,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages DD Piet Hein at 3,000 yards
DD Suzukaze engages DD Kortenaer at 3,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Dragon at 3,000 yards
DD Kawakaze engages DD Vendetta at 3,000 yards
CL Tromp engages CA Haguro at 3,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Tenedos at 3,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages DD Parrott at 3,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages BB Prince of Wales at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages BC Repulse at 2,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages DD Vendetta at 2,000 yards
CL Durban engages CL Nagara at 2,000 yards
DD Umikaze sunk by CL Dragon at 2,000 yards
DD Kortenaer sunk by DD Kawakaze at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Tromp at 2,000 yards
DD Stewart engages DD Kawakaze at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages BB Prince of Wales at 2,000 yards
CL Nagara engages BC Repulse at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Boise at 2,000 yards
DD Evertsen engages DD Suzukaze at 2,000 yards
DD Kawakaze engages DD Piet Hein at 2,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Parrott at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Java at 2,000 yards
DD Kawakaze engages DD Electra at 2,000 yards
DD Stewart engages DD Yamakaze at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 3,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CA Haguro at 3,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CL Nagara at 3,000 yards
CL Nagara engages CL Boise at 3,000 yards
DD Piet Hein engages DD Kawakaze at 3,000 yards
DD Piet Hein engages DD Yamakaze at 3,000 yards
DD Kawakaze engages DD Piet Hein at 3,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages DD Van Nes at 3,000 yards
DD Banckert engages DD Suzukaze at 3,000 yards
DD Vendetta engages DD Shiokaze at 3,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages DD Stewart at 3,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages BC Repulse at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Boise at 2,000 yards
CL Durban sunk by CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
CL Dragon engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Piet Hein at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL De Ruyter at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 4,000 yards
BB Prince of Wales engages CA Haguro at 4,000 yards
CL Nagara engages BC Repulse at 4,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages DD Parrott at 4,000 yards
DD Suzukaze engages DD Evertsen at 4,000 yards
DD Kawakaze engages DD Piet Hein at 4,000 yards
DD Piet Hein engages DD Yamakaze at 4,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Van Ghent at 4,000 yards
CA Haguro engages BB Prince of Wales at 4,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CA Haguro at 4,000 yards
DD Piet Hein engages DD Shiokaze at 4,000 yards
DD Suzukaze engages CL Dragon at 4,000 yards
CL Tromp engages CA Haguro at 4,000 yards
CL Nagara engages CL De Ruyter at 4,000 yards
CL Java engages CA Haguro at 4,000 yards
DD Tenedos engages DD Suzukaze at 4,000 yards
DD Van Nes engages DD Suzukaze at 4,000 yards
DD Vendetta engages DD Kawakaze at 4,000 yards
DD Shiokaze engages DD Vampire at 4,000 yards
DD Parrott engages DD Suzukaze at 4,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
BB Prince of Wales engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Boise at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Dragon at 2,000 yards
DD Vendetta engages DD Kawakaze at 2,000 yards
CL De Ruyter engages DD Yamakaze at 2,000 yards
CA Haguro engages CL Java at 2,000 yards
DD Shiokaze sunk by DD Express at 2,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Piet Hein at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 3,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CA Haguro at 3,000 yards
CL Nagara engages BC Repulse at 3,000 yards
CL Boise engages DD Suzukaze at 3,000 yards
DD Piet Hein engages DD Kawakaze at 3,000 yards
CL Tromp engages CA Haguro at 3,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Tenedos at 3,000 yards
DD Van Nes engages DD Yamakaze at 3,000 yards
DD Suzukaze engages DD Vendetta at 3,000 yards
CL Nagara engages BC Repulse at 3,000 yards
CL Boise engages DD Suzukaze at 3,000 yards
CL Dragon engages DD Kawakaze at 3,000 yards
CL Tromp engages CA Haguro at 3,000 yards
DD Yamakaze engages DD Tenedos at 3,000 yards
DD Suzukaze engages DD Piet Hein at 3,000 yards
DD Kawakaze engages DD Vampire at 3,000 yards
Range closes to 2,000 yards
BB Prince of Wales engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
BC Repulse engages CL Nagara at 2,000 yards
CL Boise engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
CL Dragon engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
CL Tromp engages DD Yamakaze at 2,000 yards
DD Kawakaze engages DD Express at 2,000 yards
DD Kawakaze engages DD Van Ghent at 2,000 yards
Mori, Tokuji orders Japanese TF to disengage
BB Prince of Wales engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
CL Nagara engages BB Prince of Wales at 2,000 yards
DD Suzukaze engages DD Piet Hein at 2,000 yards
CL Tromp engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
CL De Ruyter engages CA Haguro at 2,000 yards
DD Express engages DD Yamakaze at 2,000 yards
DD Evertsen engages DD Suzukaze at 2,000 yards
DD Van Nes engages DD Suzukaze at 2,000 yards
Range increases to 8,000 yards
DD Van Nes collides with DD Tenedos at 76 , 109
BB Prince of Wales engages CA Haguro at 8,000 yards
CL Boise engages CA Haguro at 8,000 yards
DD Express engages DD Suzukaze at 8,000 yards
CL Tromp engages CA Haguro at 8,000 yards
DD Banckert engages DD Yamakaze at 8,000 yards
DD Suzukaze engages DD Van Nes at 8,000 yards
Task forces break off.




P.Hausser -> RE: Help understand this outcome (2/20/2010 6:22:13 PM)

I don't see anything strange with the results...  what specifically are you commenting on ?




ckk -> RE: Help understand this outcome (2/20/2010 7:17:32 PM)

1. Its early and IJN has a large advantage at this time in night fighting
2. no radar used so another ad to IJN
3. BB and BC seem to have expended a lot of large ammo in 1st engagenent as did ally dd's their torpedo's.
4 really bad die rolls
5
Bombardment tf should schange to surface combat when it encounters another fleet automatically




AztekII -> RE: Help understand this outcome (2/20/2010 7:56:36 PM)

He outnumbered me greatly and had much heavier ships overall yet he lost more ships then I.

It seemed like an odd result and I was looking for what conditions may have led to such a strange outcome. I had my ideas which I listed but wanted to get some feedback from the community.




BletchleyGeek -> RE: Help understand this outcome (2/20/2010 8:55:15 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ckk
2. no radar used so another ad to IJN


Repulse and PoW are both radar-equipped in December 1941 [8D]

EDIT: Note the difference in the number of hits achieved by the IJN and those obtained by the RN. Assuming that surface combat engine doesn't simulate events such as a ship "lighting up" due to fires on it and becoming sort of homing beacon for shells - which well might be the way the simulation works - that points to the extremely high night fighting skills of the IJN. So I would say that 1 > 2 (at least in this thread).




crsutton -> RE: Help understand this outcome (2/20/2010 9:17:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: AztekII

He outnumbered me greatly and had much heavier ships overall yet he lost more ships then I.

It seemed like an odd result and I was looking for what conditions may have led to such a strange outcome. I had my ideas which I listed but wanted to get some feedback from the community.



No, not odd. The Allied surface TF was too large to control in a night action. Oversized TFs can bring about nasty results. I find it is more effective to work in 6-10 ship task forces-like the Japanese TF in this example. Also, the ships engaged at 3,000 yards. This is a range that favors small ships with torpedoes. A perfect set up for disaster.




sfbaytf -> RE: Help understand this outcome (2/20/2010 9:31:05 PM)

I agree with crsutton. More is not always better. Also having BB's with carrier task forces is fine for AA firepower, but if your carrier TF gets engaged in a surface duel, having a BB or CA will probably not prevent your carriers from getting pummled by surface guns.




ckk -> RE: Help understand this outcome (2/20/2010 9:52:49 PM)

Agreed that they had radar, but in this case lookouts "spotting" at 3000 yds caused combat. No mention of "detecting" at a a farther out range. Can only assume that POW and Repulse while having the radar of the time did not make good use of it or they would never have closed within a CA' s 8 inch guns range [;)]

Not to mention the IJN torpedo factor at that range




FOW -> RE: Help understand this outcome (2/21/2010 10:37:28 AM)

As recent posters mentioned, large SC TFs are unwieldy and probably (IMHO) suffer some form of coordination penalty in night actions (not all ships in position to actively participate in the action). I stick to 10-12 ships max for any SC TF. TF Commander does have an impact on a TFs performance so if the Allied player did nothing about the commander they let their side down.

In your example above, as an allied player I would have composed my TFs as:

1. an SC TF of the Dutch DLs and DDs under Adm Doorman as TF Commander
2, a Bomb TF of the Brit and US ships

The Dutch and US ships do not have very good night crew skills, compared to IJN and RN. The SC TF 'should' go in first and soak up the fire from the IJN TFs and would no doubt loose several ships. When the Bomb TF arrives the IJN TF would have less ammo and Op points so should achieve a more balanced result.
Whatever would have transpired a Bomb TF will always be succeptable to more damage from an SC TF because thats the way it's always worked from WITP days.




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